Watch the U.S. back down to avoid war with China

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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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Our side acting like nothings changed is part of the problem.... things HAVE changed and drastically. Lets hope we don't learn that the hard way.

All I can say is that I'm glad I'm not in Taiwan right now.
Things have changed, in our favor.


At home China is demographically screwed. The 1 child policy destroyed the next generation. They do not have enough people to replace the ones that will retire out in the next ten years. 1 child policy = 1 child has to support 2 elderly parents, their own children, and themselves.

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China built much of its current economic growth on the back of an explosive housing market. Which now increasingly turns out to have been a pyramid scheme. The country is going into a massive economic downturn:
New launches are almost always sold before they are built. When heavily indebted developers run out of cash, buyers are left with nothing but a debt obligation.
Basically:
1: sell home before it is built
2: run out of money
3: borrow money from the government
4: lease additional land from China's government, grease the correct officials pocket
5: sell more homes before they are built on newly leased land from step 4
6: use the influx of cash to complete the homes from step 1
7: goto step 1

Today is the strongest China will ever be in our lifetime. Every day China is getting weaker and more unstable as the true scale of its economic mismanagement unfolds. Those idiots flushed $6 trillion dollars down the toilet. They need to come up with that $6 trillion somehow or China is done.

------------------------------

All we have to do is wait it out.
The CCP shot China's future in the back of the head, and billed the next generation for the bullet.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
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The thing about Desert-Storm is that it was on a big, flat and wide-open desert where it's super-easy to hit/destroy anything you aim at. (Ukraine's contested area's are largely flat and open too)

How well did that strategy translate into the Balkans or Afghanistan's heavily mountainous terrain for example? (it didn't)

Yeah, there are a lots of ways it just doesn't work. Scale, geography, the politics and histories involved, one having a hated dictator, one a hunt for "non state actors" in ungoverned regions. I could go on for some time.

I think there is a tendency in the West to look at China's population and economic clout and just throw their hands up and say Oh Well. Sometimes it's paired with 'they're just trying to catch up!' but the near immediate acquiescence to what China wants always irks me. You roll over for dictatorships and they will keep rolling you - into a mobile crematorium. Again, see Ukraine for another great example.

The international community of law abiding nations should resist Chinese aggression in exactly the same manner it has been resisting Russian aggression. Neither Russia or China are under any military threat, they're simply trying to hang onto corruption riddled old world style autocracies. Taiwan already has good reasons, but lately has seen Beijing's treatment of Uighurs and Hong Kong. Hard No on that one Pooh Bear.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
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All we have to do is wait it out.
The CCP shot China's future in the back of the head, and billed the next generation for the bullet.

I tend to agree, though I worry China will act before the CCP caves in. Xi will try to spend the capitol that has been earned investing in decades of frothy conquer Taiwan propaganda. China has a lot of looming problems, many of which might not have fixes. Taiwan could be their Get Out of a Revolution card, and Xi is waiting for his military to reach the required size before he pulls it.

Maybe he'll start things off with a blockade, though I think a manufactured incident followed immediately by a 'first punch' is more likely.

Good for Pelosi and the bipartisan support coalescing behind her, I like that people are getting it now. China is sending cyber attacks to Taiwan and more units to Fujian for exercises. Oh well.
 
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Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
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lol you think a landing craft armada is going to cross the 86 nautical mile staright without being sunk?

Obviously not.... however I also wasn't expecting them to shoot Nancy down or launch an invasion right now because they're not ready. (and no other reason)

This is just another step down the road to conflict on China's terms.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
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People tend to overlook the fact that Chinese forces have no real world battle experience at all. Zip. Zero. Nada. They can drill all they like, but haven't fired a shot in anger at anyone external in who knows how long. Whereas any US/Allied forces (outside Taiwan) have been in a somewhat constant state of engagement for going on 20 years.
India comes to mind. That's it. It was basically a skirmish.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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I tend to agree, though I worry China will act before the CCP caves in. Xi will try to spend the capitol that has been earned investing in decades of frothy conquer Taiwan propaganda. China has a lot of looming problems, many of which might not have fixes. Taiwan could be their Get Out of a Revolution card, and Xi is waiting for his military to reach the required size before he pulls it.
If they take Taiwan without doing or taking any damage at all, they get to pick between:

taxable income - about $30 billion a year at 3% return

looting Taiwan - hard to say how much they would get. Taiwan is only 23 million people. I think China would be lucky to loot a trillion.

either way, China comes up way short.
 
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sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
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Obviously not.... however I also wasn't expecting them to shoot Nancy down or launch an invasion right now because they're not ready. (and no other reason)

This is just another step down the road to conflict on China's terms.


They lie to their own people so much that some believe there is a bridge to Taiwan from mainland China...
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,465
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Obviously not.... however I also wasn't expecting them to shoot Nancy down or launch an invasion right now because they're not ready. (and no other reason)

This is just another step down the road to conflict on China's terms.
China has to want that conflict. China could simply say the blood price is too high and we will let Taiwan be its own sovereign nation.

Yes, there's tons of socio- and geo-politicao implications along with that. But my point is that every step along the way to conflict if/when that happens, China has a choice. Conflict is by no means inevitable or fated.

Also keep in mind younger generations of Taiwanese are not going to strongly identify as Chinese anymore. I recently read an article on this and it was pretty interesting.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
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China has to want that conflict.

The plan is to wait us out and I don't see it failing.... patience worked in Hong Kong and it will work for them here.

10-15 years from now I seriously doubt the US will present nearly the obstacle it does currently.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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The plan is to wait us out and I don't see it failing.... patience worked in Hong Kong and it will work for them here.

10-15 years from now I seriously doubt the US will present nearly the obstacle it does currently.
10-15 years from now China will be done as a country.

As I mentioned in my previous post, China's 1 child policy dooms them in those time frames. 1 child policy = 1 person to support 2 elderly parents, themselves, and their children. The economic burden of supporting the elderly will be crushing.

China is stronger today then it will be for at least a generation.
China has deep systemic issues from decades of CCP mismanagement that have destroyed China's future.
 
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Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
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PLA to conduct drills around island of Taiwan Tuesday night including conventional missile test launches - Global Times

If you didn't figure it out with Russia... Russia did the same thing with Ukraine right before the invasion.


Don't be silly.... everything is fine because 'murica. :rolleyes:

If you've ever looked back at history and wondered how people didn't see really obvious bad stuff coming down the pike just read this thread and beginning of the one for Russia/Ukraine.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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China has been a country (loosely interpreted) for well over 3000 years.... they're going nowhere.

America OTOH.... :oops:
You mean China has been a cruel joke of country for over 3000 years?

Built a wall, and then had it bypassed by the invaders who just bribed the gatekeeper?

Conquered and diced up by every two bit world power in the age of empire?

Starved 45 million of their own citizens to death in Mao's great leap forward?

Tricked by president Nixon into having a generation of their citizens slave away in factorys to supply Americans with cheap goods?

A government so corrupt they decided to only allow 1 child per family so more cheap goods could be sent to America?

Working conditions so awful they had to install suicide nets on their factory roofs?
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,465
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I knew it. USA Called their Bluff.. As if China stands a chance against a direct confrontation with the USA.
To be fair, china doesn't need to win an all out war. It just needs to keep carriers out of its coastal region, which is why the carrier-killer ballistic missiles were such a big deal when they were revealed.
Being able to sink a $5B craft with 60-100 planes and 5000 sailors on is a pretty solid deterrent
 
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