U.S. Economy Grew at 3.2% Rate in the 4th Quarter

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,336
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/business/economy/29econ.html?src=busln

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of all the goods and services produced by the economy, grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 2.6 percent in the previous period, according to the Commerce Department.

While an improvement, the latest output number was slightly below analysts’ expectations of 3.5 percent.

Consumer spending grew at an annual rate of 4.4 percent, its fasted pace in nearly five years and nearly double the rate from the previous quarter. As income rose and the stock market climbed, Americans felt comfortable spending again, and in some cases by dipping into their savings.
Do the economists think there's still the possibility of a double dip?
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
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Commodity price increases such as food and energy have blown up PCE on necessities most by financed by increasing debt. Really it's not good news when matched up with employment #s.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the third.


Take out the PCE from GDP 3.2 - 2.1 and it's 1.1% annualized, which is almost-exactly the growth in population....

Thats an actual zero %.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


Keep the faith tho. Positive thinking is good but prepare for worst.
 
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DesiPower

Lifer
Nov 22, 2008
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It might, its a jobless growth, the joblessness will catch up again after few years when these people have no more money at all to survive...
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
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Commodity price increases such as food and energy have blown up PCE on necessities most by financed by increasing debt. Really it's not good news when matched up with employment #s.




Take out the PCE from GDP 3.2 - 2.1 and it's 1.1% annualized, which is almost-exactly the growth in population....

Thats an actual zero %.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm


Keep the faith tho. Positive thinking is good but prepare for worst.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010,
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

- People who do not understand finance/economics spreading FUD about finance/economics are better off just staying quiet. You're about as bad as the guys who were running around claiming that we were losing 500k/jobs/mo without realizing that a big portion of that is natural turnover (~300-400k).
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,185
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I think the more important number is that the GDP in 2005 chained dollars (the statistic used to get the 3.2% growth number) is at its highest point ever. That is, GDP has never been this high in raw terms or in inflation adjusted terms. In terms of GDP the recession has vanished. Of course, there are many other ways to measure a recession as well though.

Note: I have always argued that the more important number is (GDP + private deficit + public deficit) per capita. Does anyone have a good link to that data?
 

RbSX

Diamond Member
Jan 18, 2002
8,351
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If that rate can be sustained, Job Growth should grow nicely.

True, but misleading, since jobs are being offshored, or when jobs created pay significantly less.

The other issue here is the cost of servicing debt, and the increasing portion of GDP required to pay for Social Security and Medicaid/care is going to outstrip what the economy can afford in the next 2 decades.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
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Really? 22 trillion in debt in 4 years?
What nick implied was that the Republicans will take office in 2 years and then REALLY show us how to run up debt. Lets all cut taxes down to 0% and then barely scratch the surface of spending. That'll solve everything!
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
36,099
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If that rate can be sustained, Job Growth should grow nicely.

Yay government run economy. How many trillions of dollars per job?

I do not think we should be happy to watch an inflated bubble making the economy move.
 

bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
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waiting for: meaningful spending cuts and effective budgeting, cut to foreign aid, raising of taxes, REAL HEALTHCARE REFORM(40million uninsured is a SYMPTOM not a PROBLEM). these are my big things.

We really need to figure out what we can do to compete with the world in manufacturing and I'd love to see some work being done towards that. I'm almost positive we'll have to enact some protectionist measures, but hopefully we could figure out some sort of compromise which wouldn't be to disruptive.
 

nick1985

Lifer
Dec 29, 2002
27,153
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What nick implied was that the Republicans will take office in 2 years and then REALLY show us how to run up debt. Lets all cut taxes down to 0% and then barely scratch the surface of spending. That'll solve everything!

I take it you are fine with current spending.

And don't mistake me for a republican either. Both sides suck, you just won't admit it.
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,839
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/business/economy/29econ.html?src=busln


Do the economists think there's still the possibility of a double dip?

I don't think anyone of any real repute has ever predicted a double dip this recession. The talking heads on TV dwell on it constantly but they have an ulterior motive-thier ratings (thus job and income) are driven by controversy.

That said, we are not out of the woods yet by a long shot. Not until the housing market gets back on its feet (by eliminating the huge inventory, both real and that of foreclosures waiting to be started) can we hope for anything more that a high unemployment, flat economy.

Those that dwell on the national debt are confusing long term and short term. Right now the amount of the debt has absolutely no effect-our inflation rate is very low without any prospects of any sharp changes upward in the near term future (next year or two).
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,185
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I take it you are fine with current spending.

And don't mistake me for a republican either. Both sides suck, you just won't admit it.
I personally think both sides suck too. I've said that many times. I don't know why you think I wouldn't say that.

In the last few decades federal spending has been about 21% of GDP (See table 1.2 starting on page 24). To me, 21% is a bit high but changing it drastically and quickly is too harmful for our country (see what happened in the late 1930s when rapid austerity put us back into a second depression). We should strive for about 20% for now (better than average and we can strive for lower later on if needed). As of last year, GDP was running at $14.87 trillion, so 20% of that is $3 trillion. We are spending about $3.7 trillion this year. So we are overspending by $700 billion.

I personally think it is ok to overspend on some years IF AND ONLY IF you are realistically going to underspend in other years. To do that, we need to put social security and medicare back to where they were originally intended: for when you live past the expected lifespan. On the flip side military spending needs to be realistic (we can be the biggest in the world without being more than the whole world combined). I want to save $10s of trillions, not the measily few billions proposed by Obama or even the TEA party. Neither one is thinking long term and they are bickering about chump change. $700 billion is nothing compared to what is coming down the line. Forget the chump change (especially with the fragile economy that needs that chump change now) and fix the real problems.

In the mean time, we shouldn't fool ourselves. If we are going to support spending (social programs and military) we should take the pain of big taxes. Only once taxes meet spending will enough people be willing to cut spending meaningfully. As it is now, too few people demand spending cuts because few people are paying taxes for the high spending YET. Bush and Obama are both kings of violating that simple rule: they spend far more while bringing in far less. A tax cut does not help ANYONE one bit unless it is matched by a spending cut (because we are just mortgaging ourselves). And we've seen tax cut after tax cut from BOTH sides for the last 10 years with no matching spending cuts.
 
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RbSX

Diamond Member
Jan 18, 2002
8,351
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I don't think anyone of any real repute has ever predicted a double dip this recession. The talking heads on TV dwell on it constantly but they have an ulterior motive-thier ratings (thus job and income) are driven by controversy.

That said, we are not out of the woods yet by a long shot. Not until the housing market gets back on its feet (by eliminating the huge inventory, both real and that of foreclosures waiting to be started) can we hope for anything more that a high unemployment, flat economy.

Those that dwell on the national debt are confusing long term and short term. Right now the amount of the debt has absolutely no effect-our inflation rate is very low without any prospects of any sharp changes upward in the near term future (next year or two).

http://business.financialpost.com/2...recession-is-officially-coming-analyst-warns/

John P. Hussman, President of Hussman Investment Trust


Double-dip recession ‘practically inevitable’: UBS -- http://business.financialpost.com/2010/06/08/double-dip-recession-practically-inevitable-ubs/

http://business.financialpost.com/2...erg-raises-odds-of-doube-dip-recession-to-67/

David Rosenberg - chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates



What pipe have you been smoking? It's not to say that maybe they are wrong, but people of repute have come out and suggested it.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,948
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I personally think both sides suck too. I've said that many times. I don't know why you think I wouldn't say that.

If you want some real lulz look up nick talking about how good it is to go to war in iraq. Now that his party isnt in power hes all anti establishment but in reality he's just another neocon with cognitive dissonance.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Commodity price increases such as food and energy have blown up PCE on necessities most by financed by increasing debt.

Really it's not good news when matched up with employment #s.

It might, its a jobless growth, the joblessness will catch up again after few years when these people have no more money at all to survive...

What's happening in Egypt will be nothing compared to the U.S. when reach the tipping point here.