The Trump Tariffs thread

[GodisanAtheist]

I don't see any historical precident for this kind of shift to authoritarianism in the USA.

You are in uncharted waters, and judging by how the slide to authoritarianism has gone in other parts of the world, it does not bode well.

- I think we're back in the robber Barron massive economic disparity age of the 1920's combined with the social unrest of the 1970's.

Yes, this time is specifically unique to itself, but the US has absolutely been a complete shit show many times in the past (arguably more often than times have been good).

America has always had a deeply authoritarian bent to it, but it tended to be hidden away with the poor or minorities or immigrants or "sexual deviants" or communists etc etc. while the power structure that controlled the media tended to keep that stuff largely under wraps (unless something dramatic and unignorable occured).

With the democratization of information (sorta, when the algo allows) things that would normally have been hidden, suppressed, or controlled are more available for consumption than ever before.

Hopefully it won't take a great depression and world war and millions of deaths to get another mini golden age this time, but magic 8 ball says "not looking good".

 

[nickqt]

- I think we're back in the robber Barron massive economic disparity age of the 1920's combined with the social unrest of the 1970's.

Yes, this time is specifically unique to itself, but the US has absolutely been a complete shit show many times in the past (arguably more often than times have been good).

America has always had a deeply authoritarian bent to it, but it tended to be hidden away with the poor or minorities or immigrants or "sexual deviants" or communists etc etc. while the power structure that controlled the media tended to keep that stuff largely under wraps (unless something dramatic and unignorable occured).

With the democratization of information (sorta, when the algo allows) things that would normally have been hidden, suppressed, or controlled are more available for consumption than ever before.

Hopefully it won't take a great depression and world war and millions of deaths to get another mini golden age this time, but magic 8 ball says "not looking good".

I've said it in the past, but a reverse 1984 is every citizen having a camera attached to their chest filming every government action taken against fellow citizens all uploaded to a cloud that can't be memory-holed by the government.

Listen, fascism is going to fasces. It's the whole point, really. That said, it's the holding it accountable and shining light on it that helps limit it's destruction in real time.

Almost everyone has a camera. Point that shit at every government employee carrying a weapon and make sure your footage can be retrieved by someone. Almost like there should be an app for that.

 

[Brainonska511]

I don't see any historical precident for this kind of shift to authoritarianism in the USA.

You are in uncharted waters, and judging by how the slide to authoritarianism has gone in other parts of the world, it does not bode well.

In the last 75 years, we had Jim Crow and mass disenfranchisement of black people, married women not being allowed to open bank accounts or credit cards on their own, anti-gay laws. And now we all have greater amounts of freedom overall.

Is there some backsliding? Yes. But that doesn't mean we need to roll over for it. Trump's policies are deeply unpopular and that's going to smear onto anyone (R) running. You don't stay in power very long by pissing off everyone you need to keep power and maintain legitimacy.

 

[K1052]

In the last 75 years, we had Jim Crow and mass disenfranchisement of black people, married women not being allowed to open bank accounts or credit cards on their own, anti-gay laws. And now we all have greater amounts of freedom overall.

Is there some backsliding? Yes. But that doesn't mean we need to roll over for it. Trump's policies are deeply unpopular and that's going to smear onto anyone (R) running. You don't stay in power very long by pissing off everyone you need to keep power and maintain legitimacy.

Generally the aspiring autocrat wants to be popular while consolidating power. Trump has done the opposite with this all stick no carrot ass administration. People are UNHAPPY with the economy as borne out by every single poll and focus group out there. They think basically every policy he's doing is wrong by 15-20 point margins. This is not a recipe for brewing up an unassailable dictatorship.

 

[Indus]

In the last 75 years, we had Jim Crow and mass disenfranchisement of black people, married women not being allowed to open bank accounts or credit cards on their own, anti-gay laws. And now we all have greater amounts of freedom overall.

Is there some backsliding? Yes. But that doesn't mean we need to roll over for it. Trump's policies are deeply unpopular and that's going to smear onto anyone (R) running. You don't stay in power very long by pissing off everyone you need to keep power and maintain legitimacy.

If he's so unpopular how come we haven't seen the military depose him?

Maybe they're his followers??

 

[Brainonska511]

If he's so unpopular how come we haven't seen the military depose him?

Maybe they're his followers??

Because we have inculcated them with the idea that our civil institutions should not be overthrowing the elected government. Going through a military dictatorship isn't going to make things better.

 

[Indus]

Because we have inculcated them with the idea that our civil institutions should not be overthrowing the elected government. Going through a military dictatorship isn't going to make things better.

Oh I didn't say anything about better, it's just very common around the world that the military steps in to stop a madman and the people generally take their side till they want voting rights back.

 

[Brainonska511]

Oh I didn't say anything about better, it's just very common around the world that the military steps in to stop a madman and the people generally take their side till they want voting rights back.

I would say that might only be common in countries that have more recent histories of military dictatorships. That is not a common feature of liberal democracies of the western mold.

 

[Indus]

I would say that might only be common in countries that have more recent histories of military dictatorships. That is not a common feature of liberal democracies of the western mold.

Thing is..

The US Constitution is no longer fit for purpose.

For most of its history it’s been a hugely effective document. Far from perfect of course, but (broadly) brought stability, freedom and progress to the States.

But there comes a point where it’s no longer working effectively. And the time is now. It’s remarkable it stayed effective for as long as it did tbh. IMHO it was broken a while ago. It’s one of the most remarkable documents in human history.

But realistically it’s time is done. It’s all falling apart. The dictatorship/ ignoring the constitution genie is out of the box and we're not going back.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Generally the aspiring autocrat wants to be popular while consolidating power. Trump has done the opposite with this all stick no carrot ass administration. People are UNHAPPY with the economy as borne out by every single poll and focus group out there. They think basically every policy he's doing is wrong by 15-20 point margins. This is not a recipe for brewing up an unassailable dictatorship.

His overall number is not as bad: 7.5 points, because his supporters are a cult.

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

www.natesilver.net

How much has Donald Trump’s net approval rating moved as a result? A staggering 0.2 percentage points. As of today, 44.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing and 52.4 percent disapprove.

Also Dictatorships don't have to be won at the ballot box, especially when they are already on the inside and are further rigging the system.

Media is being suppressed, the constitution ignored. Do you think they are above election fraud to stay this time?

Trump tried belated election fraud the time he lost by calling up states and pressuring them to come up with more votes, and when that failed, he then tried a coup.

This time I wouldn't expect them to be belated efforts.

 

[K1052]

His overall number is not as bad: 7.5 points, because his supporters are a cult.

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

www.natesilver.net

Also Dictatorships don't have to be won at the ballot box, especially when they are already on the inside and are further rigging the system.

Media is being suppressed, the constitution ignored. Do you think they are above election fraud to stay this time?

Trump tried belated election fraud the time he lost by calling up states and pressuring them to come up with more votes, and when that failed, he then tried a coup.

This time I wouldn't expect them to be belated efforts.

I like strength in numbers better since he excludes more GOP pollsters (Rasmussen especially) that have let's say very questionable house effects.





Competitive authoritarianism is a thing and elections still happen under it and sometimes the party in power is toppled through that or the resulting public unrest from trying to steal the election that forces the government to flee. I assume Trump's approval floor is probably in the low 30s and that's not good for him this scenario. Also this country is full to the brim with guns and state security is definitely not up to the task of protecting the entire regime. Some rando protestors got within steak knife range of Trump last week so the USSS is not exactly infallible.

 

[K1052]

They finally clarified that the new H-1B fee doesn't apply to current visa holders. Incompetent administration.

https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3lzcepyc7fs25

 

[Indus]

They finally clarified that the new H-1B fee doesn't apply to current visa holders. Incompetent administration.

https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3lzcepyc7fs25

No this is perfect competence.

The nazi's are not known for their kindness/ decency.

They keep everyone on edge.. eager to please.. happy to fight amongst themselves to be the last one on the train!

 

[Heartbreaker]

Competitive authoritarianism is a thing and elections still happen under it and sometimes the party in power is toppled through that or the resulting public unrest from trying to steal the election that forces the government to flee. I assume Trump's approval floor is probably in the low 30s and that's not good for him this scenario. Also this country is full to the brim with guns and state security is definitely not up to the task of protecting the entire regime. Some rando protestors got within steak knife range of Trump last week so the USSS is not exactly infallible.

I think you underestimate the power of corruption, media control, and the modern surveillance state.

Think about Palantir hooked into every database in the USA with a profile on every citizen, every monetary transaction, every cell phone location and communication...

Trump is following Putin's playbook. Crush dissent, control the media, scapegoat the other...

Putin's popularity is over 80% in Russia (third party verified), despite starting an insane, devastating war of aggression, on an innocent Ukraine, and sending over a quarter million Russian soldiers to their death in that conflict so far.

Total Russian's killed in their 10 year war in Afghanistan, was only about 15K

Total Americans killed in Vietnam in 18 years, was only about 58K.

Ukraine is like (Vietnam war + Afghan War) times 10... and Putin has unassailable popularity. This is the power of authoritarianism that the USA is speed running.

I think a lot of Americans are putting their faith in elections rolling this back. Elections that this time will be pre-rigged in every way Dear Leader and his sycophants can come up with.

Election denier who worked to overturn Trump’s 2020 loss is named top official for ‘Election Integrity’​

 

[K1052]

Putin's popularity is over 80% in Russia (third party verified), despite starting an insane, devastating war of aggression, on an innocent Ukraine, and sending over a quarter million Russian soldiers to their death in that conflict so far.

Putin consolidated power when he was legitimately popular and systematically over the course of many years. The chaos that Trump is doing is a fraction as well considered.

 

[K1052]

No this is perfect competence.

The nazi's are not known for their kindness/ decency.

They keep everyone on edge.. eager to please.. happy to fight amongst themselves to be the last one on the train!

This admin routinely does stuff that even they eventually admit is self defeating for their own goals because they are stupid. The effects of both stupidity and malice can be pretty similar but it is important to obverse when it's one or the other. They simply fuck up all a lot of times.

 

[Indus]

Putin consolidated power when he was legitimately popular and systematically over the course of many years. The chaos that Trump is doing is a fraction as well considered.

Lets not delude ourselves..

Trump is more popular than anyone else.. even now!

He won the last election and he's likely to win another one since the dems will just put up an idiot who will try to appeal to MAGA "Centrists".

I mean FFS Fetterman, Schumer, and others will help Trump out and keep his government open again!

 

[K1052]

Lets not delude ourselves..

Trump is more popular than anyone else.. even now!

He won the last election and he's likely to win another one since the dems will just put up an idiot who will try to appeal to MAGA "Centrists".

I mean FFS Fetterman, Schumer, and others will help Trump out and keep his government open again!

Nobody knows who the Dem nominee will be in 2028. Not a single soul.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Nobody knows who the Dem nominee will be in 2028. Not a single soul.

We similarly don't know if there will even be an election in 2028, some crisis could be made to materialize by then necessitating martial law.

Their might be "evidence" that Canadians bombed the Whitehouse, forcing an invasion of Canada and marital law in the USA...

A MUCH less corrupt US government invaded Iraq killing hundreds of thousand of civilians using fabricated "evidence"...

 

[K1052]

We similarly don't know if there will even be an election in 2028, some crisis could be made to materialize by then necessitating martial law.

Their might be "evidence" that Canadians bombed the Whitehouse, forcing an invasion of Canada and marital law in the USA...

A MUCH less corrupt US government invaded Iraq killing hundreds of thousand of civilians using fabricated "evidence"...

I don't know what to tell people besides the Republicans are sure acting like there are still gonna be elections, certainly next year at least.

 

[Indus]

I don't know what to tell people besides the Republicans are sure acting like there are still gonna be elections, certainly next year at least.

Busy rigging it so there are no surprises and they can maintain the illusion they won fairly.

Don't forget they rigged Florida 2000 & 2004 too.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I don't know what to tell people besides the Republicans are sure acting like there are still gonna be elections, certainly next year at least.

Many Totalitarian regimes still have sham elections. You would definitely still expect them in the very early days, and if they were halted for martial law they might return again when results are absolutely predictable:

IIRC Saddam Hussein regularly had elections where he got somewhere between 99% and 100% of the vote.

 

[VRAMdemon]

If the elections are legitimate, it doesn't look good for Trump/Republicans. The only thing good about Trump trying to be a dictator is that he’s as dumb as box of rocks. That lessens his chances of success considerably. But if he were say 55 and had a functional brain. The America hundreds of thousands of our forefathers fought and died for wouldn’t stand a chance.

At 79, demented and unable to focus on anything but his anger, Trump is short on time and is such a gaffe machine that he could implode at any moment.

 

[Heartbreaker]

At 79, demented and unable to focus on anything but his anger, Trump is short on time and is such a gaffe machine that he could implode at any moment.

I remember the misplaced optimism here (that I did not share) after Trump lost in 2020. The narrative was he was done forever...

MAGA is a cult of personality, and the right wing media that feeds them is only being amplified more, while dissenting media is being suppressed.

Combine that with everything they can imagine to steal the upcoming elections (mid terms).

On top of Gerrymandering, voter suppression and intimidation, there is no reason to belief they wouldn't simply tamper with ballot boxes in multiple ways, etc...

The next day with the MAGA victorious mid term results are reported along with some dissenting claims of irregularities, the vast majority of media (MAGA owned or controlled by then) will report minor irregularities carried out by ANTIFA and other leftist radicals, but they were thwarted...

 

[Indus]

I don't feel sorry for them one bit for a couple of reasons.

1. They voted for this
2. They're not exactly starving low income farmers like you would think.. in a lot of cases they're richer than most doctors.