The explanation for those weird Siberian craters isn't comforting

[xBiffx]

I am guessing you didn't bother to read my previous post?

I did. Solar isn't going to be the fix-it-all approach, not even in 10 years. So what do you suppose we do in the meantime anyways. What happens when the number of electric cars on the road exceeds our ability to power them? Unintended consequences are a real bitch.

 

[xBiffx]

Any realistic switchover would take a decade at least from when such cars become economical to purchase. More than enough time to build sufficient additional generation capacity.

I don't share in your optimism on our ability to increase generation capacity in the next decade. Too much red tape for starters. Also, our current dilapidated power grid should be proof that we've got a hell of a long way to go regarding electricity in this country.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

F it folks. Mankind is too stupid to avoid it's eventual demise at their own hands. Enjoy your gas guzzlers and what not because if you're reading this you'll likely never see the full disaster heading our way. Hopefully the temps stay somewhat reasonable in my lifetime as I enjoy things like freshwater and food.

 

[K1052]

The .gov should give like $500 million dollars to some people to start a solar panel manufacturing company. With that kind of head start, what could possibly go wrong?

IIRC, the Chinese are dumping solar panels on the market, and dumping in this context means selling them below cost and market value with the intention of burying your foreign competition and preventing new competition from entering the market.

I am fairly certain, but not absolutely positive, that the practice of dumping products is illegal per most trade agreements and/or the WTO. Again IIRC one of the Japanese auto manufacturers was charged with this when the market for their cars was emerging here in the U.S..

Alternative energy just doesn't seem ready for prime time usage here in the U.S.. What I hope will happen is the maturation of alternative energy sources will make them simply financially attractive in the next 15-30 years, during which time we finally upgrade our cobbled together and outdated grid in preparation for these new energy sources.

The US has put tariffs on Chinese panels to combat dumping. PV and CSP are more than sufficiently mature for utility scale plants, there are quite a few of them being built now.

Musk knows the score. If he can get solar panel production cost down further/efficiency up couple percent (or both) coupled with cost effective local battery storage it is game over for fossil energy and traditional utilities. This is something that is fully achievable in the next few years.

 

[Jaskalas]

I don't share in your optimism on our ability to increase generation capacity in the next decade. Too much red tape for starters. Also, our current dilapidated power grid should be proof that we've got a hell of a long way to go regarding electricity in this country.

Sounds like an electricity project is needed, beyond the scope of any scientific achievement mankind has had before. Example, it would do us good to finally use thorium reactors. It's simply not happening, not without a directed push to do so.

Yet, it'd probably take 20-30 years to realize such plans if we started today.

 

[xBiffx]

Sounds like an electricity project is needed, beyond the scope of any scientific achievement mankind has had before. Example, it would do us good to finally use thorium reactors. It's simply not happening, not without a directed push to do so.

Yet, it'd probably take 20-30 years to realize such plans if we started today.

I agree, we need a "space race" decade for electricity technology/improvements. But its not going to happen in today's political climate and economic environment.

 

[K1052]

I don't share in your optimism on our ability to increase generation capacity in the next decade. Too much red tape for starters. Also, our current dilapidated power grid should be proof that we've got a hell of a long way to go regarding electricity in this country.

US electricity consumption is nearly flat anymore. There hasn't been much need to build new capacity unless utilities are re-balancing their generation mix to use more renewables (many, if not most are) or to switch out from using coal which has been killed off by increasing regulation and cheap NG.

By the time there are cheap electric cars there will also definitely be viable local storage options to pair with rooftop PV systems since both will rely on cost effective storage. I don't really share your concerns about this.

 

[sm625]

What a bunch of crap. You go and dig any 100+ foot deep hole in the ground and you're going to end up with 10% methane in the air down there. Methane is relatively heavy, where else is it supposed to go?

 

[FerrelGeek]

China is already on board.

Think you need to go back and take a look at that chart, son.

 

[1prophet]

And where is the electricity going to come from? You're ignoring the root cause of the proposed problem.

If everyone went out and replaced their cars with electrics today, the world would be in a real shit storm.

It can't and won't happen like that, it will take a few decades for such a turnover worldwide.

 

[xBiffx]

US electricity consumption is nearly flat anymore. There hasn't been much need to build new capacity unless utilities are re-balancing their generation mix to use more renewables (many, if not most are) or to switch out from using coal which has been killed off by increasing regulation and cheap NG.

Meaningless when the talk is about increasing the number of electric cars on the road and thereby increasing the need for electricity.

By the time there are cheap electric cars there will also definitely be viable local storage options to pair with rooftop PV systems since both will rely on cost effective storage.

I think the key word is viable. Sure, I think the technology will exist by then, but will it be used. Heck, we have the technology to produce megawatts of electricity every year but we don't. Basically, just because something is possible or available doesn't mean its going to happen. That's the part that keeps me on the glass is half empty side.

 

[davmat787]

The US has put tariffs on Chinese panels to combat dumping. PV and CSP are more than sufficiently mature for utility scale plants, there are quite a few of them being built now.

Musk knows the score. If he can get solar panel production cost down further/efficiency up couple percent (or both) coupled with cost effective local battery storage it is game over for fossil energy and traditional utilities. This is something that is fully achievable in the next few years.

Cost effective local battery storage is fully achievable in the next few years? Admittedly I know next to nothing on the battery industry, but I find that very hard to believe. Perhaps I am over estimating the capacity of such a battery, as I assume you mean one capable of storing enough electricity to power a home at least over night, realistically 48-72 hours would be required.

And don't forget they will have to also charge your electric vehicles, as that is mainly performed overnight for several reasons from what I understand.

And that many batteries of that capacity would be an environmental nightmare I assume, probably not even possible to build the manufacturing this would require due to current environmental protection laws ironically.

Again I fully admit my ignorance on this subject, if you have a pointer to a primer on what you are referring the I will happily read it. And I hope I am wrong as well, current battery technology seems to be a constant roadblock to many environmentally friendly solutions.

 

[K1052]

Meaningless when the talk is about increasing the number of electric cars on the road and thereby increasing the need for electricity.



I think the key word is viable. Sure, I think the technology will exist by then, but will it be used. Heck, we have the technology to produce megawatts of electricity every year but we don't. Basically, just because something is possible or available doesn't mean its going to happen. That's the part that keeps me on the glass is half empty side.

New generation is brought online all the time, mostly to replace older less efficient facilities. There is no major hindrance to dramatically increasing overall capacity in the light of new demand, should it be required.

Once battery storage is at a low enough cost to enable a cheap electric car with decent range to be built everyone with PV on their roof will be getting local storage since they rely on the same basic technology. Heck the Europeans are already putting it in their homes. The grid would not collapse under the strain of electric transportation if more and more residential and commercial users dramatically slashed their usages.

 

[dank69]

Think you need to go back and take a look at that chart, son.

China has recently acknowledged that they cannot go on polluting their environment the way they have, dad.

 

[K1052]

Cost effective local battery storage is fully achievable in the next few years? Admittedly I know next to nothing on the battery industry, but I find that very hard to believe. Perhaps I am over estimating the capacity of such a battery, as I assume you mean one capable of storing enough electricity to power a home at least over night, realistically 48-72 hours would be required.

And don't forget they will have to also charge your electric vehicles, as that is mainly performed overnight for several reasons from what I understand.

And that many batteries of that capacity would be an environmental nightmare I assume, probably not even possible to build the manufacturing this would require due to current environmental protection laws ironically.

Again I fully admit my ignorance on this subject, if you have a pointer to a primer on what you are referring the I will happily read it. And I hope I am wrong as well, current battery technology seems to be a constant roadblock to many environmentally friendly solutions.

Yes, consensus seems to be that before 2020 it will be cost effective. Why would you need 48-72 hours of storage if you have rooftop PV? Though an electric car could function as additional storage when plugged into your home if you're really worried about it.

Vehicle charging would not have to necessarily take place during the evening as long as sufficient charging infrastructure is available. If you charge at work or when the vehicle is parked other places during the day then the draw at home should be relatively modest. This would also sync with peak solar production times.

 

[networkman]

Unless you get China, India, and the rest of the developing countries in Asia on board, all you'll be doing is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

This.

 

[networkman]

Why would you need 48-72 hours of storage if you have rooftop PV? Though an electric car could function as additional storage when plugged into your home if you're really worried about it.

I don't know a whole lot about Chicago, but in the U.S. we have blizzards, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes and floods plus the very real potential for biological epidemics and terrorist attacks, so have a couple days storage of backup power seems quite reasonable to me!

 

[Paul98]

If you actually look for solutions and where the technology is at today, the speed things are changing and how long it will take to implement you can see what is coming. It looks great.

 

[K1052]

I don't know a whole lot about Chicago, but in the U.S. we have blizzards, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes and floods plus the very real potential for biological epidemics and terrorist attacks, so have a couple days storage of backup power seems quite reasonable to me!

It might be desirable but by no means required, just like now.

 

[BUnit1701]

Yes, consensus seems to be that before 2020 it will be cost effective. Why would you need 48-72 hours of storage if you have rooftop PV? Though an electric car could function as additional storage when plugged into your home if you're really worried about it.

...

You may or not be aware of this daily phenomenon called 'night'. During 'night', there is no sunlight to power your PV cells. We also have a phenomenon floating through the sky called 'clouds'.

 

[theeedude]

The .gov should give like $500 million dollars to some people to start a solar panel manufacturing company. With that kind of head start, what could possibly go wrong?

IIRC, the Chinese are dumping solar panels on the market, and dumping in this context means selling them below cost and market value with the intention of burying your foreign competition and preventing new competition from entering the market.

I am fairly certain, but not absolutely positive, that the practice of dumping products is illegal per most trade agreements and/or the WTO. Again IIRC one of the Japanese auto manufacturers was charged with this when the market for their cars was emerging here in the U.S..

Alternative energy just doesn't seem ready for prime time usage here in the U.S.. What I hope will happen is the maturation of alternative energy sources will make them simply financially attractive in the next 15-30 years, during which time we finally upgrade our cobbled together and outdated grid in preparation for these new energy sources.

Oh, OK, you convinced me, I'd rather risk humanity die in a mass extinction event than risk another Solyndra.

 

[alzan]

Meaningless when the talk is about increasing the number of electric cars on the road and thereby increasing the need for electricity.



I think the key word is viable. Sure, I think the technology will exist by then, but will it be used. Heck, we have the technology to produce megawatts of electricity every year but we don't. Basically, just because something is possible or available doesn't mean its going to happen. That's the part that keeps me on the glass is half empty side.

Hybrid engines will help fill the gap until local energy storage and more efficient PV become economical.

You may or not be aware of this daily phenomenon called 'night'. During 'night', there is no sunlight to power your PV cells. We also have a phenomenon floating through the sky called 'clouds'.

Temporary energy storage, aka batteries, will provide some power during the night.

Actually PV can generate some electricity from cloudy skies, obviously not as much as from a cloudless sky. As overall PV technology improves so will it's ability to generate electricity from cloudy skies.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Oh, OK, you convinced me, I'd rather risk humanity die in a mass extinction event than risk another Solyndra.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

 

[spacejamz]

China has recently acknowledged that they cannot go on polluting their environment the way they have, dad.

Acknowledged??? Did they do anything else??? Like set target dates, budgets, etc???

Do you honestly think those factories are going to pay god knows how much to become environmentally friendly???

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

One Word: Nuclear