We have reached Defconomy 2. Defconomy 1 = Greater Depression...

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Oct 30, 2004
11,442
32
91
Originally posted by: blackangst1

WTFTEXASBBQ does $4/gal have to do with the president you dolt

Maybe if the President's economic policies had resulted in a stronger economy, the $4/gallon gasoline would have less sting.
 
Oct 30, 2004
11,442
32
91
Originally posted by: Vic
Yes, we are in an economic slowdown.
Yes, it is probably going to be a recession.
Yeah, it might be like this for a while.

NO, it is not going to be a depression, much less the Great-er Depression. FFS that's just silly. Tighten your belt and move on, but don't kid yourselves that you've got it worse than your grandparents.

What leads you to believe that this will be an ordinary recession?
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,529
3
0
Originally posted by: XMan
Originally posted by: Jmman
Let's put this in perspective. During the great depression my grandmother told me stories about how they literally had no food. They would take rotten bologna that was literally blue, fry it up, and give it to the children. During the peak of the great depression unemployment was at 25%.

My great grandfather brought home roof rabbit for his family to eat. What's roof rabbit, you ask? Stray cats.
Wow. My Grandparents raised Rabbits and Chickens for food and they had all their relatives live with them. There was a larger sense of community back then as they had to work together to get by.
 

1prophet

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2005
5,313
534
126
The only thing I can see bringing about a depression is a catastrophic crop failure causing a tremendous increase in food prices.
 

palehorse

Lifer
Dec 21, 2005
11,521
0
76
Nobody should panic until McDonalds raises the prices on their dollar menu.

got it.
 

TheSlamma

Diamond Member
Sep 6, 2005
7,625
5
81
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Nobody should panic until McDonalds raises the prices on their dollar menu.

got it.
I won't panic, I'll throw a party. Americans need to stop eating that bullshit... and also this greater depression bullshit too. ;)

 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,954
6,796
126
You are living in the dark night of the human soul, a time when everybody hates himself and has no idea. The depth of our depression is enormous and expresses itself in violence and war.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
You are living in the dark night of the human soul, a time when everybody hates himself and has no idea. The depth of our depression is enormous and expresses itself in violence and war.

Is that you Paula Abdul?
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Nobody should panic until McDonalds raises the prices on their dollar menu.

got it.
I won't panic, I'll throw a party. Americans need to stop eating that bullshit... and also this greater depression bullshit too. ;)

One person cries The Greater Depression and people panic. Too funny. Where's the massive unemployment? Where's the economic collapse?

Most will tell you that we haven't even had an official recession yet.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,954
6,796
126
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
You are living in the dark night of the human soul, a time when everybody hates himself and has no idea. The depth of our depression is enormous and expresses itself in violence and war.

Is that you Paula Abdul?

Whatever you may have intended to express here is totally incomprehensible to me.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
66,672
15,068
146
Are we headed in to a Depression? I don't know..the dammed crystal ball is out for a firmware update, and honestly, I certainly don't know enough about economics to be able to read all the data accurately anyway. BUT, I do know that things seem worse in many areas than I remember seeing them in many, many years. The housing/credit crunch has put a LOT of people out of work, not only in the actual home construction biz, but in remodeling, furniture/appliance sales, all sorts of industries that, while not directly related to housing, are still feeling the crunch of the tightening of credit lines.

The unemployment rate in my county is at 10.8%, the two neighboring counties are at 10% and over 13%. No way to spin those kinds of numbers into anything positive. Sure, some of the unemployment is from retail slowdowns after X-mas, and that's normal, plus, ag related hiring hasn't really started for the season yet, (and most of those will be illegals anyway, thus not reducing the unemployment rates anyway) and the jobs outlook here in northern Kahleeforneeya is getting gloomier and gloomier for people looking for work.

Commercial construction, which is what I worked for over 30 years, is down severely. With the general population hurting for money, businesses are feeling the impact too, and not building and/or expanding. That also affects, not only the construction workers, but building material suppliers, tool sales, office furniture and supplies sellers, etc...the ripple effects are starting to get to tidal wave proportions.

For the first time in my adult life, I'm NOT too optimistic about the future of our economy. Even the dark days of the end of the Carter administration, when interest rates were at an all-time high didn't look this bleak...
 

glugglug

Diamond Member
Jun 9, 2002
5,340
1
81
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Nobody should panic until McDonalds raises the prices on their dollar menu.

got it.

IIRC that's scheduled to happen this spring, correct?
 

palehorse

Lifer
Dec 21, 2005
11,521
0
76
Originally posted by: glugglug
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Nobody should panic until McDonalds raises the prices on their dollar menu.

got it.

IIRC that's scheduled to happen this spring, correct?

Is it? damnit... I really love those $1 double-cheeseburgers when I'm in a hurry and I need to put down some food before a long night of excessive drinking...
 

nullzero

Senior member
Jan 15, 2005
670
0
0
Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Nobody should panic until McDonalds raises the prices on their dollar menu.

got it.
I won't panic, I'll throw a party. Americans need to stop eating that bullshit... and also this greater depression bullshit too. ;)

One person cries The Greater Depression and people panic. Too funny. Where's the massive unemployment? Where's the economic collapse?

Most will tell you that we haven't even had an official recession yet.

We are in a recession right now... the news is always one step behind covering the past and current day to day changes. As for the great depression... I dont believe you can call that if things do play out to worse situation possible. I would call it a Super Stagflation Scenerio with a loss of faith in the economic system if things continue as is and get signifcantly worse. The seeds are all planted for the likely hood of a nasty stagflation economic event to last for years.
 

OS

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
15,581
1
76

recession calls are inherently rearward looking, since it is typically defined as two quarters of negative GDP, you can't officially call one until you are already deep in one, or even after it has passed.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
Originally posted by: SoundTheSurrender
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: SoundTheSurrender
Don't worry about the dollar going to shit. Once the NAU and NAFTA highway are in place we'll be using the Amero.

No, because a weak dollar strengthens domestic production and exports while making foreign goods/imports more expensive/less desirable.

Last time I checked almost everything is made outside of America. At least most of the goods that Americans buy consistently.

2 things.

1. We make a lot fo stuff. Here in my small rural area we manufacture things such as:

Ceramic filters. Fairly high tech stuff used by other manufaturers all over the world.

Manufacturing equipment used in integated circuit manufacturing. Most of these are shipped to Asian manufacturers.

Lots of autopart components. Well, some are used in autos, others used in big equipment like Catepillars etc.

I could go on. Unless you frequent Chamber of Commerce type stuff etc you're prolly not going to know about such things. They're not "sexy", they don't advertise - at least not to the general public.

2. As items we currently import become more expensive as a result of exchange rate fluctuations opportunities open for US-based business to enter these markets and compete.

Fern
 

nullzero

Senior member
Jan 15, 2005
670
0
0
Originally posted by: Fern
Originally posted by: SoundTheSurrender
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: SoundTheSurrender
Don't worry about the dollar going to shit. Once the NAU and NAFTA highway are in place we'll be using the Amero.

No, because a weak dollar strengthens domestic production and exports while making foreign goods/imports more expensive/less desirable.

Last time I checked almost everything is made outside of America. At least most of the goods that Americans buy consistently.

2 things.

1. We make a lot fo stuff. Here in my small rural area we manufacture things such as:

Ceramic filters. Fairly high tech stuff used by other manufaturers all over the world.

Manufacturing equipment used in integated circuit manufacturing. Most of these are shipped to Asian manufacturers.

Lots of autopart components. Well, some are used in autos, others used in big equipment like Catepillars etc.

I could go on. Unless you frequent Chamber of Commerce type stuff etc you're prolly not going to know about such things. They're not "sexy", they don't advertise - at least not to the general public.

2. As items we currently import become more expensive as a result of exchange rate fluctuations opportunities open for US-based business to enter these markets and compete.

Fern

The only 2 things that we manufacture that foriegners actually want are....

Weapons and Entertainment (movies etc.)

Its pretty sad but true when you think about it.
 

beer

Lifer
Jun 27, 2000
11,169
1
0
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Are we headed in to a Depression? I don't know..the dammed crystal ball is out for a firmware update, and honestly, I certainly don't know enough about economics to be able to read all the data accurately anyway. BUT, I do know that things seem worse in many areas than I remember seeing them in many, many years. The housing/credit crunch has put a LOT of people out of work, not only in the actual home construction biz, but in remodeling, furniture/appliance sales, all sorts of industries that, while not directly related to housing, are still feeling the crunch of the tightening of credit lines.

The unemployment rate in my county is at 10.8%, the two neighboring counties are at 10% and over 13%. No way to spin those kinds of numbers into anything positive. Sure, some of the unemployment is from retail slowdowns after X-mas, and that's normal, plus, ag related hiring hasn't really started for the season yet, (and most of those will be illegals anyway, thus not reducing the unemployment rates anyway) and the jobs outlook here in northern Kahleeforneeya is getting gloomier and gloomier for people looking for work.

Commercial construction, which is what I worked for over 30 years, is down severely. With the general population hurting for money, businesses are feeling the impact too, and not building and/or expanding. That also affects, not only the construction workers, but building material suppliers, tool sales, office furniture and supplies sellers, etc...the ripple effects are starting to get to tidal wave proportions.

For the first time in my adult life, I'm NOT too optimistic about the future of our economy. Even the dark days of the end of the Carter administration, when interest rates were at an all-time high didn't look this bleak...


Dude, you're in Modesto, ground zero for the entire subprime mess.

Come to San Francisco and the Peninsula and none of this appears to be true. I see nine cranes within 180 degrees of my window now.
 

GTaudiophile

Lifer
Oct 24, 2000
29,767
33
81
Think the "bread lines" will be more civilized in the 21st Century than in 1929?

This day in age you can almost get trampled to death for a mere $29.00 Dollars. And I doubt ALL these people were starving...
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
66,672
15,068
146
Originally posted by: beer
Dude, you're in Modesto, ground zero for the entire subprime mess.

Come to San Francisco and the Peninsula and none of this appears to be true. I see nine cranes within 180 degrees of my window now.

Dude, I spent MOST of my Kahleeforneeya working career in the Bay area...much of it ON the bay in maritime construction. The union hall says they've never seen it as bad as it's been over the past year. Big projects are cancelling left and right, people are sitting on the out-of-work list who historically have never been there.
The cranes you see working are probably on jobs that were started before this mess began.

Everywhere I look, heavy industrial and commercial construction starts are down...sometimes by a huge margin. Of course, there are sectors where just the opposite are true, but they're the exception rather than the rule.
Hell, housing in the city and on the peninsula is down by a substantial amount.
http://eastbayhousingbubble.bl...f.html?ref=patrick.net
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: nullzero
Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Originally posted by: TheSlamma
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Nobody should panic until McDonalds raises the prices on their dollar menu.

got it.
I won't panic, I'll throw a party. Americans need to stop eating that bullshit... and also this greater depression bullshit too. ;)

One person cries The Greater Depression and people panic. Too funny. Where's the massive unemployment? Where's the economic collapse?

Most will tell you that we haven't even had an official recession yet.

We are in a recession right now... the news is always one step behind covering the past and current day to day changes. As for the great depression... I dont believe you can call that if things do play out to worse situation possible. I would call it a Super Stagflation Scenerio with a loss of faith in the economic system if things continue as is and get signifcantly worse. The seeds are all planted for the likely hood of a nasty stagflation economic event to last for years.

We can't be in a recession right now, it's impossible.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
Originally posted by: nullzero
Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

The only 2 things that we manufacture that foriegners actually want are....

Weapons and Entertainment (movies etc.)

Its pretty sad but true when you think about it.

Actually, we export a ton of stuff. LOOK HERE.

Fern