Unemployment falls again to 8.3%

[Doc Savage Fan]

Answer in your own quoted passage:

So which is it....a .3% decrease in the Participation Rate as indicated in the BLS report or no decrease as First advocated?

 

[fskimospy]

So which is it....a .3% decrease in the Participation Rate as indicated in the BLS report or no decrease as First advocated?

The participation rate declined, but it did so as expected considering the demographics of where population growth occurred so it's not a sign of some other problematic dynamic in our economy that isn't being accounted for.

If your population grows mostly in students and retirees you end up with fewer people in the work force. That might be some sort of other policy problem going forward but in terms of analyzing employment data today it just represents an artifact in the census data, not some sort of current employment trend.

 

[crashtestdummy]

So which is it....a .3% decrease in the Participation Rate as indicated in the BLS report or no decrease as First advocated?

The way to think about it is that the participation rate is .3% lower than they thought it was before. It didn't drop .3% in December. This is an artifact that has probably propagated through their estimates for the past ten years (since the last census).

 

[theeedude]

I guess GOP will just have to crash the recovery by not extending payroll tax cut. Otherwise, they are toast in November.

 

[Ausm]

Personally, I do not care WHO fixes the economy. I simply want it fixed.

Cool, then call up McConnell and tell him to stop abusing the Filibuster.

 

[Ausm]

Republicans are already talking down the economy:
Drudge headlines:

I just heard that Cantor is now complaining that the economy is growing to fast and we are going to be hammered with inflation...LMAO

 

[fskimospy]

I guess GOP will just have to crash the recovery by not extending payroll tax cut. Otherwise, they are toast in November.

It will be really interesting to see what they do now. It is in their obvious best political interest to refuse to extend that tax break, but it's a policy that they should be ideologically in favor of.

My guess is that they play the deficit card really hard.

 

[fskimospy]

I just heard that Cantor is now complaining that the economy is growing to fast and we are going to e hammered with inflation...LMAO

lol. Whatever the case is, the GOP needs to get its messaging in order, post haste. This report seems to have thrown them into disarray.

I don't think I need to elaborate too much on just how sad it is that one of America's two political parties is having such a terrible time with what is unambiguously good news.

 

[Juddog]

It looks like the republican congress is dong a good job.

LOL - Unemployment rises - it must be Obama's fault! Unemployment drops - it's the Republicans in Congress! Yay!

This reminds me of the Christian view where everything good in life is attributed to God, and everything bad is the work of the devil.

 

[Ausm]

lol. Whatever the case is, the GOP needs to get its messaging in order, post haste. This report seems to have thrown them into disarray.

I don't think I need to elaborate too much on just how sad it is that one of America's two political parties is having such a terrible time with what is unambiguously good news.

+1

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

The way to think about it is that the participation rate is .3% lower than they thought it was before. It didn't drop .3% in December. This is an artifact that has probably propagated through their estimates for the past ten years (since the last census).

Agree...the Particpation Rate is actually .3% lower than we previously thought due to population/demographic changes since the last census. I imagine that First was trying to say (rather poorly imo) that the actual drop did not occur in one month. Thanks.

 

[First]

^ Yes, that is what I was trying to say Doc Savage Fan.

 

[Thump553]

Don't worry about the GOP. By anyone's estimation this recovery is fragile, there is still time for the Congressional GOP to tank it (the trick is they can't be obvious when they do it).

 

[Fern]

Typical election year bullshit. How can unemployment be going down at the same time the monthly tax withholding from paychecks went down.

In December it was $162 billion but in January it was $158 billion. How do you account for the loss of ~$4 billion if we are adding more jobs?

http://fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html

Does this information:

1.2 million people fall out of labor force

have any effect on the 8.3%?

These are interesting bits of info.

Am looking forward to reading some professional analyses of this data.

Fern

 

[fskimospy]

These are interesting bits of info.

Am looking forward to reading some professional analyses of this data.

Fern

No need, it's all pretty simple. Total employment for the US declined sharply from December to January as all the seasonal workers from Christmastime were laid off. Much as these people weren't counted in the hires for December, they weren't un-counted for when they were laid back off. That's what seasonal adjustment is all about.

The second quote has already been discussed on here. Stupid people with an agenda (not talking about the people who posted it here) didn't read the BLS report well and failed to realize that 2012 began to use new population numbers from the 2010 census that the 2011 figures didn't use.

 

[the DRIZZLE]

The participation rate declined, but it did so as expected considering the demographics of where population growth occurred so it's not a sign of some other problematic dynamic in our economy that isn't being accounted for.

If your population grows mostly in students and retirees you end up with fewer people in the work force. That might be some sort of other policy problem going forward but in terms of analyzing employment data today it just represents an artifact in the census data, not some sort of current employment trend.

What are you basing this on? The Fed disagrees and believes that demographics can only explain roughly half of the drop in the participation rate in the last few years.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012...aby-boomers-for-big-part-of-labor-force-drop/

edit: nm , saw your earlier post. I'll have to look at the data a bit closer to see if the BLS's explanation holds water.

 

[theeedude]

Republicans really want to talk down this Obama recovery, because recovery builds confidence, which accelerates the recovery, which makes GOP even more irrelevant.

Nothing about the recovery on top foxnews.com headlines, it's buried in "latest news" list on the bottom. Among the featured headlines that are more important than 240K Americans finding jobs:

"Where's the Outrage?
DJ's Racist Talk Unnoticed."

"Restaurant Lobby Tries to Detour In-Car Breath Test."

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Republicans really want to talk down this Obama recovery, because recovery builds confidence, which accelerates the recovery, which makes GOP even more irrelevant.

Nothing about the recovery on top foxnews.com headlines, it's buried in "latest news" list on the bottom. Among the featured headlines that are more important than 240K Americans finding jobs:

"Where's the Outrage?
DJ's Racist Talk Unnoticed."

"Restaurant Lobby Tries to Detour In-Car Breath Test."

The recent CBO economic outlook report isn't exactly painting a rosey picture either. They must be Republicans and really want to talk down this Obama recovery!

CBO
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/126xx/doc12699/01-31-2012_Outlook.pdf

 

[Sonikku]

The tiny turn around doesn't have anything to do with Washington. Even if Obama tried to get something through congress to improve the economy or job market ever since the tea party took over the house it has effectively been paralyzed from accomplishing or passing much of anything. This was likely the economy just going in it's normal cycle of ups and downs.

 

[MooseNSquirrel]

While private employement is still growing sadly local and state governments are atill cutting back.

Oh the irony of shrinking government employment under a Democratic President.

 

[shortylickens]

While private employement is still growing sadly local and state governments are atill cutting back.

Oh the irony of shrinking government employment under a Democratic President.

Its not ironic. They spent themselves to death. It was inevitable.

 

[Idontcare]

Welcome to the forums Chamakh :thumbsup:

 

[StrangerGuy]

Republicans really want to talk down this Obama recovery, because recovery builds confidence, which accelerates the recovery, which makes GOP even more irrelevant.

Nothing about the recovery on top foxnews.com headlines, it's buried in "latest news" list on the bottom. Among the featured headlines that are more important than 240K Americans finding jobs:

"Where's the Outrage?
DJ's Racist Talk Unnoticed."

"Restaurant Lobby Tries to Detour In-Car Breath Test."

All those recent antics and in-party rivalry by GOP candidates couldn't have done more to get Obama reelected.

 

[Doppel]

But isn't the actual employment rate going down? I have to wonder if we are finally at the point that we inevitably would rise at as technology meets third world outsourcing--the point at which the bottom "chaff" of the economy simply stop working and really we just carry them indefinitely because they have so little to offer anyway.

The point is I think that when automation gets good enough, when we all have robots far more capable than us at basic tasks, essentially most of us won't need to work because there's nothing we can that some machine can't do better. We aren't there yet, but perhaps the trend we have seen over recent years of ultimate employment going down won't stop. Those unemployed are surely more comfortable than ever in the past with the social assistance available.

 

[Doppel]

The tiny turn around doesn't have anything to do with Washington. Even if Obama tried to get something through congress to improve the economy or job market ever since the tea party took over the house it has effectively been paralyzed from accomplishing or passing much of anything. This was likely the economy just going in it's normal cycle of ups and downs.

Agreed, but I think this year's election always was going to be about the economy. If the unemployment rate is comfortably in the 7's come November Obama can say look it was slow, but I've knocked off 3% unemployment and the last president bumped it up by more than that. Stick with me and we'll be down to 5s soon enough. And it will work, whether he is truly responsible or not.