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http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...-would-exclude-up-to-700000-young-minorities/
For those who argue that there's no strong evidence that voter ID laws will significantly suppress voting in certain groups, here's a study by the non-partisan Black Youth Project that finds that voting by minorities under 30 would be reduced by between 540,000 and 700,00 in states with voter ID laws.
And in case you doubt the legitimacy of these and other similar findings, highly respected voter statistician Nate Silver of the New York Times' fivethirtyeight blog today wrote that his analysis was including a 2% vote-suppression estimate in his data for Pennsylvania until yesterday's suspension of that state's voter ID statute:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
These laws are despicable, and there's not a shred of evidence that voter ID fraud is anything more than an insignificant problem.
Let's see some principled right-wingers labeling these laws what they actually are: A cynical, deeply un-American strategy to suppress Democratic voting.
For those who argue that there's no strong evidence that voter ID laws will significantly suppress voting in certain groups, here's a study by the non-partisan Black Youth Project that finds that voting by minorities under 30 would be reduced by between 540,000 and 700,00 in states with voter ID laws.
As many as 700,000 minority voters under age 30 may be unable to cast a ballot in November because of photo ID laws in certain states, according to a new study. The lower turnout could affect several House races as well as the tight presidential contest.
Using calculations based on turnout figures for the past two presidential elections, researchers at the University of Chicago and Washington University in St. Louis concluded that overall turnout this year by young people of color ages 18-29 could fall by somewhere between 538,000 to 696,000 in states with photo ID laws.
"Our estimates are conservative. We are looking at demobilization from 9 to 25 percent," said Cathy Cohen, a University of Chicago expert on young and minority voters, who worked on the study with Jon Rogowski of Washington University. "If young people really have valid IDs at a rate of only 25 or even 50 percent, the number of young people of color disenfranchised will be even greater than what we estimate."
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An analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University's law school found that 11 percent of Americans lack a government-issued photo ID such as a passport, driver's license, state ID card or military ID. Nine percent of whites don't have such ID, compared with 25 percent of blacks and 16 percent of Hispanics, the Brennan study said.
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The analysis by Cohen and Rogowski was released this week by the Chicago-based Black Youth Project, a nonpartisan effort launched in 2004 to examine the political participation of African-Americans aged 15 to 25. It estimated that new photo requirements potentially could turn away:
170,000 to 475,000 young black voters.
68,000 to 250,000 young Hispanic voters.
13,000 to 46,000 young Asian-American voters.
1,700 to 6,400 young Native American voters.
700 to 2,700 young Pacific Islander voters. hites don't have such ID, compared with 25 percent of blacks and 16 percent of Hispanics[/B], the Brennan study said.
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Other findings in the Cohen and Rogowski study include:
Changes in Florida's voting laws could leave more than 100,000 young minority voters unable to vote -- far more than the 537-vote margin of victory for George W. Bush in the contested 2000 presidential election.
If Pennsylvania's photo ID law is upheld by the state Supreme Court, 37,000 to 44,000 young voters of color may stay home, or be unable to vote.
In Georgia, photo ID requirements could prevent a "significant number" of the 275,000 black and Latino residents of the redrawn 12th Congressional District from voting.
And in case you doubt the legitimacy of these and other similar findings, highly respected voter statistician Nate Silver of the New York Times' fivethirtyeight blog today wrote that his analysis was including a 2% vote-suppression estimate in his data for Pennsylvania until yesterday's suspension of that state's voter ID statute:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Pennsylvania Dropping From List of Swing States
On Tuesday, a Pennsylvania judge delayed implementation of provisions of a new voter identification law, essentially neutering its impact for this Novembers elections.
Based on academic studies of the effect of changes to voter ID laws, we had estimated that the law would have reduced turnout in Pennsylvania by 2 percent and reduced President Obamas margin relative to Mitt Romney by about 1 percentage point. So while that isnt a huge effect, it is now one less thing for Mr. Obama to worry about.
These laws are despicable, and there's not a shred of evidence that voter ID fraud is anything more than an insignificant problem.
Let's see some principled right-wingers labeling these laws what they actually are: A cynical, deeply un-American strategy to suppress Democratic voting.