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Trump Approval Rating Watch thread.

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J.Wilkins

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,681
640
91
The thing to remember is that he won by less than 100,000 votes over three states. If you want to talk razor thin margins...that's pretty fucking thin. We got 3 more years for Boomers to die off. They are croaking at a rate of 10,000 A DAY. That's just 10 days of votes.

The real battlefield to watch will be voter rolls and suppression. That's the ugly underbelly of real manipulation.
The majority he has is growing and it's young people, not old people. The people marching for him are 20-30 year olds, most of them out of a job and they REALLY don't want a new one but they want to keep blaming immigrants for not having one.

It's the same everywhere.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,650
2,133
136
The thing to remember is that he won by less than 100,000 votes over three states. If you want to talk razor thin margins...that's pretty fucking thin. We got 3 more years for Boomers to die off. They are croaking at a rate of 10,000 A DAY. That's just 10 days of votes.

The real battlefield to watch will be voter rolls and suppression. That's the ugly underbelly of real manipulation.
Very true but people also move states. Rust belt states have lost people who relocated to NC, FL, TX etc. I don't think TX is in play but FL, NC could very well be.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
60,951
4,481
126
Very true but people also move states. Rust belt states have lost people who relocated to NC, FL, TX etc. I don't think TX is in play but FL, NC could very well be.
Keep an eye on pissed of Puerto Ricans moving to Florida. That could shift votes there.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,650
2,133
136
The majority he has is growing and it's young people, not old people. The people marching for him are 20-30 year olds, most of them out of a job and they REALLY don't want a new one but they want to keep blaming immigrants for not having one.

It's the same everywhere.
I disagree with that. Unlike Europe.. American demographics are different. The young generation is 2:1 against him but they are too lazy to vote and love partying and smoking. In the mean time their student debt is off the charts.

Enough motivation there for the right candidate with the right solution could turn the election around like it did for Obama.
 

alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
11,857
1,803
126
I disagree with that. Unlike Europe.. American demographics are different. The young generation is 2:1 against him but they are too lazy to vote and love partying and smoking. In the mean time their student debt is off the charts.

Enough motivation there for the right candidate with the right solution could turn the election around like it did for Obama.
one problem with that is the young generation is actually partying and smoking less.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
35,157
8,464
136
Keep an eye on pissed of Puerto Ricans moving to Florida. That could shift votes there.
I think all the figures saying 100K Puerto Ricans moving to FL will be proved way way low based on everything I've read from the island. PR already had a net outflow of 70-80K per year before all this happened.

By all accounts they seem very pissed already.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,991
1,656
126
I disagree with that. Unlike Europe.. American demographics are different. The young generation is 2:1 against him but they are too lazy to vote and love partying and smoking. In the mean time their student debt is off the charts.

Enough motivation there for the right candidate with the right solution could turn the election around like it did for Obama.
I think when people approach the issue of voter disengagement with more seriousness than "they're lazy", they'll be much closer to understanding the real reasons we have Trump as our president, as opposed to Russia or the EC.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,650
2,133
136
I think when people approach the issue of voter disengagement with more seriousness than "they're lazy", they'll be much closer to understanding the real reasons we have Trump as our president, as opposed to Russia or the EC.
You're actually telling me kids missed classes or work to vote?

It needs to be a federal holiday.
 
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dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
13,763
1,920
126
You're actually telling me kids missed classes or work to vote?

It needs to be a federal holiday.
Republicans would NEVER let this happen. They're not trying to cram through voter ID laws and cutting polling places to make it easier for the poor to vote.
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
22,531
4,699
136
Very true but people also move states. Rust belt states have lost people who relocated to NC, FL, TX etc. I don't think TX is in play but FL, NC could very well be.
I'm still not convinced NC would be in play, not until I see what happens with redistricting, and whether we get any real changes in the GA in 2018 (I don't think NC has a real shot of turning blue until after the next census.)

Our General Assembly is a joke--try to imagine Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows with an army of clones, who take over Congress and gain a supermajority in the House and Senate. That's what NC has been living with since gerrymandering got worse after 2010.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,650
2,133
136
Republicans would NEVER let this happen. They're not trying to cram through voter ID laws and cutting polling places to make it easier for the poor to vote.
Which is why we need to break apart their hold on the USA now.
 
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Meghan54

Diamond Member
Oct 18, 2009
9,483
2,292
136
I'm still not convinced NC would be in play, not until I see what happens with redistricting, and whether we get any real changes in the GA in 2018 (I don't think NC has a real shot of turning blue until after the next census.)

Our General Assembly is a joke--try to imagine Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows with an army of clones, who take over Congress and gain a supermajority in the House and Senate. That's what NC has been living with since gerrymandering got worse after 2010.

Your post reminded me of this:

 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,835
6,293
136
Don't want to start a new thread on it, but we should be looking at the generic Congressional polling, which will be the most predictive of next year's midterm outcomes:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

To put this in perspective, 6 months ago the dems were around +8. Fivethirtyeight says the dems are at even chance to retake the House if they're at +8. Currently the average is +12. Latest Fox News poll has the dems at +15.
 

interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
7,287
2,000
136
Yeah...even more telling to me is that only 5% are neutral. Where's the tipping point that the Republican mainstream and media start dumping on Trump in hopes of jettisoning him? Sadly, I don't see that 33% changing all that much. That base is not people who really see Trump's accomplishments and character as great, it's the people whose belief in Trump is supported purely by their fear of the alternative. And conservative media is doing their part to ramp up the evil conspiracies of the left.
 

alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
11,857
1,803
126

Stokely

Senior member
Jun 5, 2017
796
611
106
I don't get to hopeful with these shrinking numbers...Trump is the same ol Trump, so that tells me people are incredibly fickle, stupid and ignorant to suddenly change their minds about him...why, exactly, when he's been so consistently Trump? You liked him before and you hate him now, when he hasn't changed on iota (?) So since I don't understand why they suddenly don't like him, I figure they could just as inexplicably go back to supporting him.
 
Nov 25, 2013
32,083
11,714
136
i'd agree that his base is shrinking, albeit slowly. i also watch 538s avg like a hawk and every time it hits a new low i post it in this thread. that being said, the 538 average does have a little lag in it and i do expect a new record low in the next month.
It occasionally goes up a percent or so and goes down a percent or so but his base has consistently been at around 38% since May. I suspect that at his worst it might bottom out at no lower than around 33-34%.
 

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