Toshiba to drop HD-DVD? Rumor from reliable source

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Gooberlx2

Originally posted by: buck

Originally posted by: Gooberlx2
Fine, but they better damn well still send me my 5 mail-in promo HD-DVDs for buying the 360 add-on.

Same for me, its been a long time, how long for you?

I just sent mine in about two weeks ago. So I expect it will be a very long time before I receive them, especially based on what you and many others have posted about their wait times. *sigh*

Don't worry, with all the recent announcements, they'll have warehouses full of extra HD DVD movies to fill those orders.

 

[TheTony]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
The market finds a way to move forward.

*cough* SACD *cough* DVD-Audio *cough*

Seriouisly, I hope HDM (either format, assuming BD matures a bit) does well. I just see it being a challenge in the short term, and it stands a risk of becoming simply a niche market. I think the DVD/VHS comparison is valid, but it's also true that HDM is an evolution of DVD, certainly moreso than DVD was to VHS, so the advantages are much less obvious to the average buyer.

 

[Slick5150]

Originally posted by: Xavier434

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Yes, but study after study has shown that even current HDTV owners don't see any reason to upgrade. So even if Blu-Ray players drop to <$200, most people are currently happy with their $50 DVD player and their collection of DVD movies, so you're still not going to get them on board.

When DVD launched, studies showed huge consumer interest even though most people said they were holding off until it dropped in price. When 70%+ of people that currently own HDTVs say they have no interest in upgrading to Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD at the time when the survey was done) regardless of price, then you've got a real problem.

DVDs were not subjected to a format war like this one. That alone means you are comparing apples and oranges. When the war ends and the prices drop you will see some serious sales increases amongst the entire customer pool. The demand will rise and it will rise a lot. Combine that with how SD channels are nearly extinct and you will also see HDTVs drop even more in price than you saw last year.

The format war had little to do with anything despite what either side would have had you believe. People don't see the same leap in improvement from DVD->HD as they did from VHS->DVD.

And SD channels are nearly extinct? Ummm.. What planet do you live on where the majority of TV stations are HD? Most people don't even own HDTVs, let alone subscribe to an HD package from cable/satellite, and even if they do, SD channels still far outweigh HD channels and will continue to for awhile yet.

 

[buck]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Gooberlx2

Originally posted by: buck

Originally posted by: Gooberlx2
Fine, but they better damn well still send me my 5 mail-in promo HD-DVDs for buying the 360 add-on.

Same for me, its been a long time, how long for you?

I just sent mine in about two weeks ago. So I expect it will be a very long time before I receive them, especially based on what you and many others have posted about their wait times. *sigh*

Don't worry, with all the recent announcements, they'll have warehouses full of extra HD DVD movies to fill those orders.

lol touche


I sent mine in Nov....

 

[Gooberlx2]

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Originally posted by: Xavier434

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Yes, but study after study has shown that even current HDTV owners don't see any reason to upgrade. So even if Blu-Ray players drop to <$200, most people are currently happy with their $50 DVD player and their collection of DVD movies, so you're still not going to get them on board.

When DVD launched, studies showed huge consumer interest even though most people said they were holding off until it dropped in price. When 70%+ of people that currently own HDTVs say they have no interest in upgrading to Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD at the time when the survey was done) regardless of price, then you've got a real problem.

DVDs were not subjected to a format war like this one. That alone means you are comparing apples and oranges. When the war ends and the prices drop you will see some serious sales increases amongst the entire customer pool. The demand will rise and it will rise a lot. Combine that with how SD channels are nearly extinct and you will also see HDTVs drop even more in price than you saw last year.

The format war had little to do with anything despite what either side would have had you believe. People don't see the same leap in improvement from DVD->HD as they did from VHS->DVD.

And SD channels are nearly extinct? Ummm.. What planet do you live on where the majority of TV stations are HD? Most people don't even own HDTVs, let alone subscribe to an HD package from cable/satellite, and even if they do, SD channels still far outweigh HD channels and will continue to for awhile yet.

I think he meant to say analog channels instead of SD. Analog is being phased out next year right?

 

[Slick5150]

Originally posted by: Gooberlx2

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Originally posted by: Xavier434

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Yes, but study after study has shown that even current HDTV owners don't see any reason to upgrade. So even if Blu-Ray players drop to <$200, most people are currently happy with their $50 DVD player and their collection of DVD movies, so you're still not going to get them on board.

When DVD launched, studies showed huge consumer interest even though most people said they were holding off until it dropped in price. When 70%+ of people that currently own HDTVs say they have no interest in upgrading to Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD at the time when the survey was done) regardless of price, then you've got a real problem.

DVDs were not subjected to a format war like this one. That alone means you are comparing apples and oranges. When the war ends and the prices drop you will see some serious sales increases amongst the entire customer pool. The demand will rise and it will rise a lot. Combine that with how SD channels are nearly extinct and you will also see HDTVs drop even more in price than you saw last year.

The format war had little to do with anything despite what either side would have had you believe. People don't see the same leap in improvement from DVD->HD as they did from VHS->DVD.

And SD channels are nearly extinct? Ummm.. What planet do you live on where the majority of TV stations are HD? Most people don't even own HDTVs, let alone subscribe to an HD package from cable/satellite, and even if they do, SD channels still far outweigh HD channels and will continue to for awhile yet.

I think he meant to say analog channels instead of SD. Analog is being phased out next year right?

Over their air analog broadcasts, yes.. If you have analog cable though, for example, that's not being affected.

 

[dainthomas]

Originally posted by: buck

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Gooberlx2

Originally posted by: buck

Originally posted by: Gooberlx2
Fine, but they better damn well still send me my 5 mail-in promo HD-DVDs for buying the 360 add-on.

Same for me, its been a long time, how long for you?

I just sent mine in about two weeks ago. So I expect it will be a very long time before I receive them, especially based on what you and many others have posted about their wait times. *sigh*

Don't worry, with all the recent announcements, they'll have warehouses full of extra HD DVD movies to fill those orders.

lol touche


I sent mine in Nov....

Me too and I received mine this week. You should get yours soon.

 

[TheAdvocate]

Got my freebies last week and can't wait for the announcement so I can build a huge, cheap HD library at minimal cost. Thanks to EA... err Sony for dishing out that $400mil to buyoff real choice and circumvent the capitalist model.

I will be plain old DVD after that, with no complaints. Not touching BR until the players are $30 and the movies are in the $1/night kiosk at the grocery store.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: TheTony

Originally posted by: jpeyton
The market finds a way to move forward.

*cough* SACD *cough* DVD-Audio *cough*

The simple answer to that is the audio market was targeting a high-end segment that was always small, and had no way of becoming mainstream. The market was also shifting more towards portability with the explosion of PMP sales. People were increasingly listening to music on their iPods, in their cars, etc.

The same can't be said for video. While it's true that people do watch videos on their iPods, it's not mainstream. People don't watch videos on the go as frequently. Percentage wise, almost the totality of video content is viewed in front of a TV set at home. The high-end segment in this case, HDTV, is becoming mainstream. Google News "HDTV sales" and you'll see the numbers are rising fast, while prices are dropping fast.

 

[Slick5150]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: TheTony

Originally posted by: jpeyton
The market finds a way to move forward.

*cough* SACD *cough* DVD-Audio *cough*

The simple answer to that is the audio market was targeting a high-end segment that was always small, and had no way of becoming mainstream. The market was also shifting more towards portability with the explosion of PMP sales. People were increasingly listening to music on their iPods, in their cars, etc.

The same can't be said for video. While it's true that people do watch videos on their iPods, it's not mainstream. People don't watch videos on the go as frequently. Percentage wise, almost the totality of video content is viewed in front of a TV set at home. The high-end segment in this case, HDTV, is becoming mainstream. Google News "HDTV sales" and you'll see the numbers are rising fast, while prices are dropping fast.

The same thing CAN be said for video. You're assuming that everyone that buys an HDTV knows exactly how to use it and subscribes to an HD service. That's simply untrue. Here are some results done by Scientific-Atlanta of a survey of HDTV owners.

* Close to one in four (28%) of HDTV owners reported that they did not get any special equipment from their service provider to watch HDTV channels because the picture quality was already improved with the purchase of an HDTV.

* 23% of HDTV owners did not invest in special equipment to watch HDTV channels because a message at the beginning of the programs they watch tells them that those programs are being broadcast in HD.

* Nearly one in five (18%) reported that they believed the HD television would give them high-definition channels without additional equipment.

And that's people who actually BOUGHT an HDTV, which last time I saw the numbers, was only around 18% of Americans who watch TV.

So yes, a Blu-Ray player would absolutely be viewed as a high-end "niche" product for the vast majority of people.

 

[jpeyton]

Slick5150, I have been wrong this entire time. Thanks for showing me the light.

I feel bad for all those huge billion dollar CE companies who don't have the vision you do. They are all throwing billions of dollars down the drain in this endeavor because they lack the knowledge that you possess.

Blu-Ray is destined for failure. HD DVD was the only hope for the industry.

Fin.

 

[buck]

Originally posted by: TheAdvocate
Got my freebies last week and can't wait for the announcement so I can build a huge, cheap HD library at minimal cost. Thanks to EA... err Sony for dishing out that $400mil to buyoff real choice and circumvent the capitalist model.

I will be plain old DVD after that, with no complaints. Not touching BR until the players are $30 and the movies are in the $1/night kiosk at the grocery store.

I plan on raiding the HD dvd sections as soon as the word gets out. I have been waiting to get planet earth and a few others for a while now...

 

[Slick5150]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Slick5150, I have been wrong this entire time. Thanks for showing me the light.

I feel bad for all those huge billion dollar CE companies who don't have the vision you do. They are all throwing billions of dollars down the drain in this endeavor because they lack the knowledge that you possess.

Blu-Ray is destined for failure. HD DVD was the only hope for the industry.

Fin.

Seriously, do you even read anything? HD-DVD had the exact same problem and why the format war was idiotic to begin with was that their real competition wasn't with each other, it was with the pre-established format that everyone already had and, according to the surveys that were done by the "huge billion dollar CE companies", had no intentions by large of upgrading from.

I never once in any of my posts said HD-DVD was better than Blu-Ray, would fare better than Blu-Ray, or anything even close to that. Had HD-DVD "prevailed" over Blu-Ray, I'd be saying the exact same thing that it hasn't won anything yet and has a huge uphill battle ahead to gain any significant market share.

Reading is FUNdamental. You should try it sometimes.

 

[91TTZ]

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Umm.. Did you even read my post? My point is that Blu-Ray isn't competing with HD-DVD, its competing with regular DVD and it is WAY WAY behind and studies show that most people don't have any interest in upgrading to it.

It's not really directly competing with DVD. If you're looking for a HD movie, you're going to buy a HD-DVD or Blu-ray... you're not going to buy a standard DVD. On the other hand if you don't have a HDTV, HD-DVD and Blu-ray will be meaningless to you.

 

[Slick5150]

Originally posted by: 91TTZ

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Umm.. Did you even read my post? My point is that Blu-Ray isn't competing with HD-DVD, its competing with regular DVD and it is WAY WAY behind and studies show that most people don't have any interest in upgrading to it.

It's not really directly competing with DVD. If you're looking for a HD movie, you're going to buy a HD-DVD or Blu-ray... you're not going to buy a standard DVD. On the other hand if you don't have a HDTV, HD-DVD and Blu-ray will be meaningless to you.

But that's my point, is that people are declaring Blu-Ray the "winner" as if now everyone will have to buy one. All it has won at this point is being the standard of what is currently a niche market. Whether that changes remains to be seen.

 

[dainthomas]

Originally posted by: buck

Originally posted by: TheAdvocate
Got my freebies last week and can't wait for the announcement so I can build a huge, cheap HD library at minimal cost. Thanks to EA... err Sony for dishing out that $400mil to buyoff real choice and circumvent the capitalist model.

I will be plain old DVD after that, with no complaints. Not touching BR until the players are $30 and the movies are in the $1/night kiosk at the grocery store.

I plan on raiding the HD dvd sections as soon as the word gets out. I have been waiting to get planet earth and a few others for a while now...

Fearless and Pan's Labyrinth are still on my list.

 

[Dacalo]

Originally posted by: Aikouka

Originally posted by: Viper GTS
Of course they didn't win because of it, but I'm glad it won nonetheless. The storage capacity of HD-DVD was already becoming an issue, so if we had to have just one I'd rather it be Blu-Ray.

Viper GTS

Current HD-DVD players support the 51GB discs. Current Blu-Ray players support the 50GB discs. Where's the issues?

Where did you hear current HD-DVD players support 51GB discs?

Although the HD DVD standard is final, engineers continue developing the technology. A 51 GB triple-layer spec was approved at the DVD Forums 40th Steering Committee Meeting (held on November 15th, 2007)[93]. However, no movies are currently scheduled for this disc type, and Toshiba has declined to say whether the 51 GB disc is compatible with existing drives and players.

Text

Don't you think Toshiba would have disclosed that 51GB is compatible with current players if that's the case? It would only help them.

 

[91TTZ]

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Originally posted by: 91TTZ

Originally posted by: Slick5150

Umm.. Did you even read my post? My point is that Blu-Ray isn't competing with HD-DVD, its competing with regular DVD and it is WAY WAY behind and studies show that most people don't have any interest in upgrading to it.

It's not really directly competing with DVD. If you're looking for a HD movie, you're going to buy a HD-DVD or Blu-ray... you're not going to buy a standard DVD. On the other hand if you don't have a HDTV, HD-DVD and Blu-ray will be meaningless to you.

But that's my point, is that people are declaring Blu-Ray the "winner" as if now everyone will have to buy one. All it has won at this point is being the standard of what is currently a niche market. Whether that changes remains to be seen.

That is true, but I think that the manufacturers know that winning the HD race in its infancy is nearly a guarantee to make big bucks in the future.

 

[Dacalo]

Originally posted by: Tobolo

Originally posted by: UNCjigga
If this is true, I predict the Xbox 360 gets a Blu-Ray drive by August.

I predict your wrong since SONY owns the Blu-Ray format. Hmm PS3 or 360?

Sony does not "own" Blu-ray. Ever heard of BDA? If MS wishes, they can make a BD drive.

Ignorance FTL.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Slick5150
Reading is FUNdamental. You should try it sometimes.

Reading all your posts, all I can surmise is that you've got a hard-on for SD DVD. You think DVD9 will be the king until the end of time, and can't think of any successor. Give yourself a pat on the back.

Blu-Ray is the high-definition movie format of choice. There is no "war" between Blu-Ray and DVD because all the companies developing Blu-Ray players and movies are also producing DVD players and movies (except for Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal, which are still waiting for the funeral before making the leap).

You can't have a "war" between two formats controlled by the exact same companies. They are simply two formats that target different segments of the market. HDTV owners are a growing market segment, and Blu-Ray targets them.

 

[Slick5150]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Slick5150
Reading is FUNdamental. You should try it sometimes.

Reading all your posts, all I can surmise is that you've got a hard-on for SD DVD. Give yourself a pat on the back.

Blu-Ray is the high-definition movie format of choice. There is no "war" between Blu-Ray and DVD because all the companies developing Blu-Ray players and movies are also producing DVD players and movies (except for Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal, which are still waiting for the funeral before making the leap).

You can't have a "war" between two formats controlled by the exact same companies. They are simply two formats that target different segments of the market. HDTV owners are a growing market segment, and Blu-Ray targets them.

Actually, if you had read my posts, you'd see that I have an HD-DVD player. I didn't pay anything for it and probably wouldn't have, but its a solid device, does an excellent job of upconverting DVDs, etc.. The Blu-Ray players I've messed around with do a fine job as well. I'm not criticizing the technology by any means, both formats do what they do well, and will hopefully refine even more now that Blu-Ray certainly seems to be the defacto HD format.

I'm simply stating that despite them targeting HDTV owners, every study done has shown most HDTV owners simply don't care, and most people aren't even HDTV owners so they REALLY don't care. Certainly these trends will shift, but the question is how much and when, and I just don't see any significant shift happening before something, whatever that may be, better comes along.

 

[HeroOfPellinor]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Slick5150
Yeah, declaring Blu-Ray the "winner" doesn't make any sense yet considering overall HD media market penetration is miniscule at this point (both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray combined), and a recent survey showed that over 70% of HDTV owners see no value in upgrading and have no plans to do so. And that's just HDTV owners, which is still the minority of americans.

DVD was also minuscule once against VHS; player and media prices were very high compared to VHS. Guess what? The market eventually migrates. HDTV owners will eventually migrate.

With the 2009 DTV switch, the CE industry is expecting record setting sales of HDTVs. Coupled with cheaper Blu-Ray players this fall, the format will do great. Also remember that CE companies are looking for a new format with higher margins than DVD (margins for DVD players and media are razor thin these days); Blu-Ray provides them just that.

CE industry support + studio support + retailer support...I just don't see Blu-Ray anything stopping mass market adoption. Prices for players and media will go down; they always do.

There is a HUGE difference between VHS and DVD. Size, being able to skip anywhere in the movie instantly, no more rewinding, interactive content, playable on the computer, cost, etc. The difference between DVD and Hi Def is just better picture quality and sound when nobody was really asking for it.

 

[torpid]

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor
There is a HUGE difference between VHS and DVD. Size, being able to skip anywhere in the movie instantly, no more rewinding, interactive content, playable on the computer, cost, etc. The difference between DVD and Hi Def is just better picture quality and sound when nobody was really asking for it.

There are other differences too... but no one was really asking for those either.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor
There is a HUGE difference between VHS and DVD. Size, being able to skip anywhere in the movie instantly, no more rewinding, interactive content, playable on the computer, cost, etc. The difference between DVD and Hi Def is just better picture quality and sound when nobody was really asking for it.

The market wasn't asking for dual/quad-core PCs either (do people really need a Core 2 Duo to check e-mail/MySpace/iTunes?), but CPU companies are constantly shifting forward.

If these companies had nothing new to sell you, they would cease to exist. The market is saturated with DVD players; no money left to be made in that segment. So they (the CE companies) are shifting forward.

Honest question: do you really think DVD9 is the last evolutionary step of video technology? If not, then I don't see why you would think its successor wouldn't succeed.

 

[Howard]

i eat crow lots