The weekend saw devastating news arrive that's all but killed off HD DVD as a next-gen video format - Warner Bros. has dumped HD DVD and will release its films only on Blu-ray from May of 2008.
But insiders over at the AVS Forums - who are proper, actual insiders who work for companies like Microsoft, Universal and representatives of the Blu-ray consortium - reckon the decision could've gone either way.
Warner dumping HD DVD for Blu-ray went down to the wire - and it could've been persuaded, along with 20th Century Fox, to go exclusively with HD DVD instead.
In fact, they both nearly DID - an agreement was apparently in place between Warner, Fox and HD DVD backer Toshiba for the HD DVD WIN SCENARIO, only for Fox to pull out at the last minute and go crying off to Sony instead. Which gave Warner cold feet, so it went Blu-ray as well. It really was that close to being an HD DVD victory.
So if Warner and Fox had gone for HD DVD it'd be Blu-ray that'd look like the failed format today, and perhaps Bill Gates just might've pulled out an HD DVD-packing Xbox 360 from under his podium at CES last night, rather than blather on about a few new downloadable films instead.
In fact, I'd bet money that Microsoft's much-rumoured HD DVD-enabled Xbox 360 was one of the deals on offer to tempt Warner to support HD DVD exclusively in a "you support our format, we'll send out a few million more players over the next year" kind of deal.
But now Warner has dumped HD DVD, effectively killing the format, Microsoft has binned the prototype HD DVD 360 as well. Out of SPITE (and business sense).
No doubt we'll find out what really happened here in a few years, once the anger has subsided and the council has helped drain all the tears away. It's all been a terribly exciting weekend in the HD format war, in the geekiest and saddest way possible.