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The Republicans are effectively DOA
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ScudRunner
Banned
I'm totally against him if he wants to work with Murtha, and McCain:thumbsdown:
Republicans are going to lose at least 3 Senate seats - Burns, Santorum and DeWine. The Missouri seat is a toss up.
Dems will easily retain the Senate seats in New Jersey and Maryland. The Minnesota seat is leaning Dem, but could go Red. The Tennessee open seat is leaning Republican - a big night for the Dems and they may pick that one up. I think that Allen is going to have a real fight on his hands in Virginia with Webb, who is going to crawl all over Allen with regards to Iraq (and Allen isn't the brightest bulb in the chandelier).
I don't think Arizona is in play unless the Dem candidate wants to spend his whole personal fortune, and even then he will probably still lose. Florida is a sleeper unless Katherine "Cruella" Harris doesn't win the primary. If she loses it will become a toss-up / very slight Dem lean.
The question is how bad are Santorum and Burns going to lose. I think Santorum loses by a good 10%, but Burns is going to lose by even more than that, maybe 15 or more. Nothing in the world can save those seats for the GOP. Santorum screwed up that residency thing so royally, that he was history the moment it became a news item. Burns is just a corrupt idiot and Tester is a former farmer in a state where a salt of the earth type governor is incredibly popular - you do the math on that one.
Ohio is going to be an absolute donnybrook with the Governor's mansion and the Senate seat up for grabs. The Ohio GOP is so very corrupt I can't imagine them doing well in the Governor's race - DeWine maybe has a chance if BushCo brings some troops home from the Iraq fvck up.
The House is so gerrymandered that there is not going to be wholesale change. The moderate GOP seats in the northeast and midwest are the ones that are most endangered. There are three GOP seats in the Philadelphia suburbs alone that could go Democratic. The Dems will definitely get one of those, maybe two - but probably not all three.
The Dems are probably looking at picking up 7 to 10 House seats nationwide. Should be a lot more for the sole reason that BushCo and his GOP congress gave us Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL), but it won't be because the GOP is good at winning elections and has a lot of corporate payola to spend. They can win elections, they just can't govern.
Steeplerot
Lifer
And I am still waiting for reps to even start.
Steeplerot
Lifer
Yes bravo for the new islamic fundamentalist state of iraq, 2500 dead soldiers and billions missing in cash.
Also bravo for being so retarted they could not listen to reason while millions told them they are buying a line of bullcrap and this very thing would happen.
You misconstrued my post. I was just giving you an attaboy for a nice reply to the Republican drone's post.
You don't need to tell me that Iraq is FUBAR and was the greatest strategic error in the history of our country. You don't need to tell me that BushCo has been criminal in their incompetence and negligence. And you certainly don't need to tell me the KIA count.
Hmm, well at this point, I suspect it will look exactly like it does now...except with fewer no-bid contracts being awarded to companies Cheney still gets paid by.
But if they had been at the helm from the start, I suspect we'd be handling Iraq with a large number of allies, helping to ease the burden on American troops. Or maybe we could have gotten Saddam to step down without firing a shot. You never know, it's amazing what you can do when your leaders don't get their foreign policy ideas from Tom Clancy books.
Steeplerot
Lifer
Well you get the point, it does say "they" not you. 😉
Jadow
Diamond Member
Does anyone think the tide has turned a bit in the last week? I think we're starting to dig out of Iraq and turn it around and as Iraq gets better, so will the Repub's chances. Also, the democrats seem hell bent on imploding. The dems are doing a HORRIBLE job on themselves right now.
Today, 6-16, I predict the repubs will somehow manage to once again pull one out of their ass, keep both houses of congress, and maybe even make some gains.
Today, 6-16, I predict the repubs will somehow manage to once again pull one out of their ass, keep both houses of congress, and maybe even make some gains.
Hayabusa Rider
Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Sounds about right. I don't believe that the recent turn of events will help the Reps, since once the insurgency gets reorganized (which I believe will happen), it will be business as usual.
That said, the Dems fell on their faces in the Presidential election. I recall how people were saying that Edwards was going to eat Cheney in the debates, and that simply did not happen.
Democrats keep insisting that Bush is stupid etc., but keep getting their butts kicked. Bush isn't stupid. His verbal talent's aren't, however that works to his advantage. The Dems continually underestimate the opposition and the fact that while many don't like the Reps, they don't like the Dems any better. For the majority of Americans, it seems like it's the worst of a bad lot on both sides. Effectively, I don't think there is a dime's worth of difference between the two sides. They are far more interested in their parties than their nation.
Whatever the problems the Dems have, they will end up back on top before too long just because of the cyclical nature of our political system. Both parties are complete trash most of the time, but with only two parties to choose from, people eventually decide they want to try the type of trash they haven't seen a lot of lately. Republicans have had control of the entire government for a while now, and they've done a grand total of...nothing with that power. I think people are going to give the Dems another shot, if only because they are the evil we haven't tried in a while.
dmcowen674
No Lifer
That is no surprise, the religious forces have been cranked up for quite some time now and the rich are super charged with new tax breaks.
Maybe, but I think those things are pissing off the moderate folks. Republicans really seem to have bought the fiction (that they came up with in the first place) that the whole country shifted massivly to the right in the last few years. So they're campaigning like everyone in the country is some wacko far righty. It may not bite them in the ass yet, but I think it will soon...
Whoozyerdaddy
Lifer
I don't know about Rs gaining seats. I'd bet they lose a few seats in the house. Maybe a couple in the senate. We'll see.
The problem with looking at the current polling data is that national polls don't always relate well to local elections. I'm sure if you polled my state (Alaska) you'd get a big thumbs down to congress and the republicans but Stevens and Young are not worried at all about keeping their seats. Granted we're pissed at different things than the rest of the country is where this congress is concerned but it goes to show that just because the electorate is upset at the party it doesn't mean that they'll bounce their rep. Incumbants have an amazing re-election rate.
I've said this earlier and I'll say it again. If the Ds want to win back the congress, they have to nationalize the elections this fall ala Newt and the gang in '94. Back then the Rs had a plan. A simple point by point program that anyone could understand and the message was simple: Elect the R in your district and we'll make this happen. It worked brilliantly.
I don't know if the Ds can do that. And standing there pointing out mistakes is not something that inspires the masses to rally to your cause. It may make them hate the other guy, but it's not going to make them like you any better. A strategy like that means they have to hope for more bad things to happen and hope that things get SO bad that people will overlook their congressman/senator's tenure and seniority and "vote the bums" out.
What's more, I haven't seen a consistant message detailing what the Ds plan to do with congress if they get control back. I hear about the failures of the Rs. I hear "culture of corruption". I hear the economy is in the toilet. I hear Iraq had no WMDs. I hear it's all the Rs fault. Etc, etc...
What I don't hear is a clear and consistant message about how they intend to fix any of it. And until they come up with something proactive to give the nation, all of these elections will be local events. And if they remain local, it will be a very tough uphill pull for the Ds to take back the congress. I'm not saying it can't happen... But they're not helping themselves.
The Ds are making the classic mistake in sales. They are trying to close the deal by talking bad about the other guy. Do that and you come off negative. Negativity turns people off. First rule in sales: Always sell the competition first, then tell the customer why you're better. If you take that approach you can work in your competition's flaws, mistakes and shortcomings without sounding negative. Remember the Republican/Bush line in the 2000 campaign? "We're doing well but we could be doing so much better..." Bingo.
Here's what they should do.
Line up the positive accomplishments of the Rs over the last six years or so. (No matter how painful it may be) Pick a half dozen or so simple concepts that Jane and Joe Sixpack can easily grasp in a 30 second soundbite.
1. The economy is roaring along at a record pace. Unemployment is low, interest rates are low, homeownership is at an all time high.
(But at what cost. Deficit is at record levels. We can continue the growth AND control the budget. *JOKE* Who would have thought the Ds would be the budget hawks? Humor is good. Makes you look human and less bitter)
2. Security. We're safer now with the implementation of DHS and tougher security at our airports.
(But we need to do more. Ports. Better international relations. Etc.)
3. Afghanistan. Free elections. Partners in the WOT... etc. We voted for it too and are pleased at the progress - It's not a unilateral R issue.
(We need to do more to ensure that Afgh. stays free and doesn't slip back into taliban hands... We need to make them more self sufficient... Drug problems... etc)
4. Medical drug coverage. Everyone is covered...
(Cost overruns)
And so on and so on. Don't pick on my examples, they are only that... examples. My point is to emphasize how the Ds can go a lot further if they present the positive things the Rs have done, explain their roll in enacting those items and then talk about how to do it more effectively and how with 'these changes' we can make the good things better and turn the negative and worrisome issues back into pluses.
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