The Microsoft Surface Tablet thread.

[dagamer34]

All of those laptops and desktops sold with Windows 7 or Windows 8 next year are running software that is incompatible with Windows RT. Sure, some developers will eventually release an ARM version of their software for the Surface, but I'll bet that most will wait and see if consumer demand is there.

I'm calling it now.... By the end of 2013, a liquidators like Woot will be unloading millions of these tablets that didn't sell at $499 for less than $189 each.

In order for the Surface to fail, Windows 8 has to fail completely, and I'd like to know what people are going to be buying instead of the hundreds of millions of computers that have been shipping with Windows for the last 20 years. Other people keep saying it, if you are a developer and see this market of 400 million devices being sold in a year that has been untapped, why wouldn't you develop for that platform? It's why Android phones, the iPad and iPhone have so many apps. It's why the TouchPad bombed. It's why the Android tablets have largely bombed.

I have yet to see anyone disprove my point with a reasonable statement. Most just say "it'll fail because it's too damn expensive." Let's be clear. Failure for Microsoft isn't the Surface selling 1 million units (even the PlayBook hit that number). Failure for Microsoft is Windows 8 not being thought of together when a company says "Let's make a tablet app" and not releasing it for Windows 8 along with the iPad version on day one. Failure is brands like Netflix, Facebook, Twitter, Comcast, NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, etc... not making apps for Windows 8.

This $189 Surface in a year is nonsense and you know it.

 

[pelov]

In order for the Surface to fail, Windows 8 has to fail completely, and I'd like to know what people are going to be buying instead of the hundreds of millions of computers that have been shipping with Windows for the last 20 years. Other people keep saying it, if you are a developer and see this market of 400 million devices being sold in a year that has been untapped, why wouldn't you develop for that platform? It's why Android phones, the iPad and iPhone have so many apps. It's why the TouchPad bombed. It's why the Android tablets have largely bombed.

I have yet to see anyone disprove my point with a reasonable statement. Most just say "it'll fail because it's too damn expensive." Let's be clear. Failure for Microsoft isn't the Surface selling 1 million units (even the PlayBook hit that number). Failure for Microsoft is Windows 8 not being thought of together when a company says "Let's make a tablet app" and not releasing it for Windows 8 along with the iPad version on day one. Failure is brands like Netflix, Facebook, Twitter, Comcast, NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, etc... not making apps for Windows 8.

This $189 Surface in a year is nonsense and you know it.

Retailers have already decreased their Q4 outlook for Win8 shipments, and that includes devices. Intel, too, has decreased their outlook from the previous year, and I don't need to remind you that last year there was no giant influx of new devices

The official Q4 forecast seems a tad less optimistic. Intel expects revenue of $13.6 billion "plus or minus $500 million" this quarter, which leaves room for a pretty decent quarter-to-quarter slump. Gross margin is expected to fall to 55-59%, as well. For reference, Intel posted revenue of $13.9 billion with a gross margin of 64.5% for the fourth quarter of 2011. That was down from $14.2 billion and 63.4% the quarter before.

These aren't welcoming signs for MS or Intel. Win8 was supposed to boost sales, not have sales slip even further.

If developers wanted to tap a giant market, they'd have done so. Currently, the Metro selection of applications numbers in the low thousands. Comparatively, iOS and Android have over 1.5million. The other issue for developers is that Win8 x86 means people can find their applications outside of Microsoft's Metro store/compatibility, thus allowing the developer to skip that 30% Microsoft cut altogether. Secondly, there's the inherent issue that developers face in x86, which is the already massive selection of applications, many of them completely free, which offer the benefits as the pay-for-it apps. The reason iOS, Android, and even OS X don't have this issue is because they live in a completely walled garden (for the most part), whereas Windows has historically been an anything-goes environment.

This expensive winRT Surface tablet is the only win8 product that makes sense to me. Unfortunately, it suffers from being priced far too high with weak specs and a poor keyboard.

 

[Dominato3r]

Every estimate that has been released is saying PC sales will jump from ~375M to ~400M in the coming year. You're examining numbewrs coming at the end of an operating system lifecycle. Vista and XP suffered similar declines in PC sales when the next operating system was set to release.

ANd like Windows 7, Windows 8 is already in the #1 software sales slot on Amazon

 

[ultimatebob]

Actually, I think that Windows 8 will be an even bigger failure than Windows Vista. Businesses hate it, and millions of people who tried the preview releases hated the new Start screen. Something tells me that Apple will take advantage of this Metro UI hatred with some clever marketing for the Mac as well.

Hell... I'll go as far is saying that places like Best Buy will have a lucrative side business selling Start menu replacements and downgrading new systems to Windows 7. Microsoft will need to rush the next release to fix 8's glaring UI flaws, and none of this bad press will help them sell tablets.

Surface RT's will have close out sale for under $189 by Christmas 2013... Quote me on it.

 

[destrekor]

Actually, I think that Windows 8 will be an even bigger failure than Windows Vista. Businesses hate it, and millions of people who tried the preview releases hated the new Start screen. Something tells me that Apple will take advantage of this Metro UI hatred with some clever marketing for the Mac as well.

Hell... I'll go as far is saying that places like Best Buy will have a lucrative side business selling Start menu replacements and downgrading new systems to Windows 7. Microsoft will need to rush the next release to fix 8's glaring UI flaws, and none of this bad press will help them sell tablets.

Surface RT's will have close out sale for under $189 by Christmas 2013... Quote me on it.

Honestly, businesses hating it shouldn't even be a factor. It's a moot point, because I cannot imagine many enterprise environments make the move to the latest OS right away.
Hell, the Army (or DoD itself) just began pushing out Windows 7 (upgrading from Vista) for the Enterprise environment. And I mean, literally just began. Last month most likely, could have begun in earnest elsewhere in the last few months though.

And a lot of businesses haven't moved past XP or Vista still; the Army tends to be slow, but is far from the slowest of the bunch.

I wouldn't expect businesses to begin looking at truly making the move to the just-releasing OS version (ignoring it being Windows 8 in particular for this thought exercise) until "Windows 9" was on it's way to Release Candidate status, if not RTM. And in that time frame, I wouldn't doubt if there was a new Windows 8 Enterprise version, or a Win8 Service Pack that brings, or enables, a more enterprise-focused, Start Shell removed version.
This is the consumer push, no doubt about it. Microsoft expects to have some time to work out the Business/Enterprise worries.

 

[Dominato3r]

Actually, I think that Windows 8 will be an even bigger failure than Windows Vista. Businesses hate it, and millions of people who tried the preview releases hated the new Start screen. Something tells me that Apple will take advantage of this Metro UI hatred with some clever marketing for the Mac as well.

Hell... I'll go as far is saying that places like Best Buy will have a lucrative side business selling Start menu replacements and downgrading new systems to Windows 7. Microsoft will need to rush the next release to fix 8's glaring UI flaws, and none of this bad press will help them sell tablets.

Surface RT's will have close out sale for under $189 by Christmas 2013... Quote me on it.

If Vista was a 'failure', from a business standpoint, Microsoft would love Windows 8 to have the same fate I would assume.

 

[dagamer34]

If Vista was a 'failure', from a business standpoint, Microsoft would love Windows 8 to have the same fate I would assume.

That Vista "failure" sold 300 million licenses...

 

[Roland00Address]

It appears it is not just the microsoft surface rt having outrageous prices for a windows rt tablet. Here is the preorder price for the asus windows rt tablet. $599

http://www.frys.com/product/7332634?...H:MAIN_RSLT_PG

This has the same processor as the surface rt, same storage, same memory in a 10" case. Pretty much it is very similar to the transformer 300 android but it costs 200 dollars more for a 550 brightness ips at 1366x768 instead of 1280x800 and it has 2gb of ram instead of 1 gb.

 

[dlock13]

It appears it is not just the microsoft surface rt having outrageous prices for a windows rt tablet. Here is the preorder price for the asus windows rt tablet. $599

http://www.frys.com/product/7332634?...H:MAIN_RSLT_PG

This has the same processor as the surface rt, same storage, same memory in a 10" case. Pretty much it is very similar to the transformer 300 android but it costs 200 dollars more for a 550 brightness ips at 1366x768 instead of 1280x800 and it has 2gb of ram instead of 1 gb.

In a way, I can see how the price is outrageous, but in another way, Microsoft is selling an operating system, device, and a full Office suite. When I say OS, I mean it's MS' bread and butter. Windows, Windows 95, 7, 8, etc... When I say device, I also mean it's bread and butter. They make gorgeous hardware that is (in my eyes) beautiful and original. The Surface undoubtedly took time to come up with, and it shows. It's new and a piece of hardware MS created instead of letting someone else sell their OS on their device which is why I say device.

So I can see how the pricing is outlandish, but I can also see how they reasoned to get it at that price. Sure they could have taken a huge hit, and IMO they should have. It doesn't stop me from wanting the Surface Pro. That is for sure.

 

[finbarqs]

okay, so pretend we are the average "stupid" consumer. You see the ipad @ $499. (iPad 3) and you put it RIGHT next to the surface RT. Same price point. Who/and what would you go for? maybe some will go for the surface, but most, will go for the iPad. It's established. Has tens of thousands of apps (iPad apps, not iphone)

Surface RT vs. Surface 8 pro are 2 completely different products. They should've just skipped the RT, and go straight for surface pro. Battery life, on the pro, is questionable though....

 

[finbarqs]

wow surface 499 is sold out lol. I guess so much that this isn't gonna sell... well I guess surface + touch cover isn't gonna sell!

 

[Nvidiaguy07]

okay, so pretend we are the average "stupid" consumer. You see the ipad @ $499. (iPad 3) and you put it RIGHT next to the surface RT. Same price point. Who/and what would you go for? maybe some will go for the surface, but most, will go for the iPad. It's established. Has tens of thousands of apps (iPad apps, not iphone)

Surface RT vs. Surface 8 pro are 2 completely different products. They should've just skipped the RT, and go straight for surface pro. Battery life, on the pro, is questionable though....

there are average stupid customers that just blindly choose apples competitors with just as much thought as people who blindly go and buy apple products. I think those people might buy this when they see that its got a full version of microsoft word on it, and can turn into a laptop (without 3rd party accessories).

I agree the price is too much for an ecosystem that is basically nowhere right now, but i have faith that microsoft will realize that they need to cater to developers. And TONS of people will be buying windows 8, regardless of how bad it is received. Im still really excited for the pro, and i think that and devices like it will be what really sells copies of windows 8 after a few years.

 

[Muyoso]

wow surface 499 is sold out lol. I guess so much that this isn't gonna sell... well I guess surface + touch cover isn't gonna sell!

People like you are the reason that products "sell out" in the first hour after pre order is offered. Items "sell out" because for some reason, this makes some people think that its popular, instead of them realizing that they are completely buying into the marketing.

Apple wouldn't "sell out" of its iPhones every year if it didn't think doing so drove up sales.

 

[Skel]

wow surface 499 is sold out lol. I guess so much that this isn't gonna sell... well I guess surface + touch cover isn't gonna sell!

When I first looked I had thought you were wrong, but it's now saying "Order now for shipment within 3 weeks" vs the "Pre-order now for delivery by 10/26". Not sure if that's just something they're doing to bump sales of the cover as well. As it's the same model just with a cover it's hard to say it's sold out when the cover version is still available.

 

[badb0y]

People like you are the reason that products "sell out" in the first hour after pre order is offered. Items "sell out" because for some reason, this makes some people think that its popular, instead of them realizing that they are completely buying into the marketing.

Apple wouldn't "sell out" of its iPhones every year if it didn't think doing so drove up sales.

Businesses don't work like that man... this is some cheap myth of bro-economics that some idiot come up with and get's repeated over and over again.

 

[BenSkywalker]

People doubting Win8's upcoming dominance need only remember the unstoppable juggernaut that was Microsoft Bob. True, Win8 doesn't look to be nearly as good as Microsoft Bob was, but the overall market is larger now and, well, MS is dumb enough to actually ship this one so it probably will sell more.

Win8 is clearly designed as a content consumption device, a poor one at that. If I want content consumption, I have alternatives that already violently roflstomp my desktop. I use my desktop when I want something more then that, Win8 is an inferior consumption platform mated with a grotesquely poor productivity platform.

It is garbage.

My post history here is extensive, I defended Vista and still do to this day- people saying that Win7 fixed Vista's problems are quite frankly delusional(Win7 is, at best, a hefty service pack to Vista). Win8 is disgustingly bad.

 

[pelov]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Cor-lvXsgx0

It is garbage.

My post history here is extensive, I defended Vista and still do to this day- people saying that Win7 fixed Vista's problems are quite frankly delusional(Win7 is, at best, a hefty service pack to Vista). Win8 is disgustingly bad.

 

[Vdubchaos]

People doubting Win8's upcoming dominance need only remember the unstoppable juggernaut that was Microsoft Bob. True, Win8 doesn't look to be nearly as good as Microsoft Bob was, but the overall market is larger now and, well, MS is dumb enough to actually ship this one so it probably will sell more.

Win8 is clearly designed as a content consumption device, a poor one at that. If I want content consumption, I have alternatives that already violently roflstomp my desktop. I use my desktop when I want something more then that, Win8 is an inferior consumption platform mated with a grotesquely poor productivity platform.

It is garbage.

My post history here is extensive, I defended Vista and still do to this day- people saying that Win7 fixed Vista's problems are quite frankly delusional(Win7 is, at best, a hefty service pack to Vista). Win8 is disgustingly bad.

Pretty much

This is just bad timing. PC hardware has not progressed for people AND business to justify upgrades.

Also I don't see much wrong with Win7 and MS has gone to the extreme end with this "phone" like lay out (even though I know it can be disabled).

 

[BenSkywalker]

even though I know it can be disabled

MS removed the ability to disable it. As of now you use a third party hack to get around it, but it sounds like MS will try and stop that with patches.

 

[Vdubchaos]

MS removed the ability to disable it. As of now you use a third party hack to get around it, but it sounds like MS will try and stop that with patches.

What a bunch of idiots......that's fine, they are shooting their own foot.

MS has PLENTY of experience limiting their client base (like apple) with the 360.......sad they are proceeding with that, ohh well.

 

[Nintendesert]

I'm a big fan of this move for Microsoft, they see the writing on the wall in a post PC world where even crappy netbooks in the future could have touch screens etc. The issue I have here is the announced price, it's $100 too high.

At $499 I'm hesitant and need more reviews and to play with it. At $399 I buy it and stuff it under the Christmas tree for the family. (Me.)

Microsoft should drop the price and simply gobble up market share on this one, they should use the mobile sector to drive Windows 8 instead of relying on the desktop market to drive a mobile sector towards WP8/Surface.

 

[blastingcap]

Given Ballmer's comments about not wanting to appear cheap, I wouldn't be surprised if MS launches at $499 and then has a bunch of promos throughout the holiday season to drive sales. That way they have their cake and eat it too: they have the obnoxiously high price to make it rival the iPad's price, yet with lower actual sale prices to drive demand. However, I think this may backfire because of the impact it will have on reviews which will not take sales prices into account but will instead compare the Surface RT at $499 to rival tablets' MSRPs.

 

[pelov]

Given Ballmer's comments about not wanting to appear cheap, I wouldn't be surprised if MS launches at $499 and then has a bunch of promos throughout the holiday season to drive sales. That way they have their cake and eat it too: they have the obnoxiously high price to make it rival the iPad's price, yet with lower actual sale prices to drive demand. However, I think this may backfire because of the impact it will have on reviews which will not take sales prices into account but will instead compare the Surface RT at $499 to rival tablets' MSRPs.

Ballmer doesn't realize that he's selling this device to an entirely different crowd. Whilst people are willing to wait in line for weeks for the new Apple product with absolutely no idea what it offers nor why they want it, MS doesn't have the same cult following. Not to disregard the technical merits of Apple devices, the new A6 is a great SoC, but their customers aren't the ones who read Anandtech reviews. Apple benefits from an aura of invincibility that stems from a strong cult, and pretty idiotic, following. MS doesn't have these people. Their list of screw-ups is lengthy and dates back decades. They have to sell the device not only through slick marketing, but with innovative product lines, features and they absolutely must compete on price. I'm not seeing any of that with the Surface RT nor Surface Pro.

 

[Mopetar]

Pretty much

This is just bad timing. PC hardware has not progressed for people AND business to justify upgrades.

Businesses won't upgrade until Windows 9. There are a lot of businesses who just transitioned to Windows 7. Why would they immediately make the move to Windows 8, especially before any service packs come out to fix the inevitable issues that will make such a move troublesome?

The shorter product cycle may be better for consumers, but most businesses would rather have something stable for as long as possible. Just look at the number of companies that were still running XP a few years ago and you get the idea.

Of course none of this really matters because those companies will just buy Windows 8 and use the license to install a copy of Windows 7 if they don't have some other arrangement in place. Either way, Microsoft still makes money.

 

[Traveler]

$499 for a tablet without keyboard cover? Too rich for me. I'd rather take Asus' Transformer instead, at least Asus's keyboard cover extends run time.

P.S. It reminds me Microsoft's Zune, now doomed.