such an idiot.. I said the dumbest thing ever

[ShadowOfMyself]

Originally posted by: mobobuff


You fail at probability.

Originally posted by: mobobuff


Yeah, you're probably right anyway.

What are the chances of him being right?

 

[mobobuff]

Originally posted by: ShadowOfMyself

Originally posted by: mobobuff


You fail at probability.

Originally posted by: mobobuff


Yeah, you're probably right anyway.

What are the chances of him being right?

Factoring in my shots of vodka and the last 3 shi*ty days I've had... I'd say 98%.

 

[SolMiester]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Everyone knows girls aren't good at math. She probably thinks you're smart.

:thumbsup:

 

[silverpig]

Originally posted by: So

Originally posted by: silverpig

Originally posted by: clickynext
Hmm, the chances of one person's birthday being on a particular day is 1 in 365. But for two to coincide like that, in some ways it makes sense for it to be the product of those? But then again, you could say that one person's birthday is already set, and the other person's has a 1 in 365 chance of being on that day.

??? *head explodes*

It's only (1/365)^2 if you ask what's the odds of having two people born on july 12th.

Neat! That's me.

Heh. What are the odds huh?

 

[novasatori]

Originally posted by: silverpig

Originally posted by: So

Originally posted by: silverpig

Originally posted by: clickynext
Hmm, the chances of one person's birthday being on a particular day is 1 in 365. But for two to coincide like that, in some ways it makes sense for it to be the product of those? But then again, you could say that one person's birthday is already set, and the other person's has a 1 in 365 chance of being on that day.

??? *head explodes*

It's only (1/365)^2 if you ask what's the odds of having two people born on july 12th.

Neat! That's me.

Heh. What are the odds huh?

apparently no one here knows

 

[MattCo]

Having two children with the same birthday isn't tooo difficult in today's world of scheduled induced births. Just aim the due dates within a couple of weeks apart.

 

[krunchykrome]

Originally posted by: fritolays
I told this girl that she has the same birthday as me... and I told her, "I heard the odds of that happening is like 1 in 300"

if you heard this from someone, would you think he was an idiot? haha

I actually I laughed when I read that. If I actually heard that casually in conversation, I probably wouldnt think much of it. BUt now that you mention it, it sounds funny.

You should have pulled out your ti-83 and calculated a p-value for her.

 

[FoBoT]

girls don't like math, so she didn't understand it anyway, no worries

 

[j00fek]

ok...

 

[hdeck]

don't know what's worse, that you are worried she thinks you're an idiot for getting the probability wrong, or that you are talking probabilities with a girl to begin with

 

[KK]

I thought you were going to say that you said "I do".

Anyways, she was born on the same day, same year as you, that'd be weird.

 

[simms]

1/57 to get to 6 sigma...
1/366 to achieve 100% confidence that two people will have the same bday.

 

[Aikouka]

Originally posted by: ShadowOfMyself
The wiki article confirms the chance is only 100% at 366 people, obviously, since 365 people can still have a birthday in each day of the year, but the 366th will have to repeat someone elses'

Welcome to the Pigeonhole Principle .

Unfortunately, though, some years there are 366 days .

 

[krotchy]

I once dated a girl who it turned out had the exact same birthday as me, though she was 2 years younger. Funny thing is neither of us realized it until like 3 months after we broke up and I got a random facebook wall post. Also she was the hottest girl ive ever dated, but a little :roll:

Still nowhere near as bad as the girl I met on a cruise ship who said something along the lines of the time zone change being like "an hour and a half" from arizona to new orleans.....

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: simms
1/366 to achieve 100% confidence that two people will have the same bday.

Bah, both you and Wikipedia forgot about leap years. It is possible to assemble a crowd of 366 people ALL with different birthdays. You need 367 people to guarantee at least one repeat.

Doh, Aikouka beat me.

Edit: Wikipedia's note mentions that they are ignoring leap years.

 

[MisterJackson]

I don't think it matters either way as you still didn't get laid

 

[LeiZaK]

Originally posted by: simms
1/57 to get to 6 sigma...
1/366 to achieve 100% confidence that two people will have the same bday.

I don't think you can be 100% confident with only 366 people... you need 367 for that. The wiki is wrong.

edit: doh, Aikouka and dullard beat me. I'm slow today.

 

[krotchy]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: simms
1/366 to achieve 100% confidence that two people will have the same bday.

Bah, both you and Wikipedia forgot about leap years. It is possible to assemble a crowd of 366 people ALL with different birthdays. You need 367 people to guarantee at least one repeat.

Doh, Aikouka beat me.

notice the little 1 by their 1/366 = 100% thing.

It mentions at the bottom the leap year possibility.

 

[MrDudeMan]

Originally posted by: LeiZaK

Originally posted by: simms
1/57 to get to 6 sigma...
1/366 to achieve 100% confidence that two people will have the same bday.

I don't think you can be 100% confident with only 366 people... you need 367 for that. The wiki is wrong.

edit: doh, Aikouka and dullard beat me. I'm slow today.

please explain how having more people than the number of days in a year, even if by 1, would not provide 100% probability. with the exception of years with more than 365 days, it would only take 366 people.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: krotchy
notice the little 1 by their 1/366 = 100% thing.

It mentions at the bottom the leap year possibility.

I didn't read the full article and assumed the [1] was a reference, not a note. Oh well, I still stand by my post that simms was technically wrong, but I'll edit the post above to reflect the wiki's simplification.

Originally posted by: MrDudeMan
please explain how having more people than the number of days in a year, even if by 1, would not provide 100% probability. with the exception of years with more than 365 days, it would only take 366 people.

Because there ARE years with more than 365 days, you need 367 people to provide 100% probability.

 

[slsmnaz]

If that's the dumbest thing you ever say in your life then you've got it made. Especially when talking to a female.

 

[LS20]

1/2 chance she didnt realize the mistake anyway

 

[LS20]

7/8 if she was blond

 

[JujuFish]

I'd say the odds are about 4 in 1461.

 

[JS80]

i've heard dumber