There aren't even zen APUs on the roadmap until sometime in 2017, even assuming no delays. So 2016 seems totally out, even 2017 unlikely. I think they would not try to upgrade until HBM2 is available in quantity and relatively cheap, and who knows when that will be.
Edit: and that assumes the consoles dont go ARM for compatibility with mobile games, which I think is a 50/50 chance.
Exactly, with Zen APUs taking a while, I don't see there being ones in consoles before it releases. Plus those would likely be some of the biggest chips that AMD will make and with the new process won't be cost effective to put in much more financially conscious consoles. Throw in twists like HBM that could have a big impact on cost, performance, and complexity and I'd guess 2018 is the soonest we'd see consoles with Zen APUs.
It is possible that AMD recognizes how much the console market means and could be expanded on (those chips, especially if Zen is a big upgrade in performance and efficiency over Jaguar and Bulldozer, would be great for all-in-ones, Steamboxes, and other SFFs) and thus tailors their APU lineup to them. But again, due to the size and other issues (memory, could they do a big pool of GDDR 5, HBM, or some hybrid of video memory and main memory, DDR4 is taking a while and probably won't be too cheap for a while) they'll be some of the last Zen based chips to show up.
I also agree that we might see them take this time to jump to ARM (since by the time they release ARM CPUs will probably be more powerful than Jaguar, while being efficient and cheap and having other benefits like Android for Sony and building out ecosystem for Microsoft; I could see the next Xbox being a cheaper ARM powered small console that they could update every year or two). Plus with ARM it opens them up to having more options, as right now they basically have just AMD (since AMD is the only one that has the GPU power and x86/x64 CPUs for cheap), which with AMD's state could present issues going forward. Going ARM opens up nVidia, and all the other ARM companies.
Even that is wishful thinking. Keep in mind the XBox 360 lasted 8 years, and there was a lot of talk with the PS4 / XBone that the lifecycle was getting even longer due to slower advancements. Now a die shrink, sure that's pretty likely.
Nintendo will probably be the first to release a new console, and that may well be a 2017 / 2018 box. Rumor is it may have a VR headset too. They have no choice but to shake things up given their current position.
And AMD may well be making the APU. Makes a ton of sense as Nintendo has lost many of its devs due to one-off arch.
http://wccftech.com/amd-making-processor-nintendo-nx/
"AMD Is Likely Making The Processor For Nintendo NX Announces Third Semi-Custom Design Win"
Read more:
http://wccftech.com/amd-making-processor-nintendo-nx/#ixzz3gNGtPZ8w
The 360/PS3 lasted that long because of the cost of the systems (MS and Sony lost so much money on them early on that they needed to stretch them out to get back as much of their costs as they could) and the work needed to develop for them. Those were two things specifically targeted with the One/PS4 and so I'd guess they'll get replaced sooner than those were (and there's the possibility there won't be a new Xbox at all).
The NX will likely be out next year (recent rumor said that). The Wii U is just plain flopping and Nintendo has both outright admitted that and is doing little to nothing to change it (Zelda was basically the only big name game and it was a complete no-show at E3 which can't be a good sign). They pretty much have said they want to move on from it as they screwed up by not integrating their home and portable consoles more. The big question though is it going to be a setup like the Wii U with the portable functioning as the tablet, or is it going to be a portable focused system with some way of connecting it to your TV.
I highly doubt Nintendo would be willing to pony up for AMD's latest and greatest (that isn't even out yet). There's basically 3 realistic options for the NX: 1.) it's just updated version of the Wii U and 3DS (kinda like the Wii to the Gamecube), 2.) it'll have an APU similar to the One/PS4 (likely a cheaper option than updating the Wii U's chip, and making it easier to develop for and offering a big benefit to getting ports from those consoles), 3.) it has an ARM CPU paired with an AMD GPU (kinda like the nVidia Shields).
If you've heard Nintendo talk about VR you'd know it's not likely to have VR.
Nintendo has pretty much outright said they'll be behind the curve in hardware as there's too much risk and cost in trying to push that any more.
They've also said that the NX is going to replace both the Wii U and 3DS, so its not likely to be a powerhouse (as they're not going to try to sell a $500+ system that is both a powerhouse home and portable system, the 3DS was $250 and the Wii U was $300+).
I actually think there's a pretty good chance that Nintendo jumps to ARM chips as the CPUs are powerful enough (especially if they opt for A57 or A72, they'll already be in line with the Jaguar cores in the One/PS4) and would let them put even more GPU power on tap. But then that leaves the question of is it a split setup (small SoC in the handheld with a larger more powerful one in the home box, or is it all in one device).
I know the custom AMD ARM chips got pushed back, but has AMD said anything about ARM based products otherwise? That could be a big tipoff. If they've said they won't have any prior to Zen then the NX will likely have an APU based on the one in the PS4/One. If not, then it could be the first major product with ARM cores from AMD.
Actually just thought of another possibility, and it would help extend the life of the Wii U. And that is they make the NX be a shrunk down Wii U with the new portable system as the tablet, so most of the development and cost is in the portable, which is their bread and butter already. Plus they could sell the portable on its own for say $250, and a package with both for $350 (which would get people to pony up for it and help the Wii U install base grow). The current Wii U could be dropped to $200 to clear out stock (without doing a firesale). Then in 2-3 years they could consider updates (could update just the home system, both, or could update it so that the portable and home system become one).