That day Elon Musk almost certainly committed a felony... (yesterday)

[cytg111]

For every story like that, there are also a thousand others where people did trust CEOs who turned out to be snakes and got wiped out.

True that. Musk is ~half way through his CEO career though. No snakes yet.

 

[Bitek]

For every story like that, there are also a thousand others where people did trust CEOs who turned out to be snakes and got wiped out.

Well that's the risk right?

Index funds are very safe investments, but they are not going to make/lose you the money ponyo's making.

 

[Brainonska511]

Well that's the risk right?

Index funds are very safe investments, but they are not going to make/lose you the money ponyo's making.

Sure. I just thinking playing the if I'd done invested in that one stock game, or entering that game now like it's easy money, is overall a good strategy for losing money. Sure, you can make it big, like ponyo is doing, but there is also substantial risk.

 

[jman19]

Jesus Christ dude, you posted this on Christmas?

What do you think I'm afraid of? Nothing has changed, still an unprofitable company led by an odious asshole and being propped up by insane amounts of idiotic investment. This whole episode is a good example of why I don't play the stock market. You can be 100% right and still lose your money. I'm no fan of Bill Ackman, but he was right about Herbalife and it didn't matter, he still lost huge on his short.

Investment time horizon and liquidity is a thing. Stubbornly holding on to long term thinking - even if you'r eventually "right" - can cost a lot of money or worse bankrupt you. The market isn't for purists unless you have a lot of money.

 

[Bitek]

Sure. I just thinking playing the if I'd done invested in that one stock game, or entering that game now like it's easy money, is overall a good strategy for losing money. Sure, you can make it big, like ponyo is doing, but there is also substantial risk.

Huge risk, and if were easy more people would be doing it, but, it does work spectacularly sometimes and you have to tip the hat to the hand well played.

I know I wouldn't try it because I don't feel comfortable with that much risk, I'm mostly invested in index funds, but I do keep a portion of my investment $ reserved for some higher risk investments.

Sometimes it's worked, sometimes it's a wash, sometimes the ball beaned me in the head. Overall it's been a net plus, but it can be stressful and infuriating.

Fortunately it's been a long term bull market that's been very forgiving to mistakes. Hope it continues.

 

[Bitek]

Above $900 now. OMG

 

[ponyo]

Above $900 now. OMG

Tesla powered baby! This is just one of my 3 accounts with Tesla.

Turned $46k into over $1 million in less than 7 months.

 

[Bitek]

Let's see, in that time I turned my $48k I set aside in cash into....$52k.

I don't suppose you will be buying a time machine will you, and what would it cost for a ride?

 

[CU]

Tesla powered baby! This is just one of my 3 accounts with Tesla.

Turned $46k into over $1 million in less than 7 months.

Now the question is do you sale or are you in it for keeps. I bought some when it they IPO'ed years ago. Wish I had put everything I had in it now. The stock is crazy. I am just going to let it sit and see where it goes. Or, until I get close to retirement and stocks become to risky for short term gains.

 

[ponyo]

Let's see, in that time I turned my $48k I set aside in cash into....$52k.

I don't suppose you will be buying a time machine will you, and what would it cost for a ride?

I still think this is just the beginning of crazy 10-20 year run for Tesla. I'm not selling Tesla that's in my other two accounts. This account, I'm only selling enough to get off margin and then hold on. Tesla is volatile and it's going to have big swings, up and down. But if you're not on margin, you can just hold and ride out the volatility. What made it so tricky for me is I was on full margin most of the past 7 months on this trading account. I reduced my exposure by half before the last Q4 earnings. If I kept my full position on this account, gains would've been doubled.

 

[Bitek]

I still think this is just the beginning of crazy 10-20 year run for Tesla. I'm not selling Tesla that's in my other two accounts. This account, I'm only selling enough to get off margin and then hold on. Tesla is volatile and it's going to have big swings, up and down. But if you're not on margin, you can just hold and ride out the volatility. What made it so tricky for me is I was on full margin most of the past 7 months on this trading account. I reduced my exposure by half before the last Q4 earnings. If I kept my full position on this account, gains would've been doubled.

Yeah, the margin account is what I thought was super risky, certainly more than I could tolerate and not be a nervous wreck, however it's those risky bets that pay of big time when you're right.

Personally, I HATE losing, more than I like winning. Also, the vast majority don't beat the market long term, and I know I don't have time or temperament to try to be a pro at it, so that has made me fairly risk adverse.

I do play it a little more aggressive than just only buying index funds (or worse, those target date funds) and only risk money I can afford to gamble with, and even then try to make safer risky bets.

I've done well by it when I compare my portfolio vs just buying index funds, but no crazy grand slams like you hit. Bravo.

 

[Bitek]

Now the question is do you sale or are you in it for keeps. I bought some when it they IPO'ed years ago. Wish I had put everything I had in it now. The stock is crazy. I am just going to let it sit and see where it goes. Or, until I get close to retirement and stocks become to risky for short term gains.

I do think Musk is one of the true rare visionary geniuses.

I am very pro electric car/green energy and I've been long since disappointed in the markets slow and tepid embrace of e-cars and green electrification of the power and transportation grid.

Tesla is harnessing a powerful innovation trend that's been ignored by the traditional market.

What I've been waiting to see if Musk and Tesla could turn that genius into operational competence. There are a lot of very smart people that can't.

What had me jumping is that the indicators say they have. It will be a long road, but Tesla is for real.

I am rejoicing at their success and how they are burning GM, Ford and the other autos who dicked around with ecars as a gimmick, and only truly embraced gas guzzling trucks as their profit engines. Tesla now has a market cap larger than both those dinosaurs combined.

I'm enjoying an extra special FU to Ford, as they decided to kill all their cars and go all in on trucks, and to GM for killing off the EV1 and opting for mediocrity instead.

I hope Musk can crush the oil industry next.

 

[hal2kilo]

I just looked at CNBC. Holy shit! Never in my dreams.

 

[bigi]

It has not even started. People have no clue.

Karma is good:

Saudi Fund Sold Almost All of Tesla Holding Last Quarter

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund sold almost all of its Tesla Inc. shares last quarter, nearly exiting what had been one of the largest holdings in the electric-car maker.The Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund held just 39,151 shares at the end of the year, according to a...

finance.yahoo.com

surprise.

 

[ultimatebob]

Yeah, now might be time to sell a little bit of that stock. If we learned anything from Bitcoin's rise in 2017, nothing goes up in value that quickly and stays there for long.

(And, YES, I actually hold a little bit of TSLA stock. I'm selling some of it today to lock in my gains)

 

[Bitek]

Yeah, now might be time to sell a little bit of that stock. If we learned anything from Bitcoin's rise in 2017, nothing goes up in value that quickly and stays there for long.

(And, YES, I actually hold a little bit of TSLA stock. I'm selling some of it today to lock in my gains)

I did that at 500 and really wish I hadn't, but you got to expect a turnover and correction soon.

 

[ponyo]

Yeah, now might be time to sell a little bit of that stock. If we learned anything from Bitcoin's rise in 2017, nothing goes up in value that quickly and stays there for long.

(And, YES, I actually hold a little bit of TSLA stock. I'm selling some of it today to lock in my gains)

Perspective. This is not the first time TSLA has made this kind of run. In fact, the run in 2013 was far greater. TSLA went up more than 600% that year. We're up no where near 600% on this current run. We're about half way if we use 2013 as a guide.

Lot of money is at stake and the crazy 50 million+ daily volumes the past two days speaks to that. My guess is that they are still far more people who want to get into Tesla than get out. And shorts who want to cover and get out as well. All are looking for good price to do that. So we may sell off short term. That's to be expected after this massive move up. But thinking TSLA stock is going to crash like Bitcoin is foolish. This drop is to shake out the weak hands and MM to not have to pay out on $800+ call options. Or at least minimize it. But usually on parabolic moves like this, the end comes with blow off top. I haven't seen one yet. The rise has been very orderly.

If you want to make big money, you have to think big. And not have toilet paper hands. Nice thing about Tesla is that I know in back of my mind, Tesla is just a baby. So any mistake I make with trading Tesla, if I hold long enough, I'll be bailed out because Tesla is going to $5,000 to $20,000 in the long run. So long as I'm not on margin, I can wait out any downturn. And there will be many. But there will also be many incredible runs on the way to $3,000 to $5,000 by 2025.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

The amount of money I'm seeing made on OTM calls bought a few weeks ago is just mind numbing. From approx 50K three weeks ago to 775K yesterday is just one example. And this is on a Canadian Tax Free Savings Account.

I grabbed some OTM puts yesterday that were well out of the money and they are already up over 25% in the first two minutes since market open here.

 

[Bitek]

My amateur guess is that we'll see some profit taking, high volatility and shakeout that will push the stock lower short term. +$250+ in two days is nuts.

What I'm hoping will happen is a correction down to a new sustainable floor, perhaps around $500 or so, things consolidate and stabilize, then begin moving back up in a less frenzied pace with continued good news and outlook.
But what do I know.

 

[ponyo]

My amateur guess is that we'll see some profit taking, high volatility and shakeout that will push the stock lower short term. +$250+ in two days is nuts.

What I'm hoping will happen is a correction down to a new sustainable floor, perhaps around $500 or so, things consolidate and stabilize, then begin moving back up in a less frenzied pace with continued good news and outlook.
But what do I know.

I doubt it will get to $500. Just looking at the charts it looks like $700 and $650 are the next levels if $750 range doesn't hold. I don't see it going below $600 at all. But this is TSLA so crazier things have happened and big oil and automakers have to feel extremely threatened right now. People do crazy things when they're desperate.

I bought some TSLA on margin for trade here. I think we'll get small bounce from this level. I like my risk/reward setup here.

 

[Bitek]

I doubt it will get to $500. Just looking at the charts it looks like $700 and $650 are the next levels if $750 range doesn't hold. I don't see it going below $600 at all. But this is TSLA so crazier things have happened and big oil and automakers have to feel extremely threatened right now. People do crazy things when they're desperate.

I bought some TSLA on margin for trade here. I think we'll get small bounce from this level. I like my risk/reward setup here.

Yeah, I'm not being very precise here, but I just wouldn't be surprised if it gaps back down to that 650 level and holds, or does find some volatility and drops into that $550 zone that was fairly stable. My hope is that does just so I can buy at a good level, but it's all guessing. I have a limit order down there to see if something happens, otherwise I'm just watching a bit and trying not to get suckered into overreacting one way or another.

 

[hal2kilo]

I just looked at CNBC. Holy shit! Never in my dreams.

I'm so surprised, what goes up must come down.

 

[bigi]

I'm so surprised, what goes up must come down.

SeeEnBeeSee, ah?

Hope you don't invest based on their 'reporting'. LOL

 

[ponyo]

You know the crazy thing is if this Tesla run follows the 6x pattern of 2013, TSLA is going to $1,800. And the scary thing is it's following almost the exact pattern. It had been trading in tight trading range since the 2010 IPO for 3 years. Then around May 2013, TSLA shot up from around $35 to $90 after the Model S delivered first positive earnings. Then it fell down to $70. Then it went back to like $93 before blasting off to $180.

So fast forward to 2020. Tesla was around $350 beginning of December 2019. So if we just add zero to the 2013 TSLA prices, that's $350 to $900. Then fall to $700. Then go back up to $930. Then breaking $1,000 before blasting off to $1,800. That would complete the move.

BTW, in 2013 after TSLA hit $180, it dropped back down to $110-$120 range before shooting back up. It went to around $270 or so before settling around $250. It traded in trading range of $200 to around $350 for 5 years. That's a long base and explains this current powerful move up. When a stock trades in such tight range for such a long time, any break move is amplified. Think of it like a coiled spring. You compress the spring until you can't hold it anymore and it erupts when you release it. Traders know the longer the base, the more violent the explosion when it breaks out.

Anyway, this is something to keep an eye on. The potential is there. As they say, history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes.

 

[hal2kilo]

SeeEnBeeSee, ah?

Hope you don't invest based on their 'reporting'. LOL

No, all those shows are just cheer leaders for capitalism, so it's almost always sunny over there. I took Cramer's advise once many years ago. He's an idiot.