As a display of how much leverage England has in negotiations, ponder for a while why the EU is telling them to leave quickly while they waffle, and EU refusing to hold informal talks while meeting with Scotland. If the act of your leaving is now more desired by the other side of the table, it doesn't bode well for your position.
As a display of how much leverage England has in negotiations, ponder for a while why the EU is telling them to leave quickly while they waffle, and EU refusing to hold informal talks while meeting with Scotland. If the act of your leaving is now more desired by the other side of the table, it doesn't bode well for your position.
As I said before, the panic will be caused by the media. Fear and panic sells, uncertainty is pure gold for news outlets. The folks that are against brexit will bemoan every trivial inconvenience as being caused by brexit. It's FUD.
That has nothing to do with trade, that has to do with hurt feelings and the long term viability of technocrat skullduggery. Some suspect the jig is up and the only way to continue it is to keep the music going. You do that by playing through whatever disruption happened.
Look at the bullshit juncker pulled with farage, trying to interrupt pictures of him. Poor technocrat, your feelings were hurt.
The EU cannot survive while the Germans force it to be German centric without reforming their economy to better integrate with peripheral Europe. They know they cannot allow that, since it would weaken Germany. Thus they continue this charade of "open trade" when it is really just the slow boiling of frogs.
A frog jumped out. They must distract the remaining frogs, lest they figure out they are being cooked alive.
I still have yet to figure out Frauline Merkel. Is it latent germanic guilt that drives her to fuck her own country over? Hell, even soros is saying they should pump the brakes a bit. That's laughable.
flexy
Diamond Member
- Sep 28, 2001
- 8,464
- 155
- 106
Can anyone EXPLAIN what the motivation of (many) Brexiters is?
Common sense, to me, is to make such a decision in the hopes or assumption that it would MAKE THINGS BETTER.
Said differently: Why would people vote based on a mere emotions and "fuzzy feelings" (aka: patriotism, "independence") YET disregard/ignore that Brexit would not lead to make things better?
The only reasonable thing (to me) would be if a Brexiter is in the firm belief that his decision makes things better, but very few of them even bring this as an argument.
Now let's put into the room the actual possibility of a recession, or maybe even that things get worse, significantly worse.
What do YOU then tell people? "Oh, don't fret. Things are ok. I mean we have even less money and less jobs now, our economy is in the basement, ..BUT AT LEAST WE'RE SOVEREIGN. Go, grab a British flag and wave it, you will feel better. So it was the right decision". And you expect anyone rational thinking person to buy and understand this?
Do you see why this starts to look like a giant Monty Python skit?
Common sense, to me, is to make such a decision in the hopes or assumption that it would MAKE THINGS BETTER.
So if someone, even remotely, thinks "I don't think we'll go into recession", we have already left the area of thinking that "Brexit shall make things BETTER", but are now dealing with people who, at some level, expected that Brexit POSSIBLY can lead to a recession, or, at best, leaves things how they are. (This of course if we don't assume that Brexit doesn't actually make things worse, which is very likely as well).
Said differently: Why would people vote based on a mere emotions and "fuzzy feelings" (aka: patriotism, "independence") YET disregard/ignore that Brexit would not lead to make things better?
The only reasonable thing (to me) would be if a Brexiter is in the firm belief that his decision makes things better, but very few of them even bring this as an argument.
Now let's put into the room the actual possibility of a recession, or maybe even that things get worse, significantly worse.
What do YOU then tell people? "Oh, don't fret. Things are ok. I mean we have even less money and less jobs now, our economy is in the basement, ..BUT AT LEAST WE'RE SOVEREIGN. Go, grab a British flag and wave it, you will feel better. So it was the right decision". And you expect anyone rational thinking person to buy and understand this?
Do you see why this starts to look like a giant Monty Python skit?
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NAC4EV
Golden Member
- Feb 26, 2015
- 1,882
- 754
- 136
It's interesting that you paint this picture of yourself as some competent finance person, yet can't recognize obvious business maneuvering afoot.
The current uncertainty depresses all markets, and since Britain controls when to invoke it's in their interests to prolong that much as possible as leverage. That's why they wanted informal negotiations before invoking, which makes sense if negotiating favorable terms for staying is an option on the table.
Europe is aware invoking weakens Britain's hand, which is why they'll reject any such meetings to apply pressure. Instead the 27 only meet among themselves to clearly delineate the battle lines & show of force. That's also why they're also cheekily meeting with Scotland instead, not because they particularly care about the scots but it's only more leverage they can apply to force concessions.
A clever person would study such movements to properly judge the situation. But instead of considering the interests & games at play, you only see this flexing same as why you would flex, to show off when insecure or something.
flexy
Diamond Member
- Sep 28, 2001
- 8,464
- 155
- 106
Honestly, trying to follow British politics makes me head spin.
To ME it looks as if the entire Brexit supporter politicians house is crumbling. The Farage guy VERY OBVIOUSLY turned out to blow hot air only and actually exposed himself a liar.
Johnson now basically threw the towel.
That May person which they now talk about as potential PM was actually supporting Remain.
Are they just playing now since they KNOW there is no way that Brexit *actually* goes through, eg. pretending that they bow the will of the people because they know the next general elections etc. will stop it anyway....or are they really want to go through with it? In the same way as they categorically reject even the idea of a 2nd referendum.
There is, for me, not a single "logical" reason for Brexit, especially hearing that EU two days ago hinted there could've been (or could be) concessions re: immigration. If that's so...why then Brexit?
(Also...that opens the question why Cameron [I think it was Cameron] didn't complain earlier before the EU about how they felt pressured...and just two days ago voiced this in a speech, AFTER the vote, also probably more to "please" the populace than anything else)
(And Johnson throwing the towel now and his subdued reaction after his "victory" make it clear that guy never thought or even *actually* wanted Brexit, he did it only because he thought that rooting for it will give him a strong position, assuming they remain). Basically fucking over the country for personal gain.
The entire thing is a charade, imho.
To ME it looks as if the entire Brexit supporter politicians house is crumbling. The Farage guy VERY OBVIOUSLY turned out to blow hot air only and actually exposed himself a liar.
Johnson now basically threw the towel.
That May person which they now talk about as potential PM was actually supporting Remain.
Are they just playing now since they KNOW there is no way that Brexit *actually* goes through, eg. pretending that they bow the will of the people because they know the next general elections etc. will stop it anyway....or are they really want to go through with it? In the same way as they categorically reject even the idea of a 2nd referendum.
There is, for me, not a single "logical" reason for Brexit, especially hearing that EU two days ago hinted there could've been (or could be) concessions re: immigration. If that's so...why then Brexit?
(Also...that opens the question why Cameron [I think it was Cameron] didn't complain earlier before the EU about how they felt pressured...and just two days ago voiced this in a speech, AFTER the vote, also probably more to "please" the populace than anything else)
(And Johnson throwing the towel now and his subdued reaction after his "victory" make it clear that guy never thought or even *actually* wanted Brexit, he did it only because he thought that rooting for it will give him a strong position, assuming they remain). Basically fucking over the country for personal gain.
The entire thing is a charade, imho.
mikeymikec
Lifer
- May 19, 2011
- 20,975
- 16,214
- 136
As a result of the events yesterday (regarding tory leadership), this is the theory I'm going on at present:
Why not assume that the original objective of the tories was to cause brexit?
It seems to me that under the guise of political ineptitude on the part of Cameron (promising a referendum, then delivering, then arseing up his end of the remain campaign), the tories have (for the time being) ridded themselves of the popular buffoon known as Boris Johnson who would likely be a disaster for the tories as PM, the euro sceptic bankbenchers are no longer a threat to the tory party line, and any pro euro tories may as well give up any ideas of ever rejoining the EU.
IMO brexit is an opportunity for the tories to sell off some more public services for a fraction of their worth, and to do that they really need what looks like an outside factor (the referendum), because continually increasing the arsehole factor like Jeremy Hunt did (re: getting junior doctors to negotiate a new contract which was so bad for them that he actually managed to get doctors to strike) just pisses people off. Austerity is a great excuse, but with the economy steadily improving pre brexit, that excuse would run a bit thin with everyone after a while.
Why not assume that the original objective of the tories was to cause brexit?
It seems to me that under the guise of political ineptitude on the part of Cameron (promising a referendum, then delivering, then arseing up his end of the remain campaign), the tories have (for the time being) ridded themselves of the popular buffoon known as Boris Johnson who would likely be a disaster for the tories as PM, the euro sceptic bankbenchers are no longer a threat to the tory party line, and any pro euro tories may as well give up any ideas of ever rejoining the EU.
IMO brexit is an opportunity for the tories to sell off some more public services for a fraction of their worth, and to do that they really need what looks like an outside factor (the referendum), because continually increasing the arsehole factor like Jeremy Hunt did (re: getting junior doctors to negotiate a new contract which was so bad for them that he actually managed to get doctors to strike) just pisses people off. Austerity is a great excuse, but with the economy steadily improving pre brexit, that excuse would run a bit thin with everyone after a while.
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I suppose it's always possible anything is the work of some comic book genius too brilliant for us peons to grasp until his monologue. Given what a clown act the last week has been, let's not rush to invoke malice what can be explained by stupidity.
Johnson clearly didn't want to brexit, but this Gove guy might. Volunteering for a poisoned seat is pretty dumb, so instead of having no other choice (publicly claims BoJo can't rally enough MP support) maybe he some clever angle to work yet that we can't see. Relevant there is the EU(C) will obviously look to grab London's business (where lot of Tory money supposedly comes from) for horse trading elsewhere, possibly Paris to hush support for Le Pen, or Spain to trade for Scotland.
The thing is Britain falls back to WTO trade rules on brexit, which is a very unfavorable position to negotiate from (and why the EU is pushing them to leave); that explains Gove continuing to insist on negotiations before leaving. The best they could hope for is a Norway/EEA deal, but giving them anything near favorable will only pave the way for Le Pen (ie EU-suicide), so the EU will make it hurt much as they can.
Johnson clearly didn't want to brexit, but this Gove guy might. Volunteering for a poisoned seat is pretty dumb, so instead of having no other choice (publicly claims BoJo can't rally enough MP support) maybe he some clever angle to work yet that we can't see. Relevant there is the EU(C) will obviously look to grab London's business (where lot of Tory money supposedly comes from) for horse trading elsewhere, possibly Paris to hush support for Le Pen, or Spain to trade for Scotland.
The thing is Britain falls back to WTO trade rules on brexit, which is a very unfavorable position to negotiate from (and why the EU is pushing them to leave); that explains Gove continuing to insist on negotiations before leaving. The best they could hope for is a Norway/EEA deal, but giving them anything near favorable will only pave the way for Le Pen (ie EU-suicide), so the EU will make it hurt much as they can.
We don't yet know what we'll be capable of negotiating, what we do know is that we're in a stronger position and the single market is only one small part of overall global trade. What deal we're capable of getting is all speculation at this point.
Yes, precisely my point, the financial sector is one of the biggest exports and is what is being used as an excuse to bend over backwards on political stances in order to maintain that market, a handful of very rich people work in this sector and quite frankly its implosion or vast reduction wouldn't matter at all to the average Joe, whatever they contribute in taxes to the country (not a lot since most of them tax dodge) is far outweighed by the EU rules stating we have to allow all of europe to flood into the country and use our public services.
Well there's lots of evidence that small businesses are unhappy and are actively pushing back against EU rules because the red tape makes hiring people and producing things in the UK which don't even get exported to the EU an absolute nightmare. And when there's so much red tape only large businesses can survive because you need that economy of scale in order to have the additional revenue to pay people just to ensure you're meeting all the rules and regs.
You can read about this all over the place and speaking to small business owners and being a Director in a SME myself I know this poses problems for us.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/09/30/eu-no-friend-britains-small-businesses/
This is pretty naive to be honest, big business having the government's ear is only good for people in that business because they lobby to have changes made which benefit them and screw their competitors, they love more laws and more restrictions because they have the money and teams of lawyers to get around these laws leaving smaller competitors under tons of regulations they can't easily deal with.
The average every day people working in shops and small businesses around the UK in the villages and towns that comprise just as many people as in the big cities are majorly screwed over because of things like EU laws and these are the people that voted out. These are the people most affected when thousands of unskilled migrants flood into the country because its their jobs being offered up to these people.
"Haaar you seriously asking me to explain my reasoning?!" It's like you're a deliberate parody of a modern liberal.
They met with Scotland and told them to go do one, so I'm not sure what you mean about this. Scotland is irrelevent they're a tiny country with most people working in the civil sector they export almost nothing and they do not meet the requirements for entering the EU, it's also extremely likely they'd be vetoed from entering by several of the member states.
We were told there would be no pre-article 50 negotiations which is because they want us to leave ASAP and the reasons for that are not because they can't wait to get the worst deal possible it's because they want to build an EU super state and they know the UK will veto that shit immediately and they want us gone so we don't oppose their changes. We are the 2nd biggest net contributor to the EU and it will cost the remaining states billions per year each to make up our contribution deficit, we also have a trade deficit with Europe which means they need us slightly more than we need them. Us leaving hurt the German and french stock markets more than it hurt ours and our FTSE 100 and 250 recovered already. You really think that while they're looking at increased EU fees each, and hurting from economic instability that they're going to take a good deal from the UK and just reject it, don't be so sure.
Lied about what exactly, we see people accuse Farage of things all the time but do you care to actually back this up?
mikeymikec
Lifer
- May 19, 2011
- 20,975
- 16,214
- 136
I'm normally in full agreement with the principle of "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity", but frankly IMO the pieces don't fit with this being a series of blunders by different people.
So why is it that no-one in the tory party seemingly wants brexit except one guy who now doesn't want to be PM, yet here we are, with brexit? Does anyone honestly think that Cameron blurted out a referendum promise without thinking it through or discussing it with his party first? What about after the election?
If the tory party truly did not want brexit, there were plenty of opportunities to de-rail it anywhere along the way.
So why is it that no-one in the tory party seemingly wants brexit except one guy who now doesn't want to be PM, yet here we are, with brexit? Does anyone honestly think that Cameron blurted out a referendum promise without thinking it through or discussing it with his party first? What about after the election?
If the tory party truly did not want brexit, there were plenty of opportunities to de-rail it anywhere along the way.
mikeymikec
Lifer
- May 19, 2011
- 20,975
- 16,214
- 136
That made no sense as a response to my counterpoint. You stated that London voted remain because of financial institutions. It doesn't explain why every city (at least the ones I checked) voted for remain. Referendums don't care about rich people. One vote, one person. Even if the financial sector is one of the biggest money-spinners in the UK, it doesn't stand to reason that it employs the most people, and in every city.
A breitbart article citing a vote leave organisation (with a URL that doesn't even work properly) and a poll saying that 25% of businesses are happy with the state of the EU* does not constitute "lots of evidence". It's an opinion piece with polls picked to suit the picture it wants to paint.
* - I'm not happy with the state of the EU, it doesn't mean that I want to burn our bridges with it, and I very much doubt that we'll ever see the day that most people are happy with the state of any political organisation with significant power.
IMO it's a common mistake to think of groups as singularly motivated entities, when they're composed of many individual interests. For example, Gove probably has a complex relationship with Johnson, and has his own ideas about weighing options on the table like what invoking means for his legacy should he be PM (vs serving Johnson). Individual often miscalculate based on incomplete information or simply character flaws like greed or overconfidence.
Cameron thought Leave would fail, so did Johnson who saw an opportunity for himself, thus both played for selfish interest until it flopped on them at the last minute. Supposedly Murdoch papers had op-eds ready to support Johnson, so even the most powerful couldn't foresee minds of individuals like Gove when he decided on treason.
I hear the EU would very much like you and Legendkiller to head UK brexit negotiations.
norseamd
Lifer
- Dec 13, 2013
- 13,990
- 180
- 106
Not so sure, from the little that I have seen of him, he is an enigma, but not so sure he is much of a baffoon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVUemAsXGO8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13ucvDpm31o
The thing you should know about england is that most people in politics are gentry, and the gentry go to very good schools where they recite bs in received pronunciation everyday.
But you are right bojo is no baffoon, he just plays an affable idiot for the serfs.
I think they'd get slone better with somebody like you. Somebody that thinks the world of themselves.
So you don't think juncker's behavior as flexing? Or what about schaubels?
Your pedantic pontification on political maneuvering is idiotic (in other words, no shit sherlock). No shit they are using as much leverage as possible to get concessions, on both sides. That's like saying the sky is blue. The fact that you attempt to use that to undercut the notion that the EU is a failed idea due to technocrat self centeredness and germanic centrism belies the fact that you only understand the political side, and only that marginally, and obviously not the financial side, which drives most of these motivations. Germany doesn't give a fuck that the UK may leave, except for the fact that it may drive others to leave. If they did that the the euro would fail and the Deutsche Mark would have to come back. That would require the DM to appreciate vs every currency and drive germany's economy into the gutter.
It has far less to do with flexing than hurt feelings. How do you tell a technocrat/plutocrat that their ideas are idiotic? With your votes. How do they react? Take away your right to vote. That's why that idiot Taub floated the notion of the elites raising against the plebes.
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To follow up on this a bit since not everyone follows markets or whatever, both these clowns say the ftse has recovered.
From 17333 on Thursday close to 16002 yesterday when they were busy shitposting this, that's a big negative number difference, but at this point it wouldn't be surprising Leave clowns haven't figured out what that minus symbol means.
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/.../summary/summary-indices-chart.html?index=MCX
Keep in mind many of these are intl companies, so in Euro and usd:
http://www.ftse.com/products/indices/uk
The ftse 250 at the time they stopped drooling long enough to bang some on the keyboard was down over 13% in usd, same in euro, and 6% in GBP.
So in sum, the EU would love nothing better than Leave supporters only on the other side of the table.
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I get the feeling the politicians who pushed this didnt actually believe it would pass. They expected it to fail then use it to gain more power. Once the vote came back to leave. Their bluff was called. Now they seem to be running for the exit as fast as possible. This is why direct democracy is a disaster. Luckily the vote is non-binding. So parliament can ignore it.
And right now it is at 16369. You call that a hide decrease? Over something that people like soros were touting as similar to the crisis? Bitch, please, this is a yawn in comparison.
And ftse 100 is up.
norseamd
Lifer
- Dec 13, 2013
- 13,990
- 180
- 106
Queue exactly Boris Johnson. Gove and Farage are apparently dedicated leavers.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/30...e-throne-but-got-stabbed-in-the-back-instead/
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,614
- 46,279
- 136
The UK is now not in a stronger position. The Leavers thought that it wouldn't pass and even if it did that the leverage could be used to wring concessions out of the EU. They have called your hand and said no negotiations until Article 50 is triggered. The one topic they seem to be in unanimous agreement about is that whatever deal the UK secures will not be more favorable than those which have been extended to Norway and Switzerland (movement, payments to structural fund, abide by EU regs). It has been explicitly made clear that the UK will need to agree to the vast majority of obligations they currently have under their EU membership for commensurately favorable agreements.
Given the volume of trade the UK does inside the EU this is not some trivial matter of "Oh we'll just trade with someone else and everything should be fine".
Just looked at an article in the Washington post that started with "a week after Britain was plunged into chaos by a vote to exit the E.U." I had no idea they were plunged into chaos. If there rioting in the streets? Food lines, marshal law, aircraft dropping supplies on parachutes?
I'm so sick of propaganda, it's become nearly impossible to find simple factual reporting. Everyone has an agenda and most have absolutely no problem slanting a story to make their point.
I'm so sick of propaganda, it's become nearly impossible to find simple factual reporting. Everyone has an agenda and most have absolutely no problem slanting a story to make their point.
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