We have reached Defconomy 2. Defconomy 1 = Greater Depression...

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: nullzero

Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

The only 2 things that we manufacture that foriegners actually want are....

Weapons and Entertainment (movies etc.)

Its pretty sad but true when you think about it.

Actually, we export a ton of stuff. LOOK HERE.

Fern

I always find it interesting that people think we have somehow managed to build the most powerful economy in the world without actually DOING anything. Like we're the kid at the back of the class goofing off, but somehow we've managed to get to a position where the only people giving us a run for our money in terms of economic power is all of Europe put together. The massively exporting, hard working, industrious Chinese...who by the way, have 4 times as many people as we do, don't even come close. The fact that what we make our money doing has CHANGED doesn't mean the new industries don't have value.

 

[1prophet]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: nullzero

Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

The only 2 things that we manufacture that foriegners actually want are....

Weapons and Entertainment (movies etc.)

Its pretty sad but true when you think about it.

Actually, we export a ton of stuff. LOOK HERE.

Fern

And how much of a trade surplus do all those exports give us?

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: 1prophet

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: nullzero

Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

The only 2 things that we manufacture that foriegners actually want are....

Weapons and Entertainment (movies etc.)

Its pretty sad but true when you think about it.

Actually, we export a ton of stuff. LOOK HERE.

Fern

And how much of a trade surplus do all those exports give us?

Actually thats a benefit of a weak dollar. The trade deficit shrinks. Econ 101.

 

[IGBT]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
Jesus Christ on a speedboat, what is with the economic doom and gloom? Every time the economy slows down a little, you have all sorts of people ready to predict the end of civilization itself. Probably because economic speculation is the world's silliest business, so every little bump in the road starts the herd stampeding all over the place. But for most of us, as long as WE don't do anything economically stupid, we're probably going to be fine. The "end of the world" indicators just aren't there.

I mean, am I the only person who thinks the fact that there is less than a year between "things have never been better" and "OMG, we're all going to be living in cardboard boxes"? The fundamental foundations of economic health don't change that quickly, so chances are pretty good that people simply don't know what we're talking about. Case in point, the comparisons to the great depression. Scary stuff, but the problems that lead up to the great depression simply don't exist today. Upswings in the market don't last forever, if the world ended every time a period of growth did, our economy would have collapsed long ago.

..some people are happy to be miserable. everything from the carbon-con to the economic doomers. I call them misery milkers. They sit around all day watching CNN to get their shovel load of media action line darkness. All the while forgetting that the fundamental operating principal of the news business is BAD NEWS SELLS. And their buying it in droves.

 

[1prophet]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: 1prophet

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: nullzero

Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

The only 2 things that we manufacture that foriegners actually want are....

Weapons and Entertainment (movies etc.)

Its pretty sad but true when you think about it.

Actually, we export a ton of stuff. LOOK HERE.

Fern

And how much of a trade surplus do all those exports give us?

Actually thats a benefit of a weak dollar. The trade deficit shrinks. Econ 101.

Good, then we should be seeing those made in America signs back up in the largest corporation in America which is Walmart, since we will be able to sell products to them cheaper than the Chinese can.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: 1prophet
The only thing I can see bringing about a depression is a catastrophic crop failure causing a tremendous increase in food prices.

Don't forget about the possibility of "Peak Oil". If peak oil comes to pass, instead talking about a mere depression people might be talking about mass die-offs.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: 1prophet

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: 1prophet

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: nullzero

Originally posted by: Fern
-snip-

The only 2 things that we manufacture that foriegners actually want are....

Weapons and Entertainment (movies etc.)

Its pretty sad but true when you think about it.

Actually, we export a ton of stuff. LOOK HERE.

Fern

And how much of a trade surplus do all those exports give us?

Actually thats a benefit of a weak dollar. The trade deficit shrinks. Econ 101.

Good, then we should be seeing those made in America signs back up in the largest corporation in America which is Walmart, since we will be able to sell products to them cheaper than the Chinese can.

That is correct. Not to mention exports increase.

 

[sonambulo]

Originally posted by: loki8481
can you really compare anything that's going on in the US today to, like, the dust bowl?

The voice of reason.

Yes, a recession is coming. Yes, it's going to hurt like a motherfucker. Realistically...I can't imagine myself living in a shanty town and fist fighting Okies for a shot at a turnip picking job. We'll just have to live within our means for a while instead of buying into this ridiculous notion that a lifetime of debt is workable. That's life.

 

[beer]

Originally posted by: BoomerD

Originally posted by: beer
Dude, you're in Modesto, ground zero for the entire subprime mess.

Come to San Francisco and the Peninsula and none of this appears to be true. I see nine cranes within 180 degrees of my window now.

Dude, I spent MOST of my Kahleeforneeya working career in the Bay area...much of it ON the bay in maritime construction. The union hall says they've never seen it as bad as it's been over the past year. Big projects are cancelling left and right, people are sitting on the out-of-work list who historically have never been there.
The cranes you see working are probably on jobs that were started before this mess began.

Everywhere I look, heavy industrial and commercial construction starts are down...sometimes by a huge margin. Of course, there are sectors where just the opposite are true, but they're the exception rather than the rule.
Hell, housing in the city and on the peninsula is down by a substantial amount.
http://eastbayhousingbubble.bl...f.html?ref=patrick.net

That link you sent me is for the greater bay area, including contra costa and alemda counties, which I specifically excluded, because they suffered from the McMansion mess that the already-developed SF/san mateo/santa clara counties avoided. I am not saying that the peninsula is immune, but, well, I haven't seen any fall-off in housing prices in San Francisco (city) and all the way down to san jose.

(and that sucks, because I would like to see housing prices fall...but it just isn't happening here).

 

[GTaudiophile]

Bump because I was the first here to use the Titanic analogy!

 

[GTaudiophile]

BTW, I think we are at Defconomy 2!

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: GTaudiophile
Bump because I was the first here to use the Titanic analogy!

Very nice

You've manily been an OTer but fit very well in P&N.

You took quite a few lumps by the MRR's in this thread.

Welcome to the "Turnabout is sweet revenge" club.

The real "Elite"

 

[Zenmervolt]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
To cover the next 50 years of social service liabilities, we would need to have at least $9 trillion in the bank right now...we have zero. In fact, we're digging ourselves further in debt at a rate of roughly $3 trillion every 6 years.

Then maybe, just maybe, we should cut back on those social services? Hmmm?

ZV

 

[extra]

It's going to suck and the economy probably isn't going to be good again for quite a long time, and taxes are going to hafta be raised to pay debt down, etc, quality of life is going to take a cut from what people are used to, BUT i don't think it's going to go back to bread lines, either. But it also isn't going to be the 90's again..for quite a while, anyway.

 

[SilthDraeth]

Originally posted by: Vic
Yes, we are in an economic slowdown.
Yes, it is probably going to be a recession.
Yeah, it might be like this for a while.

NO, it is not going to be a depression, much less the Great-er Depression. FFS that's just silly. Tighten your belt and move on, but don't kid yourselves that you've got it worse than your grandparents.

QFT


Also, fricken save your god damned money. The best way to make more money is spend less money.

If you stop living on credit, you got nothing to fear.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: SilthDraeth

Originally posted by: Vic
Yes, we are in an economic slowdown.
Yes, it is probably going to be a recession.
Yeah, it might be like this for a while.

NO, it is not going to be a depression, much less the Great-er Depression. FFS that's just silly. Tighten your belt and move on, but don't kid yourselves that you've got it worse than your grandparents.

QFT


Also, fricken save your god damned money. The best way to make more money is spend less money.

If you stop living on credit, you got nothing to fear.

exactly. during great depression we had an unemployment rate of 25%, right now we have 6%. wake me up when unemployment rate hit 10% and higher.

 

[bamx2]

The actual unemployment rate is 1.5 - 2 times the statics .

 

[Orsorum]

Originally posted by: Siddhartha
Solutions for getting out of the hole"

1. Reduce the size of the US's sphere of influence. Close bases in Europe and Asia. Those geo-political centers can and should defend themselves. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan within a year. This will significantly reduce government spending.

2. Promote the use of coal. This will be a significant step towards energy independence. Yes coal is dirtier but are there technologies that can make it less damaging to the environment?

3. Start agressive programs to improve the country's physical and human infrastructure. This will increase the efficiency of the economy and creat jobs here.

I always shake my head when I read economic doom and gloom posts and threads. The solutions I have listed above will not sit well with people who think the US should run the world, who think that investing in other people is evil, or who have vested interests in not using domestic energy sources.

:thumbsup:

 

[SilthDraeth]

Originally posted by: Orsorum

Originally posted by: Siddhartha
Solutions for getting out of the hole"

1. Reduce the size of the US's sphere of influence. Close bases in Europe and Asia. Those geo-political centers can and should defend themselves. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan within a year. This will significantly reduce government spending.

2. Promote the use of coal. This will be a significant step towards energy independence. Yes coal is dirtier but are there technologies that can make it less damaging to the environment?

3. Start agressive programs to improve the country's physical and human infrastructure. This will increase the efficiency of the economy and creat jobs here.

I always shake my head when I read economic doom and gloom posts and threads. The solutions I have listed above will not sit well with people who think the US should run the world, who think that investing in other people is evil, or who have vested interests in not using domestic energy sources.

:thumbsup:

Coal is fine. It can't run cars though. But don't get me wrong, I agree with everything you said. It would be nice though if we bartered grain from our country for oil from other countries, and produced more domestically.

I never did understand that we export oil, only to turn around and import it back.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: rchiu

exactly. during great depression we had an unemployment rate of 25%, right now we have 6%. wake me up when unemployment rate hit 10% and higher.

Wouldn't those numbers depend on how unemployment is measured and calculated? Is it possible that the 6% figure dramatically undercounts unemployment? How do you account for people who are significantly underemployed?

Also, how do you account for job quality? After all, a poverty-wage job is a job as far as the employment stats are concerned, right? Might it be possible to have 10% unemployment yet have much higher quality and better-paying jobs and 3% unemployment with boatloads of low-paying, low-quality jobs? Just some food for thought.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: bamx2
The actual unemployment rate is 1.5 - 2 times the statics .

Ah ok then unemployment was abtually 40-50% back then. Man we got a long ways to go!

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: rchiu

exactly. during great depression we had an unemployment rate of 25%, right now we have 6%. wake me up when unemployment rate hit 10% and higher.

Wouldn't those numbers depend on how unemployment is measured and calculated? Is it possible that the 6% figure dramatically undercounts unemployment? How do you account for people who are significantly underemployed?

Also, how do you account for job quality? After all, a poverty-wage job is a job as far as the employment stats are concerned, right? Might it be possible to have 10% unemployment yet have much higher quality and better-paying jobs and 3% unemployment with boatloads of low-paying, low-quality jobs? Just some food for thought.

And the converse is true. There are more high paying jobs now than ever before. Shit...theres job boards catering to the $100k + crowd. Know way to really tell is there. Guess it depends how pessimistic you are. Which seems to be most Ive noticed.
Sorry, off topic.

 

[Craig234]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: rchiu

exactly. during great depression we had an unemployment rate of 25%, right now we have 6%. wake me up when unemployment rate hit 10% and higher.

Wouldn't those numbers depend on how unemployment is measured and calculated? Is it possible that the 6% figure dramatically undercounts unemployment? How do you account for people who are significantly underemployed?

Also, how do you account for job quality? After all, a poverty-wage job is a job as far as the employment stats are concerned, right? Might it be possible to have 10% unemployment yet have much higher quality and better-paying jobs and 3% unemployment with boatloads of low-paying, low-quality jobs? Just some food for thought.

And the converse is true. There are more high paying jobs now than ever before. Shit...theres job boards catering to the $100k + crowd. Know way to really tell is there. Guess it depends how pessimistic you are. Which seems to be most Ive noticed.
Sorry, off topic.

You need to learn how to research and post facts to back up your claims. The facts would apparently surprise you.

 

[Colt45]

Originally posted by: SilthDraeth

Originally posted by: Orsorum

Originally posted by: Siddhartha
Solutions for getting out of the hole"

1. Reduce the size of the US's sphere of influence. Close bases in Europe and Asia. Those geo-political centers can and should defend themselves. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan within a year. This will significantly reduce government spending.

2. Promote the use of coal. This will be a significant step towards energy independence. Yes coal is dirtier but are there technologies that can make it less damaging to the environment?

3. Start agressive programs to improve the country's physical and human infrastructure. This will increase the efficiency of the economy and creat jobs here.

I always shake my head when I read economic doom and gloom posts and threads. The solutions I have listed above will not sit well with people who think the US should run the world, who think that investing in other people is evil, or who have vested interests in not using domestic energy sources.

:thumbsup:

Coal is fine. It can't run cars though. But don't get me wrong, I agree with everything you said. It would be nice though if we bartered grain from our country for oil from other countries, and produced more domestically.

I never did understand that we export oil, only to turn around and import it back.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer-Tropsch_process

 

[StageLeft]

Well fvck me, GT I do recall reading this some time ago and I would agree we're well on our way with the defconomies.

We are in defconomy 3, though, not yet at 2.