The U.S. vs. China

[K1052]

Originally posted by: rickn

Originally posted by: Infohawk
I believe China only has tens of missiles. Perhaps more now but a couple years ago China had like seven missiles or so if I recall correctly. We could turn China into glass essentially in a first strike and maybe only lose a few cities if even (do they even have early warning detection). It seems like people overestimate some countries non-traditional capabilities. It's not THAT easy to strike another continent with nukes right now. (This happened with Iraq I believe, people didn't understand they had no way of striking us).

Now as for the future, that's a whole 'nother matter. I think eventually we will need to join resources with the Europeans if there is ever a clash. But that's just crystal ball reading and too far into the future.

Now if you're talking traditional I don't think the US could occupy China EVER. We could perhaps bring their economy to its knees but even then that would require a lot of procurement with Iraq going on. Look at Korea, there's no way we could take on their numbers in a conventional war for too long in an open theater. But I think we could defend Taiwan though. But man that would require mobilization to go after the mainland and then we wouldn't be successful.

bout 5yrs ago or so they were estimated to have around 20-30 ICBM's, capable of hitting almost anywhere in the US. I'd imagine probably built more since then.

IIRC their ICBM strength is about 20 single-warhead missiles with yields in the single digit megaton range, comparable to our old Titan II missiles.

They do have an SSBN, but it is supposedly a very easy target.

 

[Abraxas]

Originally posted by: judasmachine
Besides what makes you so sure it'd just be China v. USA, and no one else would get involved? I fear this one may take the whole planet down with it.

Remeber what Einstien said about WW IV?

IIRC it was "I know not what World War III will be fought with but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones" or something to that effect

 

[Stunt]

You have to define the parameters.

Is it China in the US...US in China. Using geneva principles? What is it over? If the US is just going at it to conquer...you could see Russia and EU siding with China. If China is naughty...you could see some EU helping.

Tough call, but in war everyone loses...always.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Abraxas
BBC is saying they had four hundred "active" as of '93

That may be correct, although the number of ICBMs they have is far more limited.

 

[judasmachine]

Originally posted by: Abraxas

Originally posted by: judasmachine
Besides what makes you so sure it'd just be China v. USA, and no one else would get involved? I fear this one may take the whole planet down with it.

Remeber what Einstien said about WW IV?

IIRC it was "I know not what World War III will be fought with but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones" or something to that effect

correct.

:beer:

 

[deejayshakur]

everybody.

 

[judasmachine]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: Abraxas
BBC is saying they had four hundred "active" as of '93

That may be correct, although the number of ICBMs they have is far more limited.

The saddest part is that they would only need about 20 to decimate this country. Also, imagine what just one of them can do to a city of 7 million people. One ICBM can carry what about 7 differantly targeted warheads?

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: judasmachine
The saddest part is that they would only need about 20 to decimate this country.

It depends in what sense you mean. The ICBMs are single warhead weapons and they are also only Fission warhead weaponry. That means for instance that while a single nuke could do alot of damage, it could not destroy all of LA. There are also a large number of substancially sized cities in the US.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: judasmachine
The saddest part is that they would only need about 20 to decimate this country. Also, imagine what just one of them can do to a city of 7 million people. One ICBM can carry what about 7 differantly targeted warheads?

I'll have to double check, but I'm pretty sure China's weapons are single warhead weapons. The weapon could also realisticly kill about 300,000 people tops given its just a Fission weapon if it hit that sort of target. (Perhaps it could do slightly better if it hit the center of New York City.)

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: judasmachine
The saddest part is that they would only need about 20 to decimate this country. Also, imagine what just one of them can do to a city of 7 million people. One ICBM can carry what about 7 differantly targeted warheads?

I'll have to double check, but I'm pretty sure China's weapons are single warhead weapons. The weapon could also realisticly kill about 300,000 people tops given its just a Fission weapon if it hit that sort of target. (Perhaps it could do slightly better if it hit the center of New York City.)

China does not have a MIRV launcher yet in operation.

The warheads they have on their current missiles are less than 10 megatons, though that is a rather large yield by today's standards.

More than enough to obliterate a huge chunk of city.

 

[judasmachine]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: judasmachine
The saddest part is that they would only need about 20 to decimate this country.

It depends in what sense you mean. The ICBMs are single warhead weapons and they are also only Fission warhead weaponry. That means for instance that while a single nuke could do alot of damage, it could not destroy all of LA. There are also a large number of substancially sized cities in the US.

I didn't know if they utilized MIRVs (mulitple reentry vehicles) or not. Either way I feel minimizing the risk to sell this to the public is a dangerous ledge to be standing on.

 

[Drift3r]

We could beat them but never occupy China itself. We barely have a handle on Iraq what makes anyone with a sane mind think we can handle the task of pacifying China and nation building in China after a invasion ??? You can fit the whole of the continental US into China and have some room left over. Get real folks !

P.S. Any nation that uses a nuke in a "Pre-Emptive" strike will be shunned by the world. So nukes are not a option for anyone who is reasonably sane of mind.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

China probably has three times the number of nukes being tossed around here as a number. If they launched 50 or so at the largest population centers in the US, we win? What, a one way ticket to Hell?

We could probably wipe out 3/4 of their population. They could probably kill "only" a hundred million or so of us. Yay for our side!

Jeeze, people can't conceive of such destruction, and there are those calling it a "win"?

 

[kranky]

The Chinese will not attack us with nukes. They will destroy our economy and all they have to do is be patient - and patience is certainly a strong point with the Chinese.

We ship billions of dollars over there a year through the trade deficit. We keep abandoning our ability to manufacture items here, thinking that an economy based on "services" is healthy. One day, when they are good and ready, the Chinese might decide they would like to spend those dollars (probably a half-trillion of them today - just think how much they might have in 10 more years) on oil. With that kind of bankroll, they could afford to pay just about any price.

They'll have all the manufacturing capability (we taught them), a lot of the money, and a serious need for energy. And if they decide they no longer want our dollars for goods, that's that. We're sunk without a shot being fired. We won't be able to make our own goods, we won't have a currency that everyone wants, and we won't be able to afford to buy all the oil we want.

 

[Drift3r]

Originally posted by: kranky
The Chinese will not attack us with nukes. They will destroy our economy and all they have to do is be patient - and patience is certainly a strong point with the Chinese.

We ship billions of dollars over there a year through the trade deficit. We keep abandoning our ability to manufacture items here, thinking that an economy based on "services" is healthy. One day, when they are good and ready, the Chinese might decide they would like to spend those dollars (probably a half-trillion of them today - just think how much they might have in 10 more years) on oil. With that kind of bankroll, they could afford to pay just about any price.

They'll have all the manufacturing capability (we taught them), a lot of the money, and a serious need for energy. And if they decide they no longer want our dollars for goods, that's that. We're sunk without a shot being fired. We won't be able to make our own goods, we won't have a currency that everyone wants, and we won't be able to afford to buy all the oil we want.

I totally agree. There is more then one way to fight a war and to win. In fact fighting a real actual war is and should be the last extreme resort for any nation. Have you read "Sun Tzu's - Art Of War" ?? Some have said that the Japanese never stopped fighting WW2 in a economic sense.

 

[LtPage1]

itll never happen. were too closely aligned, economically. we need each others' trade. eventually theyll slip into democracy, and it will all be good.

 

[klah]

I don't think China will be starving for energy any time soon:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/n.../page/nuctimeline.html

2004, January: According to China's People's Daily, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase installed nuclear capacity to 36 million-kilowatts in 2004, and is contemplating adding 2 or more reactors every year for the next 16 years. An Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 report noted that China's nuclear industry would grow faster than that of any other nation. But the current rapid growth of Chinese nuclear capacity has already made the projections supporting that statement appear conservative.

The question is no longer: can China?s nuclear industry maintain its current growth rate? The question now being asked is, can China accelerate that growth rate to meet the even more ambitious pace of its new energy plan?

Also the Three Gorges Dam is supposed to generate as much power as 16 nuclear reactors:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/n...ctors/china/china.html

The largest project under construction, by far, is the Three Gorges Dam, which, when fully completed in 2009, will include 26 separate 700-MW generators, for a total of 18.2 GW.

 

[MegaWorks]

Dozen of these and the US is history.

 

[preslove]

Why would they fight? In a few decades China's GDP will outgrow America's by then they will be able to afford the latest military technology. We probably won't. Hopefully the U.N. will have balls by then.

 

[Alistar7]

China, and they have the power to take us out this very second.

BTW it's a dollar issue, not military, and its already happening. We owe the survival of our dollar to Asian purchasers of bonds that carry our debt, if they stopped buying we go down like the titantic.

 

[AnImuS]

Without nukes.
we can deter China from a successful invasion because of our superior weapons&training. We also can't invade china because theres not even enough room for our equipmeant

With Nukes.
I'm not really sure how much damage of their estimated 200-400 nukes can do. I do know we have an estimated 4000+ nukes

 

[Alistar7]

We go down without a shot being fired, they have us by the nuts now thanks to our Fed and Govt.....

 

[Stunt]

In all honesty...the rest of the world would not stand for communist governance...at least the US will allow us independance and democracy.

I can see no situation where north america and EU would not back the US in such an important war.

China would kick some major ass.
I'd also like to see what mini wars start up...if the US devotes everything to China...watch NK go SK, Iran take Iraq and Isreal...etc.

 

[earthman]

LOL we can't win a conventional war in Iraq, and you dufuses think we're going to beat China? Get real. If we got into a war with China, our economy WOULD be destroyed, since we rely on their money to support our gotesque national debt, and every one of you guys under 30 would get drafted. They could put 10 million men in uniform faster than we could 10 thousand. We would never launch a nuclear strike against them, because risking the destruction of even one American city is out of the question, it just wouldn't be done. You saw what happened to our economy when Al-Quaeda knocked two buildings down...what do you think would happen if two thousand got knocked down? You think our military would walk over them? I'm not so sure. We couldn't beat North Vietnam, and even they managed to shoot down one of our planes for every two of theirs. I sometimes think our military looks so invincible now because our "opponents" don't have anything more dangerous than an AK-47 and an old Toyota pickup to attack us with.

 

[stratman]

IMO China could definately never invade the states. In China there's a running joke about invading Taiwan, that their invasion force would be made up of "One billion swimming men". Their navy is a joke.

I can't believe that America would nuke Chinese cities, ESPECIALLY in the manner many of you are talking, nuking 3/4 of China's population.

Shanghai and Hong Kong are IMHO, two of the best cities in the world. I know people that have lived in them and people that still live in them, and to think of them and many like them killed for bs power-struggle reasons is inconceivable.

It's like Dissipate said, the people of China and the people of the United States get along fine, it's the governments who don't like each other.

Anyways, if a war (conventional) over Taiwan was fought tomorrow, America would win. China has massive numbers of soldiers and aircraft, but those numbers are misleading. Much of the airforce and army is unready for any kind of real fighting.