The economy is STILL growing!!!!!!!!!! What happened to the recession???

[ProfJohn]

Let's see...

1. This WAS written in August long before the Wall Street melt down.

2. My main point, as shown in the sub title, was to refute the 'worst slow down in history' BS that we are still being force feed every day.

If you remember, at the time everyone talked about how we were going into the Great Depression Part 2 and yet the economy was not in THAT bad of shape. Yes things were slowing down, but unemployment was semi-stable and GDP was still growing. (GDP grew slightly for the year)

Even today after months and months of layoffs unemployment is only at 1983 levels. We are not even CLOSE to depression levels.

chart
Check out this chart and look at unemployment rates.
In 1982-83 it hit 9.7% (2 points higher than today)
Hell, from 1975 to 1986 unemployment was ABOVE 7% every year but two. That is 10 out of 12 years with HIGHER unemployment than we have now. Yet the country some how survived and was NOT in a depression at this time.

As for economic growth:
The economy has shrunk 3 of the last 5 quarters.
Another chart
Now go back to the 1980-82 period and you will see negative growth in 6 out or 10 quarters, and that was REAL negative growth 7% in one quarter and 6% in another.

Of course it is not over yet and we will most likely see another bad quarter or two, but at this point our recession looks more like the 1980-82 recession than the great depression.

 

[NeoV]

you should really stop talking about matters of economic principles, you are well out of your league, and just digging your hole deeper

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: KB

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
This thread makes me laugh every time I see the title.

Me too.

Anyone seen PJ? Did he apologize for this thread yet?

C'mon people, this is stupid.

This thread was created in August '08, at that time GDP was increasing:

The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the three months ended in June. That's up from a revised 0.9% growth rate in the first quarter.

He was right about his 3rd and 4th quarter predictions too. His 2009 prediction remains to be seen.

Fern

:thumbsup:

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: NeoV
you should really stop talking about matters of economic principles, you are well out of your league, and just digging your hole deeper

Really? Refute what I said then.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Let's see...

1. This WAS written in August long before the Wall Street melt down.

We tell you the market is in trouble, and you ignore it until it happens. We tell you unemployment is going to go double digits in 2009 but you point to the current numbers and ignore that it?s going to happen.

From the posts on this thread, it appears that you would have no idea how to process information.

 

[SickBeast]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: NeoV
you should really stop talking about matters of economic principles, you are well out of your league, and just digging your hole deeper

Really? Refute what I said then.

Actual history and current events have refuted what you said. The economy tanked after you said it was growing. I'm surprised you have the audacity to continue posting in this thread, still trying to prove yourself to be correct when that is not even possible.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Let's see...

1. This WAS written in August long before the Wall Street melt down.

We tell you the market is in trouble, and you ignore it until it happens. We tell you unemployment is going to go double digits in 2009 but you point to the current numbers and ignore that it?s going to happen.

From the posts on this thread, it appears that you would have no idea how to process information.

I should get a job in congress huh?

 

[First]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: NeoV
you should really stop talking about matters of economic principles, you are well out of your league, and just digging your hole deeper

Really? Refute what I said then.

"The panic of 2008??? What the hell is wrong with these idiots. The economy is a mild slow down right now not even a full blown recession". - ProfJohn July 2008

ROFL.

 

[KK]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Let's see...

1. This WAS written in August long before the Wall Street melt down.

We tell you the market is in trouble, and you ignore it until it happens. We tell you unemployment is going to go double digits in 2009 but you point to the current numbers and ignore that it?s going to happen.

From the posts on this thread, it appears that you would have no idea how to process information.

I guess your 401k, if you even have one, made money in 2008 since you knew the crash was coming.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: NeoV
you should really stop talking about matters of economic principles, you are well out of your league, and just digging your hole deeper

Really? Refute what I said then.

"The panic of 2008??? What the hell is wrong with these idiots. The economy is a mild slow down right now not even a full blown recession". - ProfJohn July 2008

ROFL.

Read the whole post and tell me where I was wrong.

The panic of 2008???


What the hell is wrong with these idiots. The economy is a mild slow down right now not even a full blown recession.

The 2000/2001 had three non-consecutive quarters with negative economic growth. We have yet to have one quarter of economic growth.

And the 1981-82 recession makes what we are going throw now look like a mild set back. In December of 1982 unemployment hit 10.8% more than double our current rate. And at the same time we had the S&L crisis and a bank crisis during which the 7th largest bank in the country failed (though it didn't fail until 1984)

Instead of referring to the death of Reaganomics we should be talking about the death of history since no one seems to remember what a real recession is like.

Think about it... 6 months AFTER that post an unemployment is STILL lower than the 1982 recession.

When unemployment hits 9% and stays there for a WHOLE YEAR then talk to me about how bad things are.

 

[First]

^ By June 08 70% of economists thought the U.S. was either headed into a recession or already in one. Smart people were saying it was already a recession because unemployment numbers lagged, leading indicators like tech (traditionally a leading indicator) and consumer confidence indices were dropping like a rock, with mortgage defaults and CDS loaming large (WELL KNOWN by 2007). The severity of the recession was mis-calculated, but it was undoubtedly a recession despite GDP numbers (which you have been told do not determine recessions by themselves, and the NBER agrees), you were told it was a recession in the thread, and eventually the official numbers came out showing we've been in recession since 12/07.

You were proven wrong. Get over it.

 

[zephyrprime]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Let's see...

1. This WAS written in August long before the Wall Street melt down.

2. My main point, as shown in the sub title, was to refute the 'worst slow down in history' BS that we are still being force feed every day.

If you remember, at the time everyone talked about how we were going into the Great Depression Part 2 and yet the economy was not in THAT bad of shape. Yes things were slowing down, but unemployment was semi-stable and GDP was still growing. (GDP grew slightly for the year)

Even today after months and months of layoffs unemployment is only at 1983 levels. We are not even CLOSE to depression levels.

They were prescient. You had your head buried in the sand. In that regard, nothing has changed. Of course, that is no surprise since you are one of the many pathological flamers on the internet that merely argue to get a rise out of people because you don't feel adequate by yourself.

Also, I got news for you. Unemployment during the great depression didn't reach "great depression" levels in the first year either.

What we are going through IS another great depression. Things like the great depression happen every 90 years or so. It's an inevitable period credit destruction that is necessary for growth to eventually continue. Of course, if we didn't have the ridiculous monetary system that we have, this wouldn't be necessary.

 

[BarneyFife]

LOL@PJ for continuing to prove that he's clueless

 

[feralkid]

Originally posted by: BarneyFife
LOL@PJ for continuing to prove that he's clueless

New year, new shovel.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Let's see...

1. This WAS written in August long before the Wall Street melt down.

2. My main point, as shown in the sub title, was to refute the 'worst slow down in history' BS that we are still being force feed every day.

If you remember, at the time everyone talked about how we were going into the Great Depression Part 2 and yet the economy was not in THAT bad of shape. Yes things were slowing down, but unemployment was semi-stable and GDP was still growing. (GDP grew slightly for the year)

Even today after months and months of layoffs unemployment is only at 1983 levels. We are not even CLOSE to depression levels.

They were prescient. You had your head buried in the sand. In that regard, nothing has changed. Of course, that is no surprise since you are one of the many pathological flamers on the internet that merely argue to get a rise out of people because you don't feel adequate by yourself.

Also, I got news for you. Unemployment during the great depression didn't reach "great depression" levels in the first year either.

What we are going through IS another great depression. Things like the great depression happen every 90 years or so. It's an inevitable period credit destruction that is necessary for growth to eventually continue. Of course, if we didn't have the ridiculous monetary system that we have, this wouldn't be necessary.

Call me when unemployment his 23.6%

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Call me when unemployment his 23.6%

Because "depression" is defined as 23.6% unemployment. Not.

You posted in the We are very likely in another depression thread. Why don't you actually read its OP instead of continuing your Black Knight posturing here. It's just a flesh wound. 'Tis but a scratch.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: zephyrprime

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Let's see...

1. This WAS written in August long before the Wall Street melt down.

2. My main point, as shown in the sub title, was to refute the 'worst slow down in history' BS that we are still being force feed every day.

If you remember, at the time everyone talked about how we were going into the Great Depression Part 2 and yet the economy was not in THAT bad of shape. Yes things were slowing down, but unemployment was semi-stable and GDP was still growing. (GDP grew slightly for the year)

Even today after months and months of layoffs unemployment is only at 1983 levels. We are not even CLOSE to depression levels.

They were prescient. You had your head buried in the sand. In that regard, nothing has changed. Of course, that is no surprise since you are one of the many pathological flamers on the internet that merely argue to get a rise out of people because you don't feel adequate by yourself.

Also, I got news for you. Unemployment during the great depression didn't reach "great depression" levels in the first year either.

What we are going through IS another great depression. Things like the great depression happen every 90 years or so. It's an inevitable period credit destruction that is necessary for growth to eventually continue. Of course, if we didn't have the ridiculous monetary system that we have, this wouldn't be necessary.

Call me when unemployment his 23.6%

I'm kind of surprised you're still posting in this thread.

 

[imported_gardener]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: jman19
-snip-
Oh please, PJ was talking about how this is a mental recession... not even close. Anyone who reads P&N knows PJ just made this thread to try and blow some sunshine up our collective ass.

Mental recession?

I think to some extent it is.

Consumer confidence gets driven down - people stop buying and start saving - companies sell fewer products - people get laid off - home mortgage defaults - banks stop lending etc.

Vicious circle. (Yeah, the housing bubble was gonna burst and cause some pain, but this 'hunker down' mentality is killing us now)

IMO, we're not gonna get out of this mess until people's confidence returns.

Fern

Fern, putting the cart before the horse.

Consumer confidence is down because the US economy is in ruins, Fern.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: NeoV
you should really stop talking about matters of economic principles, you are well out of your league, and just digging your hole deeper

Really? Refute what I said then.

"The panic of 2008??? What the hell is wrong with these idiots. The economy is a mild slow down right now not even a full blown recession". - ProfJohn July 2008

ROFL.

Read the whole post and tell me where I was wrong.

The panic of 2008???


What the hell is wrong with these idiots. The economy is a mild slow down right now not even a full blown recession.

The 2000/2001 had three non-consecutive quarters with negative economic growth. We have yet to have one quarter of economic growth.

And the 1981-82 recession makes what we are going throw now look like a mild set back. In December of 1982 unemployment hit 10.8% more than double our current rate. And at the same time we had the S&L crisis and a bank crisis during which the 7th largest bank in the country failed (though it didn't fail until 1984)

Instead of referring to the death of Reaganomics we should be talking about the death of history since no one seems to remember what a real recession is like.

Think about it... 6 months AFTER that post an unemployment is STILL lower than the 1982 recession.

When unemployment hits 9% and stays there for a WHOLE YEAR then talk to me about how bad things are.

You know this is one of the few times where I hope you are right

 

[her209]

ROFL

 

[Phokus]

Don't worry guys, non-profjohn will admit the recession is bad enough in a few months and blame it all on Obama when his boy Bush was behind this mess.

 

[daniel49]

Originally posted by: Phokus
Don't worry guys, non-profjohn will admit the recession is bad enough in a few months and blame it all on Obama when his boy Bush was behind this mess.

May have started on Bush's watch. Obama is doing a hellofa job keeping the ball rolling though.

 

[First]

Bush wasn't the cause of this last recessions, a POTUS doesn't have that degree of influence over the markets. And Bush had no credibility anyway. I agree that Obama hasn't been clear enough about the direction he wants to take. He needs to take a stand on nationalization rumors and make sure the Fed makes a firm commitment to a new age monetary policy ASAP.

 

[Zebo]

This thread is hilarious. John is still in partial denial claiming .."lay off meanies - no sign when I posted this" while tons of threads were floating at the time hence his jackass title and tons of rebuttal on first few pages on the same date in this thread.

 

[StageLeft]

This thread is indeed hilarious, and the short-sighted bull-sycophants use as their prime metric current unemployment, grossly myopic in their inability to see that it's going to continue to get very much worse and worse and worse. The only way out of that is if there is what would amount to a national decree to stop laying people off and instead give them less work days or lowered salaries so that we can all take big pay cuts. The economic demand is not there and the jobs, or at least the hours or pay, are going out the window. This is real and not an illusion of negativity.