State of the Union 2024

[repoman0]

Sure it would, if you're pushing up the wages of the bottom 10% bracket by 20%, that's not a massive amount of money but it's going to push the median a lot.

The median is the midpoint — technically this on its own wouldn’t shift the median at all unless that 20% pushes people in the bottom 10% to the top half (very unlikely)

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I mean it’s just a fact that you are making excuses. Enjoy the heart attack dogs.

Enjoy cutting yourself on that edge

 

[fskimospy]

Sure it would, if you're pushing up the wages of the bottom 10% bracket by 20%, that's not a massive amount of money but it's going to push the median a lot.

That's why we've got that whole 'ancient peoples died in their 40s' falsehood, cuz the bottom 10-30% or whatever died before the age of two.

In fact, how much of the 'wage increases' during the last three years was just the pandy checks? That was a lot of money for me, it'd have been a second income at my first job.

You’re confusing average and median. If the bottom 20% and only the bottom 20% increased their wages the median would stay exactly the same.

 

[fskimospy]

I think it's a result of the top 0.001% again doing way better than everyone else.

Top 0.0001% increasing their incomes a million fold would not change the median income one cent.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

The median is the midpoint — technically this on its own wouldn’t shift the median at all unless that 20% pushes people in the bottom 10% to the top half (very unlikely)

You’re confusing average and median. If the bottom 20% and only the bottom 20% increased their wages the median would stay exactly the same.

Sorry, you're right. It's been like a thousand years since I needed to know the difference.

Nerds.

 

[dank69]

I guess it's due to that inflation?

Inflation was so bad last year that real household income tumbled the most in 12 years, causing families severe economic pain | Fortune

The 2.3% drop in incomes — the most since 2010 — marked the third-straight annual decline.

fortune.com

I still don't understand how your link says real wages were up in 2022 when this says they were down.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I guess it's due to that inflation?

Inflation was so bad last year that real household income tumbled the most in 12 years, causing families severe economic pain | Fortune

The 2.3% drop in incomes — the most since 2010 — marked the third-straight annual decline.

fortune.com

I still don't understand how your link says real wages were up in 2022 when this says they were down.

Well... i will say that his link was actually from 2022, referencing the 2019-2022 timeframe. Your link is from 2023. So maybe everything went to shit in a year and a half?

*whispers* hey does anyone remember what happened in the last year and a half? were there some important events that may have destabilized the economy?

 

[dank69]

Well... i will say that his link was actually from 2022, referencing the 2019-2022 timeframe. Your link is from 2023. So maybe everything went to shit in a year and a half?

*whispers* hey does anyone remember what happened in the last year and a half? were there some important events that may have destabilized the economy?

Yeah but the charts I saw showed median declining all three years.

 

[repoman0]

Enjoy cutting yourself on that edge

Speaking of edge, I’ll be waiting with bated breath to read your 100 posts in a row later this year complaining about the constant record high temps in wherever Texas. That’s a lot of hot dogs.

 

[manly]

Sure it would, if you're pushing up the wages of the bottom 10% bracket by 20%, that's not a massive amount of money but it's going to push the median a lot.

That's why we've got that whole 'ancient peoples died in their 40s' falsehood, cuz the bottom 10-30% or whatever died before the age of two.

In fact, how much of the 'wage increases' during the last three years was just the pandy checks? That was a lot of money for me, it'd have been a second income at my first job.

Pandy checks are not regular income, and are certainly not considered "wage increases" by any economists.

Disposable income was sharply higher in 2021 due to stimulus. I've said before this is actually one of the reasons the electorate is giving Biden such a hard time on the economy. He's a victim of his own success. People grew fond of that juicy stimmy money (as insignificant as it was in the grand scheme), but he gets the inevitable backlash when the spigot was shut off.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I guess it's due to that inflation?

Inflation was so bad last year that real household income tumbled the most in 12 years, causing families severe economic pain | Fortune

The 2.3% drop in incomes — the most since 2010 — marked the third-straight annual decline.

fortune.com

I still don't understand how your link says real wages were up in 2022 when this says they were down.

Also... why do I feel like literally all these things are leaving out the several grand we got in pandemic payments when referencing everyone's income dropping?

 

[fskimospy]

I guess it's due to that inflation?

Inflation was so bad last year that real household income tumbled the most in 12 years, causing families severe economic pain | Fortune

The 2.3% drop in incomes — the most since 2010 — marked the third-straight annual decline.

fortune.com

I still don't understand how your link says real wages were up in 2022 when this says they were down.

Wages were down for some groups and sharply up for low wage workers. In 2023 they were just up for basically everyone.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Pandy checks are not regular income, and are certainly not considered "wage increases" by any economists.

Disposable income was sharply higher in 2021 due to stimulus. I've said before this is actually one of the reasons the electorate is giving Biden such a hard time on the economy. He's a victim of his own success. People grew fond of that juicy stimmy money (as insignificant as it was in the grand scheme), but he gets the inevitable backlash when the spigot was shut off.

Right but how do I know that specific EPI or Fortune article isn't referencing it? Those just say 'income', to which according to the tax man, stimulus payments counted unless I'm misremembering.

EDIT: I guess reading the article more thoroughly would help.

However, the supplemental poverty measure — which is based on post-tax income and includes government-transfer payments like stimulus checks — rose to 12.4% last year. It was the first increase since 2010, which in part reflected the end of government pandemic-era programs and stimulus payments.

For children, the SPM rate more than doubled last year after the expiration of the advance child-tax credit. The benefit, which was expanded in 2021 as a part of Biden’s signature American Rescue Plan, gave families as much as $300 per child per month.

The figures also help explain why Americans have felt like they’re in a recession, even as the economy bounced back quickly from the initial Covid downturn. Hourly earnings have only just started to outpace inflation in recent months after lagging for two years, and measures of consumer sentiment remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

lol, and from the EPI article... unless I'm misreading this, it sounds a lot like it's including the pandy support payments:

Growth for low-wage workers was driven by smart policy decisions​

The fast growth for low-wage workers over the last three years didn’t happen by luck: It was largely the result of intentional policy decisions that addressed the pandemic and subsequent recession at the scale of the problem. Policymakers learned from the aftermath of the Great Recession, in which the pursuit of austerity led to a slow and prolonged economic recovery.

Several large spending bills were passed in the first year of the pandemic, which provided enhanced and expanded unemployment insurance, economic impact payments, aid to states and localities, child tax credits, and temporary protection from eviction, among other measures (Gould and Shierholz 2022). These actions provided relief to workers and their families to help them weather the recession. These measures also fed the surge in employment, which gave low-wage workers better job opportunities and leverage to see strong wage growth.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Speaking of edge, I’ll be waiting with bated breath to read your 100 posts in a row later this year complaining about the constant record high temps in wherever Texas. That’s a lot of hot dogs.

Yeah yeah fuck your mother too

 

[BoomerD]

Pandy checks are not regular income, and are certainly not considered "wage increases" by any economists.

Disposable income was sharply higher in 2021 due to stimulus. I've said before this is actually one of the reasons the electorate is giving Biden such a hard time on the economy. He's a victim of his own success. People grew fond of that juicy stimmy money (as insignificant as it was in the grand scheme), but he gets the inevitable backlash when the spigot was shut off.

But 2 of the pandemic stimulus checks came from Trump, and the one that came from Biden was set in motion by Trump.

 

[manly]

lol, and from the EPI article... unless I'm misreading this, it sounds a lot like it's including the pandy support payments:

That's not what your quoted passage says. I also disagree with that passage generally. Rising entry level wages began somewhere around the mid 2010s, starting on the West coast with the push for a $15/hr minimum wage. There are various factors at play, but I believe it has more to do with "market forces" than some cities (i.e. Seattle) codifying a higher minimum wage.

So if this has been going on for nearly a decade (it eventually moved from the West coast to across the country), it's hard to say that federal policy during the pandemic drove the wage growth.

But 2 of the pandemic stimulus checks came from Trump, and the one that came from Biden was set in motion by Trump.

Correct, but most people have terribly short memories. And terribly bad memories as well. The 2020 stimmy was absolutely necessary, considering large parts of the economy were functionally shut down. One could argue a couple things: the stimulus was probably not enough, and the PPP program was heavily defrauded. By 2021, it's less obvious that more direct stimulus was still necessary (California was still somewhat "closed," Florida and other Sun belt states had long been opened). But let's say Biden's ARP and other policies helped Americans get back on their feet and transition to a post-pandemic world. My point is that many Americans feel that the rug was pulled out from underneath them, so they blame Joe Biden for doing it. He gets very little credit for the fire hoses of stimulus that were directed to the middle class, or for the stable economic growth of the past 25 months.

Also, direct stimmy checks are perhaps the most memorable. But enhanced UI and the CTC were incredibly beefy payouts.

For the record, 2019 GDP growth was 2.3%. Dumb fucks can wax nostalgic about the Trump economy and lower prices, but besides low unemployment, the economy under Trump was hardly robust.

 

[MrSquished]

That's not what your quoted passage says. I also disagree with that passage generally. Rising entry level wages began somewhere around the mid 2010s, starting on the West coast with the push for a $15/hr minimum wage. There are various factors at play, but I believe it has more to do with "market forces" than some cities (i.e. Seattle) codifying a higher minimum wage.

So if this has been going on for nearly a decade (it eventually moved from the West coast to across the country), it's hard to say that federal policy during the pandemic drove the wage growth.



Correct, but most people have terribly short memories. And terribly bad memories as well. The 2020 stimmy was absolutely necessary, considering large parts of the economy were functionally shut down. One could argue a couple things: the stimulus was probably not enough, and the PPP program was heavily defrauded. By 2021, it's less obvious that more direct stimulus was still necessary (California was still somewhat "closed," Florida and other Sun belt states had long been opened). But let's say Biden's ARP and other policies helped Americans get back on their feet and transition to a post-pandemic world. My point is that many Americans feel that the rug was pulled out from underneath them, so they blame Joe Biden for doing it. He gets very little credit for the fire hoses of stimulus that were directed to the middle class, or for the stable economic growth of the past 25 months.

Also, direct stimmy checks are perhaps the most memorable. But enhanced UI and the CTC were incredibly beefy payouts.

For the record, 2019 GDP growth was 2.3%. Dumb fucks can wax nostalgic about the Trump economy and lower prices, but besides low unemployment, the economy under Trump was hardly robust.

MAGA think everything was amazing under Trump. Who cares what the cultists think.

 

[ivwshane]

We all know building more housing is the answer and that zoning laws are not Biden's fault. We're just trying to understand how real wages are better yet people can't afford housing or food or healthcare or cars or education. Maybe someone can explain this effect without getting into a fucking pissing contest.

If your wages go up and your expenses go up it can be a struggle. CPI and inflation are not the same thing.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

That's not what your quoted passage says

How is 'economic impact payments' during the years of the pandemic not pandemic stimulus payments?

 

[dank69]

If your wages go up and your expenses go up it can be a struggle. CPI and inflation are not the same thing.

Real wages are supposed to capture that though. For the median income to drop $2000, we had to lose a lot of high income people and/or gain a bunch of lower income people.

 

[ivwshane]

Real wages are supposed to capture that though. For the median income to drop $2000, we had to lose a lot of high income people and/or gain a bunch of lower income people.

No, real wages are adjusted for inflation.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Maybe a bunch of poor people just died from the pandemic and that's screwing the numbers up.

 

[dank69]

No, real wages are adjusted for inflation.

Does that not take into account cost of living expenses? I thought it did.

 

[BoomerD]

(to me) It’s funny (not in a ha-ha sense) that just a few years ago, Trump wanted to ban Tik-tok…or force it’s sale…and was shut down by the courts, but now that one of his supporters owns a piece…Biden banning it would be a disaster and would DOUBLE the size of Facebook/Meta…which is an “enemy of the people.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/11/trump-says-a-tiktok-ban-would-empower-meta-slams-facebook-as-enemy-of-the-people.html

 

[manly]

How is 'economic impact payments' during the years of the pandemic not pandemic stimulus payments?

The passage you quoted basically said that wage increases were a knock-on effect of good economic policy during the pandemic. Now I'm not saying this didn't happen, but I pointed out that entry level wage gains have been going on for nearly a decade. If you exclude 2020-2021, the U.S. economy has been near "full employment" for some time now. Naturally, that means wage gains for workers, esp. those who were chronically underpaid.

What that passage did not say was that stimmy payments were directly included in wage data, which is what you're implying.