Unemployment drops .....

[Texashiker]

I am going to make a statement, and I do not mean for it to be sexist.

As more women entered the workforce, wages began to stagnate. Not because of women per say, but because of a surplus of labor in the workforce.

 

[PokerGuy]

I have no interest in the same old 'what constitutes spending cuts' argument.

Of course not, why let pesky things like 'reality' or 'logic' get in the way of big government ideology?

 

[shira]

The unemployment rate makes everyone giddy... but we should really be looking at the employment rate.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

What we may be seeing is a legitimate long-term trend: a return to single-earner households. That might cause deflationary pressure over the short- and middle-terms, but it definitely isn't an unsustainable economic state and certainly wouldn't be without precedent: witness the entire planet pre-1970.

 

[Double Trouble]

I am going to make a statement, and I do not mean for it to be sexist.

As more women entered the workforce, wages began to stagnate. Not because of women per say, but because of a surplus of labor in the workforce.

There's nothing sexist about that, it's simple supply and demand. Increasing the supply of qualified labor, all other factors being equal decreases the equilibrium wage.

 

[fskimospy]

Of course not, why let pesky things like 'reality' or 'logic' get in the way of big government ideology?

I so so wish that you used logic or reality in your posts.

You have no idea how sincere my wish for that is.

 

[Attic]

Well bonds and stocks are bid.

Lousy job numbers overall. A significant amount of the jobs counted were low paying and we saw bad news for manufacturing and construction jobs. I'd guess 10b taper instead of 15-20b which was on a lot of folks radar.

My biggest gripe is that its clear the economy needs help and solutions, but the effects of that help from QE are going far and away to the very wealthy.

Labor participation rate is a worry as well. We all know how the outcome of a spend less, tax more, borrow more soup is going to cook if the tax base weakens. More debt than is sustainable will continue to try and be brought in.

 

[nehalem256]

I am going to make a statement, and I do not mean for it to be sexist.

As more women entered the workforce, wages began to stagnate. Not because of women per say, but because of a surplus of labor in the workforce.

Its pretty much economics 101.

And makes a lot more sense than the liberals blaming Reagan for things that began 10 years before he was president. :hmm:

 

[fskimospy]

There's nothing sexist about that, it's simple supply and demand. Increasing the supply of qualified labor, all other factors being equal decreases the equilibrium wage.

That doesn't explain why wages as a percentage of income in the economy have declined as well, however.

 

[Texashiker]

That doesn't explain why wages as a percentage of income in the economy have declined as well, however.

Maybe that is because we were taken off the gold standard, which allows the federal reserve to print money out of thin air.

Where does that money go? To the banks and wall street.

 

[fskimospy]

Maybe that is because we were taken off the gold standard, which allows the federal reserve to print money out of thin air.

Where does that money go? To the banks and wall street.

Nah. Taking the US (hopefully) permanently off the gold standard was one of the smartest economic moves we ever made.

 

[Texashiker]

Nah. Taking the US (hopefully) permanently off the gold standard was one of the smartest economic moves we ever made.

Got a chart of inflation laying around? When did inflation skyrocket? After we were taken off the gold standard.

With no standard to measure the value of our money, it is worthless.

I see a massive bubble coming over the next 15 years. Baby boomers will need massive amounts of medical care, and generation X will start retiring.

With less people working, who is going to pay for all of that?

Either legalize millions of new workers, which will further drive down wages.

Or, print more money out of thin air. We think out national debt is bad now? Lets just wait 15 -20 years.

 

[fskimospy]

Got a chart of inflation laying around? When did inflation skyrocket? After we were taken off the gold standard.

With no standard to measure the value of our money, it is worthless.

I see a massive bubble coming over the next 15 years. Baby boomers will need massive amounts of medical care, and generation X will start retiring.

With less people working, who is going to pay for all of that?

Either legalize millions of new workers, which will further drive down wages.

Or, print more money out of thin air. We think out national debt is bad now? Lets just wait 15 -20 years.

The US and various countries around the world have gone on and off commodity standards for a long time now. The gold standard was a horrible idea as it prevented the use of monetary policy to fight economic crisis. If you want to see why the gold standard was bad, look at the Eurozone today.

Low, sustained inflation is a good thing, not a bad thing.

 

[StrangerGuy]

"Unemployment" rate without other data on quality of jobs created and # of people giving up finding work is merely a dumb figure.

 

[fskimospy]

"Unemployment" rate without other data on quality of jobs created and # of people giving up finding work is merely a dumb figure.

All those figures are available.

 

[Anarchist420]

There really isn't anyway to know the employment rate from statistics, especially govt ones.

Nah. Taking the US (hopefully) permanently off the gold standard was one of the smartest economic moves we ever made.

It wasn't really a true gold standard. Jefferson favored free market money, Jackson started the first true gold standard. I think free market money is a little bit better because then the govt isn't taking anything of intrinsic value that way.

 

[Texashiker]

Low, sustained inflation is a good thing, not a bad thing.

There is no argument from me on that topic.

As people leave the workforce where does the money go? It is not going into the hands of the middle class. The days are gone when someone could finish high school, go to work at a factory, buy a home, buy a car (or truck), start a family and have extra money.

With the middle class struggling, baby boomers retiring, gen X getting ready to retire in 15 - 20 years, who is going to repay the money to government stole from social security?

Jackson started the first true gold standard. I think free market money is a little bit better because then the govt isn't taking anything of intrinsic value that way.

That is because Jackson knew how dangerous banks are.

When banks are allowed to print money on a whelm, the nation is their servant.

 

[shadow9d9]

Due to people dropping out of the market, not due to jobs being generated.

Business still is distrustful of economic direction and the administration policies.
government forecasts we know are rosy and over inflated, but by 40%. That sound like manipulation of numbers.


Link

Businesses are still greedier than ever, preferring to fire thousands so they can give their ceos millions in bonuses for "cutting costs." It has nothing to do with trust of Obama, considering he is almost as right wing as Bush. Give me a break.

 

[Fern]

There is no argument from me on that topic.

As people leave the workforce where does the money go? It is not going into the hands of the middle class. The days are gone when someone could finish high school, go to work at a factory, buy a home, buy a car (or truck), start a family and have extra money.
-snip-

I don't think so.

Many around here do it all the time.

But it's generally not work at a factory (quite a bit is though). IMO the trades are way overlooked. Everybody has to go to college (needlessly in many cases). There's plenty of good work that cannot be outsourced:

1. Mechanic

2. HVAC tech

3. Electrician

4. Plumber

5. Truck driver/delivery

6. Operate bulldozer, backhoe etc.

7. Carpenter

8. Roofer

9. Landscaper

10. Wait staff (not fast food)

It's fairly easy to start in all of these, and with the exception of wait staff you eventually own your own business and make some good money.

And if you want to be really rich, work on #6 above and invest your money in used equip. When you accumulate enough pieces you can make some serious money.

Another way to get rich is to work in vertical concrete (contructs culverts etc for govt road work). I know a guy who started out in that right out of high school and now is a multi-millionaire with his own personal auto museum.

There's a crap load of ways to make good money without a college degree.

Fern

 

[Fern]

How many of these new jobs are part time?

I haven't been able to find how many hours must be worked for a job to count in the statistics. maybe eski knows or can find it. I've been curious about that for some time, but no luck searching.

Eski, can you help me out?

TIA

Fern

 

[Zaap]

There's plenty of good work that cannot be outsourced:

1. Mechanic



3. Electrician

4. Plumber

5. Truck driver/delivery



7. Carpenter

8. Roofer

9. Landscaper

Here in California (and coming soon to as many of the other 49 states as possible) we've got the illegal lobby ACTIVELY working to turn the above trades I left in your list into more 'jobs Americans won't do' so soon you can mark those off the list.

In fact, I bet you'd be hard pressed to find that many American citizens still doing many of the jobs on that list for a decent wage in any of California's large cities. (Definitely not landscapers or carpenters)

The very same dingbats cheering on the gutting of professions like that really believe it's a civil rights issue and not just that people are banking huge bucks by not having to pay decent money for those tasks anymore. Many are also the same dummies whining about minimum wages, even as they encourage their government to undermine and ignore immigration and labor laws.

It's unreal sometimes watching a nation slit its own throat, but here we are.

 

[mshan]

FWIW with these seasonally adjusted, annualized government statistics (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/saar.asp), the topline number from shaky household survey (calling 60,000 households and asking if they have a job, and then making inferences about why any particular phone number didn't answer phone), the adjusted / normalized "topline" number of household survey, from which 7.3% unemployment rate is obtained, was 286,000:

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf

I had link that had lots of the underlying data from today's BLS establishment survey (the headline number), but I can't find it now (edit: table A-8?: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm) I was googling for BLS household survey topline number or unemployment or something like that (forgot). I think it had alot of the data Fern was asking about above. I think it is somewhere on BLS website.

This is what I posted further up the thread, though:

"New research from Moody's and other economists also challenges the idea that small employers are hiring only part-time workers to avoid falling under the health care law's mandate to insure full-time workers.

It's true that about 77% of jobs added nationwide in 2013 are part time. But this year's new jobs are concentrated in industries such as restaurants and hospitality that use as much as twice as many part-timers as other companies, Moody's economist Marisa DiNatale found in a July paper. Most industries are actually using fewer part-timers than last year, DiNatale said.

Likewise, FT Advisors chief economist Brian Wesbury says this year's gains in part-time hiring offset a late-2012 drop in part-time jobs when full-time employment was surging. For the last 12 months, 75% of new jobs are full time, according to the Labor Department."


http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/08/20/small-business-hiring/2662407/

Given the gloom and doom on tv at end of last year (fiscal cliff, sequester, Obamacare), it seems to me, perhaps, that employers cut back on what they didn't necessarily need (plentiful, easily replaceable, and given the retoooling of America during The Great Recession, essentially commodity item part time workers, not highly skilled full time workers who may prove to be very, very difficult to replace if they let them go and later realize they made a mistake), and when things didn't end up being as bad as expected, they had to scramble to rehire part timers again.

General Motors chief econonist said that new auto sales (which absolutely boomed in August) are more correlated with those who already have full time jobs being comfortable that they are not going to be laid off, rather than unemployment rate or superficially weak appearing new job growth (also look at how well affluents are doing, given Disney's Parks booming sales, despite price hikes over and above what they instituted last summer (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101012341).

"Matt Ouimet, Cedar Fair's president and CEO, told CNBC, "I think people are still being very disciplined on how and where they spend their money, but once they get to the park, they've been spending it on food, they've been spending it on merchandise, they've been spending it on games."

Others have commented on tv that consumers have more spending power than last year, but they are being cautious about how they spend (big ticket hardware items rather than apparel), and also that there is no must have item this year.

 

[Fern]

Here in California (and coming soon to as many of the other 49 states as possible) we've got the illegal lobby ACTIVELY working to turn the above trades I left in your list into more 'jobs Americans won't do' so soon you can mark those off the list.

In fact, I bet you'd be hard pressed to find that many American citizens still doing many of the jobs on that list for a decent wage in any of California's large cities. (Definitely not landscapers or carpenters)

The very same dingbats cheering on the gutting of professions like that really believe it's a civil rights issue and not just that people are banking huge bucks by not having to pay decent money for those tasks anymore. Many are also the same dummies whining about minimum wages, even as they encourage their government to undermine and ignore immigration and labor laws.

It's unreal sometimes watching a nation slit its own throat, but here we are.

Are you talking about illegals taking over those jobs?

If so, we have more than our share here. The 'country boys' around here hire them as their work crew and make good money off it. Its' an easy way to start your own business with a small bit of cash: Get the customers (who all speak only English) and hire some illegals cheaply and supervise them. They find one illegal who can speak English and make him a supervisor/foreman to tell the others what to do in Spanish.

I see it a lot in small construction, roofing and landscaping.

These guys are turning lemons into lemonade (illegals = cash for them). IMO, the resourcefullness and abilities of 'rednecks' is vastly understated or unknown.

Fern

 

[Zaap]

Are you talking about illegals taking over those jobs?

Of course.

If so, we have more than our share here. The 'country boys' around here hire them as their work crew and make good money off it. Its' an easy way to start your own business with a small bit of cash: Get the customers (who all speak only English) and hire some illegals cheaply and supervise them. They find one illegal who can speak English and make him a supervisor/foreman to tell the others what to do in Spanish.

You pretty much just described the 'new and improved, progressive-idiot sanctioned slave trade, wrapped up with an "It's a civil rights issue!" bow for good measure. It amazes me how one of history's worst negatives has now become "How dare you not support this you racist!"

The only real differences is they've upgraded "slave here by force that you 'own' and have to (barely) take care of" with "illegal alien lured in across a border that you exploit and don't give a shit about because more will come lured in by amnesty promises willing to work for even less."

Turning decent high paying jobs into... "Jobs Americans won't do.... for pennies on the dollar" for fun and profit and for 'Civil Rights!' Yay!

Like I said, watching a nation slit it's own throat is a sad thing.

 

[mshan]

Plain English summary of today's jobs report:

"The U.S. unemployment rate edged down from 7.39 percent in July to 7.28 percent in August, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decrease did not, however, reflect an across-the-board strengthening of the labor market. According to the BLS household survey, the civilian labor force, the number of unemployed, and the number of employed all decreased slightly for the month, both before and after seasonal adjustment. The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio also decreased on the month.

The BLS also publishes data on a broader measure of unemployment and undermployment known as U-6. That measure takes into account people who are working part-time but would prefer full-time work, and so-called marginally attached workers. The latter incude people who have not looked for work because they think none is available and people who would like a job and are available for work, but who did not look for work in the previous four weeks because of study, family responsibilities, or other reasons. Both involuntary part-time workers and marginally attached workers decreased for the month, bringing U-6 to 13.7 percent. As the next chart shows, that also was a new low for the recovery.

According to the separate survey of business establishments, the number of payroll jobs grew by 169,000 during August. The establishment survey excludes farm workers and the self-employed, does not correct for workers holding two jobs, and differs in other details of methodology. It is not unusual for the household employment data and the payroll jobs data to point in opposite directions. Previously reported payroll jobs gains for June and July were revised downward by a total of 74,000 for the two months. As the next chart shows, the August job growth was slightly below the average of 184,000 per month of the preceding year.

Most of the new payroll jobs were in the service sector, with retail trade, professional and business services, and healthcare showing some of the strongest gains. Manufacturing showed a small increase in jobs while construction was flat. Government employment gained, largely on growth of local government education. Federal government employment was unchanged.

Not too much can be read into any one month’s jobs numbers. The surveys on which they are based are subject to sampling error and later revisions. Considering these caveats, the August employment situation is consistent with pattern of the past two years—slow but steady growth with a considerable distance to go before the economy reaches anything that we could reasonably describe as “full employment.”


http://www.economonitor.com/dolanec...t-a-new-low-for-recovery#sthash.ktv3JDkm.dpuf

 

[piasabird]

Just give out more foodstamps.