I really rather like Dean, largely because he's not owned by the big money of either party, and because he makes sense on many levels.
Taking guns off the table is extremely prescient- it's really a dead issue, and Bush gathered a lot of single issue voters on it just because those folks saw Gore as a gun-grabber. That's not to attribute any truth to the argument, one way or the other.
Jobs, trade and the economy are Bush weaknesses. No matter what the stock market does, the loss of decent-paying jobs is a killer. Yeh, things may look better at election time, but guys who've been forced down the foodchain with no relief in sight won't really care- their new job at WalMart sucks compared to their old job at the factory, and they know it... Dean calls it the way it is, the fact that few replacement jobs pay as well as the lost jobs... Rural and Southern Americans aren't stupid, they're the hardest hit, and they know it.
Then there's mounting debt and corporate cronyism looting the treasury, hamstringing the govt, coupled with bogus trickle down taxcuts. Dean's stance and record on fiscal restraint and taxes reflect reality, rather than pie in the sky claims that borrowing, corporate greed and excess wealth are the saviours of America...
And if Dubya can't get Iraq under control RSN, which seems unlikely, Dean's stance will definitely be an asset.
All kinds of other vulnerabilities for the Bushies, too, from their miserable record on the environment to the possibility of other low-simmer scandals blowing up in their faces, like Cheney's energy meeting notes, further revelations about 9/11, or the Plame outing... Flare-ups in Afghanistan, possible SCOTUS rulings against Gitmo, further terror attacks thru the non-defenses and non-preparedness agenda...
Face it, Bush can't effectively campaign to the middle, those folks know they've been sold out one way or another. He has to depend on his base, and on scaremongering and flag-waving. These aren't necessarily bad tactics, they've worked for him so far... if only as diversions from the real agenda... Fai;ure to use 9/11 for anything other than partisan ends is the real weakness of this Administration.
Dean has a chance, I'd say a better one than the other contenders. Run Wesley Clark as VP, hammer at the dishonesty of the current regime, offer a fresh agenda and a real choice. Failure to do so was the real reason for disastrous Democratic losses in 2002- given the choice between real republicans and Bush-lite me-too wannabes, the public will chose the real thing, dream of real Democrats coming back to run their party...
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