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Question Susquehanna's second chat with Charlie Demerjian

H T C

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Nov 7, 2018
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https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/eczmzx
This is not a good picture Charlie's painting of whatever's left of Intel's roadmap.

For the record, this is also significantly worse than any expectations I ever had as well. Far, far worse.
Agreed.

AMD being ahead is good and fine but being significantly ahead, with Milan (supposedly), means they can REALLY start pricing things high and that's no good for us consumers.
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
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I would think if that timeline for Icelake Server was true they would just scrap it and roll with Saphhire Rapids.

I won't say it's not true though...
 

maddogmcgee

Senior member
Apr 20, 2015
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I am actually ok with AMD dominating for a small period of time (couple of years). They really need it to get back in the game long term. An Intel only world (which is what looked like happening around the Bulldozer era) would be the death of enthusiast PC communities. It's hard to believe a company like Intel with that much money and that many highly qualified engineers, wont hit back hard eventually.
 

uzzi38

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2019
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I would think if that timeline for Icelake Server was true they would just scrap it and roll with Saphhire Rapids.

I won't say it's not true though...
Intel confirmed ICL-SP is Q4 2020 the day after Charlie pretty much said Intel will claim Q4 2020, but you won't be able to actuallly get it though OEMs until 2021. This was like a week ago. I think he's being a bit over the top in places in this call.

He's also wrong in a couple of areas, but compared to the main brunt of what he's saying, they're relatively minor points.
 

IEC

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I would hope rumors of Intel's death are greatly exaggerated. Because while in the short term I may enjoy some deep discounts on Intel hardware (particularly in laptops) I would prefer they help keep AMD honest in pricing by offering some real competition...
 

TheGiant

Senior member
Jun 12, 2017
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Reading this... How can the man live with himself.... The sheer amount of negativity and joy over their failures

The man creates nothing

From the content point of view I dont Get the icelake status
Icelake notebooks are everywhere it doesnt look like capacity problem
 
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Gideon

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Nov 27, 2007
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From the content point of view I dont Get the icelake status
Icelake notebooks are everywhere it doesnt look like capacity problem
If they could produce as much of them as they want, there wouldn't be a shortage of chips. Also server-dies are another ballpark. I agree that Charlie is a total glass-half-empty guy, but the major talking points (of at least Cooper Lake and Ice Lake Server) seem to be correct e.g:

Q: What did Intel tell their OEMs regarding Ice Lake server?

Samples Oct 2020, volume production starts November 2020, sales in 2021.
And the facts that Production of Cooper Lake was supposed to start in 2019 (with availability Q1) and Ice Lake was supposed to be available in H2 (Q3 presumably). I'm a lot more surprised (and a litte sceptical) about his statements about Sapphire Rapid. I guess we'll see soon enough.
 

lobz

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Feb 10, 2017
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https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/eczmzx
This is not a good picture Charlie's painting of whatever's left of Intel's roadmap.

For the record, this is also significantly worse than any expectations I ever had as well. Far, far worse.
Just a couple of days before many of you here told me I was too pessimistic and claimed TGL will launch Q1 2020, or AT THE LATEST 1H 2020. I said yeah right :D
 
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lobz

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Feb 10, 2017
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I would think if that timeline for Icelake Server was true they would just scrap it and roll with Saphhire Rapids.

I won't say it's not true though...
In the reality that may be happening already. You just won't see it admitted officially. Ever. There will always be slides and 1-2 marketing SKUs.
 
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lobz

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Feb 10, 2017
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I am actually ok with AMD dominating for a small period of time (couple of years). They really need it to get back in the game long term. An Intel only world (which is what looked like happening around the Bulldozer era) would be the death of enthusiast PC communities. It's hard to believe a company like Intel with that much money and that many highly qualified engineers, wont hit back hard eventually.
This. I want them to really dominate for a bit just for them to really stabilize financially.
 

lobz

Golden Member
Feb 10, 2017
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Reading this... How can the man live with himself.... The sheer amount of negativity and joy over their failures

The man creates nothing
Do you even know the guy? Have you even seen him live? He's actually a pretty funny and cheerful person :) You just love intel too much :)

From the content point of view I dont Get the icelake status
Icelake notebooks are everywhere it doesnt look like capacity problem
That is the most beautiful evidence of a well-oiled marketing machine capable of a lot of thnings :)
 

TheGiant

Senior member
Jun 12, 2017
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Do you even know the guy? Have you even seen him live? He's actually a pretty funny and cheerful person :) You just love intel too much :)



That is the most beautiful evidence of a well-oiled marketing machine capable of a lot of thnings :)
mate
your posts look like mine in the low 20s
redacted
buy moar coarz, you will have more time !

Completely inappropriate for the tech
areas.

AT Mod Usandthem
 
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tracerbullet

Golden Member
Feb 22, 2001
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Do you even know the guy?
He is pretty fun. Back in the day he and his roommates would throw some pretty big house parties, and they always had something in the frig for folks who decided they'd help themselves to a snack. Jalapeno olives covered in icing, things like that. The beer was safe but beware if you think you're sly and decide to help yourself to any food.
 
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lobz

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Feb 10, 2017
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mate
buy moar coarz, you will have more time !
Stick and stones may break my bones... :)
Oh, and... what a compelling argument to the topic and the question! Your logic is unchallengeable as always :)
 
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lobz

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Feb 10, 2017
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He is pretty fun. Back in the day he and his roommates would throw some pretty big house parties, and they always had something in the frig for folks who decided they'd help themselves to a snack. Jalapeno olives covered in icing, things like that. The beer was safe but beware if you think you're sly and decide to help yourself to any food.
How can you say something like that? You should ask TheGiant for a psychoanalysis before you state something about somebody you may actually know.
 

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
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Some of this is inaccurate, but Intel really is hopeless in desktop and servers for the next few years. What a mess and squandered lead. At least the power of bribes/slush funds will let them hold a very dominant position in laptops even after Renoir and its successors are launched.
 
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Steltek

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Mar 29, 2001
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Just an FYI, it's well know that his site is very anti-intel. Take it all with a grain of salt and obvious major bias.
I don't have any bias against Intel. But, I like Intel's pricing a lot more when they have a legitimate competitor. Because they have so much cash hoarded and because their product development lines are so deep, Intel having legitimate competition hasn't historically happened that often. We should enjoy this while we can.

Some of this is inaccurate, but Intel really is hopeless in desktop and servers for the next few years. What a mess and squandered lead. At least the power of bribes/slush funds will let them hold a very dominant position in laptops even after Renoir and its successors are launched.
The issue in the future will be not how Intel handles this, but how AMD does. Intel has access to a huge pile of cash and technological development pipelines that put anything AMD can muster to shame. Intel will eventually resolve their problems.

The last time AMD managed to pass Intel (with the Athlon/Opteron), they just didn't handle it well at all. Essentially, they just coasted along on the back of Athlon/Opteron until Intel pulled out the Core architecture and literally beat them into the ground with it without even trying.

Of course, since Moore's Law is on the back leg at this point, that isn't likely to happen this time. However, AMD can still easily mess it up. I'd be really happy if they continue to innovate and become a constant competitor to Intel rather than an occasional one.
 

Markfw

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Just an FYI, it's well know that his site is very anti-intel. Take it all with a grain of salt and obvious major bias.
Do you have any information that makes any of this false ? Not just feelings, anything in writing ? A link ? While they may seem anti-Intel, I see nothing to speak of that goes against everything we have heard. And SEEN.
 

LikeLinus

Lifer
Jul 25, 2001
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Do you have any information that makes any of this false ? Not just feelings, anything in writing ? A link ? While they may seem anti-Intel, I see nothing to speak of that goes against everything we have heard. And SEEN.
Do you have any information that makes any of this true? Not just feelings, anything in writing? A link?

Can you point show me where I said it was false or true? I never made a statement saying the information was either.

He also stated in 2018 that Intel canceled 10nm process.
https://semiaccurate.com/2018/10/22/intel-kills-off-the-10nm-process/

Caveat emptor.
 

soresu

Golden Member
Dec 19, 2014
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Do you have any information that makes any of this false ? Not just feelings, anything in writing ? A link ? While they may seem anti-Intel, I see nothing to speak of that goes against everything we have heard. And SEEN.
I was wondering why his forum went kaput a while ago, it's still linked on his site but goes knowhere.
 
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exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
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I don't have any bias against Intel. But, I like Intel's pricing a lot more when they have a legitimate competitor. Because they have so much cash hoarded and because their product development lines are so deep, Intel having legitimate competition hasn't historically happened that often. We should enjoy this while we can.



The issue in the future will be not how Intel handles this, but how AMD does. Intel has access to a huge pile of cash and technological development pipelines that put anything AMD can muster to shame. Intel will eventually resolve their problems.

The last time AMD managed to pass Intel (with the Athlon/Opteron), they just didn't handle it well at all. Essentially, they just coasted along on the back of Athlon/Opteron until Intel pulled out the Core architecture and literally beat them into the ground with it without even trying.

Of course, since Moore's Law is on the back leg at this point, that isn't likely to happen this time. However, AMD can still easily mess it up. I'd be really happy if they continue to innovate and become a constant competitor to Intel rather than an occasional one.
AMD is showing no signs of slowing down. As they have said, they execute on their impressive roadmap regardless of the state of the competition, which is why all these delays will be very painful for Intel. Every year, AMD will make leaps forward while in servers, Intel will still be trying to catch up to Rome. Their answer to it is arriving at the very end of 2021/2022 at this point with likely very disappointing volumes, which is disastrous since AMD will already have launched the Zen 4 based Genoa by that point (assuming no unexpected delays happen).

By the way, Conroe was an evolution of an evolution of the Pentium M CPUs which were known to be far superior in efficiency and IPC to the Pentium 4. Intel only had to build upon it to beat AMD, and they did exactly that. AMD also didn’t have TSMC’s advanced process technology that is beyond Intel’s, nor their manufacturing capabilities back then. I’d say they are in a much more favorable position now, in my opinion.
 

Markfw

CPU Moderator, VC&G Moderator, Elite Member
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May 16, 2002
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Do you have any information that makes any of this true? Not just feelings, anything in writing? A link?

Can you point show me where I said it was false or true? I never made a statement saying the information was either.

He also stated in 2018 that Intel canceled 10nm process.
https://semiaccurate.com/2018/10/22/intel-kills-off-the-10nm-process/

Caveat emptor.
Intel has said themselves they are trying not to loose server % beyond 20%. And 10nm ? Aside from a couple of laptop chips, where are they ?

Those are facts that back up what he said. Not every lines, but much of it. Where are the server chips to compete with Rome ? Nonexistent. I have facts, where are yours ?
Where are the HEDT chips to compete with the 3960x and the 3970x ? Nonexistent.
Where are the desktop chips to complete with the 3900x and 3950x ? Nonexistent.

Need I go on ?
 
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Panino Manino

Senior member
Jan 28, 2017
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Agreed.

AMD being ahead is good and fine but being significantly ahead, with Milan (supposedly), means they can REALLY start pricing things high and that's no good for us consumers.
I'll finally get that price increase? :D

Seriously, I hope AMD manages to make as much cash as possible by the time Intel starts to react.
 
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