So, it turns out that upsetting people who can find your deepest darkest secrets, and people who can broadcast your deepest darkest secrets to the world, isn't necessarily a smart idea. Who knew?!
Yes, we all knew Trump et al are showing arrogance - but they were so arrogant, and so out of their depth, that they thought they could fight the intelligence community and win. The NSA, CIA, FBI, whoever probably has incendiary, possibly criminal stuff on Trump going back decades, but are just waiting for the right moment to use it. Trump was in the private sector and so was never scrutinized or vetted like a normal politician would be, under a constant spotlight most of their career. They, of course, don't give a shit if he broke the law for some arcane real estate transaction 5 years ago, but they do want him compromised, to pin him against the wall at any time. There's almost no way Trumps phone isn't compromised and broadcasting everything, all the time, to God knows where. Right now it's probably only State actors - Russian, American, Chinese? - and they're going to sit on that, too, and let it build. Why show your cards if you don't have to?
It's plausible that more than one person has Trumpy by the shorthairs, and he really honestly doesn't know what to do. He's highly concerned about his personal reputation, he has no idea how the federal government works, he has no clue about international relations. Therefore, he's leaning on some wacky-fucking ducks to get him up to speed and lead him out of this, and he's leaning on them because they're the ones who are most-effectively stroking his terrified little mind and ego with the possibilities of being an historic "change maker."
But there are so many crossed signals and conflicting bits of information coming out of this White House that it's only a matter of time before this shit show explodes. He has the whole world looking at him, and he has no idea what to do. He might not have been behind this whole Russian thing, but he damn well knew about it. Bannon, Miller, Manafort, Flynn...this is one spectacular shit show.