Well thankfully the Xbox Series X news seemed to mention 60 fps or higher but we'll see how much that guideline/target is adhered to.
I feel your problem there is that you are (unknowingly?) conflating PC with Windows 10 there. I'm primarily a Linux user, and I see a lot of optimization potential for PC gaming on OS level.
We're discussing different things. I was referring to developer (game) side optimizations and design rules.
I understand that whole argument that developers will just get lazy and won't optimize as hard, but there's so much of an increase in resources from the CPU side that it's hard to imagine that happening right away.
I guess I'm on the more pessimistic side of this.
Take for instance the physics discussion in this thread. That is a design aspect that is comparatively easy to leverage which can saturate the new hardware's capabilities.
Actually that will make porting games from console to PC way easier. Zen 2 on console to Zen 2 on PC. Done and dusted.
Note that PC gaming performance will always be "a console generation" ahead of consoles due to the PCs rapid iteration and modular nature. PCs and consoles will be similar for all of one year and then *BOOM* Zen 3 and RTX-3080s will hit the shelves. Also, PCs should have better GPUs and cooling, therefore faster running components and better gaming performance.
The issue isn't getting the games running on the PC. Also I can see this acting as an unintended consequence in that it doesn't cost much more port (as in running) relative to how much to optimize (run well, PC specific tuning). So yes everything will get ported as it'll be easy to recoup those costs but it doesn't need to run well (less rate of return).
While I still see high gen to gen growth rates for GPUs I don't feel the same for CPUs. Core count and therefore aggregate core performance will likely scale up but not so much per core performance. Just using the Xbox Series X figures we can conservatively conclude that Ryzen 3 on a per core basis is well over 3x that in the current consoles. We simply are not going to see anywhere near that wide of a per core gap barring some fundamental tech breakthrough within the next 6 years.
I think most 30 fps next-gen games should be 30 fps because of the GPU, so the PC version will see significantly better framerates.
But you're right, it's gonna be much harder to have very high frame rates, and that should be a good thing. PC gamers have been complaining since the PS3 era that PC games are held back because of consoles. If a developer fully uses the CPU to create a 30 fps game, that should be a very interesting game regarding its logic. And if the PC version is only able to run at 45 fps, that's not too bad with freesync
I'm not so sure about the GPU. What we are already seeing and will see more coming back is "smarter" use of GPU resources via dynamic quality adjustments. Next gen consoles will likely much more heavily leverage those techniques so that effective GPU capability is higher than the raw improvements.
I will concede that the how much FPS argument (and really this is an age old argument) is going to be a preference thing and so not everyone will share the same concerns. It's just that personally for me now that I've not only been used to a consistent 60 for years and years now and even beyond it that the motion quality at 45 (variable refresh or not) much less 30 leaves much to be desired.