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shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
Originally posted by: blackangst1

My question is, who DIDNT see this coming? AFAIK everyone KNEW the bubble was going to burst....not sure what you mean by implying so few didnt know this would happen....
Exactly right. Knowing something really bad was going to happen at SOME point doesn't tell you when to bail from the market. Suppose you bail, and the market gains another 50% before the bubble bursts? That was the position most investors found themselves in.

The same applies in reverse: We all know that at SOME point the markets will recover. Will it be in two months, six months, a year, five years, ten years? At what point do those on the sidelines get back into the markets? If they time it wrong, they'll lose in a big way, same as those who didn't know when to get out of the markets.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
And you have any credibility at all? At least they are putting a theory out there with their own evidence and such. All you've got is some prognostications in your sig line about the oil bubble (lol, you're not the only one) and the bailout (guarantee ROI? Nobody ever said there was one and to even calculate an alternate universe where there was no bailout is stupid). You don't even work in finance/economics, so what the fuck do you have backing your shit up?

Ohh, that's right, the wind.
So now people on Anandtech need to have academic credentials to post in P&N? There are plenty with credentials and experience who make you look like a junior high drop out by comparison and who are in complete disagreement with you, so you'd do well to check your attitude at the door unless you have the proven track record to "back your shit up".
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: Genx87
Uncertaintly does play a role in the markets. Does this mean we will start to see growth by mid 09? I hope so but am not that optimistic.

I'd like to go back and correlelate recessions with change in administrations that will have differing economic policy.

Carter --> Reagan
Bush -->Clinton
Clinton-->Bush
Bush-->Obama

Recessions landed right through the transition or within a stones throw. I think there is something to be said about uncertaintly in the private sector. And it probably has to do with a change in economic policy in the executive branch.

Recessions may even be able to predict presidential elections. Business's can sense when a change in the guard is going to happen. For instance as bad as Bush looked in 04 he survived and our economy was hot in 04. The economy took a dump in late 07 as the republican primary was wrapping up and it was obvious a democrat was going to be in the white house. And with it a change in policy.

in 1992, was it clear the presidency was going to change? In 2000, was it clear that bush was going to win?


personally, i just see this as the cycles lining up over the last 20+ years. Not to mention that recessions tend to cause the opposition to be voted in.

Was it clear? No, but it seems like it can be predicted. Either way in 2000 Gore or Bush doesnt equal Clinton. Change was coming regardless.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
And you have any credibility at all? At least they are putting a theory out there with their own evidence and such. All you've got is some prognostications in your sig line about the oil bubble (lol, you're not the only one) and the bailout (guarantee ROI? Nobody ever said there was one and to even calculate an alternate universe where there was no bailout is stupid). You don't even work in finance/economics, so what the fuck do you have backing your shit up?

Ohh, that's right, the wind.
So now people on Anandtech need to have academic credentials to post in P&N? There are plenty with credentials and experience who make you look like a junior high drop out by comparison and who are in complete disagreement with you, so you'd do well to check your attitude at the door unless you have the proven track record to "back your shit up".

Who here even has a finance degree? Let alone an MBA? Let alone a CFA charter?

What about you there, Mr. Canuck? I'd love to know. Because there are maybe 3 people on here that can even come close to my education, experience, or ability to post meaningful information on finance/economics.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Budmantom
Originally posted by: Zebo
My Dad think this too he is buying up homes on auction block right now .... Contrarian investing is nothing new.


It's a great time to buy.

Indeed, sadly in a negative equity position on my current home means I cant partake in the buying :(

There's a reason why Buffet and many others are contrarian investors. There's a good reason why there's the saying of be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy, or when there's blood on the streets, buy. It's because people like GT Keeper can never see the mitigating factors of a downturn, or even an upturn. He's a "here and now" guy.


LK, are you saying we hit bottom then? Because that is not the 'here and now' point that I am taking. I do not think we have hit bottom, and we can discuss this later this year as well.

I never said we "hit bottom", because I don't think we have in all respects. I do think we are getting close in many areas.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
And you have any credibility at all? At least they are putting a theory out there with their own evidence and such. All you've got is some prognostications in your sig line about the oil bubble (lol, you're not the only one) and the bailout (guarantee ROI? Nobody ever said there was one and to even calculate an alternate universe where there was no bailout is stupid). You don't even work in finance/economics, so what the fuck do you have backing your shit up?

Ohh, that's right, the wind.
So now people on Anandtech need to have academic credentials to post in P&N? There are plenty with credentials and experience who make you look like a junior high drop out by comparison and who are in complete disagreement with you, so you'd do well to check your attitude at the door unless you have the proven track record to "back your shit up".

Who here even has a finance degree? Let alone an MBA? Let alone a CFA charter?

What about you there, Mr. Canuck? I'd love to know.
Who, now I'm less because I'm Canadian! You're getting awfully desperate, LK. I've noticed a problem you continually have: when people don't agree with you you get quite defensive and lash out like a cornered rat. Why is that? If only finance degrees and MBAs were the path to righteous truth in all things monetary, we'd not be in this mess now, would we? You seem woefully unaware of your own limitations. I have to wonder if your projected self-confidence belies a deeper rooted fragility in self-esteem.
 

bamacre

Lifer
Jul 1, 2004
21,029
2
81
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
And you have any credibility at all? At least they are putting a theory out there with their own evidence and such. All you've got is some prognostications in your sig line about the oil bubble (lol, you're not the only one) and the bailout (guarantee ROI? Nobody ever said there was one and to even calculate an alternate universe where there was no bailout is stupid). You don't even work in finance/economics, so what the fuck do you have backing your shit up?

Ohh, that's right, the wind.
So now people on Anandtech need to have academic credentials to post in P&N? There are plenty with credentials and experience who make you look like a junior high drop out by comparison and who are in complete disagreement with you, so you'd do well to check your attitude at the door unless you have the proven track record to "back your shit up".

Who here even has a finance degree? Let alone an MBA? Let alone a CFA charter?

What about you there, Mr. Canuck? I'd love to know. Because there are maybe 3 people on here that can even come close to my education, experience, or ability to post meaningful information on finance/economics.

I'm sure Dick Cheney knows all about foreign policy, too.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
And you have any credibility at all? At least they are putting a theory out there with their own evidence and such. All you've got is some prognostications in your sig line about the oil bubble (lol, you're not the only one) and the bailout (guarantee ROI? Nobody ever said there was one and to even calculate an alternate universe where there was no bailout is stupid). You don't even work in finance/economics, so what the fuck do you have backing your shit up?

Ohh, that's right, the wind.
So now people on Anandtech need to have academic credentials to post in P&N? There are plenty with credentials and experience who make you look like a junior high drop out by comparison and who are in complete disagreement with you, so you'd do well to check your attitude at the door unless you have the proven track record to "back your shit up".

Who here even has a finance degree? Let alone an MBA? Let alone a CFA charter?

What about you there, Mr. Canuck? I'd love to know.
Who, now I'm less because I'm Canadian! You're getting awfully desperate, LK. I've noticed a problem you continually have: when people don't agree with you you get quite defensive and lash out like a cornered rat. Why is that? If only finance degrees and MBAs were the path to righteous truth in all things monetary, we'd not be in this mess now, would we? You seem woefully unaware of your own limitations. I have to wonder if your projected self-confidence belies a deeper rooted fragility in self-esteem.

The canuck part was a joke. Please, nice projection upon me about your own feelings of self-worth because you are the person who brought this to "you can't measure up against education!" This was your thrust, not mine, and you're the one burying yourself with it.
 

TallBill

Lifer
Apr 29, 2001
46,017
62
91
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
And you have any credibility at all? At least they are putting a theory out there with their own evidence and such. All you've got is some prognostications in your sig line about the oil bubble (lol, you're not the only one) and the bailout (guarantee ROI? Nobody ever said there was one and to even calculate an alternate universe where there was no bailout is stupid). You don't even work in finance/economics, so what the fuck do you have backing your shit up?

Ohh, that's right, the wind.
So now people on Anandtech need to have academic credentials to post in P&N? There are plenty with credentials and experience who make you look like a junior high drop out by comparison and who are in complete disagreement with you, so you'd do well to check your attitude at the door unless you have the proven track record to "back your shit up".

Who here even has a finance degree? Let alone an MBA? Let alone a CFA charter?

What about you there, Mr. Canuck? I'd love to know. Because there are maybe 3 people on here that can even come close to my education, experience, or ability to post meaningful information on finance/economics.

Great, and economists are just pissing in the wind as well.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Budmantom
Originally posted by: Zebo
My Dad think this too he is buying up homes on auction block right now .... Contrarian investing is nothing new.


It's a great time to buy.

Indeed, sadly in a negative equity position on my current home means I cant partake in the buying :(

There's a reason why Buffet and many others are contrarian investors. There's a good reason why there's the saying of be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy, or when there's blood on the streets, buy. It's because people like GT Keeper can never see the mitigating factors of a downturn, or even an upturn. He's a "here and now" guy.


LK, are you saying we hit bottom then? Because that is not the 'here and now' point that I am taking. I do not think we have hit bottom, and we can discuss this later this year as well.

I never said we "hit bottom", because I don't think we have in all respects. I do think we are getting close in many areas.


I think there are too many unknowns to say we are 'close'. I think the reason Buffett might be thinking this is a bottom (and I would be one of the first to say, don't bet against Buffett) is that he doesn't know what the CDS market is like and he doesnt know what Hedge Funds are trying to do atm.

One of my main worries at the moment, that I found out about recently, is that securitizations of HELOC and Alt-As have a clause in them that if the underlying loan is modified (reduced in this case if we go along with the gov't plan), the % loss on it is taken pro-rata throughout the entire loan structure. I am sure you know what that means right? That is outright SCARY.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
The canuck part was a joke. Please, nice projection upon me about your own feelings of self-worth because you are the person who brought this to "you can't measure up against education!" This was your thrust, not mine, and you're the one burying yourself with it.
You went off on a silly credentials tangent and then of course torpedoed your own argument by the admission that you bought in on the market when the DOW was 11k in September. How's that doing for you?

Your problem is that despite your education, experience, or ability to post meaningful information on finance/economics, you still don't know an awful lot because nobody does. I readily admit I don't know much, but apparently in some areas I do know more than people who's entire jobs is to work in an area, a point which if you were not so full of yourself you'd understand. E.G. oil was a bubble but people with more credentials than, say our resident finance guru (that would be you), didn't think it was and thought it would keep on marching up.

Credentials are something, not everything.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Budmantom
Originally posted by: Zebo
My Dad think this too he is buying up homes on auction block right now .... Contrarian investing is nothing new.


It's a great time to buy.

Indeed, sadly in a negative equity position on my current home means I cant partake in the buying :(

There's a reason why Buffet and many others are contrarian investors. There's a good reason why there's the saying of be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy, or when there's blood on the streets, buy. It's because people like GT Keeper can never see the mitigating factors of a downturn, or even an upturn. He's a "here and now" guy.


LK, are you saying we hit bottom then? Because that is not the 'here and now' point that I am taking. I do not think we have hit bottom, and we can discuss this later this year as well.

I never said we "hit bottom", because I don't think we have in all respects. I do think we are getting close in many areas.


I think there are too many unknowns to say we are 'close'. I think the reason Buffett might be thinking this is a bottom (and I would be one of the first to say, don't bet against Buffett) is that he doesn't know what the CDS market is like and he doesnt know what Hedge Funds are trying to do atm.

One of my main worries at the moment, that I found out about recently, is that securitizations of HELOC and Alt-As have a clause in them that if the underlying loan is modified (reduced in this case if we go along with the gov't plan), the % loss on it is taken pro-rata throughout the entire loan structure. I am sure you know what that means right? That is outright SCARY.

Not sure what you mean by the % loss taken through the whole structure. Do you mean socialized losses from the bondholder perspective in the securitization?

Or, do you mean that a HELOC would be effected if the primary mortgage were written down?

If it's the latter that is not a surprise, as HELOCs are nothing more than 2nd mortgages, the primary mortgage has to be paid first before the HELOC is repaid. As far as an Alt-A, if it's a first position perfected mortgage then it wouldn't be affected to the same extent.

I think you may be confusing a couple different terms, where did you get the info? I'd rather read it on a first-hand basis.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
The canuck part was a joke. Please, nice projection upon me about your own feelings of self-worth because you are the person who brought this to "you can't measure up against education!" This was your thrust, not mine, and you're the one burying yourself with it.
You went off on a silly credentials tangent and then of course torpedoed your own argument by the admission that you bought in on the market when the DOW was 11k in September. How's that doing for you?

Your problem is that despite your education, experience, or ability to post meaningful information on finance/economics, you still don't know an awful lot because nobody does. I readily admit I don't know much, but apparently in some areas I do know more than people who's entire jobs is to work in an area, a point which if you were not so full of yourself you'd understand. E.G. oil was a bubble but people with more credentials than, say our resident finance guru (that would be you), didn't think it was and thought it would keep on marching up.

Credentials are something, not everything.

Let's start from the beginning.

First, you post this.

And that's why it will be so much funnier to lawl when they get this wrong, won't it. Being an assistant professor and aspiring to get a PhD hardly merits one as a captain of industry, if we're going to measure dicks, and even if we were there are plenty of people with magnitudes more credentials than these guys who fvcked up in this.

Undercutting people based upon title and education because they disagreed with your theory. Wow, great job there sparky.


Then you go into this.

Yes, but since there are people with plenty of qualifications and experience who see this thing in completely antithetical ways, it's going to take a lot more than an assistant professorship to strongarm me into deference, especially when we have a chief economist from ML who probably wouldn't agree with these two.

This one is just full of LOL. Not only do you just blatantly rubber-stamp because you just agree with the guy's premise, but then you throw titles around again. Especially when your article comes from the "chief economist" from one of the most thoroughly fucked up banks who completely BLEW THIS ENTIRE SITUATION! Wow, he has such a great fucking track record! You're so eager to suck him off that you forget he is one of "these guys who fvcked up in this."

So please, stop the bullshit sham. You want to polish the knob of anybody who agrees with you, yet you deride anybody who doesn't.

I didn't invest in Dow@11k as a short-term movement. This is what people fail to understand, timing the market is impossible, you invest when you think you should, if it goes down a little in the short-term, who gives a crap. In 20 years it won't matter.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: Skoorb
That's it? He bases this all on some fear index. Like that's basically all of it. Not convinced, however he has a promising career working for the Federal Reserve with attitudes like his.

Hopefully somebody will bump this in 6 months for lawls.

BTW the authors to this essay are an "assistant professor" and a "PhD Candidate".

By all means bump it in 6 months. At this point we have hit bottom, so we should start trending up.

Internet advertising has hit bottom and is heading back up.
Baltic dry index(futures for ocean shipping) has made a significant rebound
copper futures have leveled and have made very small upward gains(copper is a leading indicator)
A friend of mine who works at amazon tells me they are extremely good sales right now.

Housing market has stabilized. Home sales, even in trouble markets are way up.
foreclosures are trending back downwards, even in the trouble markets. The flip side is that prices are way down, but that had to happen. Inventory is moving, whish mean construction should start coming back as inventories fall.


Most recessions in the us are only 12 months. A long recession in the US is 18 months. We are already 15 months into this one.

In 6 months i am pretty sure we are going to be seeing a far better picture than today. I bet the economy turns around before the 800B stimulus package realy starts to hit the streets.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
LK, my head hurts.

Let's just leave it at Credentials are something, not everything. and enjoy our lunch hour :)
By all means bump it in 6 months.
I hope I'm wrong. I just doubt it. In the end some people here will get pwned, but ultimately we're just names on a message board anyway, so it's not the end of the world :p
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Skoorb
LK, my head hurts.

Let's just leave it at Credentials are something, not everything. and enjoy our lunch hour :)
By all means bump it in 6 months.
I hope I'm wrong. I just doubt it. In the end some people here will get pwned, but ultimately we're just names on a message board anyway, so it's not the end of the world :p

Ohhh so now you want to back out of this argument slowly and cop out with a "something, but not everything", which you weren't parroting before. Fine, you can go ahead and do that, but we all know that credentials are everything to you when the person agrees with you and mean absolutely nothing when they don't.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Skoorb
LK, my head hurts.

Let's just leave it at Credentials are something, not everything. and enjoy our lunch hour :)
By all means bump it in 6 months.
I hope I'm wrong. I just doubt it. In the end some people here will get pwned, but ultimately we're just names on a message board anyway, so it's not the end of the world :p

Ohhh so now you want to back out of this argument slowly and cop out with a "something, but not everything", which you weren't parroting before. Fine, you can go ahead and do that, but we all know that credentials are everything to you when the person agrees with you and mean absolutely nothing when they don't.
I honestly cannot be bothered to go back and piece together my argument again. I cannot. Perhaps my initial comment was that even those with great credentials have made a real mess of this, so those who don't even have a bunch of titles after their name probably know even less.

You win.

 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,884
10,204
136
Well, since you ignored the article entirely, let's make some of the key points more public. To sum it up, we are in a depression today, and not just a mere recession. I, once again, suggest you view the PDF file and examine the charts they use.

Link

$6 trillion in private sector debt must be eliminated
This was a 20-year secular credit expansion that went parabolic starting in 2001-
02 as the Fed and the federal government moved to offset the lingering deflation
in the technology capital stock by invoking policies that touched off a massive
reflation of the housing stock. Since the credit cycle ended in the fall of 2007, an
estimated $1 trillion of bad debt has either been written down or recognized. But
considering that total private sector credit market debt relative to national income
is still near a record-high of 140% versus a long-run norm of 80%, the meanreversion
process suggests that before we can even consider embarking on a
fresh credit cycle, more than $6 trillion of excess household and corporate debt
has to be eliminated.

Still in the early stages of the credit contraction
In the household sector alone, mean reverting debt-to-asset or debt-to-income
ratios would imply that anywhere from $4 to $6 trillion of leverage has to be
extinguished before we can bring the outstanding level of liabilities to levels that
would allow for a return to a sustainable pace of credit creation. So, barely more
than a year into this credit contraction ? on the heels of an unprecedented twodecade
doubling in private sector debt ratios, mostly but not entirely in the
household sector, and $1 trillion of writeoffs in the context of as much as $6
trillion excessive private sector debt that continues to overhang the economy ? it
is truly difficult to believe that
A 20% hole driven into the household balance sheet
The missing piece in most analysis regarding the efficacy of government policy in
terms of rejuvenating a new cycle of borrowing and spending is the extent of
trauma that has taken place on the household balance sheet since the housing
bubble popped in 2006 and the equity bull market reversed course in 2007. We
estimate that the cumulative loss of household net worth as of the end of 2008
was $13 trillion. In other words, a 20% hole has been driven into the household
balance sheet, which has not happened since the 1930s. So far, the loss of
wealth in the household sector has been half as much in the Great Depression,
but if we are anywhere near the ballpark on our 660 call on the S&P 500 and a
further 15% downside to home prices, then by the end of 2009 the total hit to net
worth will approximate $20 trillion, or 40% from the 2007 peak, which indeed
would rival the severe hit to household balance sheet incurred in the 1930s.
 

JMapleton

Diamond Member
Nov 19, 2008
4,179
2
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
I bought put options Jan 2010 exp. on Citi, Sovereign bank, HSBC back in October of 2008. Do you think I lost money on that? Sold out of Citi after it tanked from 12 to 3, when Soverign 'wouldn't go any lower but it did from 3 to 2. HSBC went from a 7 to a 3 handle and guess what? Its probably not even done. So ya, my econmic doom and gloom is making me some money, how's is your economic optimism treating you?

I do not invest for the long term, I only trade but I have been doing very well trading financially solid companies when they hit double or triple bottoms due to sell offs.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Budmantom
Originally posted by: Zebo
My Dad think this too he is buying up homes on auction block right now .... Contrarian investing is nothing new.


It's a great time to buy.

Indeed, sadly in a negative equity position on my current home means I cant partake in the buying :(

There's a reason why Buffet and many others are contrarian investors. There's a good reason why there's the saying of be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy, or when there's blood on the streets, buy. It's because people like GT Keeper can never see the mitigating factors of a downturn, or even an upturn. He's a "here and now" guy.


LK, are you saying we hit bottom then? Because that is not the 'here and now' point that I am taking. I do not think we have hit bottom, and we can discuss this later this year as well.

I never said we "hit bottom", because I don't think we have in all respects. I do think we are getting close in many areas.


I think there are too many unknowns to say we are 'close'. I think the reason Buffett might be thinking this is a bottom (and I would be one of the first to say, don't bet against Buffett) is that he doesn't know what the CDS market is like and he doesnt know what Hedge Funds are trying to do atm.

One of my main worries at the moment, that I found out about recently, is that securitizations of HELOC and Alt-As have a clause in them that if the underlying loan is modified (reduced in this case if we go along with the gov't plan), the % loss on it is taken pro-rata throughout the entire loan structure. I am sure you know what that means right? That is outright SCARY.

Not sure what you mean by the % loss taken through the whole structure. Do you mean socialized losses from the bondholder perspective in the securitization?

Or, do you mean that a HELOC would be effected if the primary mortgage were written down?

If it's the latter that is not a surprise, as HELOCs are nothing more than 2nd mortgages, the primary mortgage has to be paid first before the HELOC is repaid. As far as an Alt-A, if it's a first position perfected mortgage then it wouldn't be affected to the same extent.

I think you may be confusing a couple different terms, where did you get the info? I'd rather read it on a first-hand basis.

Sure here it is:

Basially if the gov't decides to write these loans down, all tranches are hit equally right off the bat.


This is quoted from http://www.secinfo.com/drjtj.u3d2.htm

Quote:

A "Deficient Valuation" is a bankruptcy proceeding whereby the
bankruptcy court may establish the value of the mortgaged property at an
amount less than the then outstanding principal balance of the Mortgage Loan
secured by the mortgaged property or may reduce the outstanding principal
balance of a Mortgage Loan. In the case of a reduction in that value of the
related mortgaged property, the amount of the secured debt could be reduced to
that value, and the holder of the Mortgage Loan thus would become an unsecured
creditor to the extent the outstanding principal balance of the Mortgage Loan
exceeds the value so assigned to the mortgaged property by the bankruptcy
court. In addition, other modifications of the terms of a Mortgage Loan can
result from a bankruptcy proceeding, including the reduction (a "Debt Service
Reduction") of the amount of the monthly payment on the related Mortgage Loan.
However, none of these shall be considered a Debt Service Reduction or
Deficient Valuation so long as the Servicer is pursuing any other remedies
that may be available with respect to the related Mortgage Loan and either the
Mortgage Loan has not incurred payment default or scheduled monthly payments
of principal and interest are being advanced by the Servicer without giving
effect to any Debt Service Reduction or Deficient Valuation.

And another Quote:

In general, a "Realized Loss" means, for a Liquidated Mortgage Loan, the
amount by which the remaining unpaid principal balance of the Mortgage Loan
exceeds the amount of liquidation proceeds applied to the principal balance of
the related Mortgage Loan. "Excess Losses" are Special Hazard Losses in excess
of the Special Hazard Loss Coverage Amount, Bankruptcy Losses in excess of the
Bankruptcy Loss Coverage Amount and Fraud Losses in excess of the Fraud Loss
Coverage Amount. "Bankruptcy Losses" are losses that are incurred as a result
of Debt Service Reductions and Deficient Valuations. "Special Hazard Losses"
are Realized Losses in respect of Special Hazard Mortgage Loans. "Fraud
Losses" are losses sustained on a Liquidated Mortgage Loan by reason of a
default arising from fraud, dishonesty or misrepresentation.
 

JMapleton

Diamond Member
Nov 19, 2008
4,179
2
81
Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
It's easy to sell a ton of fear, far more difficult to sell a modicum of rationality.

Here, have a healthy dose of rationality.

Why we are in a depression.

Read the link in the OP there.

That's not worth the read because in that article it clearly says there is no set definition for a "depression." So it's equal to calling someone "stupid," or "slow," it's relative and up to the observer.

Evenso, the article claims depressions can last as little as 3 years and given we're one and a half into this one, we could only have 18 months left, thus making my op's argument valid.
 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,548
943
126
There is no fear with Obama in charge!

He will fix the worlds problems and provide me with reparations soon -


* The next bubble to burst will be the commercial real estate market. With all of the businesses going out of business and corporate downsizing occuring look for a major glut of real estate that will not be absorbed and more defaults.


 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: Fmr12B
There is no fear with Obama in charge!

He will fix the worlds problems and provide me with reparations soon -


* The next bubble to burst will be the commercial real estate market. With all of the businesses going out of business and corporate downsizing occuring look for a major glut of real estate that will not be absorbed and more defaults.

According to LK it will not be anywhere near the residential market crisis and it will be a modest downturn.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Sure here it is:

Quote:

A "Deficient Valuation" is a bankruptcy proceeding whereby the
bankruptcy court may establish the value of the mortgaged property at an
amount less than the then outstanding principal balance of the Mortgage Loan
secured by the mortgaged property or may reduce the outstanding principal
balance of a Mortgage Loan. In the case of a reduction in that value of the
related mortgaged property, the amount of the secured debt could be reduced to
that value, and the holder of the Mortgage Loan thus would become an unsecured
creditor to the extent the outstanding principal balance of the Mortgage Loan
exceeds the value so assigned to the mortgaged property by the bankruptcy
court. In addition, other modifications of the terms of a Mortgage Loan can
result from a bankruptcy proceeding, including the reduction (a "Debt Service
Reduction") of the amount of the monthly payment on the related Mortgage Loan.
However, none of these shall be considered a Debt Service Reduction or
Deficient Valuation so long as the Servicer is pursuing any other remedies
that may be available with respect to the related Mortgage Loan and either the
Mortgage Loan has not incurred payment default or scheduled monthly payments
of principal and interest are being advanced by the Servicer without giving
effect to any Debt Service Reduction or Deficient Valuation.

All this is saying is that any mortgage principal balance above the valuation amount will become unsecured. Other modifications can occur, per the bankruptcy court, but if the servicer is pursuing other remedies, then the BK court won't enact their own judgments.

And another Quote:

In general, a "Realized Loss" means, for a Liquidated Mortgage Loan, the
amount by which the remaining unpaid principal balance of the Mortgage Loan
exceeds the amount of liquidation proceeds applied to the principal balance of
the related Mortgage Loan. "Excess Losses" are Special Hazard Losses in excess
of the Special Hazard Loss Coverage Amount, Bankruptcy Losses in excess of the
Bankruptcy Loss Coverage Amount and Fraud Losses in excess of the Fraud Loss
Coverage Amount. "Bankruptcy Losses" are losses that are incurred as a result
of Debt Service Reductions and Deficient Valuations. "Special Hazard Losses"
are Realized Losses in respect of Special Hazard Mortgage Loans. "Fraud
Losses" are losses sustained on a Liquidated Mortgage Loan by reason of a
default arising from fraud, dishonesty or misrepresentation.

Again, without looking into too much detail, it looks like by "coverage amount", they are referring to loss reserves, any amounts lost over the loss reserves will hit the principal balance of the bonds.

Not all tranches are effected equally. First, subordinate tranches will get hit first, the lowest tranche, the loss reserves, will get hit first. Then, as losses mount, the next highest tranches will get hit. ALL bonds within a tranche are hit pro-rata. The last tranche, usually AAA will only get hit when all tranches below it suffer 100% losses.

For example, if the loss reserves are 3% of principal balance of the loans in a securitization, and losses are 3%, then the loss reserves are wiped out. If the BBB tranche is 2% of the loan pool and 4% losses are realized, then 50% of all BBB bonds are written down. If there is a total of 8% collateral underneath the AAA bonds and there are 8% losses, then all bonds underneath are written down 100%. At 8.1% loss, then .1% of the collateral is written down and that loss is applied to all AAA bonds pro-rata.

Keep in mind that if the home goes into foreclosure, then the home is only worth what the market value dictates. If there was a $100,000 mortgage that the securitization trust holds and the house is worth $50,000, then the securitization trust will realize a 100,000 default with a 50% loss severity. In addition, since the home is now REO (real estate owned), the trust is now responsible for maintenance, taxes, HOA, refurbishment, and any sales commissions. The net realized value of the recovery, net of judicial foreclosure procedural costs, are deducted from the recovered value.

Thus, let's say that the home won't be sold for a year and more than $10K of maintenance, sales comms, taxes, and other costs are incurred, then the trust actually realizes a 60% loss severity.


Now, let's say we keep the obligor in the house. We write-down the mortgage to 50K and then let the other 50K go unsecured. If the homeowner pays, on time, for the next 5 years, the 50K unsecured is totally written down and goes away.

What has happened?

First off, the 10k of taxes and other costs, do not occur in the securitization trusts eyes. Second, the securitization trust then realizes 6% interest from the mortgage payment. If costs of the trust were 5%, including all servicing fees, then the trust realizes 1% per annum of "excess spread". This means that 1% of principal, per year, is re-realized by the bond holders. If this continues for 10 years, then using simple math (not interest calcs of an amortizing loan), 10% of additional principal will have been recovered.


You see, if the securitization trust just allows a judicial foreclosure, they recover only 40k. If they write down everything, they recover 55K+. Which scenario is "better"?
 

Jiggz

Diamond Member
Mar 10, 2001
4,329
0
76
I wonder if we start charging even only a dollar for every word for inaccurately forecasting the economy if we will ever see this kind of forecasting? The only reason these forecasters are bold enough to speculate is because it doesn't cost them any! Anyways, this PH.D candidate probably got it right that we will be out of recession soon and will be going to depression!