Unless someone can effectively unite a heavily divided GOP base, I don't think the Republicans stand a chance in 2012. I would say social issues and foreign policy are at the top of a list of issues that divide the GOP. As of now, any likely nomination isn't going to be "good enough" for too many Republican voters, and they will lack enough enthusiasm. The only person, IMO, who could achieve this has already said he has zero intention of running in 2012. Besides, "the establishment" seems to be just fine with Obama.
Take your head out of the sand dude.
In July polling Obama lost to Romney, Newt and Huckabee and tied with Palin.
And read this bit that explains it all nicely.
When we first started polling a Barack Obama/Sarah Palin Presidential contest in March of 2009 her favorability was 39/50 and she trailed Obama 55-35.
Now her favorability is actually even worse at 37/52, but she's knotted with Obama at 46%.
Makes you wonder how much the Republicans would be beating Obama by right now if they actually had any candidates people liked. And it certainly confirms that the shifts we've seen over the last year are all about Obama and not a sign of faith in the GOP hopefuls.
Keep in mind that Republicans have a great history of picking candidate who can win on election day.
Bob Dole and John McCain are the ONLY Republicans since 1968 to have run for office and not won the White House. (I exclude Ford because of how he came to office and his association with Nixon)
During that same time frame the Democrats have nominated Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry.
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