Trump Already Hitting Clinton Where She's Vulnerable

[Sinsear]

So you up for a wager on the election? I seem to recall reading that you were not, but I would bet $1,000 cash against you that Trump is not elected.

http://nypost.com/2016/05/04/heres-what-bookies-think-of-a-trump-clinton-showdown

Bookmakers have Hillary as a heavy favorite

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

http://nypost.com/2016/05/04/heres-what-bookies-think-of-a-trump-clinton-showdown/

Bookmakers have Hillary as a heavy favorite

Yeah, the election markets have the same prediction. http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/ On the other hand, Trump was a distinct underdog to win the nomination six months ago, and yet it has happened. I still think Hillary will win decisively but one never knows.

 

[fskimospy]

Yeah, the election markets have the same prediction. http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/ On the other hand, Trump was a distinct underdog to win the nomination six months ago, and yet it has happened. I still think Hillary will win decisively but one never knows.

All bets are just statements of probability. I think Clinton is very likely to win but it's by no means certain. If Speedy is as confident as he claims to be he has a significant opportunity to make money as the betting markets are paying at significantly better odds than what he apparently believes the true odds are.

My guess is that he won't put his money where his mouth is though because I'm pretty sure this is mostly an exercise in him compensating for his insecurity. I mean why else would someone keep making these grandiose claims?

 

[Ancalagon44]

I personally think Trump is going to win the election and became the next POTUS.

I don't personally support him. I don't agree with his policies. But I think he is going to win the election regardless of that.

Mostly it is going to come down to who America hates less. Trump is going to manage to convince voters that they hate an offensive businessman less than they hate an old white woman.

The problem with Hilary is that she isn't really notable. She doesn't stand out. Obama was notable for his sheer charisma and oratory ability. Trump is notable for how polarizing he is - people either hate him or love him. Hilary - what is she famous for? Her husband used to be POTUS and cheated on her. She's a feminist. What else?

It's going to count against her.

 

[dank69]

It's this bizarre coincidence that happens over and over and over. Evil stupid things that happen when Democrats are in charge are always really done by Republicans. This happens continually. It's quite the phenomenon.

It's like hearing a crash in the living room, running in to see two of your kids standing there looking at the broken lamp and when you ask who did that, they say it was their sibling who isn't even at home. And they really think you'll believe this!

Not really so mysterious when you don't subscribe to revisionist history the way you and werepossum do. Democrats often compromise with Rebublicans by passing their shit legislation and then when it fails the GOP tries to pretend they weren't the ones that pressed for it in the first place.

 

[vi edit]

The problem with Hilary is that she isn't really notable. She doesn't stand out. Obama was notable for his sheer charisma and oratory ability. Trump is notable for how polarizing he is - people either hate him or love him. Hilary - what is she famous for? Her husband used to be POTUS and cheated on her. She's a feminist. What else?

I'm not sure about your definition of "Notable". She's the first woman to have a legitimate chance at being POTUS. She's married to Bill Clinton, one of *THE* most notable presidents in modern history. She has the Clinton name. Good, bad or indifferent those are distinguishing features. Now she may have the personality of a cardboard cutout...but people do know who she is.

 

[Ancalagon44]

I'm not sure about your definition of "Notable". She's the first woman to have a legitimate chance at being POTUS. She's married to Bill Clinton, one of *THE* most notable presidents in modern history. She has the Clinton name. Good, bad or indifferent those are distinguishing features. Now she may have the personality of a cardboard cutout...but people do know who she is.

They know her, but is that enough? They know of her, but they have a strong opinion of Trump, and that is an important difference.

Trump just has the convince the people that are already paying attention to him, that he is the better candidate. Hilary has to convince people to pay attention to her first.

 

[thraashman]

All bets are just statements of probability. I think Clinton is very likely to win but it's by no means certain. If Speedy is as confident as he claims to be he has a significant opportunity to make money as the betting markets are paying at significantly better odds than what he apparently believes the true odds are.

My guess is that he won't put his money where his mouth is though because I'm pretty sure this is mostly an exercise in him compensating for his insecurity. I mean why else would someone keep making these grandiose claims?

Actually this might be worth doing. Placing a large bet on Trump to win the general. That way if he wins, I'll make a large chunk of money. And if he loses, then the country and my financial stability will be so much better off that it'd be like I placed a bet.

 

[zinfamous]

I personally think Trump is going to win the election and became the next POTUS.

I don't personally support him. I don't agree with his policies. But I think he is going to win the election regardless of that.

Mostly it is going to come down to who America hates less. Trump is going to manage to convince voters that they hate an offensive businessman less than they hate an old white woman.

The problem with Hilary is that she isn't really notable. She doesn't stand out. Obama was notable for his sheer charisma and oratory ability. Trump is notable for how polarizing he is - people either hate him or love him. Hilary - what is she famous for? Her husband used to be POTUS and cheated on her. She's a feminist. What else?

It's going to count against her.

Why is Hilary the "old white woman" when Trump is actually older than her, and basically "the old white man" that the USA historically elects?

I get that the public is stupid and easily duped by things like "I'm high energy!" and "I have large hands!" ...but I don't see them ignoring the metric shit-ton of Trump's own words, from his own mouth, levied against him daily in attack ads from now until November, ad nauseam.

The gap is certainly going to close a bit, but I don't see him being able to effectively pivot in any significant way outside of the white, male demographic. No hispanic, black or female voter is going to suddenly switch to him after he has so repeatedly made no vague assertions as to his profound distaste for such people.

...good luck with that.

This "Trump is strong and demolished all opponents!" mantra comes from the same people that believe the Clintons are some kind of organized crime syndicate that murders their rivals left and right. It's weird that the same group of people believe this profound numbskullery, yet also think Trump is somehow unassailable against such "evil, dirty, murderous" people. It's also convenient to ignore the decades of assaults and character assassinations levied against Hillary, and yet here she is, nary a scratch and about to claim the top political prize in the world. Yet, somehow, this man that can never move past a decades-old jibe about the size of his hands is somehow going to out-insult her?

lol.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

It all going to come down to turn out. If it's like it was in 2012 Hillary will most likely win, if it's like 2014 Trump could possibly win. Also it will affected on whether or not youth voter decide to write in Sanders.

 

[zinfamous]

Trump will easily carry Repub women as he's continued to do in the primary. Not to mention that he's pulling twice the other party vs hillary according to recent polling and yes, that will also include women.

So he's divided republican women in the republican primaries and is a 90-100% loser among democratic and independent women.

real winner you go there, Sparky.

 

[zinfamous]

It all going to come down to turn out. If it's like it was in 2012 Hillary will most likely win, if it's like 2014 Trump could possibly win. Also it will affected on whether or not youth voter decide to write in Sanders.

2014 is irrelevant because comparing a mid-term to a national presidential election is folly. 2014 is like 2010 is like 2006 is like 2002 and so on, when the incumbent party is almost universally laisez-fare about voting, and the opponents almost always show up and replace House and Senate seats. That, and it is almost always republican-favored because old white people tend to vote in every single election at a higher rate than all other demographics.

 

[bshole]

ATPN is basically entirely white men. No, not 100%, but close.

It is pretty funny to watch these same people try to speak for America.

??? The Constitution was written entirely by white men and has dominated and directed the way this country has been run for over 200 years. Just because a person is a white man does not mean they can't have good ideas. Hater......

 

[werepossum]

Derp de derp derp derp derp. You're grasping for straws here. Clinton has it in the bag. You sound about as stupid as the people who, the day before the Indiana primary, still thought that Cruz could win. Polling indicated he was going to get crushed, and get crushed he did.

Face it champ, it's going to be Trump vs. Hilary, and Hilary is going to wipe up the floor with him. It's possible Trump doesn't win a single state. It's amazing that you're so enamored by Trump that you think it's "a coin flip." It's not. It's a sure thing for Hilary barring some unforeseen catastrophe.

lol It's possible Trump doesn't win a single state in exactly the same manner that it's possible Hillary doesn't win a single state. She's the one person the Dems could have nominated whose negatives are and will remain nearly as high as Trump's. (Of course, from the other perspective the Pubbies have a whole host of people whose negatives are and will remain nearly as high as Hillary's and still managed to nominate one whose negatives are even higher, so the Dems retain the advantage in spite of themselves.)

Yes, he goofed up big time. Should've known better than try to work with republicans since they were the ones pushing it.

lol Dems goof because they're just too nice, Republicans are evil. Gotcha.

It's this bizarre coincidence that happens over and over and over. Evil stupid things that happen when Democrats are in charge are always really done by Republicans. This happens continually. It's quite the phenomenon.

It's like hearing a crash in the living room, running in to see two of your kids standing there looking at the broken lamp and when you ask who did that, they say it was their sibling who isn't even at home. And they really think you'll believe this!

Yup. Bizarre coincidence is an excellent description.

The Dems have their problems, but the strength of their media wing ain't one of them.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

??? The Constitution was written entirely by white men and has dominated and directed the way this country has been run for over 200 years. Just because a person is a white man does not mean they can't have good ideas. Hater......

Well go figure, the population has become significantly more homogenized and thusly, we may want to consider other input besides anglo-saxon males.

 

[zinfamous]

??? The Constitution was written entirely by white men and has dominated and directed the way this country has been run for over 200 years. Just because a person is a white man does not mean they can't have good ideas. Hater......

not at all what he said, but whatever.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Yup. Bizarre coincidence is an excellent description.

The Dems have their problems, but the strength of their media wing ain't one of them.

Is your implication that the right wing media doesn't do the same thing? Do you believe, say, Fox News or WorldNetDaily is even-handed in their reporting of what happens as between Democratic and Republican leaders?

 

[bshole]

Well go figure, the population has become significantly more homogenized and thusly, we may want to consider other input besides anglo-saxon males.

Of course we would. I'm just saying that my opinion should not count less just because I am a white male. Generally, opinions should be judged on their merit not on the messenger.

I wish it were homogenized but that just ain't so. In Milwaukee, there are sections that are black, sections that are Hispanic and sections that a Jewish. The demographics are NOT mixing, they are separating (at least here they are).

 

[zinfamous]

Of course we would. I'm just saying that my opinion should not count less just because I am a white male. Generally, opinions should be judged on their merit not on the messenger.

I wish it were homogenized but that just ain't so. In Milwaukee, there are sections that are black, sections that are Hispanic and sections that a Jewish. The demographics are NOT mixing, they are separating (at least here they are).

He didn't say that your opinion should count less.

He said that because AT demographic is predominantly white male, the opinions of those posting in AT aren't exactly representative of the country as a whole. What we post about living in the little bubbles that we live in essentially means jack-all to the total of the world that we live in.

 

[bshole]

He didn't say that your opinion should count less.

He said that because AT demographic is predominantly white male, the opinions of those posting in AT aren't exactly representative of the country as a whole. What we post about living in the little bubbles that we live in essentially means jack-all to the total of the world that we live in.

C'mon Zin, that just ain't so. We engineers are the BACKBONE of America. Without us, where would America be? We impact the world we live in far more than any other demographic. We basically run the damn thing. Don't be so dismissive of our contribution.

 

[bshole]

Zin,

I know I am being obtuse. That is purposeful. I am feeling playful today. Sorry about that....

 

[Exophase]

He didn't say that your opinion should count less.

He said that because AT demographic is predominantly white male, the opinions of those posting in AT aren't exactly representative of the country as a whole. What we post about living in the little bubbles that we live in essentially means jack-all to the total of the world that we live in.

I have a feeling you'd be super hard pressed to find anything that really resembles an online community that has demographics that look like those of the averages across America.

Even finding real world communities that look like that might take a while...

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

I have a feeling you'd be super hard pressed to find anything that really resembles an online community that has demographics that look like those of the averages across America.

Even finding real world communities that look like that might take a while...

Rogers Park in Chicago
http://statisticalatlas.com/neighborhood/Illinois/Chicago/Rogers-Park/Race-and-Ethnicity

It was a wonderful homogeneous mix.

 

[sm625]

If it were that simple for the american people to see what NAFTA really was, then we wouldnt have gotten CAFTA. But we did. People are just plain stupid. They follow the corporate media narrative which is designed to serve the very few people who actually did benefit from NAFTA. Clinton supporters cant see this. Their minds are physically incapable of discerning basic reality.

 

[Exophase]

Rogers Park in Chicago
http://statisticalatlas.com/neighborhood/Illinois/Chicago/Rogers-Park/Race-and-Ethnicity

It was a wonderful homogeneous mix.

That's still pretty far off of the average for America, although at least you could say there's a lot of healthy representation for the major racial demographics.

Really weird age demographics, I wonder what happened to make 15-17 so different from 18-19.