They learned from Vista.
First you have to put out the release with the new stuff that people will hate. Then you re-release it with the same stuff but some cosmetic differences and everyone will be so happy its not the hated OS so they don't notice by then that you didn't really undo the thing that pissed everyone off.
Except that so far, they have fixed what was really wrong. How many UAC prompts do you need to install updates in Windows 7? How about Vista? Exactly--it's way less annoying to use, and will actually stay up to date. OTOH, they
still haven't learned to get SPs to install (I have yet to see a tech-illiterate's computer with a newer service pack than it came with).
XP could go years w/o instability, unlike 95, 95b, 98, 98SE, or ME. 7, FI, doesn't require 2-3 UAC prompts just to get Windows updates (despite all the apologists, I've yet to see a Vista install with that crap gone).
MS hasn't really learned anything, despite reacting, and are acting like a large corporation with enough inertia that they don't feel they should have to care about the user experience, because people
need Windows.
They don't have flops for any strategic purpose. The managers that get to make them just happen to be the guys with big ideas, big egos, and plenty of blame-passing skills. But, that only works well for products when they are also visionaries, which most corporate cultures try to weed out, rather than nurture. They are big enough that they don't see short-term risk, and thus can't make quality efforts towards long-term goals that actually make for truly better products.