The Official 2020 General Election returns thread CONTAINS NSFW IMAGES IN POST 3,884

[Muse]

Biden will not carry Florida? Did I get that right?

From where/what?

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Get to drinking and kick things off. Show us some pics.

My wife has some bottles of sparkling wine chilling in case there is cause to celebrate. Otherwise I might have to shake up a slightly dirty gin martini.

Sounds like low turnout in Texas. Knew the polls that gave Biden a shot here were bullshit. Might have to drink bleach tonight tbh

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Polls starting closing around 7 if I recall - so east coast should start closing in ~45m?

Anyone have a good streaming source to watch?

 

[nakedfrog]

Mail in ballots are entirely moronic.

If you want to do things intelligently, then electronically is the way to go.

One can't get lost because it's not physical.
One can easily produce additional backups - if you have a fear of the data being compromised or missing.
One can have a LOG of EXACTLY where it originated - where it moved to - and where it currently is.
One can have FAR more authentication, authorizations, and security protocols in place.
One can be easily audited - and compared to see if there were any changes in the data from when it was originally produced.

We could have all of those things... however, our history with electronic methods of voting doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence.

 

[interchange]

Sounds like low turnout in Texas. Knew the polls that gave Biden a shot here were bullshit. Might have to drink bleach tonight tbh

Low turnout on election day is probably good for Biden. I don't think there is much Democrat apathy. The real questions are if any of Trump's base decides to skip election day or what happens with the undecided/easily influenced voters.

 

[BUTCH1]

From where/what?

No one knows anything yet, here in central FL there are a lot of trump signs but those don't vote, it depends on
how much trumps asshole self has eroded the usual senior GOP vote, we will know soon though, I think he's toast,
even in the Villages, a 175K retirement spot, Biden had a caravan of 250+ golf carts heading into the polls, Hillary
didn't have a speck of support there in '16.

 

[cytg111]

From where/what?

Just gossip from inside Bidens campaign... i cant provide a link, and thought someone here might has something to back it up.

 

[MrSquished]

Just gossip from inside Bidens campaign... i cant provide a link, and thought someone here might has something to back it up.

I saw a tweet that said they see Florida is a true toss up, but are seeing good things in GA, NC, MI, WI

But in bad news: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/03/election-ballot-delays-usps/

 

[HurleyBird]

Low turnout on election day is probably good for Biden. I don't think there is much Democrat apathy. The real questions are if any of Trump's base decides to skip election day or what happens with the undecided/easily influenced voters.

Low turnout is almost always a good sign for Republicans.

 

[cytg111]

I saw a tweet that said they see Florida is a true toss up, but are seeing good things in GA, NC, MI, WI

But in bad news: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/03/election-ballot-delays-usps/

yea saw that... and the middle finger to a federal judge too...

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Not enough people posting about their drink of choice! This must be fixed!

 

[woolfe9998]

I already said it in another thread. If Biden wins, we have a chilled bottle of Dom. If Trump wins, it's bourbon on the rocks, probably Angel's Envy. Prior to the outcome, I'll have a glass of red wine or two to keep my nerves calm.

 

[fskimospy]

Low turnout is almost always a good sign for Republicans.

Pretty sure they are talking about low Election Day turnout, which would be good news for democrats this year.

 

[Greenman]

Well you said it doesn’t work due to diversity and so I’m trying to figure out how you’re defining those things.

Again though, this misses the point. Diverse countries are less likely to pass them to begin with. Once they do they rarely go away because the populace loves it.

I never said it didn't work, I asked if there were any diverse socialist country's.

 

[HurleyBird]

Pretty sure they are talking about low Election Day turnout, which would be good news for democrats this year.

Possible. Covid does throw a spanner in the works. All the Trump people seem very enthusiastic though.

 

[fskimospy]

Possible. Covid does throw a spanner in the works. All the Trump people seem very enthusiastic though.

Are you aware of the number and composition of early votes? This will show you why low Election Day turnout is probably bad for Republicans.

 

[HurleyBird]

Are you aware of the number and composition of early votes? This will show you why low Election Day turnout is probably bad for Republicans.

I'm aware of the amount of early-voting and the lean. That adds a lot of uncertainty. I'm skeptical, however, that if the turnout looked high rather than low, that you wouldn't have also interpreted that as looking good for Dems.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Just gossip from inside Bidens campaign... i cant provide a link, and thought someone here might has something to back it up.

They were concerned about the dem vote getting out but now that the after work vote has come in they are feeling much better but still too close to call.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 6:42 PM
It looks as though Republicans will wind up with around a net +2 percent on party registration in Florida. That’s not terrible for them, and they reversed a slight Democratic disadvantage based on early and absentee voting. But it’s also not great. Based on the partisan splits in recent polls of Florida, I estimated that — because Biden is doing better among independents in most polls of the state and gets somewhat more crossover voters — the breakeven point for a Trump win was about R +3.5 in Florida. That is, if Republicans led in turnout by 3.5 points or more, Trump would be the favorite to win; otherwise Biden would be. We’ll probably end up just to the Biden side of the line. With that said, there’s a lot of uncertainty. Some polls in Florida showed Biden with big leaders among independents in Florida, while in others he was running evenly with Trump.

 

[Mai72]

Trump took Indiana: 11 points

Trump: 63.9
Biden: 33.9

 

[fskimospy]

I'm aware of the amount of early-voting and the lean. That adds a lot of uncertainty. I'm skeptical, however, that if the turnout looked high rather than low, that you wouldn't have also interpreted that as looking good for Dems.

Interesting to see how your end’s uncertainty has increased from ‘almost always’ to ‘a lot of uncertainty’ in just two posts, haha.

To me it mostly sounds like the same poseur act you always do. Maybe the Supreme Court will declare Biden illegal if he wins, right?

 

[HurleyBird]

Interesting to see how your end’s uncertainty has increased from ‘almost always’ to ‘a lot of uncertainty’ in just two posts, haha.

Those aren't actually incompatible statements

 

[fskimospy]

Those aren't actually incompatible statements

‘Almost always’ and ‘a lot of uncertainty’ are not very compatible statements either.

Regardless, low OVERALL turnout is generally bad for democrats. (That’s no longer a possibility for 2020 though) Low Election Day turnout considering the hugely disparate early voting this year? Probably not.

 

[HurleyBird]

Regardless, low OVERALL turnout is generally bad for democrats. (That’s no longer a possibility for 2020 though) Low Election Day turnout considering the hugely disparate early voting this year? Probably not.

See, we might not actually disagree here. Would you agree with the statement that high election day turnout by itself would be good thing for Democrats, and the corollary that low turnout is probably bad, but that a higher percentage of early voting mitigates low election day turnout to some extent that we will find out over the course of the next few days?

 

[gothuevos]

				NATE SILVER NOV. 3, 6:42 PM It looks as though Republicans will wind up with around a net +2 percent on party registration in Florida. That’s not terrible for them, and they reversed a slight Democratic disadvantage based on early and absentee voting. But it’s also not great. Based on the partisan splits in recent polls of Florida, I estimated that — because Biden is doing better among independents in most polls of the state and gets somewhat more crossover voters — the breakeven point for a Trump win was about R +3.5 in Florida. That is, if Republicans led in turnout by 3.5 points or more, Trump would be the favorite to win; otherwise Biden would be. We’ll probably end up just to the Biden side of the line. With that said, there’s a lot of uncertainty. Some polls in Florida showed Biden with big leaders among independents in Florida, while in others he was running evenly with Trump. Trump so far underperforming in many counties he carried....BUT Biden underperforming big time in Miami-Dade. Not sure how it will shake out...