such an idiot.. I said the dumbest thing ever

[skim milk]

I told this girl that she has the same birthday as me... and I told her, "I heard the odds of that happening is like 1 in 300"

if you heard this from someone, would you think he was an idiot? haha

 

[skim milk]

hmm.. maybe the odd ISN'T 1 in 365 like I had previously thought

anyone know the real odds ?

 

[MmmSkyscraper]

1 in 11ty billion.

 

[paulney]

Birthday paradox
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox

 

[FleshLight]

1/364 assuming birthdays are evenly distributed.

 

[giantpinkbunnyhead]

That's not the dumbest thing ever said... but it is pretty dumb...

I would nominate the following gem, uttered by a coworker at Subway many years ago. Our store had a TCBY in it; and she was in the process of putting on those stylish plastic gloves prior to making a banana split for the customer. She turns to the customer (who was an attractive male, about her age) and says, "Excuse me, I need to put on these gloves before I handle your banana!"

 

[novasatori]

pretty sure it is 1 in 365.

 

[TallBill]

Originally posted by: novasatori
pretty sure it is 1 in 365.

I'm pretty sure that its not. I guarantee that births are not equally distributed throughout the year.

 

[MmmSkyscraper]

Originally posted by: giantpinkbunnyhead
Our store had a TCBY in it; and she was in the process of putting on those stylish plastic gloves prior to making a banana split for the customer. She turns to the customer (who was an attractive male, about her age) and says, "Excuse me, I need to put on these gloves before I handle your banana!"

:laugh::thumbsup:

 

[MmmSkyscraper]

Originally posted by: novasatori
pretty sure it is 1 in 365.

Leap years and seasonal variations/holidays will screw with that.

 

[NaOH]

Originally posted by: TallBill

Originally posted by: novasatori
pretty sure it is 1 in 365.

I'm pretty sure that its not. I guarantee that births are not equally distributed throughout the year.

They aren't truly uniformly distributed but it's a normal assumption people make to make it easier to calculate.

 

[clickynext]

Hmm, the chances of one person's birthday being on a particular day is 1 in 365. But for two to coincide like that, in some ways it makes sense for it to be the product of those? But then again, you could say that one person's birthday is already set, and the other person's has a 1 in 365 chance of being on that day.

??? *head explodes*

 

[silverpig]

Originally posted by: clickynext
Hmm, the chances of one person's birthday being on a particular day is 1 in 365. But for two to coincide like that, in some ways it makes sense for it to be the product of those? But then again, you could say that one person's birthday is already set, and the other person's has a 1 in 365 chance of being on that day.

??? *head explodes*

It's only (1/365)^2 if you ask what's the odds of having two people born on july 12th.

 

[mobobuff]

The odds are actually 1 in 57, so don't feel too bad.

 

[yhelothar]

Most likely, unless if that's the only thing you've said, she's not going to really put much thought into it.
But then again, if you're that worried, you're probably screwed anyways.

 

[chcarnage]

I've read that in Scandinavia and Finland, most babies are born in autumn. If that is true - maybe because nordic winters are cold and boring?

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Everyone knows girls aren't good at math. She probably thinks you're smart.

 

[LordMaul]

Hmm...what's worse, saying something stupid or wrong, or saying something correct yet being convinced it was wrong? That's the real question.

 

[Mardeth]

Originally posted by: mobobuff
The odds are actually 1 in 57, so don't feel too bad.

Eh, no its not.

 

[ShadowOfMyself]

The wiki article confirms the chance is only 100% at 366 people, obviously, since 365 people can still have a birthday in each day of the year, but the 366th will have to repeat someone elses'

 

[So]

Originally posted by: silverpig

Originally posted by: clickynext
Hmm, the chances of one person's birthday being on a particular day is 1 in 365. But for two to coincide like that, in some ways it makes sense for it to be the product of those? But then again, you could say that one person's birthday is already set, and the other person's has a 1 in 365 chance of being on that day.

??? *head explodes*

It's only (1/365)^2 if you ask what's the odds of having two people born on july 12th.

Neat! That's me.

 

[linkgoron]

Originally posted by: ShadowOfMyself
The wiki article confirms the chance is only 100% at 366 people, obviously, since 365 people can still have a birthday in each day of the year, but the 366th will have to repeat someone elses'

But the WIKI article is about ANY person from the group matching ANY other person.
Here we're talking about one specific date.

 

[mobobuff]

Originally posted by: linkgoron

Originally posted by: ShadowOfMyself
The wiki article confirms the chance is only 100% at 366 people, obviously, since 365 people can still have a birthday in each day of the year, but the 366th will have to repeat someone elses'

But the WIKI article is about ANY person from the group matching ANY other person.
Here we're talking about one specific date.

You fail at probability.

 

[linkgoron]

Originally posted by: mobobuff

Originally posted by: linkgoron

Originally posted by: ShadowOfMyself
The wiki article confirms the chance is only 100% at 366 people, obviously, since 365 people can still have a birthday in each day of the year, but the 366th will have to repeat someone elses'

But the WIKI article is about ANY person from the group matching ANY other person.
Here we're talking about one specific date.

You fail at probability.

hey got 100 on the test. That's what counts. Oh and obviously I'm not talking about what he said, but the fact that the article talks about a different problem than the one in this thread.

 

[mobobuff]

Originally posted by: linkgoron

Originally posted by: mobobuff

Originally posted by: linkgoron

Originally posted by: ShadowOfMyself
The wiki article confirms the chance is only 100% at 366 people, obviously, since 365 people can still have a birthday in each day of the year, but the 366th will have to repeat someone elses'

But the WIKI article is about ANY person from the group matching ANY other person.
Here we're talking about one specific date.

You fail at probability.

hey got 100 on the test. That's what counts. Oh and obviously I'm not talking about what he said, but the fact that the article talks about a different problem than the one in this thread.

Yeah, you're probably right anyway.