Would be amusing if this was what the Obama administration was thinking and so they were desperate to pass the stimulus and take credit for it.
LK, the point is is that a loan modification such as being discussed by our gov't triggers the bankruptcy clause. BKs can affect all tranches equally so your AAA super nice tranche can potentially take a hit.... and those tranches are the super-senior debt. Something like a money market fund.
That's not scary?
Slew Foot
Lifer
- Sep 22, 2005
- 12,379
- 96
- 86
Was that guy calling the housing bubble back in 2005? No? Than his opinion isnt worth shit.
To be fair, another 12 to 18 months is probably a reasonable length to the recession. That would make this a 2-3 year recession which is very severe. Keeping in mind that when things start heading up next year, well still be significantly lower than we are even right now, itll be probably a good 3-4 years from now until we reach where we were in 2007.
To be fair, another 12 to 18 months is probably a reasonable length to the recession. That would make this a 2-3 year recession which is very severe. Keeping in mind that when things start heading up next year, well still be significantly lower than we are even right now, itll be probably a good 3-4 years from now until we reach where we were in 2007.
Given that only about 20% of the 800B is going to spent this year, it could very well be the case.
Given the stupidity of the american public and the bias of the press, he'll get away with it even if the recession gets worse when businesses realize that the "stimulus" will demand higher taxes from them soon.
I got an idea...I give the government $13 a week this year and $8 next year and they give me $9713 with interest.
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Genx87
Indeed, sadly in a negative equity position on my current home means I cant partake in the buying
There's a reason why Buffet and many others are contrarian investors. There's a good reason why there's the saying of be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy, or when there's blood on the streets, buy. It's because people like GT Keeper can never see the mitigating factors of a downturn, or even an upturn. He's a "here and now" guy.
I hear you. Taking what money I have and plowing it into the stock market. If I cant get in on a house. I think there is good profit to be made by this low valued market. Sure I think it may fall some more through this year. But I have a feeling the worst will be over by the end of 09. Buy in at 7-8K and see it appreciate back to 11-13K in 2010-11.
Yeah maybe you guys are right but I think too many deadbeats in this country voting themselves stuff combined with BabyBoomers about to tap govt coffers makes for big long term issues. I'm a permanent bear. Not a grizzly though more like a teddy and will hedge.
When i used to work I had a 403b and that means I could never roll over to IRA of any kind - forced into a pick of about 10 funds, can't move until I hit about 50 something i think 59.... - and all 10 are shit like lost 2/3 of what was in there in 2001. Anyway - I recent;y moved all into a "growth" type fund hoping to catch the potential rebound - or crash and burn - I dont care anymore it's not much to talk about either way.
These analyst and optimistic people need to look at reality... Until they can actually show some concrete numbers on a recovery they should shut up. I am sick of hearing this line; "history shows that we usually rebound in X amount of months, and the U.S. is the most sound economy in the world" We are indeed in a big crap hole right now regarding this economy.
Nemesis 1
Lifer
- Dec 30, 2006
- 11,366
- 2
- 0
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
That's what I say because we have maxed our credit out collectively. No more will foreigners believe these flimflam US bankers selling securities rated AAA by flimflam US rating agencies. The party is over, has been over since the 90's, only by hook or crook were we able to extract more credit line from actual producers in the world,
Hold.The.Phone.
Please look at U.S. Treasury's they are in huge demand,look to their yield. Currently Wallstreet's ineptitude and the whole securities debacle has not phased the Treasury market at all, infact it has strengthened it due to the overall global crunch.
*edit: by Treasury's I obviously mean notes
Warren Buffet can afford to lose more money than practically any one person or even some countries.
To bet the way he does is a sucker's play.
What he does is not relevant to me and my situation.
First
Lifer
- Jun 3, 2002
- 10,518
- 271
- 136
Buffet is responsible for millions of people's well being and knows his words have major impact on world economies. He has the track record of a responsible guy, as good as anyone else's, so his words mean something. And, frankly, his record speaks for itself.
Well, WB can buy and sell us all, so what's your point? Everyone thought Bernie Madeoff was a mensch, too.
He (WB & BM) still has discretionary income. I do not.
He (WB) is in "Investment" mode. I am in "Survival".
Apparently it IS a Zero Sum Game. If you have a ZERO sum, you can't play the game!
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
Can't believe you compare Buffet to MadeOFF.
Anyway I disagree with the premise some of you have that Buffet investing in stocks means it will go up in the short term since he takes long term view of things. Could be 5 years for or 1 we don't know his feelings on this.
Anyway I disagree with the premise some of you have that Buffet investing in stocks means it will go up in the short term since he takes long term view of things. Could be 5 years for or 1 we don't know his feelings on this.
I didn't compare him, I associated him.
You are comparing them.
Please know the difference.
As for Warren Buffet, I believe he could be the bait in The Bear Trap.
All good cons need a "big name" to lure as many marks in for the last play. Once they believe "the big guy" is "all in" the marks go in, hoping to ride the wave.
Only thing is the marks don't have the ability to re-fill after "an unexpected dip" occurs and wipes everyone out. Everyone except the "big guy".
It's never a Zero-Sum Game until you're wiped out.
economists are in mathematics the equivalent of shrinks to neuro-surgeons.
Their science is foundless like witchkraft!
They talk it up so they can suck a buck or two from it, they are like mudskippers in the everglades, spewing shit and sucking scum. Its good to see this whole thing and the grubs which feed of it all burn!
I reckon this is great stuff to watch, as all these wanna be rich types, who only 6months ago, drove round in beamers wearing gucci and wayfarers, now sit in queues for food stamps, hell it makes me wanna wet my pants seein' this crap! please let it last for years as I like to see the Y-gen get fucked over too, because they are whinny cock suckers like their babyboomer folks!
This is just free karma shitcakes for capitalists!
My tip is get into funeral palours or anti-depressant medication supply, big future in these sectors.
Their science is foundless like witchkraft!
They talk it up so they can suck a buck or two from it, they are like mudskippers in the everglades, spewing shit and sucking scum. Its good to see this whole thing and the grubs which feed of it all burn!
I reckon this is great stuff to watch, as all these wanna be rich types, who only 6months ago, drove round in beamers wearing gucci and wayfarers, now sit in queues for food stamps, hell it makes me wanna wet my pants seein' this crap! please let it last for years as I like to see the Y-gen get fucked over too, because they are whinny cock suckers like their babyboomer folks!
This is just free karma shitcakes for capitalists!
My tip is get into funeral palours or anti-depressant medication supply, big future in these sectors.
I'm not much of a RMBS guy (never did the term deal side of those, only warehousing) and even the other guy I know here who did RMBS term had never seen this type of structure (he usually did prime non-conforming).
Yeah, after reading through the PPM and tracing the definitions, it's pretty apparent that "excess losses" above the special reserves (BK, fraud...etc) are allocated to all bondholders.
This is a valid point, to a certain extent. The government is already considering purchasing the bonds and then modifying the loans. To the extent that the Servicer wants to seek an amendment to alter this situation they'd most likely need 100% of noteholder consent, as is usually the case for any alterations of prin balance or significant note attributes.
This is a problem but one that can be circumvented.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
I'd actually like to jump on board your train. Which is to say that with a recession being defined as contraction, the further shrinking of the economy may very well end this year, but from a more practical perspective, which I think is return to where the economy was, clearly that will not happen this year; i.e. the ground lost to date and ground that will continue to lose going forward is certainly not going to be recovered this year.
I see a lot of posts like this. You know, I really hope you are right. Part of me looks around and says that you are...
Unfortunately it also seems to me like many experts and hell, leaders in our society, have been so dead wrong, makes it hard to have much faith.
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
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