[Sweclockers] AMD Zen coming in Q3 2016, will be on 14 nm

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nismotigerwvu

Golden Member
May 13, 2004
1,568
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How many chances are there that consoles get an upgraded soc with 4-8 Zen cores by 2016-17?
That would be awesome and finally put them at mainstream/performance desktop level, unlike todays "mobile" based cores.

Worst case I imagine the same soc on 14nm process wouldn't be half bad either, oh a GPU upgrade could help a lot too: 4K TVs are becoming more common and it's just sad for consoles to not be able to handle that...

I wouldn't bet on this happening, but the general idea isn't that far fetched. This generation was fairly underpowered at launch, so it isn't a stretch to think they will have a shorter lifespan than their predecessors. 2018 would be the 5 year mark (fairly close to the typical 6 year shelf life) for the PS4/XBone and would be roughly a year after Zen APUs have shipped. Considering the normal lag between PC market product availability and console launches (~6 months for Jaguar cores and this generation, ~18 months between G70 and the PS3) it all seems possible, if unlikely. Depending on what their performance aspirations are like, I could see Nintendo being the most likely party to launch such a system. A Zen APU with HBM2 would give a huge leap performance wise over the current gen consoles.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
26,018
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You'll have to look at the cost/benefit scenario too
- staying x86
- staying GCN
- staying 8 cores (?)
- staying with the same devkits with a patch
The whole ecosystem for that platform is allready in place, it may be too good to pass up for both ms and sony.
 

nismotigerwvu

Golden Member
May 13, 2004
1,568
33
91
At some point yes, but breaking compatibility with their system that was only just released in 2013 is a pretty hefty con. Maybe in another 4 years they would take a look, but a PS4.1 or Xbox One.1 would go over about as well as the 32X did.
 

Dark Shroud

Golden Member
Mar 26, 2010
1,576
1
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MS & Sony went to x86-x64 because pretty much the whole dev community asked them too. Because of development costs going through the roof.

x86-x64 is mature, they all understand it, and of course desktop PCs/portables.

So yeah we'll probably see new consoles launch around 2017-2018 that are backwards compatible with current models.

My prediction is in line with cytg111's:

  • Zen APUs with 8 cores, threads?
  • DDR4 system memory, hopefully 8GB minimum.
  • Latest GCN profile
  • HBM2, again hopefully 8GB minimum.

Lastly I'm praying they switch to SATA Express for the hard drives so we can use SSDs to their fullest.

I'm going to build a few family systems next year and they'll be AMD, hopefully Zen with DDR4 memory.

I would love to build my nephew an 8c/16th AMD system for school.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
140
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MS & Sony went to x86-x64 because pretty much the whole dev community asked them too. Because of development costs going through the roof.

x86-x64 is mature, they all understand it, and of course desktop PCs/portables.

So yeah we'll probably see new consoles launch around 2017-2018 that are backwards compatible with current models.

My prediction is in line with cytg111's:

  • Zen APUs with 8 cores, threads?
  • DDR4 system memory, hopefully 8GB minimum.
  • Latest GCN profile
  • HBM2, again hopefully 8GB minimum.

Lastly I'm praying they switch to SATA Express for the hard drives so we can use SSDs to their fullest.

I'm going to build a few family systems next year and they'll be AMD, hopefully Zen with DDR4 memory.

I would love to build my nephew an 8c/16th AMD system for school.
MS is quiting the console market... their XBoX one is a flop.
Sony on the other side, might go to HBM2 at 6Gb, DDR4 and Lowclock Zen Dodeca APU Core... only to avoid Intel to use the features from them to being emulated... since there are emulators for PS4 working on Intel Core i7 Octa.
 

redzo

Senior member
Nov 21, 2007
547
5
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MS is quiting the console market... their XBoX one is a flop.
Sony on the other side, might go to HBM2 at 6Gb, DDR4 and Lowclock Zen Dodeca APU Core... only to avoid Intel to use the features from them to being emulated... since there are emulators for PS4 working on Intel Core i7 Octa.
Are your pulling stuff straight from your arshole?
AMD won both designs because they offered the best price/features and they were risk free since AMD had a lot of CPU and GPU design/support experience. The guy above you is right.
 

MiddleOfTheRoad

Golden Member
Aug 6, 2014
1,123
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MS is quiting the console market... their XBoX one is a flop.
Sony on the other side, might go to HBM2 at 6Gb, DDR4 and Lowclock Zen Dodeca APU Core... only to avoid Intel to use the features from them to being emulated... since there are emulators for PS4 working on Intel Core i7 Octa.

Xbox One is the fastest selling Xbox console ever made. You don't have a clue what you're talking about. Sales were up 81% for the Xbox in May alone.

http://www.neowin.net/news/microsof...rowth-vs-may-2014-ps4-still-outsells-xbox-one

Sure, it's not selling at the breakneck pace of the PS4 -- but the PS4 is the fastest selling console of all time. That's a pretty difficult achievement to match.

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2015/03/04/playstation-4-is-sonys-fastest-selling-console/

To quote the article, "Sony Corp. has sold 20.2 million units of PlayStation 4 as of March 1, making PS4 its fastest-selling videogame console ever, the company said Wednesday."

Both game consoles are currently selling at record levels.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
140
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Are your pulling stuff straight from your arshole?
AMD won both designs because they offered the best price/features and they were risk free since AMD had a lot of CPU and GPU design/support experience. The guy above you is right.
About MS is not a joke, just check their numbers and their avaliability... they are really in bad shape.... if Nintendo actually is creating a new console due the flop they created... why MS is not doing something to stop the loses?

Actually the numbers are like this:
- PS4 are at 23.5 millions (Full AMD design, 2013, US$400)
- Xbox One are at 13.1 millions (Full AMD design, same year, US$400)
- Nintendo WiiU at 9.91 millions (AMD GPU design, 2012, US$350)
Link: http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/
And Wikipedia

3 years passed for Nintendo WiiU and two for XBOX One and seems that the first is a confirmed flop and the 2nd one is on the road to become one.

Remember the previous generation? Wii got 150 millions, PS3 about 85 millions and XBox360 into similar numbers

Also MS is starting to give backward compatibility and to make it worse... they can be streamed on a PC... so there is a chance that Xbox One is the last chance of MS on the console market and seeing the current CEO is not supporting XBox division so much, they might thought enough to move everything to a PC again.
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
554
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citavia.blog.de
They are already ruined. Since they use AMD they are automatically ruined.

Being serious, the console market is not in the good shape as the previous gen. Despite they sell more, the quality is slowly going down and now is really noticeable.
Before they used CPUs like MIPS, in-order PowerPCs or Cell. Always with special features bringing some steep learning curves with them. And remembering all the rings of death and other interesting signs of humans building complex stuff should lead us to the question, if for something to go down, does there first have to be something going up before?
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
554
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citavia.blog.de
You'll have to look at the cost/benefit scenario too
- staying x86
- staying GCN
- staying 8 cores (?)
- staying with the same devkits with a patch
The whole ecosystem for that platform is allready in place, it may be too good to pass up for both ms and sony.
But that requires some console market policy decisions. Interestingly for the PS4 there was a only small jump in CPU performance after so many years. Still rebalancing multithreaded code due to much faster CPUs is no fun task. A scalable feature like display resolution or stereo vision should be easier to add by lifting the GPU performance, which was low from the beginning. 4K, 3D, VR, AR are the likely future additions.
 
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
642
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How many chances are there that consoles get an upgraded soc with 4-8 Zen cores by 2016-17?
That would be awesome and finally put them at mainstream/performance desktop level, unlike todays "mobile" based cores.

Worst case I imagine the same soc on 14nm process wouldn't be half bad either, oh a GPU upgrade could help a lot too: 4K TVs are becoming more common and it's just sad for consoles to not be able to handle that...

There aren't even zen APUs on the roadmap until sometime in 2017, even assuming no delays. So 2016 seems totally out, even 2017 unlikely. I think they would not try to upgrade until HBM2 is available in quantity and relatively cheap, and who knows when that will be.

Edit: and that assumes the consoles dont go ARM for compatibility with mobile games, which I think is a 50/50 chance.
 
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shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
I wouldn't count for new consoles before 2018.

Even that is wishful thinking. Keep in mind the XBox 360 lasted 8 years, and there was a lot of talk with the PS4 / XBone that the lifecycle was getting even longer due to slower advancements. Now a die shrink, sure that's pretty likely.

Nintendo will probably be the first to release a new console, and that may well be a 2017 / 2018 box. Rumor is it may have a VR headset too. They have no choice but to shake things up given their current position.

And AMD may well be making the APU. Makes a ton of sense as Nintendo has lost many of its devs due to one-off arch.

http://wccftech.com/amd-making-processor-nintendo-nx/

"AMD Is Likely Making The Processor For Nintendo NX – Announces Third Semi-Custom Design Win"

Read more: http://wccftech.com/amd-making-processor-nintendo-nx/#ixzz3gNGtPZ8w



ug7ujcsad4z4xhyheswv.jpg
 
Mar 11, 2004
23,444
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There aren't even zen APUs on the roadmap until sometime in 2017, even assuming no delays. So 2016 seems totally out, even 2017 unlikely. I think they would not try to upgrade until HBM2 is available in quantity and relatively cheap, and who knows when that will be.

Edit: and that assumes the consoles dont go ARM for compatibility with mobile games, which I think is a 50/50 chance.

Exactly, with Zen APUs taking a while, I don't see there being ones in consoles before it releases. Plus those would likely be some of the biggest chips that AMD will make and with the new process won't be cost effective to put in much more financially conscious consoles. Throw in twists like HBM that could have a big impact on cost, performance, and complexity and I'd guess 2018 is the soonest we'd see consoles with Zen APUs.

It is possible that AMD recognizes how much the console market means and could be expanded on (those chips, especially if Zen is a big upgrade in performance and efficiency over Jaguar and Bulldozer, would be great for all-in-ones, Steamboxes, and other SFFs) and thus tailors their APU lineup to them. But again, due to the size and other issues (memory, could they do a big pool of GDDR 5, HBM, or some hybrid of video memory and main memory, DDR4 is taking a while and probably won't be too cheap for a while) they'll be some of the last Zen based chips to show up.

I also agree that we might see them take this time to jump to ARM (since by the time they release ARM CPUs will probably be more powerful than Jaguar, while being efficient and cheap and having other benefits like Android for Sony and building out ecosystem for Microsoft; I could see the next Xbox being a cheaper ARM powered small console that they could update every year or two). Plus with ARM it opens them up to having more options, as right now they basically have just AMD (since AMD is the only one that has the GPU power and x86/x64 CPUs for cheap), which with AMD's state could present issues going forward. Going ARM opens up nVidia, and all the other ARM companies.

Even that is wishful thinking. Keep in mind the XBox 360 lasted 8 years, and there was a lot of talk with the PS4 / XBone that the lifecycle was getting even longer due to slower advancements. Now a die shrink, sure that's pretty likely.

Nintendo will probably be the first to release a new console, and that may well be a 2017 / 2018 box. Rumor is it may have a VR headset too. They have no choice but to shake things up given their current position.

And AMD may well be making the APU. Makes a ton of sense as Nintendo has lost many of its devs due to one-off arch.

http://wccftech.com/amd-making-processor-nintendo-nx/

"AMD Is Likely Making The Processor For Nintendo NX – Announces Third Semi-Custom Design Win"

Read more: http://wccftech.com/amd-making-processor-nintendo-nx/#ixzz3gNGtPZ8w



ug7ujcsad4z4xhyheswv.jpg

The 360/PS3 lasted that long because of the cost of the systems (MS and Sony lost so much money on them early on that they needed to stretch them out to get back as much of their costs as they could) and the work needed to develop for them. Those were two things specifically targeted with the One/PS4 and so I'd guess they'll get replaced sooner than those were (and there's the possibility there won't be a new Xbox at all).

The NX will likely be out next year (recent rumor said that). The Wii U is just plain flopping and Nintendo has both outright admitted that and is doing little to nothing to change it (Zelda was basically the only big name game and it was a complete no-show at E3 which can't be a good sign). They pretty much have said they want to move on from it as they screwed up by not integrating their home and portable consoles more. The big question though is it going to be a setup like the Wii U with the portable functioning as the tablet, or is it going to be a portable focused system with some way of connecting it to your TV.

I highly doubt Nintendo would be willing to pony up for AMD's latest and greatest (that isn't even out yet). There's basically 3 realistic options for the NX: 1.) it's just updated version of the Wii U and 3DS (kinda like the Wii to the Gamecube), 2.) it'll have an APU similar to the One/PS4 (likely a cheaper option than updating the Wii U's chip, and making it easier to develop for and offering a big benefit to getting ports from those consoles), 3.) it has an ARM CPU paired with an AMD GPU (kinda like the nVidia Shields).

If you've heard Nintendo talk about VR you'd know it's not likely to have VR.

Nintendo has pretty much outright said they'll be behind the curve in hardware as there's too much risk and cost in trying to push that any more.

They've also said that the NX is going to replace both the Wii U and 3DS, so its not likely to be a powerhouse (as they're not going to try to sell a $500+ system that is both a powerhouse home and portable system, the 3DS was $250 and the Wii U was $300+).

I actually think there's a pretty good chance that Nintendo jumps to ARM chips as the CPUs are powerful enough (especially if they opt for A57 or A72, they'll already be in line with the Jaguar cores in the One/PS4) and would let them put even more GPU power on tap. But then that leaves the question of is it a split setup (small SoC in the handheld with a larger more powerful one in the home box, or is it all in one device).

I know the custom AMD ARM chips got pushed back, but has AMD said anything about ARM based products otherwise? That could be a big tipoff. If they've said they won't have any prior to Zen then the NX will likely have an APU based on the one in the PS4/One. If not, then it could be the first major product with ARM cores from AMD.

Actually just thought of another possibility, and it would help extend the life of the Wii U. And that is they make the NX be a shrunk down Wii U with the new portable system as the tablet, so most of the development and cost is in the portable, which is their bread and butter already. Plus they could sell the portable on its own for say $250, and a package with both for $350 (which would get people to pony up for it and help the Wii U install base grow). The current Wii U could be dropped to $200 to clear out stock (without doing a firesale). Then in 2-3 years they could consider updates (could update just the home system, both, or could update it so that the portable and home system become one).
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,439
5,788
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I suspect NX will be a unified development platform, but different hardware for both handheld and home console- make it trivial to port between the two, but still ship two different versions of the game. (See the new Super Smash Bros for an example on current gen hardware.)

My guess would be AMD provided SoCs, with ARM CPU cores. Handheld uses an off-the-shelf processor like the A53 (or possibly A72, depending on perf/W), combined with GCN graphics and LPDDR4 memory. Console uses K12 CPU cores, combined with GCN graphics and DDR4 memory. (Possibly some sort of ESRAM/EDRAM solution to provide a fast scratchpad, like in the Wii U and XBox One.)
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
140
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For the sake of the Pc Gamers, any current console needs to be a flop since they are stopping the industry in the graphic segment.
 

Blitzvogel

Platinum Member
Oct 17, 2010
2,012
23
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For the sake of the Pc Gamers, any current console needs to be a flop since they are stopping the industry in the graphic segment.

It's only the beginning of the cycle, of which there are already vastly superior PC graphics available. I'd say Intel and AMD's push for iGPs-in-CPUs and the change over to consumption computing with phones and tablets has done more "damage" to the graphics industry but in the end, there will always be a push for faster graphics regardless of platform, which spreads across various segments. Phones and tablets especially are just like x86 PCs in that they work around a software ecosystem that makes use of a common OS (Android) but support a myriad of different ARM processor ISAs and core counts, along with different graphics arrays.

While it may be a bit daunting, it's possible one of the current mobile-GPU designers could go into (or in some cases back into) graphics processor add-in board development for both PCs and servers. There is an intense need for them in certain segments, and even if AMD goes away, someone will fill the void, especially if PCs ended up switching to ARM in the future. Gamers want them, graphic artists want them, developers want them, scientists want them, supercomputer builders want them, etc, etc.

If AMD really comes to an end, with no savior in sight, the graphics team at AMD possibly could spin itself off back into the ATi brand or create their own graphics group. I don't know how the IPs and patents would pan out but these are smart guys that Imagination Technologies, Qualcomm, ARM Holdings, etc would want and I could see them starting anew with the right injection of cash.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
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Nope.. Even the GPU division has debts. Also Intel will go after them since with them, nVIDIA would die really fast.
Something unexpected to the industry will happen when AMD dies and seems that those changes will be brutal.

BTW, tablet and phone industry are starting to stop and no industry are replacing them... Maybe we are near to the 'Industrial Winter'? I mean, there might be very low advancements and way more business closing than before.
And AMD is doomed.