Trump Approval Rating Watch thread.

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J.Wilkins

J.Wilkins

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
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vi edit said:
The thing to remember is that he won by less than 100,000 votes over three states. If you want to talk razor thin margins...that's pretty fucking thin. We got 3 more years for Boomers to die off. They are croaking at a rate of 10,000 A DAY. That's just 10 days of votes.

The real battlefield to watch will be voter rolls and suppression. That's the ugly underbelly of real manipulation.
Click to expand...

The majority he has is growing and it's young people, not old people. The people marching for him are 20-30 year olds, most of them out of a job and they REALLY don't want a new one but they want to keep blaming immigrants for not having one.

It's the same everywhere.
 
Indus

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
9,891
6,468
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vi edit said:
The thing to remember is that he won by less than 100,000 votes over three states. If you want to talk razor thin margins...that's pretty fucking thin. We got 3 more years for Boomers to die off. They are croaking at a rate of 10,000 A DAY. That's just 10 days of votes.

The real battlefield to watch will be voter rolls and suppression. That's the ugly underbelly of real manipulation.
Click to expand...

Very true but people also move states. Rust belt states have lost people who relocated to NC, FL, TX etc. I don't think TX is in play but FL, NC could very well be.
 
vi edit

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,387
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Indus said:
Very true but people also move states. Rust belt states have lost people who relocated to NC, FL, TX etc. I don't think TX is in play but FL, NC could very well be.
Click to expand...

Keep an eye on pissed of Puerto Ricans moving to Florida. That could shift votes there.
 
Indus

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
9,891
6,468
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J.Wilkins said:
The majority he has is growing and it's young people, not old people. The people marching for him are 20-30 year olds, most of them out of a job and they REALLY don't want a new one but they want to keep blaming immigrants for not having one.

It's the same everywhere.
Click to expand...

I disagree with that. Unlike Europe.. American demographics are different. The young generation is 2:1 against him but they are too lazy to vote and love partying and smoking. In the mean time their student debt is off the charts.

Enough motivation there for the right candidate with the right solution could turn the election around like it did for Obama.
 
A

alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
12,636
3,032
136
Indus said:
I disagree with that. Unlike Europe.. American demographics are different. The young generation is 2:1 against him but they are too lazy to vote and love partying and smoking. In the mean time their student debt is off the charts.

Enough motivation there for the right candidate with the right solution could turn the election around like it did for Obama.
Click to expand...

one problem with that is the young generation is actually partying and smoking less.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,021
32,993
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vi edit said:
Keep an eye on pissed of Puerto Ricans moving to Florida. That could shift votes there.
Click to expand...

I think all the figures saying 100K Puerto Ricans moving to FL will be proved way way low based on everything I've read from the island. PR already had a net outflow of 70-80K per year before all this happened.

By all accounts they seem very pissed already.
 
Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
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Indus said:
I disagree with that. Unlike Europe.. American demographics are different. The young generation is 2:1 against him but they are too lazy to vote and love partying and smoking. In the mean time their student debt is off the charts.

Enough motivation there for the right candidate with the right solution could turn the election around like it did for Obama.
Click to expand...

I think when people approach the issue of voter disengagement with more seriousness than "they're lazy", they'll be much closer to understanding the real reasons we have Trump as our president, as opposed to Russia or the EC.
 
Indus

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
9,891
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Blackjack200 said:
I think when people approach the issue of voter disengagement with more seriousness than "they're lazy", they'll be much closer to understanding the real reasons we have Trump as our president, as opposed to Russia or the EC.
Click to expand...

You're actually telling me kids missed classes or work to vote?

It needs to be a federal holiday.
 
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dainthomas

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,589
3,421
136
Indus said:
You're actually telling me kids missed classes or work to vote?

It needs to be a federal holiday.
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Republicans would NEVER let this happen. They're not trying to cram through voter ID laws and cutting polling places to make it easier for the poor to vote.
 
UNCjigga

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
24,810
9,015
136
Indus said:
Very true but people also move states. Rust belt states have lost people who relocated to NC, FL, TX etc. I don't think TX is in play but FL, NC could very well be.
Click to expand...

I'm still not convinced NC would be in play, not until I see what happens with redistricting, and whether we get any real changes in the GA in 2018 (I don't think NC has a real shot of turning blue until after the next census.)

Our General Assembly is a joke--try to imagine Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows with an army of clones, who take over Congress and gain a supermajority in the House and Senate. That's what NC has been living with since gerrymandering got worse after 2010.
 
Indus

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
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dainthomas said:
Republicans would NEVER let this happen. They're not trying to cram through voter ID laws and cutting polling places to make it easier for the poor to vote.
Click to expand...

Which is why we need to break apart their hold on the USA now.
 
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Meghan54

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,527
5,045
136
UNCjigga said:
I'm still not convinced NC would be in play, not until I see what happens with redistricting, and whether we get any real changes in the GA in 2018 (I don't think NC has a real shot of turning blue until after the next census.)

Our General Assembly is a joke--try to imagine Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows with an army of clones, who take over Congress and gain a supermajority in the House and Senate. That's what NC has been living with since gerrymandering got worse after 2010.
Click to expand...


Your post reminded me of this:

AAtgjYN.img
 
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woolfe9998

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,188
14,091
136
Don't want to start a new thread on it, but we should be looking at the generic Congressional polling, which will be the most predictive of next year's midterm outcomes:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

To put this in perspective, 6 months ago the dems were around +8. Fivethirtyeight says the dems are at even chance to retake the House if they're at +8. Currently the average is +12. Latest Fox News poll has the dems at +15.
 
I

interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,016
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Yeah...even more telling to me is that only 5% are neutral. Where's the tipping point that the Republican mainstream and media start dumping on Trump in hopes of jettisoning him? Sadly, I don't see that 33% changing all that much. That base is not people who really see Trump's accomplishments and character as great, it's the people whose belief in Trump is supported purely by their fear of the alternative. And conservative media is doing their part to ramp up the evil conspiracies of the left.
 
A

alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
12,636
3,032
136
S

Stokely

Golden Member
Jun 5, 2017
1,573
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I don't get to hopeful with these shrinking numbers...Trump is the same ol Trump, so that tells me people are incredibly fickle, stupid and ignorant to suddenly change their minds about him...why, exactly, when he's been so consistently Trump? You liked him before and you hate him now, when he hasn't changed on iota (?) So since I don't understand why they suddenly don't like him, I figure they could just as inexplicably go back to supporting him.
 
V

Victorian Gray

Lifer
Nov 25, 2013
32,083
11,718
136
alien42 said:
i'd agree that his base is shrinking, albeit slowly. i also watch 538s avg like a hawk and every time it hits a new low i post it in this thread. that being said, the 538 average does have a little lag in it and i do expect a new record low in the next month.
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It occasionally goes up a percent or so and goes down a percent or so but his base has consistently been at around 38% since May. I suspect that at his worst it might bottom out at no lower than around 33-34%.
 
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