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Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
110
106
inflation, which is already well established, normal, and healthy

You are drinking their koolaid. In what way do you benefit from inflation? It's not healthy. It's only "normal" because they have been stealing your money through inflation for the past hundred years.

If inflation is so healthy and good, why don't we just print $17 trillion and pay off the debt? Why not?

Answer: inflation isn't actually healthy at all, but the lowest levels of inflation aren't bad enough to completely kill the economy so they are tolerated.
 

randomrogue

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2011
5,449
0
0
That's not what the dollar value represents. It represents the purchasing power (and that chart is off by quite a bit btw) and unless you expect goods and services to never increase in price then the dollar will buy less in the future than it does in the past.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
Back up! Does Chiropteran still think bitcoin is going to emerge as a valid "global currency"?

Hahahhaha
 

Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
110
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unless you expect goods and services to never increase in price then the dollar will buy less in the future than it does in the past.

Why do you think things should increase in price over time? You were born into the system and you feel the need to defend it, it's like the Matrix in real life.

There is no reason for the price of things to increase over time! That is simply an affect of inflation you have grown accustomed to. As technology and efficiency improve, things actually get cheaper. Everything today is cheaper (in real work terms) to produce than ever before, the only reason prices increase is due to inflation.
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
81
You are drinking their koolaid. In what way do you benefit from inflation? It's not healthy. It's only "normal" because they have been stealing your money through inflation for the past hundred years.

If inflation is so healthy and good, why don't we just print $17 trillion and pay off the debt? Why not?

Answer: inflation isn't actually healthy at all, but the lowest levels of inflation aren't bad enough to completely kill the economy so they are tolerated.

Just who is "they" that's stealing "my" money? Is there some "secret menu" that doesn't get inflated that only the privileged are allowed to access? God I can only imagine the conspiracy theories if we had a deflationary currency and employers were cutting pay trying to tell their workers that they're making more money "relatively" lol.

Inflation, in moderation, is good. It's good psychologically. It's good economically.

Inflation encourages wages and salaries to rise (whether they do or not is another much more subjective matter). Which in turn encourages consumption and helps keep the workforce happy as they at least have that psychological itch scratched to earn more money, whether the real value of it is greater or less or not (a concept beyond most of them anyway).

Inflation makes banking possible. Again a big part of this is psychological. With a deflationary currency, interest rates on deposits would be negative or zero at best; which would likely not be taken kindly to by depositors. A deflationary currency discourages making deposits which in turn puts a bottleneck on lending. Lending unabated can be dangerous (see subprime mortgages), but is still extremely important to economic growth when done responsibly. Lending is how houses get built, businesses get started, degrees are earned, and so much more. Without lending people spend less and put themselves at greater risk when they undertake something 'big', if they ever even manage to reach that point on their own.

In theory, if every human had a perfect understanding of inflation v deflation and real v nominal value, either system could theoretically work. But they don't. And if nothing else, inflation is more palatable to our base human nature of "more is better".
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
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There is no reason for the price of things to increase over time! That is simply an affect of inflation you have grown accustomed to. As technology and efficiency improve, things actually get cheaper. Everything today is cheaper (in real work terms) to produce than ever before, the only reason prices increase is due to inflation.

If a TV fifty years ago was identical to a TV today, yes. But it's not. The goods themselves also change. They get bigger, they get faster, they get prettier, they get stronger, they get smarter, they get safer, they get lighter, they get smaller, they get cooler, they get hotter. They get better. Price is a one dimensional measure and does not necessarily account for value. Or how value changes over time. And never tells the story of market forces.
 
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Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
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Inflation

encourages consumption
makes banking possible

Why do you think these are good things? We should strive to only use what we need. There is plenty of waste in human nature as it is, there is no need to encourage more useless spending by inflating away saved money.

"Banking" is really the reason for all of our recent economic problems. The housing market collapse in particular. I don't see why making it "possible" is a good thing :)

If a TV fifty years ago was identical to a TV today, yes. But it's not. The goods themselves also change. They get bigger, they get faster, they get prettier, they get stronger, they get smarter, they get safer, they get lighter, they get smaller, they get cooler, they get hotter. They get better. Price is such a one dimensional measure and ignores value.

This is called a straw man, where you make it look like my argument was something that it isn't and then try to knock it down.

Actually, price is the only relevant value we are talking about here. Something that is constantly advancing and changing isn't the optimal choice to compare prices on. Look at the price of corn or beef or something. If you remove inflation, I am fairly confident prices today are cheaper than they were 100 years ago. Farms get more efficient and technology makes everything easier. Of course there are some things where the highest possible level of efficiency was found some time ago and it's no longer becoming more efficient over time, but NOTHING becomes inherently more expensive over time, except for when you add in inflation.
 
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Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
1
0
What you don't seem to understand, Chiropteran, is that a currency needs to have stable value or it will not be used. Whether or not inflation is a problem is a separate issue.

At worst, inflation slowly erodes value, but that doesn't make the currency unusable. Having the value of the currency relative to other currencies swinging up and down by 20% a day makes it unusable.
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
81
Why do you think these are good things? We should strive to only use what we need. There is plenty of waste in human nature as it is, there is no need to encourage more useless spending by inflating away saved money.

"Banking" is really the reason for all of our recent economic problems. The housing market collapse in particular. I don't see why making it "possible" is a good thing :)

If we only tried to use what we 'needed', we'd still be living in caves. And different people need different things. Do we need the LHC? Do we need the Smithsonian? Do we need twinkies? No, not in terms of survival. But does that mean we'd be better off without them? And further, could they (and so much more) have been achieved without economic growth?

To me, prosperity is best achieved with mild inflation and prosperity begets culture and makes it possible for people to do more than just what's 'needed'. Humanity is a culture, not a commune.

I think we should strive to grow responsibly. There's just as great of a potential for abuse in both inflationary and deflationary systems, that's not an issue of economics but one of human nature. Same for banking; if lenders had done their job responsibly there never would have been a housing bubble nor crash, or at least not one so huge. Fault the player, not the game.

This is called a straw man, where you make it look like my argument was something that it isn't and then try to knock it down.

Actually, price is the only relevant value we are talking about here. Something that is constantly advancing and changing isn't the optimal choice to compare prices on. Look at the price of corn or beef or something. If you remove inflation, I am fairly confident prices today are cheaper than they were 100 years ago. Farms get more efficient and technology makes everything easier. Of course there are some things where the highest possible level of efficiency was found some time ago and it's no longer becoming more efficient over time, but NOTHING becomes inherently more expensive over time, except for when you add in inflation.

Production price per unit is not equal to retail price per unit. Price is where supply and demand intersect. If over the last hundred years the output of corn and beef has only increased Xfold but the amount people demand has increased X+1fold, it's still going to drive the price up, no matter how efficient it's become. If demand outstrips supply the price will rise; but that's not inflation.

Inflation is prices rising to keep their cost stable relative to interest rates. Supply and demand shifting to change prices is the invisible hand at work. Highly volatile markets, such as food, are often excluded from measures of inflation (or given less weight) for this very reason. They're subject to large supply or demand swings due to health trends, health scares, weather, natural disasters, disease and more. All of which would cause prices to change, and none of which are inflation.
 
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Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
110
106
What you don't seem to understand, Chiropteran, is that a currency needs to have stable value or it will not be used. Whether or not inflation is a problem is a separate issue.

At worst, inflation slowly erodes value, but that doesn't make the currency unusable. Having the value of the currency relative to other currencies swinging up and down by 20% a day makes it unusable.

That is simply not true. The USD has never been stable relative to other currency, and it's been used fine. Even the ridiculous hyper-inflated Zimbabwe dollar was "used" for a few years.

Fact is, people use the best tool for the job. Is bitcoin value volatile? Yes. Is that a good thing? No. But is it the only thing that matters? Absolutely not. Bitcoin's multitude of benefits outweigh the penalty of being somewhat volatile.

No currency will EVER be stable compared to USD, with $40 billion/month dollars being basically printed in the form of QE3, and why would anyone want a currency to be stable with such?

The dollar is being devalued, the whole point of bitcoin is a currency that can't be devalued by government action, of course bitcoin isn't going to hold a stable consistent value compared to something that is sinking like the titanic.
 

Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
110
106
Do we need the LHC? Do we need the Smithsonian?

I do not think the LHC nor the Smithsonian were built out of people deciding that saving was a waste of time because of inflation. I think you are trying to make a point on a false premise. Inflation discourages savings, that was my point. Do you think honestly think the Smithsonian came about because a few people said "fuck saving, I'm going to spend my money and build a museum"? I can assure you that was not the case, there is no relation between inflation and the existence of the Smithsonian, or LHC, or anything else. You are either poorly informed if you think so, or you know better and you are making a dishonest argument.

Same for banking; if lenders had done their job responsibly there never would have been a housing bubble nor crash, or at least not one so huge. Fault the player, not the game.

The saying is "hate the game, not the player". The bankers are simply taking advantage of a broken system. Fix the system and you don't need to rely on people being nice. Any economist will tell you that humans do what benefits themselves. Expecting people to disregard years of evolution and work to the common good in a system that can be easily abused for personal gains sounds absurd to me.

Production price per unit is not equal to retail price per unit. Price is where supply and demand intersect. If over the last hundred years the output of corn and beef has only increased Xfold but the amount people demand has increased X+1fold, it's still going to drive the price up, no matter how efficient it's become. If demand outstrips supply the price will rise; but that's not inflation.

So what? Inflation causes EVERYTHING to increase in cost over time. In a natural working economy without inflation some things may occasionally increase but most things will decrease in price over long enough timescales.

Inflation is prices rising to keep their cost stable relative to interest rates. Supply and demand shifting to change prices is the invisible hand at work. Highly volatile markets, such as food, are often excluded from measures of inflation (or given less weight) for this very reason. They're subject to large supply or demand swings due to health trends, health scares, weather, natural disasters, disease and more. All of which would cause prices to change, and none of which are inflation.

Yes, change. Not increase, change. Overall, prices will get lower. You can pick a specific example and exclaim that whale meat has increased in cost by 1000% but overall the prices of things all go down. The things that increase due to shortage or whatever reason fall behind and don't get purchased and the economically viable products replace it and carry society forward.
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
You are drinking their koolaid. In what way do you benefit from inflation? It's not healthy. It's only "normal" because they have been stealing your money through inflation for the past hundred years.

If inflation is so healthy and good, why don't we just print $17 trillion and pay off the debt? Why not?

Answer: inflation isn't actually healthy at all, but the lowest levels of inflation aren't bad enough to completely kill the economy so they are tolerated.

Because when the economy goes in the crapper, wages/prices are sticky and don't go down to meet equilibrium, thus you need inflation. Also, small amounts of inflation encourage investment. DEFLATION destroy investment.
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
1
0
That is simply not true. The USD has never been stable relative to other currency, and it's been used fine.

US Dollar Index most recent daily range: 82.311 - 82.710
Bitcon 24-hour range: 95 to 136.43

So, the difference between the high and low for the US dollar is 4.8%.
The difference for Bitcoin is 43.6%.

In fact, the trading range for the US dollar for the last year is one-sixth of what Bitcoin's was in one day.

Please do tell me how these are comparable in terms of stability.

Even the ridiculous hyper-inflated Zimbabwe dollar was "used" for a few years.

You're arguing my point here, because the Zimbabwean dollar stopped being used specifically because it became unstable. It was abandoned in 2009.

Fact is, people use the best tool for the job.

Near as I can tell, the only things Bitcoin are useful for are speculation, gambling and criminal activity.

The only thing holding it up is hype and the Greater Fool Theory.
 
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Zenmervolt

Elite member
Oct 22, 2000
24,514
41
91
Purchasing%2BPower%2Bof%2BU.S.%2BDollar.jpg

Median Income in 1900: $490/year

Median Income in 2011: $50,100/year

In 1900, $100 represented more than 20% of a person's gross yearly income. Today, that same $100 is less than two tenths of one percent of a person's gross yearly income. Any discussion of purchasing power is at best incomplete without an accompanying explanation of the increase in pay.

Also, note that while the value of $100 has declined, the real earnings have risen by a staggering amount. That 2011 median income has the same purchasing power as a 1900 income of $1,743.48. In real terms, the purchasing power of the average person's income has increased more than 3 and a half times.

Or perhaps you were simply pointing out that there have been some fluctuations in the value of the US dollar as well and that it has not been a flat inflation curve over time.

While it is indeed true that functional currencies are not perfectly stable, bitcoin has proven itself to be orders of magnitude less stable than the dollar. Gradual changes in the value of a currency are easily tolerated (as actual practice clearly demonstrates). Rapid fluctuations where the value changes significantly within a single week, however, have never been tolerated at any point in history, let alone instances where the value changes rapidly within a single day.

Even accepting your position that even gradual inflation is bad in the long term, the dollar is still far superior to bitcoin because the future value is predictable within a reasonable range (note how smooth that graph of yours gets as time goes by). It's possible to take in dollars today and have a reasonable estimate of their purchasing power in the future. That's simply not possible with bitcoin.

If you want to shrug all this off as "teething problems" and claim that things will get better over time, you're welcome to do so. But it's simply not rational to suggest that anything with a value as wildly unpredictable as bitcoin's is even close to being ready for use as a viable currency.

ZV
 

Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
110
106
Even accepting your position that even gradual inflation is bad in the long term, the dollar is still far superior to bitcoin because the future value is predictable within a reasonable range (note how smooth that graph of yours gets as time goes by).

chart.png


Bitcoin value is fairly smooth and predictable when viewed on a larger timescale as well. And this isn't even a fair comparison, comparing 3 years to 100 years. Check again in 17 years and see if the 20 year chart for bitcoin isn't more volatile than the USD chart.

In 1900, $100 represented more than 20% of a person's gross yearly income. Today, that same $100 is less than two tenths of one percent of a person's gross yearly income. Any discussion of purchasing power is at best incomplete without an accompanying explanation of the increase in pay.

Yes, and those facts are true despite the inflation of the USD, not because of it.
 

Born2bwire

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2005
9,840
6
71
chart.png


Bitcoin value is fairly smooth and predictable when viewed on a larger timescale as well. And this isn't even a fair comparison, comparing 3 years to 100 years. Check again in 17 years and see if the 20 year chart for bitcoin isn't more volatile than the USD chart.

Anything like that would look smooth if you put it on a Logarithmic scale. For crying out loud, that is a variation of a factor of 4000! This is how it really looks:

chart.png
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
chart.png


Bitcoin value is fairly smooth and predictable when viewed on a larger timescale as well. And this isn't even a fair comparison, comparing 3 years to 100 years. Check again in 17 years and see if the 20 year chart for bitcoin isn't more volatile than the USD chart.



Yes, and those facts are true despite the inflation of the USD, not because of it.
Hahahahajahahanahaha nice scale there Chiropteran.
 

Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
110
106
Value of bitcoin increases exponentially with adoption rate, if you aren't using log scale you get skewed looking graphs. Now you are complaining that bitcoin is being adopted too fast. You just can't please everyone.
 

Born2bwire

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2005
9,840
6
71
Value of bitcoin increases exponentially with adoption rate, if you aren't using log scale you get skewed looking graphs. Now you are complaining that bitcoin is being adopted too fast. You just can't please everyone.

And that only adds to the volatility and deflationary properties of bitcoin that makes it unsuitable as a currency. This has to do with the disadvantage of a finite amount of bitcoins that require an exponentially increasing amount of work to generate. The physical supply of bitcoins cannot be modified in response to demand like any other fiat or commodity backed currency. Instead, the velocity of the bitcoins needs to increase to keep the value stable but this is not going to happen in a deflationary currency since it is rewarding hoarding.
 

dighn

Lifer
Aug 12, 2001
22,820
4
81
Value of bitcoin increases exponentially with adoption rate, if you aren't using log scale you get skewed looking graphs. Now you are complaining that bitcoin is being adopted too fast. You just can't please everyone.

how about the part where it is dumped too fast? talk about a skewed view.

also how is _exponential_ value increase normal? that's insanity for an alleged "currency".