What Caused the Rise and Fall of California?

Infohawk

Lifer
Jan 12, 2002
17,844
1
0
My opinion:

The rise of California was due to a massive influx of already-Americanized migrants from the East Coast and Midwest in the middle 20th century. Some dustbowl migrants aside, many came with money in their pockets. They did not come out of desperation.

What these people came for was primarily the suburban dream. Orange and Marin counties are the northern and southern models of what people were looking for. People did not come to be part of a multiracial society, although most probably didn't think about the issue.

So here you have an affluent or middle class influx of people who contribute significantly to the tax base. Flush with money, the state is able to educate its citizens in ways the rest of the world could only dream of: the University of California system. Not only was California economically rich, but it had cultural centers in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Also, California didn't have the same level of upper-class entrenchment as the east coast. If you had it in you, you could really make your dreams come true. People were happy with California.

Beginning in the 1970s, we begin to see a massive migration of poor central americans. These people were desperate. They did not have money in their pockets or advanced skills. These immigrants aren't to blame; the federal government is. They allowed the migration and in some cases caused it with hawkish anti-communist foreign policy in central America.

At first it wasn't too big of a deal. More people simply left Los Angeles County and went to Orange County instead. (We also got burritos and cheaper produce.) Although these migrants usually found work, the menial work they did rarely compensated for the world-class public benefits that California was offering. We are seeing a continued third-world-ization of California. Very rich people on the top and very poor people in slums on the bottom.

The migration has become so pronounced that there has been white flight to Colorado and Arizona. A large part of California's tax base has gone with them. California doesn't have the money to provide world-class benefits anymore. People don't have benefits or the suburban dream either. People are unhappy with California.

It is sad that in America's effort to defeat communism, it indirectly caused the loss of one of its jewels, California of the 50's and 60's.

So what's the good news? California is now a cultural center in a different way. It is dynamic in a different way. Urban Los Angeles and urban San Francisco are continuing to push forward. They're not for everyone, especially those that moved to Colorado and Arizona, but it isn't just homeless people and gangs either. If California gets real that it can't offer the same per-person benefits that it once did, it can still grow and be vibrant in a new way.

Edit: What's your theory?
 
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JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
My response to your "analysis": lol

These are the causes:

california-budget.png


ca-budget-3.png
 
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StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Seems very plausible. Being less myopic is good so you go back some decades instead of blaming, for example, on a current governor or something.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,397
8,562
126
why have expenditures gone up 47% in the last 5 years?
 

Zedtom

Platinum Member
Nov 23, 2001
2,146
0
0
The observations you make are interesting because the mindset of the country is heavily influenced by the California model. The most copied and to our own detriment is the failed philosophy that growth pays for itself. This is the refrain that developers use throughout the country to secure tax breaks to build new subdivisions and contribute to urban sprawl. The local government puts in water and sewer lines, erects street lights and paves new roads. Then they sit back and wait for the houses to be built and the occupants to start contributing to the tax revenue stream.

This may have worked decades ago, but now it is what makes big cities all look like Los Angeles wannabes.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
The observations you make are interesting because the mindset of the country is heavily influenced by the California model. The most copied and to our own detriment is the failed philosophy that growth pays for itself. This is the refrain that developers use throughout the country to secure tax breaks to build new subdivisions and contribute to urban sprawl. The local government puts in water and sewer lines, erects street lights and paves new roads. Then they sit back and wait for the houses to be built and the occupants to start contributing to the tax revenue stream.

This may have worked decades ago, but now it is what makes big cities all look like Los Angeles wannabes.

I blame Kevin Costner.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,153
0
0
People are forgetting that California was the epicenter of the information age, and it produced a huge economic boom here, and that this happened well after scads of illegals started pouring in. California has a fiscal crisis right now, and has some longer term fiscal problems that need to be solved. However, those problems are complex and are not down to one particular variable.

- wolf
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,705
6,261
126
Never ending Deficit Spending and the recent Economic Downturn. The Deficit is exacerbated in California due to some very poorly designed Proposition and Tax Laws which gives the Populace the ability to make Law all kinds of Programs, but the Legislators have an almost impossible ability to raise Taxes to Fund those Programs. The only solution to that conundrum is to Borrow $.

Such an arrangement is destined for Failure.
 

DietDrThunder

Platinum Member
Apr 6, 2001
2,262
326
126
I have to add that California is not alone. Texas will be the next California. Texas gained a huge population migration from Lousianna after Hurricane Katrina that have not returned to their home state. Texas has also gained through migration from California and other states, and illegal imigration (the flood isn't stopping), just over 600,000 new residents between July of 2008 and July of 2009. Plus the US Census Bureau is estimating that the rate of population growth for the remainder of 2009 exceded 370,000 new residents. We're talking close to a million new people in a year and a half. Texas has passed New York for the #2 positon in population, and is now around 9 to 10 million behind California. If the rate of migration to Texas is increasing like they project, Texas will #1 in population in 5 to 6 years, and right now Texas doesn't have the infrastructure to handle this many people.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Importing illiterates is the number one problem. Give us H1B's they make Ca rich but they are insignificant and can't offset the expense of illiterates flooding our hospitals, school systems, welfare systems, prison systems when they at best earn $12 an hour.

Every other county has strict educational requirements for immigration..like Canada must have a BS or professional skill. Not USA we take idiots in droves.

Number two not killing prisoners. Too many. Why is Charles Manson and Richard Ramirez still Breathing?

Number three business flight due to onerous regulations and taxes. Thousands of warehouses are set up in Phoenix and Reno just to cater to Ca after being run out if CA.
 
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Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
I have to add that California is not alone. Texas will be the next California. Texas gained a huge population migration from Lousianna after Hurricane Katrina that have not returned to their home state. Texas has also gained through migration from California and other states, and illegal imigration (the flood isn't stopping), just over 600,000 new residents between July of 2008 and July of 2009. Plus the US Census Bureau is estimating that the rate of population growth for the remainder of 2009 exceded 370,000 new residents. We're talking close to a million new people in a year and a half. Texas has passed New York for the #2 positon in population, and is now around 9 to 10 million behind California. If the rate of migration to Texas is increasing like they project, Texas will #1 in population in 5 to 6 years, and right now Texas doesn't have the infrastructure to handle this many people.

Texas at least has oil and gas which they get ~8% of each well and can raise it. Sure Ca does too offshore and thus off limits and in the Taft basin but for the most part Ca is reliant on labor to make it's bills. I think TX is a long way away from insolvency.
 

Rastus

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
4,704
3
0
Rise: Abundant natural resources and the ability and permission to harvest them.

Fall: Removal of the permission to harvest abundant natural resources.
 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,577
432
126
For an answer that's doesn't rely quite so much on blaming Mexicans for anything and everything (I know the only people who response to this thread will be those eager to burgeon their xenophobic credentials, but it's worth a shot), perhaps this bit from a TIME Magazine article from late last year:

Why California is Still America’s Future

California's real problems tend to get magnified by its size. If it were a country, it would be in the G-8. So, yes, California has the most foreclosures and layoffs. With 38 million residents and a $1.8 trillion economy, it also has by far the most homes and jobs.

...

California has legitimate problems that inspire legitimate criticism: gangs, sprawl, disturbing dropout rates, water shortages that don't seem to stop farmers from irrigating rice and cotton in the desert, the crazymaking traffic that Hollywood immortalized in Falling Down. It's still sitting on a fault line. Its expensive housing, even after the real estate crash, poses a real obstacle to the dream of upward mobility. So do its public schools and other public services, which have been deteriorating for years — in part because older white voters have been reluctant to subsidize younger minorities.

This gets to the one area where California really is dysfunctional: its budget. Californians generally enjoy government spending more than they enjoy paying for it, which is a national problem, but they've also straitjacketed their politicians with scads of lobbyist-produced ballot initiatives locking in huge outlays for various goodies, as well as the notorious Proposition 13, which has severely restricted local property taxes since 1978.

California is also one of only three states that need a two-thirds supermajority to pass a budget or raise taxes, a virtual impossibility in its ultra-partisan legislature. So it relies on a boom-and-bust tax base that even many liberals admit is overreliant on the rich. The state's economy actually grew last year, but its revenues crashed because its top earners had lower incomes and capital gains. That meant sharp cutbacks, especially in education, which in California is unusually dependent on state cash. "We have an incredibly dynamic economy, but we'll still end up in federal receivership if our government can't pay its bills," says historian Kevin Starr, a prolific chronicler of the state.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
#1 issue IMO: Prop 13, slashing the revenues and giving Republicans a veto with only 1/3 of the votes, not they every abuse that.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
#1 issue IMO: Prop 13, slashing the revenues and giving Republicans a veto with only 1/3 of the votes, not they every abuse that.

How much taxes are too high Craig? California screws the little guy with top rate kicking in at measly 50K which is nothing in CA and it's a whopping 10% on top of federal, sales, excise, sin, and use taxes. That 10% does not fall off much as you get lower either.

Prop 13 is very benefical to those on fixed income. We already have Wall Street and the fed gaming and inflating our savings away do you really wish to add the State of California to that mix?
 

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,336
11
0
#1 issue IMO: Prop 13, slashing the revenues and giving Republicans a veto with only 1/3 of the votes, not they every abuse that.
I was just going to post the same thing. All those people who bought during the "boom" of the sub-prime housing bubble and are now foreclosed on or in the process are no longer paying their share. Does the bank pay the property tax while the house sits vacant?
 

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,336
11
0
How much taxes are too high Craig? California screws the little guy with top rate kicking in at measly 50K which is nothing in CA and it's a whopping 10% on top of federal, sales, excise, sin, and use taxes. That 10% does not fall off much as you get lower either.

Prop 13 is very benefical to those on fixed income. We already have Wall Street and the fed gaming and inflating our savings away do you really wish to add the State of California to that mix?
How do people who live on fixed incomes do it in states without Prop 13-like measures?
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
How do people who live on fixed incomes do it in states without Prop 13-like measures?

They do reverse mortgage scams, lose their homes, etc in places who's home values skyrocket like Ca.

My first house in San Luis Obispo went from 139,000 to $450,000 in five short years. No way would have been able to keep it if tax bill switched from $1000 to $5000 a year. I only made 60K with a young family.
 
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Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
How much taxes are too high Craig? California screws the little guy with top rate kicking in at measly 50K which is nothing in CA and it's a whopping 10% on top of federal, sales, excise, sin, and use taxes. That 10% does not fall off much as you get lower either.

Prop 13 is very benefical to those on fixed income. We already have Wall Street and the fed gaming and inflating our savings away do you really wish to add the State of California to that mix?

Huh? Prop 13 is about not allowing the appreciation of real estate for taxation of more than 1% per year.

That should either be repealed for commercial real estate or anothe rway to tax more fairly found, not letting business keep avoiding tax fairness as they sell corporations owning the property.

For residential, I don't have a specific suggestion - somewhere between leaving it as it is to providing some but less protection for the older, cash-poor homeowners who can't afford the big tax increases.

Maybe a creative plan like accruing the higher taxes while the person owns the home.
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
Huh? Prop 13 is about not allowing the appreciation of real estate for taxation of more than 1% per year.

That should either be repealed for commercial real estate or anothe rway to tax more fairly found, not letting business keep avoiding tax fairness as they sell corporations owning the property.

For residential, I don't have a specific suggestion - somewhere between leaving it as it is to providing some but less protection for the older, cash-poor homeowners who can't afford the big tax increases.

Maybe a creative plan like accruing the higher taxes while the person owns the home.

Basically your solution is to raise taxes on property owners rather then to rain in out of control spending. Prop 13 will never be repealed because it is the only sane measure which was passed by folks here and is designed to protect those who actually contribute to the state of California in the form of tax dollars. Taxing people out of their homes and businesses is not a long term solution unless you are seeking to turn the Golden State into the "Peoples Republic of California". I guess the novel idea of working within a budget plan and sticking to it is lost to those on the far left.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
I could agree with that Craig. Biggest scam of all time is trusting these commercial properties at the 1976 valuation and renting from the corporate trust.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Basically your solution is to raise taxes on property owners rather then to rain in out of control spending. Prop 13 will never be repealed because it is the only sane measure which was passed by folks here and is designed to protect those who actually contribute to the state of California in the form of tax dollars. Taxing people out of their homes and businesses is not a long term solution unless you are seeking to turn the Golden State into the "Peoples Republic of California". I guess the novel idea of working within a budget plan and sticking to it is lost to those on the far left.

Except your post is full of ignorant hyperbole. This has nothing to do with cutting spending which is a separate issue, and not one bit of the efforts to cut spending are prevented by this.

It's your ideological approach that has led to the problems, given that none of your efforts to curtail it have worked.

Cut spending, and then cut property taxes - but stop screwing the state for your ideology.