The Republican Party Is Now in Its End Stages

[zinfamous]

I think this is the article I was thinking of

Donald Trump Increases His Share of Black, Latino Voters: Exit Poll

The president has boosted his share of the Black vote by 4 points since the 2016 election.

www.newsweek.com

Trump increased his minority numbers from 2016. (which at least to me is a big WTF?) I thought I read he did better than other republicans too though?

Your right, at least in inital polls GW got 44% of latino votes, vs trump's 32%

Donald Trump Increases His Share of Black, Latino Voters: Exit Poll

The president has boosted his share of the Black vote by 4 points since the 2016 election.

www.newsweek.com

So that's good I guess?? But still a worryingly high number IMO.

total voter percentage increased though, and within each demographic more voters came to the polls. It's easier to increase total minority numbers in any one party if the overall total also increased. The actual share among the totals, though?

 

[zinfamous]

I don't feel that really clarifies anything! To be honest, it seems a rather circular answer.




I don't agree that they disagree about racism. They seem to run the gamut from being strongly in favour of it, to not really caring about it at all. They clearly do disagree about economics and foreign-policy, though. Most of all, where the two intersect, i.e. trade and movement of labour.

let me circle back to you on that after I run the numbers.

 

[woolfe9998]

I'm going to provide a link here so that this assertion stops being made:

IV. How Latinos Voted in 2004

Although the CPS does not ask respondents how they voted, it does help resolve an enduring disagreement over how Hispanics voted in the 2004 presidential

www.pewresearch.org

The NEP national exit poll showed that President George W. Bush had taken 44 percent of the Hispanic vote—a 10 percentage point increase over his share in 2000.

Trump's share was not even close to a record. Moreover, Trump probably increased his share by way of machismo. Bush increased his by way of moderating his immigration stance. I think the Trump approach has hit its ceiling.

 

[obidamnkenobi]

I'm going to provide a link here so that this assertion stops being made:

IV. How Latinos Voted in 2004

Although the CPS does not ask respondents how they voted, it does help resolve an enduring disagreement over how Hispanics voted in the 2004 presidential

www.pewresearch.org

Trump's share was not even close to a record. Moreover, Trump probably increased his share by way of machismo. Bush increased his by way of moderating his immigration stance. I think the Trump approach has hit its ceiling.

It's not necessarily wrong. Bush got 44% of 40.5 million latino voters. Trump in 2020 got 32% of 60 m latino voters. In abosolute numbers 17.8M vs 19.2M for trump. SO "more" latino people supported Trump than Bush. Not a terribly useful metric, but perhaps that's what I saw claimed somewhere..

 

[woolfe9998]

It's not necessarily wrong. Bush got 44% of 40.5 million latino voters. Trump in 2020 got 32% of 60 m latino voters. In abosolute numbers 17.8M vs 19.2M for trump. SO "more" latino people supported Trump than Bush. Not a terribly useful metric, but perhaps that's what I saw claimed somewhere..

Yeah, like you said, not a terribly useful metric. What matters is what share of the vote you get, not the total number. If that is all you meant, I'm not sure why it was in your prior post.

 

[MrSquished]

Keep in mind folks a large majority of the Republican party is ok with fascism and they will be even more fine with it in a couple or four years if Trump tells them to be fine with it again. There is a solid chance democracy is over in this country in 4 years.

 

[Fenixgoon]

It may be dying, but there's also the concept of "death throes", and that's what really has me worried. There's no guarantee that what comes after is actually better. The proverbial phoenix rising from the ashes could be chaotic evil in alignment.

 

[Muse]

So which is it?

Half of you say the GOP is split, dead, buried, etc.

The other half think they're going to make a major resurgence and sweep 2022 and 2024.

Personally, I don't think they are as split as some of you would hope. And the amount of voters that Trump captured in 2020 was no fluke. And of course all the institutional advantages they have. I think the only saving grace is that if/when Trump wins again in 2024, he is limited to only one term and we saw how mostly ineffective he was. I don't think the GOP has a plan beyond that, anyway.

There's a good chance that Trump won't be the R nominee in 2024, for various reasons. He may be imprisoned, he may not be in good health, he may be perceived as a drag on the ticket. The R's lost the house, the senate, the white house in 2020 and that was before the jan. 6, 2021 OMG can this really be happening defrocking of the "law and order" snorting hypocritical R's. The R's may find themselves at ebb tide in next elections. Many people want more from their representatives.

 

[gothuevos]

There's a good chance that Trump won't be the R nominee in 2024, for various reasons. He may be imprisoned, he may not be in good health, he may be perceived as a drag on the ticket. The R's lost the house, the senate, the white house in 2020 and that was before the jan. 6, 2021 OMG can this really be happening defrocking of the "law and order" snorting hypocritical R's. The R's may find themselves at ebb tide in next elections. Many people want more from their representatives.

And what if the Dems don't deliver, especially considering they control all branches right now (as it appears they'll be just as ineffective as the last admin)?

People have short memories. The capitol riots will be long forgotten by the 2022 midterms.

 

[Muse]

And what if the Dems don't deliver, especially considering they control all branches right now (as it appears they'll be just as ineffective as the last admin)?

People have short memories. The capitol riots will be long forgotten by the 2022 midterms.

This is not true, and the Democrats will make sure to put it out there. Plenty of people are not so damn stupid. That was a major event in US history, just as significant as 9/11, probably more significant. 9/11 hasn't been forgotten. The Capitol invasion/desecration will never be forgotten. Not as long as the USA exists.

To your other point: The Democrats ARE delivering. They will get 90+% of the credit for ending the pandemic. They are also putting another $1400 into people's pockets when they need it. That won't be forgotten either. The pandemic won't be forgotten by a long shot. It will be in the national consciousness for decades. Everyone knows the Republicans whiffed on the pandemic, are responsible for the majority of the deaths. They also know that they are parsimonious with giving relief to the suffering. People aren't as stupid as you think. With the fiasco in Texas there's a decent chance that it will turn blue sooner than later. There was already talk that it would turn blue in the not distant future. That future may be now! A lot of people in Texas.

 

[Jhhnn]

And what if the Dems don't deliver, especially considering they control all branches right now (as it appears they'll be just as ineffective as the last admin)?

People have short memories. The capitol riots will be long forgotten by the 2022 midterms.

I doubt that clinging to Trump will serve the GOP well in 2022. Maybe somebody can explain to me why it would. The effect of the big lie of the stolen election is being torn down in an ongoing fashion. That won't bring the deplorables to the polls when he's not on the ticket. I mean, it's all about him, right? Everything. He makes the magic happen.

As for the attack on the Capitol, that will be in the news continuously as trial dates are set & more of the participants are visited by the FBI. Garland said it's his top priority & there's a 5 year statute of limitations. Why did they do it? Because Trump told them to do it, that's why. We'll hear it over & over again.

 

[cytg111]

A perfect encapsulation of what Conservatism is now

https://twitter.com/x/status/1365141354960084994

My evangelical grade school education repeatedly talked about a very simlar scene in Exodus. Those same people are cheering stuff like this on. Apparently they've decided it was a model not a cautionary tale.

Yo @s0me0nesmind1 Have you seen this dumb shit?
Maybe hit up @pcgeek11 for some commentary as well?
Shit like this must make you proud .

 

[cytg111]

Another question. Ending the filibuster and ramming through voting rights and a national general election holiday would finish the GQP off right? Game over?
Then wtf...
They just tried to end you. If you dont respond in kind... they’ll get you the next time...

 

[Zorba]

I don't feel that really clarifies anything! To be honest, it seems a rather circular answer.

It's not circular. Being a republican is their identity, hating democrats is what they do because they are the "other." This of why you have a favorite sports team and hate their biggest rival, it's exactly the same thing.

Republicans talk about being a republican the same way sane people talk about being an American or a person. As a lifelong independent it makes no sense to me, but after I realized it I basically stopped watching sports because I realized the whole false identity thing was stupid there too.

 

[Zorba]

Another question. Ending the filibuster and ramming through voting rights and a national general election holiday would finish the GQP off right? Game over?
Then wtf...
They just tried to end you. If you dont respond in kind... they’ll get you the next time...

That by itself wouldn't end the GOP unless it also banned partisan gerrymandering.

Also need to expand the house. Make it 700 seats and the EC shouldn't split with the popular vote by 5% and the house wouldn't take 8+% for the dems to win.

 

[Muse]

It's not circular. Being a republican is their identity, hating democrats is what they do because they are the "other." This of why you have a favorite sports team and hate their biggest rival, it's exactly the same thing.

Republicans talk about being a republican the same way sane people talk about being an American or a person. As a lifelong independent it makes no sense to me, but after I realized it I basically stopped watching sports because I realized the whole false identity thing was stupid there too.

Not saying you should be watching sports or that your decision was wrong but I like to think it's possible to watch sports without partisanship. Easier said than done, I must say.

 

[Zorba]

Not saying you should be watching sports or that your decision was wrong but I like to think it's possible to watch sports without partisanship. Easier said than done, I must say.

I can enjoy watching sports just to enjoy watching, it's more that I've given up on being a real fan, so I don't make it was priority to watch any particular game.

 

[Commodus]

The sports parallel is very apt. As we've seen on this forum, many diehard Republican supporters as of late are only really interested in winning, not good governance — hence "owning the libs."

Part of why they latched on to Trump, I'd say, is because he embodies that winning-is-all-that-matters mindset. He's all about bragging (even if most of the claims are false or hollow), petty revenge against 'losers' (undoing Obama policies, for example), the superficial gloss of dominance. And it all culminated on January 6th, when Trump's rhetoric had convinced devotees they could violate the Constitution and numerous laws to force a Trump win.

 

[hal2kilo]

The sports parallel is very apt. As we've seen on this forum, many diehard Republican supporters as of late are only really interested in winning, not good governance — hence "owning the libs."

Part of why they latched on to Trump, I'd say, is because he embodies that winning-is-all-that-matters mindset. He's all about bragging (even if most of the claims are false or hollow), petty revenge against 'losers' (undoing Obama policies, for example), the superficial gloss of dominance. And it all culminated on January 6th, when Trump's rhetoric had convinced devotees they could violate the Constitution and numerous laws to force a Trump win.

It's like Yankee, Cowboy, or Steeler fans that aren't their local team. Why root for a loser.

 

[cytg111]

That by itself wouldn't end the GOP unless it also banned partisan gerrymandering.

Also need to expand the house. Make it 700 seats and the EC shouldn't split with the popular vote by 5% and the house wouldn't take 8+% for the dems to win.

Im serious though... If you dont take steps, you are gonna get shanked again. This time most likely fatally.

 

[pmv]

It's not circular. Being a republican is their identity, hating democrats is what they do because they are the "other." This of why you have a favorite sports team and hate their biggest rival, it's exactly the same thing.

Republicans talk about being a republican the same way sane people talk about being an American or a person. As a lifelong independent it makes no sense to me, but after I realized it I basically stopped watching sports because I realized the whole false identity thing was stupid there too.

Nah, I don't buy that. I _can't_ buy it, it's just not how I've ever seen the world. Politics is not sports. Though as it happens people supporting a sports team has always completely baffled me, except insofar as it's about identifying with your local neighbourhood, like a kind of small-scale "nationalism"...but as sports teams are mostly corporate mercenaries now and not rooted in a neighbourhood it makes no sense to me at all.

People's politics follows from their identity, from their formative experiences and from the particular types of self-interest they have given their circumstances (that are determined by demographics and accidents of birth, for the most part). Often down to quite small distinctions and nuances. It's not an arbitrary allegiance like a football team (or nvidia vs AMD!). It follows from self-interest that is in turn dependent on demographics.

 

[cytg111]

It's not circular. Being a republican is their identity, hating democrats is what they do because they are the "other." This of why you have a favorite sports team and hate their biggest rival, it's exactly the same thing.

Republicans talk about being a republican the same way sane people talk about being an American or a person. As a lifelong independent it makes no sense to me, but after I realized it I basically stopped watching sports because I realized the whole false identity thing was stupid there too.

I know one guy that only follows the most tribal sports so that he can troll people at his workplace. Both sides. Epic.

 

[Fenixgoon]

I know one guy that only follows the most tribal sports so that he can troll people at his workplace. Both sides. Epic.

That's a lot of work to troll people.

 

[Zorba]

Nah, I don't buy that. I _can't_ buy it, it's just not how I've ever seen the world. Politics is not sports. Though as it happens people supporting a sports team has always completely baffled me, except insofar as it's about identifying with your local neighbourhood, like a kind of small-scale "nationalism"...but as sports teams are mostly corporate mercenaries now and not rooted in a neighbourhood it makes no sense to me at all.

People's politics follows from their identity, from their formative experiences and from the particular types of self-interest they have given their circumstances (that are determined by demographics and accidents of birth, for the most part). Often down to quite small distinctions and nuances. It's not an arbitrary allegiance like a football team (or nvidia vs AMD!). It follows from self-interest that is in turn dependent on demographics.

You are from the UK. I'm from the American south. Being a republican is an identity to most people that live around me, even when their actual beliefs are liberal.

 

[cytg111]

That's a lot of work to troll people.

Guess you have to a little into the sports to make it work, but yea, why I dont do it. Mad props to him though.