The anti-crypto thread

[BFG10K]

Great news, crypto's collapsing across the board: https://www.techpowerup.com/282380/...ions-in-less-than-24-hours-did-the-bubble-pop

Also China's banned crypto, though individuals can still have it: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-financial-payment-bodies-barred-122712260.html

The sooner this cancerous parasite is wiped out, the better.

 

[simas]

Better keep buying up those I Bonds!

I mean, most common stocks essentially have very little intrinsic value and are only worth what other people want to pay for them. At this point they are so removed from reality it's nuts. Get listed and the index funds sweep you up.

Seriously, Wall Street is a huge stack of cards. Watch all the stocks implode if things get gnarly, there won't be a safe place. 🤷‍♂️

The whole point now is to get far enough ahead that when the crash comes you'll have made enough to cover. If you bought GBTC, for example, at $4-$10 you're still feeling OK.

And you can flip out now without income taxes in a tax advantaged account into some other asset class. Same is true for the TSLA you bought or whatever other speculative bets you made. No one needs to hold until the ground and there are some massive whales out there that are going to prop it up before zero because they are all in.

It's all a horse race.

The 'value' behind the stock is discounted (current vs future value of money) expected/estimated revenue steam. i.e. business like Microsoft that collects its 75% margin on Azure , its Office 365 payments, its GamePass revenue streams ($15 per user per month per however many tens of million people they signed up), its licensing fees, etc .This is behind the value of the stock. Unless the company disappears (fraud, massive risks not handled correctly ,etc) - the fluctuations of the stock are less relevant.

The I-Bonds , the 'value' behind it is the taxing power of US Government . Good luck arguing with that .

The 'value' behind some e-coin (dogecoin, catecoin, makeupsomenameecoin, ) ? Who knows. What taxing authority is supporting it? What revenue stream? How stable is that revenue stream?

There are also MASSIVE regulatory compliance requirements for a listed stock/corporation , including what and how goes into fillings, laws like SOX in place to make relevant people personally responsible for signing financial results, etc.
Do fads happen? Yes, of cause - however generally, the value tracks revenue streams and adjusts as every cycle shown.

Comparing heavily regulated stock market to totally unregulated 'crypto' , I am not sure it is fair at all to crypto.. just further proves how much of bad idea it is in terms of investment..
may be the block chain itself would be useful for something in the future. the current first iteration of crypto is totally not.. unless you ran ransomware business or deal with illegal drugs..

 

[blckgrffn]

The 'value' behind the stock is discounted (current vs future value of money) expected/estimated revenue steam. i.e. business like Microsoft that collects its 75% margin on Azure , its Office 365 payments, its GamePass revenue streams ($15 per user per month per however many tens of million people they signed up), its licensing fees, etc .This is behind the value of the stock. Unless the company disappears (fraud, massive risks not handled correctly ,etc) - the fluctuations of the stock are less relevant.

The I-Bonds , the 'value' behind it is the taxing power of US Government . Good luck arguing with that .

The 'value' behind some e-coin (dogecoin, catecoin, makeupsomenameecoin, ) ? Who knows. What taxing authority is supporting it? What revenue stream? How stable is that revenue stream?

There are also MASSIVE regulatory compliance requirements for a listed stock/corporation , including what and how goes into fillings, laws like SOX in place to make relevant people personally responsible for signing financial results, etc.
Do fads happen? Yes, of cause - however generally, the value tracks revenue streams and adjusts as every cycle shown.

Comparing heavily regulated stock market to totally unregulated 'crypto' , I am not sure it is fair at all to crypto.. just further proves how much of bad idea it is in terms of investment..
may be the block chain itself would be useful for something in the future. the current first iteration of crypto is totally not.. unless you ran ransomware business or deal with illegal drugs..

Holding I Bonds is a "great" way to get hold money with a negative return relative to real inflation. I hold some. Sounds like you probably do too.

I hear what you are saying on "regulation in reporting", but I'll just stand fast that the value of stocks on the market are not based on merit.

They are hugely speculative - we've gone past betting on which horse will win the race to betting on which horse will be bet on (the old analogy of judging bull at the fair comes to mind, in which we no longer reward the best bull but are busy gambling on which bull the public thinks is most likely to win). Holding most stocks doesn't pay anything in dividends and you are in a HODL hoping that if you hold it for years it will for some reason be worth more then than now.

This greed cycle you described is universal to the entire game, my stance is if you are busy plowing money into wall street (because you have to if you are a normal person pursuing non-negative returns, all other investment vehicles are vastly inferior in performance over the last decade) then you are being a willing part of the system.

 

[simas]

I hear what you are saying on "regulation in reporting", but I'll just stand fast that the value of stocks on the market are not based on merit.

short term or long term? You have seen the quote of "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." or explained another way that market prices represent (an often irrational) short-term popularity contest, but in the long run they tend to gain in value due to return on capital, economic growth, and inflation (and for individual investors, dividends paid) – similar to a weighing machine

I do not this we are that far apart. the scary thing for crypto for me (which I would not touch at all) is that you have zero revenue, zero backing, zero value asset that is absolutely hot air, subject to no meaningful regulation that I know of. very different in my book to extensive stock market regulation in US (especially post Great Depression where SEC and other organizations were created). Crypto (which may eventually become an asset if nation states would allow it) is at the infancy stage of that journey with many unpleasant surprises ahead. risk is enormous , rewards are unknown.

 

[Arkaign]

Fees = $$$
- financial intermediates collect their fees (sale loads, expense ratios, etc)
- it inevitably blows us
- people IRAs/401s and any pension plans stupid enough to go for the fad get crashed.

Oh, step-crypto, what are you doing 😳😅

 

[simas]

Oh, step-crypto, what are you doing 😳😅

Bring new meaning to phrase this experience blew me away...

 

[BFG10K]

Chinese miners are mass-selling their graphics cards:

Crypto miners in China are selling off their graphics cards amid crackdown

PC Gamer reports that a screenshot posted to Taiwanese bulletin board PTT shows miners in China are selling large numbers of Nvidia and AMD GPUs, from the...

www.techspot.com

 

[Mopetar]

Are they actually hitting the wider market or just being scooped up by miners that will ship them to another country where they'll get used there. The article mentions that they're being sold in bulk, so it seems unlikely that these are winding up in the hands of gamers. Still it will at least allow the prices to come down to some degree since it's fulfilling demand and miners probably don't care if they're buying a card new or from another miner if the price is good.

 

[ultimatebob]

The crypto crash seems to have stalled out. Bitcoin is still above $30K, and Ethereum is still above $2K. Hell, even Dogecoin is still around a quarter.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

The crypto crash seems to have stalled out. Bitcoin is still above $30K, and Ethereum is still above $2K. Hell, even Dogecoin is still around a quarter.

As I said elsewhere I think it is going to be a long slow slide
Not a dramatic crash

 

[jpiniero]

As I said elsewhere I think it is going to be a long slow slide
Not a dramatic crash

It could certinately go back up once people realize the Fed is lying and they won't raise rates.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

The price is almost certainly gonna come up, and then down again. That's crypto's only future, pump and dump over and over. Buy low, hype it up and pass it off to the next loser who buys in right before the crash.

 

[VirtualLarry]

The price is almost certainly gonna come up, and then down again. That's crypto's only future, pump and dump over and over. Buy low, hype it up and pass it off to the next loser who buys in right before the crash.

Isn't that the definition of the Stock market? (See: "meme stonks")

 

[Roger Wilco]

The price is almost certainly gonna come up, and then down again. That's crypto's only future, pump and dump over and over. Buy low, hype it up and pass it off to the next loser who buys in right before the crash.

Based on Bitcoin's history, buying right before the crash still led to immense profits for those who invested for the long term. Maybe that trend will break this time and BTC never returns to all time highs, or maybe it continues to do what it has always done.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

Isn't that the definition of the Stock market? (See: "meme stonks")

Nah, I'm not gonna lionize the stock market as it has a lot of obvious problems, but meme stonks are really a counter-example. They're bought up to try and cause a short squeeze since they're so heavily shorted, and they're being shorted because their businesses have been struggling for a long time. Ultimately they have revenue and assets and a business that does something. Crypto really doesn't have any uses that aren't illegal besides speculation. Maybe years ago before bitcoin's fees got prohibitively high or before Eth's blockchain got clogged to the point of uselessness, but now it's just speculation that the price will go up because reasons.

People like to compare it to speculating on gold, but gold is at least useful in jewelry and electronics. Crypto is more like penny stocks, really only existing so people can hype them up and dump them on other suckers.

Based on Bitcoin's history, buying right before the crash still led to immense profits for those who invested for the long term. Maybe that trend will break this time and BTC never returns to all time highs, or maybe it continues to do what it has always done.

Oh, no, I'm not saying it won't keep hitting new all-time highs in between crashes. But that's all it has. Bitcoin sucks as a currency and blockchain sucks as a tech.

 

[JustMe21]

Although there is a lot of news about mining farms potentially moving, it could still be a real inconvenience for some groups, which is why there's a lot of equipment being sold and even Bitmain has stopped making new products until the market stabilizes. Lower hash rate cards are probably also frustrating mining farms, although people have to avoid buying the highly priced GPUs so retailers, scalpers, and used card sellers drop the prices back down to reasonable levels. Of course, with Ethereum going to Proof-Of-Stake and other P-O-S initiatives ramping up, now might be the time for Proof-Of-Work farms to reinvest in Proof-Of-Stake. Also, given how much electricy costs went up in Texas during the freeze last year, I would think that would be the last place any crypto farming operation would want to move to.

It might also be a good time to cash out as a Tether crash could hurt prices for quite a while.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Surprised anyone even puts up with USDT anymore. People should have learned better back in 2018.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

Surprised anyone even puts up with USDT anymore. People should have learned better back in 2018.

I'm not. Exchanges are stupid and greedy, and seeing the crypto market recover after Mt Gox collapsed just taught them there's more than enough suckers out there. Why shouldn't they hop on a shady stablecoin that's been banned from operating in New York?

 

[BFG10K]

Another attack, this time demanding Monero as payment:

Huge ransomware attack hits hundreds of US businesses

Kaseya states that it was made aware of a security incident around noon on Friday, as a result they put its cloud services into maintenance mode and...

www.techspot.com

But..but...vaccine temperatures...

A whole new class of attacks made possible because of this diseased cancer. The ponzi scheme is nothing more than a ransomware enabler.

I agree with some other comments: as soon as one of these parasites gets into something dangerous like sealed congress records or pentagon weapon systems, Crypto will be wiped off the planet.

 

[Shmee]

Some hyperbole there. I really don't think you should be throwing out the word cancer like that. Honestly, I think crypto is here to stay, and will evolve and adapt as needed.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Another attack, this time demanding Monero as payment:

Hmm, hackers are getting smarter, realizing that Bitcoin is a PUBLIC ledger, and thus, traceable.

Monero, I haven't studied the architecture, but it was designed from the beginning as a "Privacy coin", and thus, not really publicly-auditable.

As far as CC in general "enabling" these sorts of attacks, I don't know that I would go that far. There's always moneygram, or swiss bank accounts (are those a thing still?), if CC wasn't invented.

I think that the possibility that these systems-level attacks are possible, is the problem. Not the method of payment. (Although, certain CC do make payment "simple and easy" for the hackers, but that's a side-effect of making payments IN GENERAL "simple and easy" for the users.)

 

[DrMrLordX]

I'm not. Exchanges are stupid and greedy, and seeing the crypto market recover after Mt Gox collapsed just taught them there's more than enough suckers out there. Why shouldn't they hop on a shady stablecoin that's been banned from operating in New York?

What does USDT have to do with Mt. Gox? That was ages ago. I'm talking about the Tether audit fiasco in 2018, and the speculation that excess Tether "printing" may have been instrumental in the meteoric rise of crypto prices in 2017 followed by a crash. There were newer, better stablecoins with better transparency and accounting introduced to compete with USDT/Bitfinex. There's almost no reason to waste time with USDT anymore.

A whole new class of attacks made possible because of this diseased cancer. The ponzi scheme is nothing more than a ransomware enabler.

Which ponzi scheme now? XMR is a secure payment system. It's slow, but it works. The mining system allows for infinite XMR to be produced, it can be mined on CPUs, and nobody in particular cares how much its worth as long as transfers are private. That ransomware gangs are taking payment in XMR now merely shows its an effective system of payments.

 

[beginner99]

or swiss bank accounts (are those a thing still?), i

As far as I know, officially not a thing anymore if you don't want to be caught. US and EU pressured them into dropping that. Much better of with Jersey, caymans or probably even Delaware. Yes, the US doesn't even demand same standard form their own states they do from foreign countries.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

What does USDT have to do with Mt. Gox? That was ages ago. I'm talking about the Tether audit fiasco in 2018, and the speculation that excess Tether "printing" may have been instrumental in the meteoric rise of crypto prices in 2017 followed by a crash. There were newer, better stablecoins with better transparency and accounting introduced to compete with USDT/Bitfinex. There's almost no reason to waste time with USDT anymore.

Exchanges make heavy use of the thing and I honestly think that if the Tether peg of 1 USDT = 1 USD breaks, crypto is gonna crash EXTREMELY hard as a lot of exchanges will suddenly be missing a major chunk of what they've been using as their reserve asset and explode as a result. Whether there's 'better' stablecoins doesn't matter if everyone is already using Tether. Large numbers of exchanges basically use Tether instead of USD (probably to dodge regulations) and if Tether goes, so do they.

I think that the possibility that these systems-level attacks are possible, is the problem. Not the method of payment. (Although, certain CC do make payment "simple and easy" for the hackers, but that's a side-effect of making payments IN GENERAL "simple and easy" for the users.)

Ransomware existed before bitcoin, but not on anything close to this scale. You're gonna have an uphill battle if you're gonna argue ransomware would be this bad if crypto was never a thing.

 

[Shmee]

I have used USDC between exchanges, especially since coinbase only recently started accepting tether.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Exchanges make heavy use of the thing and I honestly think that if the Tether peg of 1 USDT = 1 USD breaks

Tether Ltd. has been under Federal investigation since 2018. They look crooked as hell, but they've been that way for a long time. They're a parasite for which the market has gained some tolerance. It would be better for USDT to go away but it's still there; fortunately, nobody really needs to use it anymore.