Texas vs Ohio

[StageLeft]

What's killed Ohio is the Republican anti-workder policies that Have encouraged and made it easier for corporations to replace good paying jobs with lower paying ones.

Yes, perhaps they should have mirrored how Detroit deals with its employees, forced to keep them until it heads inexorably towards bankruptcy at which point the money simply isn't there at all, for anybody.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Midnight Rambler

The main loss of manufacturing jobs has been automation and not nafta

Totally, totally clueless.

Just one example for you. One of the plants that produce the product for which I am responsible was highly automated, yet the number of jobs for humans stayed approximately the same, they just changed in terms of job responsibility, etc. Automation requires a massive amount of human support ... attendants, PM, repairs, etc.

This plant was closed in December and the product production was re-sourced to Mexico. I spent several months down there helping them get started. Guess how much of the "automation" (equipment) went south ? Basically zilch. Where (4) workers were required for each highly automated manufacturing "cell" up here, the Mexicans just took the basic superstructure of the cell (a "pallet" based conveyor system), the dedicated assembly "pallets", and then brought in manual peeners, rivetors, screw guns, etc. And then added 18 manual laborers per cell, plus 2 repair/service men. They're tripping over themselves and producing less than half of what we did here. Not to mention quality sucks, PPM is rising faster than I can calculate it.

And another nugget for you ... Honda just announced they are closing their Marysville, OH motorcycle plant. Also highly automated yet it employed thousands.

Those are nice anecdotes, but they are not the norm. Automation has been destroying manufacturing jobs far faster than outsourcing.

 

[Midnight Rambler]

Horse hockey.

And actually, the manufacture of the product to which I referred had been "automated" since the early 70's, depending on how you define "automation".

My first "job" as an engineer was to automate the production of an automotive door stamping (reinforcement for the "striker" area). This was right after Roger Smith bought Fanuc for GM. Massive line of 24 stamping presses, each formerly stationed by a human. Even palletized the finished product in to its shipping containers. Lasted not even two years before humans "replaced" the robots.

How about another ... for the last 3 years, GM has been recognized as having the top assembly plants in the world, in fact, 3 of the top 5 (Toyota and Honda aren't even on the list, Audi and Porsche are the other two). The ranking is based on efficiency, quality, etc. All are highly automated. And all are slated to be closed in the next 1-2 years.

You seem to be entirely missing the point that most manufacturing companies look to in making their outsourcing decisions ... dirt cheap foreign labor. We tried to increase levels/amount of automation in order to combat this and it did not work. Even Mexico is starting to feel the effects of this, losing a lot of jobs to China solely based on the cost of labor. Of course this is very short-sighted on the part of those who make such decisions, as many other "costs" besides labor actually increase.

I would agree, however, that NAFTA is not the main cause either. Most of our trade imbalance there is down to oil imports. Our REAL problem is the huge trade imbalance with China.

 

[charrison]

midnight rambler,

The problem is you are looking at anecdotes and not the entire industry. As a whole for the last several decades manufacturing has been increasing while reducing workers. THis means we continue to make more stuff and do it with less people. Over the last several years this process has accelerated to some extend. Over this time period manufacturing has grown well, but employment in this sector has been flat to shrinking.

The world is shifting away from manufacturing employment to services. This is reality and even new emerging markets are skipping manufacturing and going directly to services.

 

[Train]

Originally posted by: techs
What's killed Ohio is the Republican anti-workder policies that Have encouraged and made it easier for corporations to replace good paying jobs with lower paying ones.

Wow, your dumber every time I see you post.

 

[JS80]

You think a politician cares about making things better? Their sole goal is to get re-elected (promise voters something for their vote).

 

[Engineer]

Let me say that NAFTA has helped Texas as much as it has hurt Ohio. Many companies are relocating to Texas or opening "warehouses" there to receive cheaper made Mexican goods. My company and many thousands of others have done this. Not saying that Texas isn't doing well on it's own, just pointing out that NAFTA isn't hurting Texas because of the logistics of Texas to Mexico.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs
Gee, you think oil going for 100 per barrel has helped Texas?
And NAFTA has certainly created jobs in Texas, since it is on the border of Mexico.
Its the rest of the country NAFTA is hurting.
What's killed Ohio is the Republican anti-workder policies that Have encouraged and made it easier for corporations to replace good paying jobs with lower paying ones.
So Ohio loses good jobs, while other states get lower paying jobs.

Take a moment to read the article. Ohio has far larger problems than NAFTA. The main loss of manufacturing jobs has been automation and not nafta.

From my point of view, it's either automate (because of NAFTA) what you have left and keep them open or send them to NAFTA'ed (cheaper than dirt labor) Mexico. My company's final plant (of 3) in Ohio is scheduled to close down in April. It survived as long as it did because of automation (more than any other plant at the time). However, even that can't compete with $0.80 per hour with no benefits (even with added shipping costs).

People like to kick automation in the balls when they really don't understand that automation actually helps save what is left. And for the record, automation is cutting into the Mexican workforce as well. Machine tools are now being replaced with cheaper robots which now do the required precision works as well as moving the parts from one area to another, therefore reducing the need for so many Mexican workers and also increasing quality at the same time.

 

[Midnight Rambler]

The problem is you are looking at anecdotes and not the entire industry. As a whole for the last several decades manufacturing has been increasing while reducing workers. THis means we continue to make more stuff and do it with less people. Over the last several years this process has accelerated to some extend. Over this time period manufacturing has grown well, but employment in this sector has been flat to shrinking.

The world is shifting away from manufacturing employment to services. This is reality and even new emerging markets are skipping manufacturing and going directly to services.

1.) Your replies lead me to believe you have never spent much, if any, time in manufacturing, let alone with automation.

2.) Are you telling me China is skipping manufacturing and going directly to services ? If so, WTF is making all this stuff that says "Made in China", the tooth fairy ?

3.) Thank you, thank you, Engineer, for joining this thread. You and I obviously have very similar knowledge and ACTUAL experience with these issues.

4.) For those not concerned about our loss of a manufacturing base, WTF is going to make the planes, tanks, guns, whatever, for the next World War ? Our manufacturing base is what allowed our brave men (and women) to win WWII, without it you would be speaking German or Russian or who knows. And if you think another "Big One" isn't coming, someday, perhaps sooner than later, you're sadly mistaken. Hopefully I'll be dead by/before then though as it would break my heart to see our Country fall. And fall it will without a strong manufacturing base.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Midnight Rambler

The problem is you are looking at anecdotes and not the entire industry. As a whole for the last several decades manufacturing has been increasing while reducing workers. THis means we continue to make more stuff and do it with less people. Over the last several years this process has accelerated to some extend. Over this time period manufacturing has grown well, but employment in this sector has been flat to shrinking.

The world is shifting away from manufacturing employment to services. This is reality and even new emerging markets are skipping manufacturing and going directly to services.

1.) Your replies lead me to believe you have never spent much, if any, time in manufacturing, let alone with automation.

2.) Are you telling me China is skipping manufacturing and going directly to services ? If so, WTF is making all this stuff that says "Made in China", the tooth fairy ?

3.) Thank you, thank you, Engineer, for joining this thread. You and I obviously have very similar knowledge and ACTUAL experience with these issues.

4.) For those not concerned about our loss of a manufacturing base, WTF is going to make the planes, tanks, guns, whatever, for the next World War ? Our manufacturing base is what allowed our brave men (and women) to win WWII, without it you would be speaking German or Russian or who knows. And if you think another "Big One" isn't coming, someday, perhaps sooner than later, you're sadly mistaken. Hopefully I'll be dead by/before then though as it would break my heart to see our Country fall. And fall it will without a strong manufacturing base.

There have been several points over the past 5 years where we have had RECORD LEVELS of manufacturing production. I believe 2005 and 2006 and the first part of 2007.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: charrison
The problem is you are looking at anecdotes and not the entire industry. As a whole for the last several decades manufacturing has been increasing while reducing workers. THis means we continue to make more stuff and do it with less people. Over the last several years this process has accelerated to some extend. Over this time period manufacturing has grown well, but employment in this sector has been flat to shrinking.

The world is shifting away from manufacturing employment to services. This is reality and even new emerging markets are skipping manufacturing and going directly to services.

The problem is that those college-education-requiring knowledge-based jobs that were supposed to replace the manufacturing jobs are also being sent to India and China or being filled by foreigners on H-1B or L-1 visas. If workers had something worthwhile to retrain and reeducate for, the loss of manufacturing jobs, either to technology or global labor arbitrage wouldn't be as big of a problem.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: WreckemThere have been several points over the past 5 years where we have had RECORD LEVELS of manufacturing production. I believe 2005 and 2006 and the first part of 2007.

Do those stats include manufacturing that occurs in other countries at facilities owned by American companies? I don't know; I'm just asking the question.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Midnight Rambler

The problem is you are looking at anecdotes and not the entire industry. As a whole for the last several decades manufacturing has been increasing while reducing workers. THis means we continue to make more stuff and do it with less people. Over the last several years this process has accelerated to some extend. Over this time period manufacturing has grown well, but employment in this sector has been flat to shrinking.

The world is shifting away from manufacturing employment to services. This is reality and even new emerging markets are skipping manufacturing and going directly to services.

1.) Your replies lead me to believe you have never spent much, if any, time in manufacturing, let alone with automation.

Your right, I have not worked in manufacturing, so i dont have any anecdotal horror stories to tell. However I can give you anecdotal good new stories. But in the end the raw supports my viewpoint.

2.) Are you telling me China is skipping manufacturing and going directly to services ? If so, WTF is making all this stuff that says "Made in China", the tooth fairy ?

Think india, they have a mixture of IT and manufacturing. Think markets in africa that are skipping manufacturing completely for the most part. But guess what, china is losing manufacturing jobs as well, some 30M the last time i saw numbers. Automation is killing jobs around the world, not just here.

3.) Thank you, thank you, Engineer, for joining this thread. You and I obviously have very similar knowledge and ACTUAL experience with these issues.

Yes he is quite knowledgeable.

4.) For those not concerned about our loss of a manufacturing base, WTF is going to make the planes, tanks, guns, whatever, for the next World War ? Our manufacturing base is what allowed our brave men (and women) to win WWII, without it you would be speaking German or Russian or who knows. And if you think another "Big One" isn't coming, someday, perhaps sooner than later, you're sadly mistaken. Hopefully I'll be dead by/before then though as it would break my heart to see our Country fall. And fall it will without a strong manufacturing base.

OUr manufacturing base has never been larger or productive than it is today, it just so happens it required far fewer people to produce what we do.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: charrison
The problem is you are looking at anecdotes and not the entire industry. As a whole for the last several decades manufacturing has been increasing while reducing workers. THis means we continue to make more stuff and do it with less people. Over the last several years this process has accelerated to some extend. Over this time period manufacturing has grown well, but employment in this sector has been flat to shrinking.

The world is shifting away from manufacturing employment to services. This is reality and even new emerging markets are skipping manufacturing and going directly to services.

The problem is that those college-education-requiring knowledge-based jobs that were supposed to replace the manufacturing jobs are also being sent to India and China or being filled by foreigners on H-1B or L-1 visas. If workers had something worthwhile to retrain and reeducate for, the loss of manufacturing jobs, either to technology or global labor arbitrage wouldn't be as big of a problem.

So answer me this, do you want indias best and brightest working in india against US companies or in the US working for US companies? That is the choice as india has decided to IT work and this force cannot be ignored, nor can we be isolated from it.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: charrison
So answer me this, do you want indias best and brightest working in india against US companies or in the US working for US companies? That is the choice as india has decided to IT work and this force cannot be ignored, nor can we be isolated from it.

Perhaps it wouldn't be so bad if only that 5% (or whatever the percentage is) of the people on the foreign work visas who are actual innovators were allowed in the U.S. The problem is that the other 95% displace Americans with comparable skills and abilities. Most are in the country, not because they are better than Americans, but because they're willing to work for lower wages and increasing the supply of labor in the field also helps to drive down wages.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: charrison
So answer me this, do you want indias best and brightest working in india against US companies or in the US working for US companies? That is the choice as india has decided to IT work and this force cannot be ignored, nor can we be isolated from it.

Perhaps it wouldn't be so bad if only that 5% (or whatever the percentage is) of the people on the foreign work visas who are actual innovators were allowed in the U.S. The problem is that the other 95% displace Americans with comparable skills and abilities. Most are in the country, not because they are better than Americans, but because they're willing to work for lower wages and increasing the supply of labor in the field also helps to drive down wages.

But it still remains, they will be competing for the work that america does no matter where they reside. So take your pick on how they will mess with our wages as we cannot remove them from the market.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison
OUr manufacturing base has never been larger or productive than it is today, it just so happens it required far fewer people to produce what we do.

I disagree with that statement. We require fewer US people to produce what we do. We now build pieces and parts (sub assembly if you will) of the items we manufacture and then do final assembly in the US, therefore calling it made in the USA. To do so, we employee many more foreign workers (Mexican comes to mind from my experience) to replace the smaller number of US workers.

Every estimate that I've seen on the number of people required to make sub assemblies in Mexico have required nearly 2 for 1 of every US workers and most of the time, that factor is off by a factor of 1/2 because of the large turnover in Meixco (at any one time, over half of the people working in our Mexican factories have been on the job for less than 30 days (yellow coats)).

I therefore state that to make the same goods/services in the US requires MORE people than it did just a few years ago, but it's not US people that's doing the work. Sub-assemblies from Mexico and other areas for the loss (to the US manufacturing worker).

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Wreckem
There have been several points over the past 5 years where we have had RECORD LEVELS of manufacturing production. I believe 2005 and 2006 and the first part of 2007.

That is true because of the "big ticket" items that the US produces (planes, defense and military equipment, etc). Look around your house and see how much is actually made in the USA. Also, look at the Made in the USA label and see how much of the content is now made here? A 100 million dollar plane may be final assembled here and show up on the books as 100 million dollars "MADE IN THE USA" but it's not even close.

Sub-assemblies made with cheaper foreign labor and imported, finally being assembled here and rubber stamped for the loss.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Wreckem
There have been several points over the past 5 years where we have had RECORD LEVELS of manufacturing production. I believe 2005 and 2006 and the first part of 2007.

That is true because of the "big ticket" items that the US produces (planes, defense and military equipment, etc). Look around your house and see how much is actually made in the USA. Also, look at the Made in the USA label and see how much of the content is now made here? A 100 million dollar plane may be final assembled here and show up on the books as 100 million dollars "MADE IN THE USA" but it's not even close.

Sub-assemblies made with cheaper foreign labor and imported, finally being assembled here and rubber stamped for the loss.

I dont know enough about how they doing the accounting on this, but yo do raise an interesting point.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: charrison
OUr manufacturing base has never been larger or productive than it is today, it just so happens it required far fewer people to produce what we do.

I disagree with that statement.

chicago fed disagrees with you






and as for NAFTA:

http://www.chron.com/disp/stor...ss/steffy/5599864.html

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: charrison

But it still remains, they will be competing for the work that america does no matter where they reside. So take your pick on how they will mess with our wages as we cannot remove them from the market.

The issue is whether we'll allow them to compete and continue to maintain a huge trade deficit or whether we'll use American labor to provide for the nation's needs.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: charrison

But it still remains, they will be competing for the work that america does no matter where they reside. So take your pick on how they will mess with our wages as we cannot remove them from the market.

The issue is whether we'll allow them to compete and continue to maintain a huge trade deficit or whether we'll use American labor to provide for the nation's needs.

The thing is, we cannot disallow from competing. Protectionism does not work.

 

[DarkThinker]

Originally posted by: kedlav

Originally posted by: Painman
Ohio has been unprepared for the economics of the 21st century, because it made the same mistake Michigan did. Assume that heavy industry would stay there forever, and turn out little besides obedient know-nothings from the public schools.

Possibly Interesting anecdote, I grew up in Flint, MI during the 70s and 80s. My mother taught classes in and around there during the same time frame. We came to the same conclusion that the schools weren't really trying to teach a damn thing, because the shops only cared if you could operate a rivet gun or an impact wrench. My mother actually spoke to parents of students who couldn't read, and the parents didn't give a damn because "he'll take over his daddy's job.".

These states are completely fucked for a generation or 2. Futzing with NAFTA won't help them. They need to retool in order to be competitive in 21st century industries (Biotech, Microtech et al) and they need to offer a skilled workforce.

No one can wave a magic wand and make these states better in the short term. If the Fed were to take pity upon Michigan/Ohio and invest in them somewhow, it should focus upon the educational systems in place, and they should start by firing every single person currently in charge of these systems. These states and their localities are being run by retards, because the schools there have cranked out nothing but retards for the last 30 years.

Retards beget more retards.

<--From Ohio. We have one of the best environments for high school graduates in the country. We have a very, very good community college system that is pretty much accessible to anyone in the state, as well as two very well ranked public schools (Ohio State and Miami University) and three decent mid-majors (Toledo, Cleveland State, and Cincy). There are a number of good to great private schools as well (John Carroll, Baldwin Wallace, and of course, Case Western). Out issue isn't so much a skilled workforce, as it is braindrain. Between the high taxes keeping corporations out, as well as the willingness to leave due to the lackluster environment, there really aren't many good paying, high-skill jobs in Ohio, despite the fact that we're one of the better ranked states for high school students getting post-secondary degrees. While I sympathize with most union workers who lost their jobs due to free trade agreements providing them with low-cost labor competition, I'm also pissed as hell at the state of taxes in Ohio (I get fucked pretty good on state taxes, which are definitely higher than the nat'l norm).

<---- From Ohio too. And your right braindrain is a big issue here, big companies are finding it less attractive by the month to keep even their biggest places open in Ohio. I know that from my experience working for a couple of big worldwide engineering companies in places like Cleveland, Dayton, Cincinnati...etc The only reason that I am still here is that I am finishing my 2nd Eng degree (At one of the the schools you mentioned) and then I am SO out of Ohio, with the education and experience I have, I have no doubt God will bless me with a much more rewarding stable job in places like California, North Carolina, Texas, Massachusetts .....It's not to say there aren't jobs in Ohio, however there is no stability or Job security. In places I worked at as an Engineer, I have seen some of the big companies here post record profits while kicking out their best and most experienced engineers they had to the street after 10 OR 15 OR even 20 years of experience and good track record of obtaining patents, designing software / hardware.....it's insane, even though we are not as reliant on manufacturing as MI is, however we are most definitely not planning things right in here IMO.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: charrison

The thing is, we cannot disallow from competing. Protectionism does not work.

There's different kinds of competition, some of it good, some of it bad. Do you regard competing against impoverished labor that receives $0.50/hour in a location where the company has fewer costs for environmental compliance as being good? Competition based not on differences in the cost of labor but on efficiency and technological advance is fine; but wage arbitrage will only result in enriching the wealthy while leaving workers with a smaller fraction of their contribution to the act of production.

Sadly, many Americans have embraced the notions that free trade is good as a dogma and that comparative advantage always applies as an unconditional absolute. It's time for us to begin questioning those beliefs and to put them within proper contexts.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: charrison
OUr manufacturing base has never been larger or productive than it is today, it just so happens it required far fewer people to produce what we do.

I disagree with that statement.

chicago fed disagrees with you

I never said output wasn't better per the number of people employeed in the "US". I stated that the many hundreds of thousands (or millions) of foreign workers now making sub-assemblies and sending them to the US for final assembly (i.e. MADE IN THE USA) skew the numbers. It's taking far more people to make the USA items than just the USA workers. Nowhere in the presentation (1st one) did I see anything about Mexican and other foreign workers making sub-assemblies for US manufacturing.