The Other Unemployment Rate - 41% of adults not working

[Apple Of Sodom]

Call it

10% retired

10% unemployed but wanting work

5% students

5% stay at home moms with a working husband

You are already at 30%

Clearly making up numbers does nothing to help.
I was a student for 7 years. I worked full time the entire length, even through my MSE. There is no reason a student can't work.

We can justify numbers all we want. We can find mitigating factors. If we explain away the problem, it still doesn't fix it. We do need to acknowledge that this is the lowest number it has ever been.

 

[nehalem256]

Clearly making up numbers does nothing to help.
I was a student for 7 years. I worked full time the entire length, even through my MSE. There is no reason a student can't work.

We can justify numbers all we want. We can find mitigating factors. If we explain away the problem, it still doesn't fix it. We do need to acknowledge that this is the lowest number it has ever been.

I was trying to throw out some ballpark numbers to explain it.

And it is not the lowest. The labor force participation rate was lower pre-1980.

 

[SheHateMe]

I'm just sitting here trying to make sense of how successful sales of iPhones, Macbooks, Beats By Dr. Dre, and Video Games have been over the past year or so...and these damn Unemployment numbers.

Like, I want someone to go through a Queue at an iPhone release or a Black Friday event and take a survey of how many of these people are working...and if they aren't how the hell are they buying all this fancy stuff.

 

[Farang]

It's a lot easier to understand these numbers are bullshit when you're one of the people they misrepresent. I don't work on a W2 for anybody and am probably included in the 'unemployed not looking for work' numbers. I still do work and earn a living.

Just because you aren't an employee doesn't mean you don't work.

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

Out of the 100 people that applied...guess how many bothered to send that Questionnaire back in?

I would be surprised if it was more than 10%.

People say they want to work. Everyone wants to be a CEO or a supervisor. Nobody wants to start on the ground level. It is more lucrative to be unemployed. People cannot see the potential for growth, personally and professionally. They see a job at $10/hr and don't realize they could be making twice that in a year or two... or they could just be on assistance for life.

We just need our employees to show up on time and work a full shift. Half of them always find an excuse to call in, or work half a shift, or bitch about working. This generation wants to make money, not earn it.

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

It's a lot easier to understand these numbers are bullshit when you're one of the people they misrepresent. I don't work on a W2 for anybody and am probably included in the 'unemployed not looking for work' numbers. I still do work and earn a living.

Just because you aren't an employee doesn't mean you don't work.

They aren't all bullshit. Even if half of that total were just like you (maybe a day trader) then that is still a shitload of people not working.

Do you pay income tax?

 

[Farang]

I would be surprised if it was more than 10%.

People say they want to work. Everyone wants to be a CEO or a supervisor. Nobody wants to start on the ground level. It is more lucrative to be unemployed. People cannot see the potential for growth, personally and professionally. They see a job at $10/hr and don't realize they could be making twice that in a year or two... or they could just be on assistance for life.

We just need our employees to show up on time and work a full shift. Half of them always find an excuse to call in, or work half a shift, or bitch about working. This generation wants to make money, not earn it.

I've read a lot about how this generation is much more entrepreneurial, based on the fact that they weren't able to get jobs out of college they had to figure out and be successful in more creative ways. I think that definitely explains myself.. I got the experience I needed to get started, realized how my skills were being monetized by a corporation, and decided I could just go do that myself.

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

I've read a lot about how this generation is much more entrepreneurial, based on the fact that they weren't able to get jobs out of college they had to figure out and be successful in more creative ways. I think that definitely explains myself.. I got the experience I needed to get started, realized how my skills were being monetized by a corporation, and decided I could just go do that myself.

So are you self-employed? Are you a 1099 contractor? Do you have a business license?

 

[pauldun170]

I didn't claim that and I even mentioned certain segments that don't want to work, which is fine. I don't believe that 40% of Americans are retired or stay at home moms/dads. Are there more of them now than there were in 2000 when our labor pool was highest?

I didn't even read your post.
I was simply making a mental note and this thread was open.

 

[Farang]

So are you self-employed? Are you a 1099 contractor? Do you have a business license?

Why do you ask?

 

[SheHateMe]

I would be surprised if it was more than 10%.

People say they want to work. Everyone wants to be a CEO or a supervisor. Nobody wants to start on the ground level. It is more lucrative to be unemployed. People cannot see the potential for growth, personally and professionally. They see a job at $10/hr and don't realize they could be making twice that in a year or two... or they could just be on assistance for life.

We just need our employees to show up on time and work a full shift. Half of them always find an excuse to call in, or work half a shift, or bitch about working. This generation wants to make money, not earn it.

Pretty much. My boss told me that the reason he started sending applicants a list of questions to answer is because when he puts the salary for the student position in the listing..he will get 50 apps on just that number alone.

Not the job title or the description...applying for the damn money!

I have a cousin who is a Freshman at my Uni this year, her mom and dad make tons of money but told her they wanted her to work while shes away at school so she can pay for clothes and entertainment. They are paying her tuition and her room and board. All they want her to do is clothe herself, pay for toiletries, personal upkeep and pay to have fun. I reached out to her and offered to hook her up with my little sister (a year above her, same Uni) who could get her a job working concessions for sporting events and such at the school. My sister would have no problem getting her in as shes a Supervisor. She turned down my offer to help.

The next day she went on Twitter and Facebook and bitched about how her parents were "torturing" her because they wanted her to get a job. Said she wasn't "cut out" for work. Shes too "delicate". Some other BS.

Then she turned around the next day and complained about how she didn't have any money for the mall.

*sigh*

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

Why do you ask?

If you are a 1099 (then you must have a business license) then you are self-employed and don't count.

If not then you aren't paying taxes on your income and you are part of the reason the system is broken.

 

[randomrogue]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/18/news/economy/other-unemployment-rate/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Interesting article. The unemployment percentage only includes individuals who are unemployed and have searched for a job in the last 4 weeks. It does not include all of the people who quit looking, haven't searched for more than 4 weeks, are too proud to claim unemployment, or simply don't want to work.

"The employment-to-population ratio is the best measure of labor market conditions and it currently shows that there has been almost no improvement whatsoever over the past three years,"

The article states that the trend is continuing. While it is the worst it has ever been it has been in decline for years and years.

Do you think this is a problem with our country? Why do so many people not want to work? When we talk about raising taxes, class warfare, the poor barely being able to survive...keep in mind that NEARLY HALF of all Americans are out of work because they choose to be for one reason or another. They aren't technically unemployed; they aren't even looking for a job.

You kinda have to be careful. While I agree that unemployment numbers are really misleading and they keep changing how they count it for political gain, if you were to use unemployment to population it would include me as unemployed despite the fact that I'm working - just not in the USA.

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

You kinda have to be careful. While I agree that unemployment numbers are really misleading and they keep changing how they count it for political gain, if you were to use unemployment to population it would include me as unemployed despite the fact that I'm working - just not in the USA.

Are you self-employed? Then you don't count in the number.
If you are living in USA and not paying taxes on money made overseas, you are a problem.

 

[randomrogue]

Nice contribution. I can see you must have been on the debate team at your highschool.

I am an employer and have a hell of a time trying to find employees. Of my employees only half want to be there. The other half constantly job hop and do not want to work at all. One girl is unemployed and won't accept a job because we split tips with all staff instead of just the cashiers...it is ridiculous.

A quick glance through employment pages shows there are a lot of jobs open. Sure, a lot are only a buck or two above minimum wage, but it is still employment. I'm not saying we have 10 million vacancies...but I can tell you what the labor pool is like and how hard it is to find people to fill positions.

Slightly elitist on your part. Would you work for $8 an hour? I think a lot of people would choose to take out a loan and live off that before going from $80,000 a year to $8 an hour.

I have NO idea what the actual unemployment numbers are but throwing out that huge number is incredibly misleading. There are countless people who simply don't belong in the workforce from students, retirees, handicapped people from families that can afford to support them, and people who can afford to not work for a couple years until the dust settles.

 

[pauldun170]

I'm just sitting here trying to make sense of how successful sales of iPhones, Macbooks, Beats By Dr. Dre, and Video Games have been over the past year or so...and these damn Unemployment numbers.

Like, I want someone to go through a Queue at an iPhone release or a Black Friday event and take a survey of how many of these people are working...and if they aren't how the hell are they buying all this fancy stuff.

I'm employed and just jumped on the smartphone bandwagon with a hand me down HTC incredible from a gazillion years ago.

My younger sister's friends (bunch of 20 somethings) all have the latest gadgets, new cars, bar hopping on the weekends and constantly complain about jobs and money.

There was a point I was going to make but then my mind turned to girls in their 20's.
Damn that's such a good age.

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

Slightly elitist on your part. Would you work for $8 an hour? I think a lot of people would choose to take out a loan and live off that before going from $80,000 a year to $8 an hour.

I have NO idea what the actual unemployment numbers are but throwing out that huge number is incredibly misleading. There are countless people who simply don't belong in the workforce from students, retirees, handicapped people from families that can afford to support them, and people who can afford to not work for a couple years until the dust settles.

Elitist, how? I have and I would again. I've started at the bottom making poverty level wages and put myself in the position to make what I do now and I could do it again. I would not want to...

But I hedged my bet and invested in an education and saved up money. I have positioned myself to not need to do that (hopefully) through hard work and dedication. But yes, 10 years ago I was making just over $10/hour and a full time college student.

 

[Darwin333]

The baby boomer generation is retiring and the number of them retiring was not a linear thing.

Note: this graph doesn't show who is retiring but rather the potential of people who will be eligible to retire.

It does show who will be eligible for Medicare/medicaid (whichever is for old people) which will balloon our already 9% a year inflation rate in the cost of those two programs which was $865 billion this year alone.

Just using 9% a year, which has been the rate for decades, and not accounting for the additional per capita enrollment it will cost us 2 trillion for just medicare/medicaid in 10 short years.

 

[randomrogue]

Are you self-employed? Then you don't count in the number.
If you are living in USA and not paying taxes on money made overseas, you are a problem.

No, I live overseas, work, and pay my taxes here. The USA has no idea I don't live there. I still file my taxes in the states but it's just for capital gains and doesn't include work.

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

I'm employed and just jumped on the smartphone bandwagon with a hand me down HTC incredible from a gazillion years ago.

My younger sister's friends (bunch of 20 somethings) all have the latest gadgets, new cars, bar hopping on the weekends and constantly complain about jobs and money.

There was a point I was going to make but then my mind turned to girls in their 20's.
Damn that's such a good age.

One day your sister's friends will be 30. They will be working entry level jobs and complaining about living paycheck to paycheck. They will complain about gas prices and food prices and how they can't afford a nice apartment.

Meanwhile, right now, there are students who are working a job to pay for college while attending classes at a university. They aren't having as much fun as your sister's friends, but when they are 30 they will have steady income, a full gas tank and food in the fridge.

When your sister's friends are 50, they won't remember how awesome it was to party in their 20s. They just know that they worked their asses off for 30 years and don't have a cent in savings (like most Americans.) They will see their grandkids on days when they aren't greeting people at Wal-Mart. Meanwhile the people who went without in their early 20s now take yearly vacations to Hawaii and are getting ready to retire to spend more time with their grandkids.

A little investment early on in life really pays off. Make your choice, because either lifestyle is fine and some people are better off being time rich and money poor...but they shouldn't complain about their choices.

 

[mshan]

"Unlike the employment-to-population ratio, average work hours have largely recovered since 2009. Earlier this year, the average hours series reached 100, which was its value for much of 2007.

To put it another way, 93 percent of the people who would have been employed in an economy such as we had in 2007 are employed today and are likely to feel that they are as busy with work today as they were then. The other 7 percent are not working at all."


http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/the-asymmetric-recovery/

"But the employment-population ratio is influenced by important factors beyond the control of the president. One of them is the aging of the baby boomers. The employment-population ratio was expected to fall as baby boomers reached retirement ages between 2008 and 2015, even without a recession. For this reason alone, a full recovery would mean an employment-population percentage of about 61."


http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/the-baby-boom-and-economic-recovery/?ref=business

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/understanding-decline-in-participation.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

"one great statistic is most of these businesses are operating at about 70% or 80% of the 2007 peak in revenue. their profitability is back to 2007/2008 levels. because they cut the heck out of jobs. yes. 30% fewer people working in these jobs. and automation ( http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...teal-your-job/ taken out tons of jobs ). the old belly to belly salesman is replaced with an ipad and other information. we don't have to have all these people chasing inventories. the stories of productivity are incredible in these plants. you're not going to get some of those old jobs back. unless you get big demand. because you've got to put more people in the street for that. but in general, the stories are the same. oh, we're recovering. yeah, we're back to 75% of where we were in '07. but our profits are back to where they were. but we're 30% down in people. it's a common theme. business after business after business."


http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000117011&play=1 (specific comments are around 2:40 mark, but I recommend starting at 1:40 point for greater context)

IIRC, Morningstar economist Bob Johnson said about 1/4 of jobs lost during The Great Recession were directly tied to construction (when we were building 1 million more homes than needed, essentially stealing jobs and demand from future), and another 1/4 were derivative jobs of the housing boom.

How many jobs have been permanently replaced by robots and automation (Brandeis University economist on CNBC said as many jobs have been lost to automation as to China).

And I think average work week under Obama is 2 hours more than under Bush years, which if employers hired new workers instead of working current ones more, would be equivalent of another 2 million jobs created...

 

[randomrogue]

Elitist, how? I have and I would again. I've started at the bottom making poverty level wages and put myself in the position to make what I do now and I could do it again. I would not want to...

But I hedged my bet and invested in an education and saved up money. I have positioned myself to not need to do that (hopefully) through hard work and dedication. But yes, 10 years ago I was making just over $10/hour and a full time college student.

No you're being dishonest to try to make a point. I know it's great to say that you worked from the bottom up and would do it again if you had to but truth is you would never have to and you never would. By now you understand that time is money and you time is and forever will be worth more than minimum wage or anything close to it. Nobody is going to make you do it. You could live off your savings and you would be included in the unemployed number. I made $10 an hour in college too and I would never do that again. I don't have to, you don't have to, and lots of other people don't have to. The numbers you put forth are incredibly misleading. You have it in your head that a huge portion of the country is a bunch of deadbeats but I'm not buying the whole "They have the newest phone argument". A phone costs a couple of $10 bills a month. It is completely irrelevant to the huge problems we have.

If you want more people to work you have to create jobs. Viable jobs. The issue we have has been going on for over 20 years. Lots of service sector jobs and less high end jobs. Manufacturing and engineering and other higher paying jobs have been moved overseas and what is left is a lot of remedial and low paying jobs. You can't ask a guy who worked as an assembly line supervisor for 40 years to suddenly go from making $65,000 a year to $15,000 a year working at Subway. It's stupid.

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

No, I live overseas, work, and pay my taxes here. The USA has no idea I don't live there. I still file my taxes in the states but it's just for capital gains and doesn't include work.

People like you would be a very small percentage.
What exactly do you do? (just curious, sounds interesting. Not for any specific reason.)

 

[Apple Of Sodom]

You can't ask a guy who worked as an assembly line supervisor for 40 years to suddenly go from making $65,000 a year to $15,000 a year working at Subway. It's stupid.

I would expect that person to get two jobs (I've worked up to three) to make ends meet. I'm not saying it is ideal, but we are bleeding everyone else because people think their time is worth more. When you are unemployed and don't have a skill that is needed your time is now worth less. Think of time as a commodity. The price fluctuates. It sickens me to think an assembly line supervisor would rather live off of the system than take a job because he thinks he is worth more. Hint: if he was worth more than he would be getting paid more. His value changed.

 

[Steeplerot]

The next day she went on Twitter and Facebook and bitched about how her parents were "torturing" her because they wanted her to get a job. Said she wasn't "cut out" for work. Shes too "delicate". Some other BS.

Then she turned around the next day and complained about how she didn't have any money for the mall.

*sigh*

And people wonder why so many laugh when they say the rich are the "job creators" and "drive innovation". This is all too typical of monied families. Far more outright entitlement and arrogance then anyone on welfare I know of. That's for sure.

Good thing we got tax cuts for the rich, now this girl can afford more coke lines at 4am for her and her friends.