I can see for many Pat fans this is Spygate 2.0 -- see no evil, hear no evil, know no evil. Even though the Pats got caught red handed.
The use of "Probably" is for legal issues as covered by a number of sites. That has been the "standard" the NFL set in ~ 2008 for these issues. The NFL treats these issues in the realm of "civil" load of evidence, not criminal. For competitive balance issues there only needs to good probability a misdeed was done, not an undeniable burden of proof.
Some are downplaying the texts but all of them together are pretty damning. But before pasting those some other issues:
The balls went missing after the refs authorized them. The Pats equipment guys clearly broke protocol and disspearing into a closet toilet with the balls is incriminating as they were not to be in possession of the balls in the first place.
Tom Brady lied about knowing McNally.
The Patriots, after stating they would completely cooperate, didn't. Specifically the investigators wanted repeated access to the equipment managers and Kraft deemed it "excessive."
And then there are the texts many are downplaying.
May 9, 2014, McNally and Jastremski
McNally: You working
Jastremski: Yup
McNally: Nice dude....jimmy needs some kicks....lets make a deal.....come on help the deflator
McNally: Chill buddy im just f----- with you ....im not going to espn........yet
Why oh why would they call Tom Brady the
deflator?
And why, in spring 2014 (a year ago) would McNally talk about "going to ESPN"?
Yes, let's tell ESPN that Tom likes his balls at 12.5psi within the legal range... that makes a lot of sense!
Tom, the 12.5psi Deflator.
Oct. 17, 2014, following a Thursday night game between the Patriots and the New York Jets during which Tom Brady complained angrily about the inflation level of the game balls, McNally and Jastremski exchanged the following text messages:
McNally: Tom sucks...im going make that next ball a f----- balloon
Jastremski: Talked to him last night. He actually brought you up and said you must have a lot of stress trying to get them done...
Jastremski: I told him it was. He was right though...
Jastremski: I checked some of the balls this morn... The refs f----- us...a few of then were at almost 16
Jastremski: They didnt recheck then after they put air in them
McNally: F--- tom ...16 is nothing...wait till next sunday
Jastremski: Omg! Spaz
This one is difficult to understand without more context. What appears to be said is Tom was mad because the refs overinflated the balls. The question is why did the refs feel the need to inflate the balls? If they were in range when tested there would be no need for extra air.
On Oct. 21, 2014, McNally and Jastremski exchanged the following text messages:
McNally: Make sure you blow up the ball to look like a rugby ball so tom can get used to it before sunday
Jastremski: Omg
This one is more innocuous. It could be argued, due to the over inflation the refs caused, they are gonna piss Tom off by "prepping" him with over inflated balls.
The subtext, though, is the refs feel some need to over inflate Tom's balls. And the equipment guys are keen to test PSI to fit Tom's specific requirements.
On
Oct. 23, 2014, three days before a Sunday game against the Chicago Bears, Jastremski and McNally exchanged the following messages:
Jastremski:
Can't wait to give you your needle this week 
McNally: F---
tom....make sure the pump is attached to the needle.....f----- watermelons coming
Jastremski: So angry
McNally: The only thing
deflating sun..is his passing rating
This is pretty clear: Tom had been pissed at them. They reference the needle used for deflation--affirmed by the last comment--and McNally sarcastically comments that he wants a pump on it--i.e. he wants a needle to INFLATE not DEFLATE.
If the balls are prepped ahead of time there is no need for last second deflation.
Oct. 24, 2014, Jastremski and McNally exchanged the following messages:
Jastremski: I have a big needle for u this week
McNally: Better be surrounded by cash and newkicks....or its a rugby sunday
McNally: F--- tom
Jastremski: Maybe u will have some nice size 11s in ur locker
McNally: Tom must really be working your balls hard this week
Oh, joy, kick backs for the [deflating] needle to a guy Tom doesn't even know.
That sounds completely innocent.
On Jan. 7, 2015, eleven days before the AFC Championship Game, McNally and Jastremski discussed how McNally would have a "big autograph day" and receive items autographed by Brady the following weekend, before the playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens. McNally and Jastremski exchanged the following text messages:
McNally: Remember to put a couple sweet pig skins ready for tom to sign
Jastremski: U got it kid...big autograph day for you
McNally: Nice throw some kicks in and make it real special
Jastremski: It ur lucky. 11?
McNally: 11 or 11 and half kid
Ahem.
And in the broader context at least two teams complained about NE balls.
Nothing will ever convince Pat fans Tom or anyone associated with the Pats intentionally deflated balls outside spec less Tom or someone admits such.
No one was caught in the act of actually deflating the balls. What is known is
- deflated balls were found,
- the Patriots did not "fully" cooperate as promised and impeded the investigation,
- lies were made,
- the ball security was violated by the Pats, and
- the equipment staff specifically discuss deflating Tom's balls
As an NFL fan I wish this case was buried and a behind the scenes/not publicized as any damage is done and uncorrectable and all they can do is fix it going forward. It doesn't help anyone at this point and it is bad for the NFL. My Hawks didn't lose to NE due to deflated balls and I think this detracts from one of the best playoffs in years (ok, and worst in some ways, but no doubt full of drama). But I have little doubt in my mind the Pats are guilty. Which is unfortunate as Tom getting suspended at the twilight years of his career after his 4 ring screws up the AFC competitive balance. Sure, AFC teams may say NE screwed it up for years by cheating but that cannot be undone. And how much did this hurt? I think it helped fumbles and aided Tom (hence why he did it and why he lobbied in 2007 to have more control over his balls). But I don't see why QBs don't have more choice on PSI anyways. They outlawed stickum but the gloves receivers use now are even better. They aren't outlawed. The only real issue is what appears to be tampering with certified balls and lying.
I don't think the Pats or Tom Brady care what anyone thinks, they have 4 recent rings and their wins and stats won't be voiced. And they will just chalk up all talk of Deflate Gate and SpyGate simple haters hating winners, even if lying and minor rule violations did occur.
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