Unemployment drops .....

[trenchfoot]

Excellent thread, great posts. I've learned much from keeping tabs on this one. Thanks guys.

 

[Texashiker]

But it's generally not work at a factory (quite a bit is though). IMO the trades are way overlooked. Everybody has to go to college (needlessly in many cases). There's plenty of good work that cannot be outsourced:

<snip>

There's a crap load of ways to make good money without a college degree.

Fern

You posted that list to a guy who spent 15 years working in welding shops.

One problem is manual labor has been demonized. Just about everyone is telling their children to go to college rather that learn a skill. Heck, I am telling my own kids to stay out of manual labor.

Pay and benefits for manual labor also sucks. Some fields pay ok while other just down right suck.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

You posted that list to a guy who spent 15 years working in welding shops.

One problem is manual labor has been demonized. Just about everyone is telling their children to go to college rather that learn a skill. Heck, I am telling my own kids to stay out of manual labor.

Pay and benefits for manual labor also sucks. Some fields pay ok while other just down right suck.

Contract labor wages/benefits sucks, working full time for a reputable company does not as they offer decent wages and benefits. I'll be willing to be the mechanics/machinist/welders that work for the same company I do and our their competitors make better wages than you including benefits.

 

[Texashiker]

Contract labor wages/benefits sucks, working full time for a reputable company does not as they offer decent wages and benefits. I'll be willing to be the mechanics/machinist/welders that work for the same company I do and our their competitors make better wages than you including benefits.

You and I work in two different worlds.

The economy of southeast Texas has been repressed since the early 1980s.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

You and I work in two different worlds.

The economy of southeast Texas has been repressed since the early 1980s.

Yet I live in southeast Texas as well. The company for whom I work have personnel that live and work predominately in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area with project as far west as Baytown.

 

[monovillage]

You have to be close to the bottom of the barrel to actually do worse than Jimmy Carter, but Obama has managed to scrape it.
http://nypost.com/2013/09/06/worse-than-jimmy-carter/

Jimmy Carter must be smiling: Another president has finally broken the record he had held for the worst rate of participation in the job market by American workers in modern times.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics&#8217; Friday job numbers show the nation&#8217;s &#8220;labor force participation rate&#8221; &#8212; i.e., the percentage of Americans over 16 who have jobs, or are looking for one &#8212; dipped to 63.2 percent.

That beats the sad record of 63.4 percent set in 1978, a harbinger of the Carter-era stagflation and malaise to come.

Yes, the unemployment rate last month ticked down a tenth of a point, to 7.3 percent. But that&#8217;s only slightly better than the 7.8 percent rate that prevailed when Obama first took office in 2009. And much of that gain is the result of workers simply giving up altogether on finding jobs: The BLS reports that a record 90 million Americans eligible for work are sitting on the sidelines. These workers don&#8217;t count as &#8220;unemployed,&#8221; hence the lower unemployment rate.

 

[fskimospy]

You have to be close to the bottom of the barrel to actually do worse than Jimmy Carter, but Obama has managed to scrape it.
http://nypost.com/2013/09/06/worse-than-jimmy-carter/

That has to be one of the dumbest op eds I have ever seen. Labor force participation is lower now than it should be, but only a liar or an idiot would try to compare participation rates between the 1970s and now.

Participation will be lower in 2020 than it is now, regardless of economic conditions. Will that president be the new worst ever?

 

[mshan]

Why are so many workers opting out? Part of it is retiring baby boomers. But others have simply given up because of an economy that&#8217;s been anemic for Obama&#8217;s entire 55-month tenure. At the same time, uncertainty about the future and concern about the costs of ObamaCare may also be holding business back from expanding.

"The common commentary on this phenomenon is that this is due to people giving up looking for a job because they think no jobs are available. This is simply wrong. Every month, in the survey used to calculate the unemployment rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics specifically polls for this, asking those who are not looking for a job if their unwillingness to search is because they believe there are no jobs out there for them. This category, which is called &#8220;discouraged workers,&#8221; has always been small--averaging just 0.25% of the civilian population. More to the point, over the past two and a half years, the number of discouraged workers has actually fallen from 0.51% to just over 0.34% of the civilian population. Clearly, a rise in discouraged workers is not the reason for falling participation."


http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/SubmissionsArticle.aspx?submissionid=169792.xml&part=2

As more data come in, the law's impact can't be seen in hiring statistics, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

"That mandate, originally slated for 2014, has not deterred hiring as feared, some economists now say.

I was expecting to see it. I was looking for it, and it's not there,'' says Zandi, whose firm manages ADP's surveys of overall private-sector job creation. If the Affordable Care Act "were causing a drop, you would see meaningful slowing.''

...

"New research from Moody's and other economists also challenges the idea that small employers are hiring only part-time workers to avoid falling under the health care law's mandate to insure full-time workers.

It's true that about 77% of jobs added nationwide in 2013 are part time. But this year's new jobs are concentrated in industries such as restaurants and hospitality that use as much as twice as many part-timers as other companies, Moody's economist Marisa DiNatale found in a July paper. Most industries are actually using fewer part-timers than last year, DiNatale said.

Likewise, FT Advisors chief economist Brian Wesbury says this year's gains in part-time hiring offset a late-2012 drop in part-time jobs when full-time employment was surging. For the last 12 months, 75% of new jobs are full time, according to the Labor Department."


http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/08/20/small-business-hiring/2662407/

Cold hearted fact is that American companies retooled during the Great Recession, and alot of unfortunate souls have been rendered obsolete by automation (factories now at same output at pre-recession, but only need 70% of workforce they did before), and technological innovation (e. g. startups only need a laptop and access to Amazon Web Services now) also reducing need for back office support staff.



Or how many retail store jobs have been gutted by the Amazon model?:

"Amazon.com Creates 5,000 Jobs, Destroys 25,000 In The Process?

On one hand, you have companies like TJX&#8212;so-called "bricks and mortar" retailers&#8212;which in order to do business every day must staff a few thousand stores, and keep them open for 10, 12, or even 24 hours per day. That means greeters, checkers, security, customers ervice, and stockroom employees, plus bright lighting, catchy displays, and other ordinary features of a quality retail facility.

Companies like Amazon have bricks and mortar too, of course, as displayed on the recent junket in Tennessee. But that's about all they have. Amazon can operate in facilities far off the beaten path, with nothing but wire shelves and cement floors, and they can serve just as many customers from only a fraction of the locations&#8212;and a fraction of the manpower&#8212;that their competitors require. On just about every front, the company is more efficient than its peers. But let's look specifically at two of the top expenses for virtually any retail company: its plant and its people."


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...eates-5000-jobs-destroys-25000-process?page=1

And also what about sophisticated, just in time, scheduling software that has reduced part time hours to just in time staffing (2 -3 hour shifts?):

"While there have always been part-time workers, especially at restaurants and retailers, employers today rely on them far more than before as they seek to cut costs and align staffing to customer traffic. This trend has frustrated millions of Americans who want to work full-time, reducing their pay and benefits.

&#8220;Over the past two decades, many major retailers went from a quotient of 70 to 80 percent full-time to at least 70 percent part-time across the industry,&#8221; said Burt P. Flickinger III, managing director of the Strategic Resource Group, a retail consulting firm.

No one has collected detailed data on part-time workers at the nation&#8217;s major retailers. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has found that the retail and wholesale sector, with a total of 18.6 million jobs, has cut a million full-time jobs since 2006, while adding more than 500,000 part-time jobs.

Technology is speeding this transformation. In the past, part-timers might work the same schedule of four- or five-hour shifts every week. But workers&#8217; schedules have become far less predictable and stable. Many retailers now use sophisticated software that tracks the flow of customers, allowing managers to assign just enough employees to handle the anticipated demand.

&#8220;Many employers now schedule shifts as short as two or three hours, while historically they may have scheduled eight-hour shifts,&#8221; said David Ossip, founder of Dayforce, a producer of scheduling software used by chains like Aéropostale and Pier One Imports.

Some employers even ask workers to come in at the last minute, and the workers risk losing their jobs or being assigned fewer hours in the future if they are unavailable."


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/b...for-american-workers.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

If this were a Republican administration, political talking points would be about how this is just capitalism, and that the people without jobs are too lazy to get retrained, or just want handouts and entitlements and their lack of jobs is their fault.

Realistically, what is needed is large scale infra-structure stimulus program to put these now obsolete workers back into upgrading our infrastructure to be globally competitive in future, all in exchange for comprehensive corporate tax reform with possible repatriation of foreign profits. (and instead of trying to continually repeal such a bill, focus fights on details of what is actually being written and how money is being spent, so it does end up being wise investment that improves our country's ability to compete globally in future, rather than just political pork and handouts without oversight).

I believe Obama has already put this "baby Grand Bargain" offer on table for Republicans, but Republicans won't bite because they know that would make economy start to feel much better for a much larger cross-section of the population, and then likelihood of Republicans increasing hold on House of Representatives and possibly attaining majority in Senate go down alot. (IIRC, true entitlement reform has been put off by all till next presidential election cycle?)

Besides, their true super rich constituents are doing just fine as is...

 

[mshan]

(IIRC, January 2008 was the peak of the Bush Bubble Economy in terms of employment)

 

[Texashiker]

Yet I live in southeast Texas as well. The company for whom I work have personnel that live and work predominately in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area with project as far west as Baytown.

Construction or permanent position jobs?

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Construction or permanent position jobs?

Permanent positions.

 

[mshan]

On a hunch, I did a quick google search for where the reversed oil pipelines from Cushing, OK end, and Port Arthur seems to be in vicinity:

Seems like it may be a boom time from all the oil that used to be landlocked in Cushion, OK (http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/oil-price-differentials-caught-between-sands-and-pipelines), now being able to be exported to highest bidder around the world through ports around Houston.

There is also no political chatter about the liquidified natural gas plant being built in Louisiana (http://theadvocate.com/home/6720944-125/story.html), so compressed natural gas and liquified natural gas can be exported to far east, where it sells for much, much more than in U. S. All we ever hear about is Keystone pipeline, where I believe quietly three pipelines have been reversed to move oil from Cushing, OK to ports on gulf coast for export around the world.




Boom town in North Dakota for comparison:
- http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000041194
- http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2011/10/27/pf_boomtown_oil_jobs.cnnmoney/
- http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/28/pf/north_dakota_jobs/index.htm?iid=EL
(one caveat I heard on tv is that if you are not drilling in the sweet spot of a fracking formation, then break even point can be around $90, but if you are in sweet spot, it sounds like cost basis is much, much lower)

Off-Shore Drilling Rigs:
- http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/14/us-oil-rigs-idUSBRE89D0GK20121014


Canton, OH (Chesapeak Energy natural gas fracking)
- http://www.cnbc.com/id/49468542
- http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/5/23/the-natural-gas-massacre-gets-bloodier.html



IIRC, Jim Cramer on Mad Money said that in northeast, Cabot Oil and Gas is also building out pipelines as they try and convert northeast to natural gas (?)
- http://www.bizjournals.com/charlott...mont-natural-gas-investing-180m.html?page=all

 

[EagleKeeper]

If this were a Republican administration, political talking points would be about how this is just capitalism, and that the people without jobs are too lazy to get retrained, or just want handouts and entitlements and their lack of jobs is their fault.

Realistically, what is needed is large scale infra-structure stimulus program to put these now obsolete workers back into upgrading our infrastructure to be globally competitive in future, all in exchange for comprehensive corporate tax reform with possible repatriation of foreign profits. (and instead of trying to continually repeal such a bill, focus fights on details of what is actually being written and how money is being spent, so it does end up being wise investment that improves our country's ability to compete globally in future, rather than just political pork and handouts without oversight).

I believe Obama has already put this "baby Grand Bargain" offer on table for Republicans, but Republicans won't bite because they know that would make economy start to feel much better for a much larger cross-section of the population, and then likelihood of Republicans increasing hold on House of Representatives and possibly attaining majority in Senate go down alot. (IIRC, true entitlement reform has been put off by all till next presidential election cycle?)

Link?

 

[mshan]

No link available, but I heard comments about it numerous times on tv (and to clarify, first paragraph is my opinion about how political spin would unfold)

I think it was being talked about on tv a month or two ago, but it quickly became obvious that there is total gridlock in Washington and some Republicans (Tea Party) just don't want to bargain at all (unless it is give us everything we want and we won't compromise at all in return).

 

[Texashiker]

Permanent positions.

Send me the company name and I will put my application and resume in.

 

[EagleKeeper]

No link available, but I heard comments about it numerous times on tv (and to clarify, first paragraph is my opinion about how political spin would unfold)

I think it was being talked about on tv a month or two ago, but it quickly became obvious that there is total gridlock in Washington and some Republicans (Tea Party) just don't want to bargain at all (unless it is give us everything we want and we won't compromise at all in return).

Previously, Obama and the Dems have proposed positive changes with a poison pill embedded in the proposal that they know will not fly with the Republicans.

Therefore when it gets shot shown, the pill is never pointed out; but the fact that the Republicans rejected this amazing economic benefit bill.

I will grant that anything the tea party puts up on the table is completely onesided.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Send me the company name and I will put my application and resume in.

No welding positions are open in Beaumont/Port Arthur area, this is a service center position (Houston or Corpus Christi). If you have experience as a machinery (industrial steam turbines/compressors) mechanic I will provide you with a contact point to apply.

 

[unokitty]

U.S. jobs numbers paint dim picture of ongoing employment crisis

Friday' s jobs numbers continued to paint a bleak picture of the ongoing U.S. jobs crisis, and experts said at current rates the country will have to wait years to return to pre-recession levels of unemployment.

The jobless rate inched down marginally in August from 7.4 percent to 7.3 percent, according to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the economy added a paltry 169,000 jobs.

"At this rate, it would take until well into 2021 to fill our gap of 8.3 million jobs and return to a healthy labor market," said Economic Policy Institute Economist Heidi Shierholz on the organization' s website.

The U.S. jobs market has been struggling for years now, since the economy tanked at the end of 2007 and sparked a global economic downturn. While a number of metrics have improved, the jobs crisis remains unsolved, with 11.3 million unemployed and millions more "underemployed" -- a term defined as part-timers seeking full-time work.

"Furthermore, though the unemployment rate dropped in August, it was for all the wrong reasons," she added, noting that the labor force participation rate dropped to 63.2 percent, its low of the downturn.

Noting that unemployment figures do not include individuals not seeking work, she calculated that if the missing workers had been added to the equation, the jobless rate would stand at 9.5 percent.

I'm glad that so many of the posters here are doing well. But I'd be happier if the economy was better.

Uno

 

[Texashiker]

No welding positions are open in Beaumont/Port Arthur area, this is a service center position (Houston or Corpus Christi). If you have experience as a machinery (industrial steam turbines/compressors) mechanic I will provide you with a contact point to apply.

If you have any positions come up needing heat exchanger experience let me know.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

If you have any positions come up needing heat exchanger experience let me know.

Will do. Management is always talking about increasing capabilities to capture more business in the region, US, and worldwide.

 

[Kwatt]

Got a chart of inflation laying around? When did inflation skyrocket? After we were taken off the gold standard.

With no standard to measure the value of our money, it is worthless.

I see a massive bubble coming over the next 15 years. Baby boomers will need massive amounts of medical care, and generation X will start retiring.

With less people working, who is going to pay for all of that?

Either legalize millions of new workers, which will further drive down wages.

Or, print more money out of thin air. We think out national debt is bad now? Lets just wait 15 -20 years.

Alan Greenspan’s 1966 essay entitled “Gold and Economic Freedom”.

“The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit…The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.”

.

 

[mshan]

"The growth of the [index] in recent months suggests that employment is likely to moderately expand through the fall," said Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at the board.

"The rapid job growth in the first half of 2013 was faster than we had expected given weak economic activity and only moderate improvement in the ETI. The slowing down of employment in the past two months brings the six-month trend to a more sustainable rate."


Last Friday, the Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls increased by a slightly-less-than-expected 169,000 new jobs, with a large downward revision to July payrolls. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3% in August but mainly because people dropped out of the labor force.

The board said seven of the ETI's eight components contributed to the August increase. The biggest positives were the ratio of involuntary part-timers to all part-timers and the percentage of respondents who say jobs are "hard to get.

The Conference Board's employment trends index is an aggregate of eight labor-market indicators, including jobless claims, job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and industrial production figures from the Federal Reserve. The index seeks to facilitate forecasts for employment, unemployment and wages by filtering out the noise and volatility of monthly labor market indicators and showing underlying trends more clearly."

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow...-employment-trends-index-rises-in-august.aspx

 

[mshan]

"U.S. small business optimism dipped in August as owners worried about the economy's near-term outlook, but gains in sales expectations and hiring plans hinted at a pick-up in the pace of economic growth.

The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index slipped 0.1 point to 94 last month.
While details of the survey were fairly mixed, key indicators such as planned hiring, capital spending, inventory accumulation and sales all advanced in August, suggesting an improvement in sentiment in the months ahead.

"Capital spending and inventory investment plans increased as well, all activities that would put some energy into GDP (gross domestic product) growth," the NFIB said in a statement.

That would fit in with expectations of an acceleration in activity in the second half of the year, though growth slowed somewhat early in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first half of the year.

There was a big increase in job creation plans, which jumped to levels last seen in January 2007, a positive sign for the labor market amid signs of a slowing in job growth trend.

However, the share of firms reporting they could not find suitable candidates to fill open positions fell."

http://news.yahoo.com/u-small-business-confidence-slips-august-113441470--business.html

 

[Texashiker]

Alan Greenspan’s 1966 essay entitled “Gold and Economic Freedom”.

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit

One day that debt has to be paid back.

 

[Attic]

One day that debt has to be paid back.

Or rendered less valuable through inflation. I guaruntee 17Trillion will be worth order of magnitudes less in 40 years. The debt is a tool to achieve boosted output. It takes some balance, but where balance fails, inflation can be utilized to varying degrees to pay off debt burden. If we can sell debt to foreigners all the better, we can off shore some inflation.

The key to economy is efficient production driven by suitable rewards for work. IMO financialization has destroyed a model that once served a majority of workers just fine.. Neither of the political mindesets appear to me to have a solution labor problems. Doesn't look like this is cared for by the ones benefiting from the growing wealth inequalities in the USA who have seen huge wealth gains from increasingly skimmed value of production. They happen to be close to money printing benefiters (financial companies).