The Grand Horserace. Current picks?

[Hayabusa Rider]

The next Presidential election of course.

Obama will almost certainly be the Dem candidate. How he does depends on the opposition.

For the Reps, I'm not sure who will run, but my feeling is that at if the election were held now Jan Brewer would be the one who could win. Of course there's no indication that she'll run or that AZ will be in the public mind once the race rolls around.

One thing is for sure Palin has no chance as non-partisans are unlikely to support her.


Who's out there now who has a chance?

 

[Fern]

-snip-
Who's out there now who has a chance?

Honestly, I have no idea, nor do I think anyone else does either.

I never saw Bill Clinton or George Bush as likely presidents until just before they were elected. Certainly not years before.

Pretty much the same for Obama.

IMO, it's quite likely the next President, whether 2012 or after, is not now a well known politician.

Fern

 

[werepossum]

Herman Cain.

I like Brewster. I also like Pawlenty and Romney. But honestly I have no clue who will win in 2012, or even who will compete for the Pubbies. I suspect though that if things still suck, then the American people won't take a chance on yet another neophyte, so it will probably be a governor or a long time senator who is a household name today. If things don't still suck, then I suspect the Messiah will reign once more.

 

[Fern]

-snip-
I suspect though that if things still suck, then the American people won't take a chance on yet another neophyte, so it will probably be a governor or a long time senator who is a household name today.

Good point.

If the economy still sucks I'd prefer Romney, at least he knows about biz & finances. The guy turned a profit on what started out as a fustercluck in the Salt Lake City Olympics.

Fern

 

[Moonbeam]

Since Romney is the biggest piece of shit to hit politics in ages, I am sure the Republicans will run him.

 

[werepossum]

Since Romney is the biggest piece of shit to hit politics in ages, I am sure the Republicans will run him.

Shouldn't you be off kicking orphans and stomping kittens by now? I was pretty sure you had Mormon-hating at noon . . .

 

[Red Dawn]

Shouldn't you be off kicking orphans and stomping kittens by now? I was pretty sure you had Mormon-hating at noon . . .

Him and a lot of Evangelicals who are such a big part of the Republicans base.

 

[werepossum]

Good point.

If the economy still sucks I'd prefer Romney, at least he knows about biz & finances. The guy turned a profit on what started out as a fustercluck in the Salt Lake City Olympics.

Fern

Romney was my pick in the primaries, I really like him. But I don't know that a Mormon is electable in the Republican primary system, too many Mormon-haters like Moonie. And as it stands the Democrat-voting states still have a huge effect on the Republican candidate, which makes it likely we'll get a younger version of McCain who spouts socially conservative rhetoric but votes like a progressive with a slightly sore voting finger. We may well see another cycle of splintering where the more conservative Republicans vote for some Tea Party candidate and people like me vote Libertarian.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Romney was my pick in the primaries, I really like him. But I don't know that a Mormon is electable in the Republican primary system, too many Mormon-haters like Moonie. And as it stands the Democrat-voting states still have a huge effect on the Republican candidate, which makes it likely we'll get a younger version of McCain who spouts socially conservative rhetoric but votes like a progressive with a slightly sore voting finger. We may well see another cycle of splintering where the more conservative Republicans vote for some Tea Party candidate and people like me vote Libertarian.

An ironic note from a Romney supporter.

Did you really forget he was a liberal Massachusetts Republican before he was born-again Conservative for his Presidential campaign?

 

[Kappo]

Herman Cain.

I like Brewster. I also like Pawlenty and Romney. But honestly I have no clue who will win in 2012, or even who will compete for the Pubbies. I suspect though that if things still suck, then the American people won't take a chance on yet another neophyte, so it will probably be a governor or a long time senator who is a household name today. If things don't still suck, then I suspect the Messiah will reign once more.

Still FAR to early to tell, but yeah, Herman Cain would effing rock. He has no real shot though Romney will be there for primaries, but I have a feeling how well he does depends on the economy. Brewer would be a good choice and nice to see at least run.

Palin doesn't really have a big following, just a loud one.

 

[JSt0rm]

I so so so want Sarah palin to run.

 

[nageov3t]

if you held a gun to my head and made me chose, I'd go with Romney.

but I hoping that someone like Pawlenty or Daniels breaks out.

 

[Craig234]

Honestly, I have no idea, nor do I think anyone else does either.

I never saw Bill Clinton or George Bush as likely presidents until just before they were elected. Certainly not years before.

Pretty much the same for Obama.

IMO, it's quite likely the next President, whether 2012 or after, is not now a well known politician.

Fern

Obama was thrust into serious presidential candidate as soon as he gave the 2004 convention speech. He was watched as one ever after that.

Otherwise, it varies - you're right on some (you could add John Kerry to the list of not really expected). Indeed, no non-incumbent Democrat winner since FDR seems otherwise.

Look at the list - Clinton little known, Carter little known, JFK, well, there's a story there, and that's it for non-incumbent Democrats after FDR.

The Republicans on the other hand seem to be more predictable in preferring long-time figures. No on was surprised by McCain, Dole, Reagan, Nixon, Goldwater.

George Bush Jr. was only a surprise in how such an obviously unqualified, unpresidential figure could have a shot, but not that the Bush family would try if they could.

George Bush was the product of canny right-wing noise machine promotion, as is Sarah Palin to a lesser extent, and the Tea Party.

 

[lothar]

Mitch Daniels.

 

[Craig234]

The right will not put up anyone nearly decent, and will again force a choice between the Democrat and a radical right-wing disaster.

The right has put up less bad people than the current crop, but the last time they put up someone 'decent', apart from possibly the not terribly harmful Ford, except perhaps to Justice in American for pardoning the criminal Nixon and the over $200,000 East Timorans killed with US weapons Ford lied about allowing Indonesia to use to kill them, was probably Eisenhower. Before that, Teddy Roosevelt and Lincoln, probably.

 

[Moonbeam]

An ironic note from a Romney supporter.

Did you really forget he was a liberal Massachusetts Republican before he was born-again Conservative for his Presidential campaign?

Why Republican's can't recognize glad-handing two faced pieces of shit is beyond me, but they can't. Actually, they can't because they themselves lack a center. I would take Palin over Romney any day of the week because she's at least completely real. Romney oozes garbage. It is amusing, I guess, that Romney the Mormon is a problem for Republicans. You can be a phony empty suit and Be Republican but not from a phony Christian sect. Those Mormons are stealing souls and money from the funders.

 

[LunarRay]

I've not seen the latest 'negatives' on Obama (by state) but expect him to have a hard time in many of the swing states. Not sure yet which few will top the list in 2012 but expect a change from 2008.
That said, it appears the word 'winable' by swing state criteria will be the selection process... usually is in some form or another...
Palin's negatives are so high that Moonbeam stands a better chance of getting the nomination than she does.

My pick for the Republicans.... Lindsey Graham of So. Carolina

I think I'd vote for him... well... I know I would... I rather like that guy's approach to most everything... The fact that he adopted his siblings and spent time (still does) in the Airforce holds him head and shoulders above Obama.... way above in the states that matter.... In my opinion...

 

[CallMeJoe]

...My pick for the Republicans.... Lindsey Graham of So. Carolina...

You have quite the sense of humor! In the Tea Party era, Senator Graham will be lucky to be renominated to the Senate.

Spidey07 should be along shortly to chastise you for daring to post favorably about "Senator Grahamnesty". Watch for one of his "We the People" pronouncements; he and Mr. Jingles are getting rather feisty these days!

 

[LunarRay]

You have quite the sense of humor! In the Tea Party era, Senator Graham will be lucky to be renominated to the Senate.

Spidey07 should be along shortly to chastise you for daring to post favorably about "Senator Grahamnesty". Watch for one of his "We the People" pronouncements; he and Mr. Jingles are getting rather feisty these days!

Well.... actually :sneaky: or perhaps ()

If I used that logic Obama would loose to What's her face... Clinton...

My political focus is and always has been on the Swing States... Assuming he can secure the typically Republican ones... the battle is going to be won or lost there. His vote for the latest Supreme Court nominee is seen by me as his first overt step into the race. I don't see his negatives among the vast majority of Republicans as being very high at all... and See him viewed by the Democrats as tolerable... the Independents should see him as reasonable. My wife has no data yet regarding this so... I could be way off..
But that is me... that is what I think regardless of how out of step that may be...

 

[CallMeJoe]

Well.... actually :sneaky: or perhaps ()
If I used that logic Obama would loose to What's her face... Clinton...
My political focus is and always has been on the Swing States... Assuming he can secure the typically Republican ones... the battle is going to be won or lost there. His vote for the latest Supreme Court nominee is seen by me as his first overt step into the race. I don't see his negatives among the vast majority of Republicans as being very high at all... and See him viewed by the Democrats as tolerable... the Independents should see him as reasonable. My wife has no data yet regarding this so... I could be way off..
But that is me... that is what I think regardless of how out of step that may be...

If Senator Clinton's campaign had not so badly managed the caucus states, she would be President Clinton today.

IMHO, with some distance from the Bush administration debacle a moderate Republican could easily win the general election. Also IMHO, no moderate Republican stands a chance of winning his party's nomination in the near future. Allow the Tea Party favorites some time to reveal their true natures and the Republicans may return to some semblance of sanity.

 

[shiner]

Newt

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Newt

The little fellow above will almost certainly be a better choice than either party will field.

 

[LunarRay]

If Senator Clinton's campaign had not so badly managed the caucus states, she would be President Clinton today.

IMHO, with some distance from the Bush administration debacle a moderate Republican could easily win the general election. Also IMHO, no moderate Republican stands a chance of winning his party's nomination in the near future. Allow the Tea Party favorites some time to reveal their true natures and the Republicans may return to some semblance of sanity.

Tea Party can boast they have about 18 percent of the American vote... and they do seem to be effective and the agenda they espouse about lower taxes and constitutionality of Federal Departments and Laws and all that sits well within the Republican thinking process.. it may grow...
But they are the party of exclusion... almost all are white. Almost all would rather save money then help the poor and all those other Republican virtues... Ron Paul included.
I think they like Perot can be an upsetting factor and is why I can't figure out what states are going to be important and which are safe and typically for the Right.

I still like Graham above any from the left or right... so that is one vote he'd get.

 

[UberNeuman]

Why Republican's can't recognize glad-handing two faced pieces of shit is beyond me, but they can't.

Moon, because you know they can't... because you give them more credit than they deserve....

They are seeing the beginning of their end..

 

[Lemon law]

Mitch Daniels.

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Lothar, I am from Indiana and that Mitch gag yeech yuck hell no is fighting fighting words with me. Mitch Daniels is a turd in a word and a big business whore and a tool, that has sold off State Assets cheap to benefit only his cronies.

But in terms of this larger thread question, who will be the respective Dimocratic and republirat candidates for POTUS questions in 2012, its way way too early to tell yet. No one in their right mind should touch that question with a 10 foot poll.

But I still have not gotten over laughing at Romney in 2008. Was there ever anyone that was more clueless than old Mitt in 2008?

Romney came into the election of 2008 with a pretty good record as a moderate governor of a blue State, a record he could have run on and likely won the GOP nomination with, but no, the damn fool tried to be the incredible plastic man, by running as a born again more right wing than thou religious right with all his might. Romney's immaculate conversion to the NRA was pure comedy gold. And then ole Mitt with all his money could only watch the religious right vote for the genuine article in Huckabee who had no money.

I am already getting my lawnchairs, the popcorn, all the beer and barf bags ready for 2012, as I watch all those politicians guess wrong on where the American electorate will be on 11/2010. Will someone be even more clueless than Mitt in 2012? Memo to self, get more beer, popcorn, and barf bags laid aside.

But other question, will I have enough barf bags left after 11/2010?