Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

[Vattila]

Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts!

 

[inf64]

Zen 4 might legitimately be selling really poorly. Top 10 best sellers on Newegg is dominated by Zen 3 with some smattering of Alder Lake.

It's hard selling a brand new product on a brand new platform with a premium on price, all that in a recession. Zen 4 brings the best performance but that's associated with a very high cost.

 

[gdansk]

Zen 4 might legitimately be selling really poorly. Top 10 best sellers on Newegg is dominated by Zen 3 with some smattering of Alder Lake.

Board cost. DDR5 cost. Cooler cost. Not a big improvement for gamers. Recession.
Now to see if high end Raptor Lake flops too.

 

[In2Photos]

Board cost. DDR5 cost. Cooler cost. Not a big improvement for gamers. Recession.
Now to see if high end Raptor Lake flops too.

Also the options of those items you mentioned are kind of slim. Especially EXPO memory kits. B650 boards will help, but there is still a ways to go for the whole platform.

 

[biostud]

The main reasons why zen3 faired better in the start:
-it could be used for drop in upgrades
-total system cost was lower
-there wasn't a 3d cache model to be launched, that all the gamers were waiting for.
-the motherboards and memory was readily availiable

 

[jpiniero]

It's hard selling a brand new product on a brand new platform with a premium on price, all that in a recession. Zen 4 brings the best performance but that's associated with a very high cost.

Alder Lake is selling better though. It does sort of line up with the talk of Zen 4 Threadripper Pros coming sooner than people might have expected. Or they could do Zen 4 on AM4.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

Now to see if high end Raptor Lake flops too.

Raptor Lake will probably do better because at least you can run it on a cheaper mobo/ram.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Or they could do Zen 4 on AM4.

They may very well be forced to. Wonder how soon TSMC can bake chips for them on short notice.

 

[leoneazzurro]

Raptor Lake will probably do better because at least you can run it on a cheaper mobo/ram.

If you are speaking about DDR4 MB, then you have to factor in reduced performance.
If you are speaking about DDR5 MB, the cost will almost surely subside to a substantial parity once the launch period effect will end.

 

[insertcarehere]

If you are speaking about DDR4 MB, then you have to factor in reduced performance.
If you are speaking about DDR5 MB, the cost will almost surely subside to a substantial parity once the launch period effect will end.

Z790 and (soon) B760 launch premiums are limited by internal competition with cheaper Z690/B660 alternatives on the same platform. X670/B650 do not face such competition at the moment, and so OEMs hold much more market power in ripping off builders, there would need to be newer chipsets before internal competition can pull prices down to earth on the AMD side.

 

[leoneazzurro]

Z790 and (soon) B760 launch premiums are limited by internal competition with cheaper Z690/B660 alternatives on the same platform. X670/B650 do not face such competition at the moment, and so OEMs hold much more market power in ripping off builders, there would need to be newer chipsets before internal competition can pull prices down to earth on the AMD side.

There is also external competition, if the AM5 Mainboards are not selling well, there will be a price adjustment.

 

[nicalandia]

If you are speaking about DDR4 MB, then you have to factor in reduced GAMING performance.

@Kocicak has a 13900K and is posting performance with DDR4 3400 , at least on CBR23 and Geekbench the numbers seem to align with what you can expect of stock 13900K.

 

[leoneazzurro]

@Kocicak has a 13900K and is posting performance with DDR4 3400 , at least on CBR23 and Geekbench the numbers seem to align with what you can expect of stock 13900K.

There are other non-gaming applications on Alder Lake where the DDR4/DDR5 change returned in non-negligible differences (now I'm too lazy to link, but there are several examples of that). I'd expect that the same will happen with Raptor Lake.

 

[Hans Gruber]

There are other non-gaming applications on Alder Lake where the DDR4/DDR5 change returned in non-negligible differences (now I'm too lazy to link, but there are several examples of that). I'd expect that the same will happen with Raptor Lake.

Cas 16 DDR4 3800mhz is very good. DDR5 latency timings need to come down quite a bit and the clock speeds need to go up. Eventually DDR4 will become obsolete. It will probably take a couple of years for DDR5.

 

[moinmoin]

AM5 platform cost are growing pains the platform has to go through in any case. Any port of Zen 4 to AM4 would just add unnecessary cost for AMD and slow down adoption of AM5 even further which would make matters worse, not better.

 

[LightningZ71]

I know that I sound like a broken record, but, AMD can still keep quite a lot of desktop volume if they choose to take the "relatively simple" route of making an N6 Zen3 CCD that is a drop in for the N7 CCDs on AM4 products. The resulting product will have notable all-core boost improvements, especially for the 8 core CCDs, as well as a modest ST improvement due to the process improvement allowing a few hundred Mhz more single core boost.

It would dramatically improve the 5800x3d part if they could use an N6 CCD with a stacked cache chip. The power efficiency improvements of N6 would allow substantially higher clocks.

 

[maddie]

I know that I sound like a broken record, but, AMD can still keep quite a lot of desktop volume if they choose to take the "relatively simple" route of making an N6 Zen3 CCD that is a drop in for the N7 CCDs on AM4 products. The resulting product will have notable all-core boost improvements, especially for the 8 core CCDs, as well as a modest ST improvement due to the process improvement allowing a few hundred Mhz more single core boost.

It would dramatically improve the 5800x3d part if they could use an N6 CCD with a stacked cache chip. The power efficiency improvements of N6 would allow substantially higher clocks.

I would only suggest they drop that X3D part. Full budget designs. 8 C & 6 C only. Simplify the IO chiplet and package traces. Reduce the MB designs also. No more high end X570 AM4.

Want high performance, go AM5.

 

[mikk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580843377100103681

What a mess.

 

[Timmah!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580843377100103681

What a mess.

Crap, and here i was longing for Zen1 R7000 mobile cpu

 

[jpiniero]

What a mess.

Already been discussed that they were doing this... and it's not Zen 4 so wrong thread.

 

[moinmoin]

I know that I sound like a broken record, but, AMD can still keep quite a lot of desktop volume if they choose to take the "relatively simple" route of making an N6 Zen3 CCD that is a drop in for the N7 CCDs on AM4 products. The resulting product will have notable all-core boost improvements, especially for the 8 core CCDs, as well as a modest ST improvement due to the process improvement allowing a few hundred Mhz more single core boost.

It would dramatically improve the 5800x3d part if they could use an N6 CCD with a stacked cache chip. The power efficiency improvements of N6 would allow substantially higher clocks.

They could easily put Rembrandt on AM4. Supports DDR4 already. As jpiniero correctly pointed out not an option.

What a mess.

I'm just glad the Zen gen is always part of the model number now.

 

[biostud]

Raptor Lake will probably do better because at least you can run it on a cheaper mobo/ram.

The main difference being that it is a dead end while AM5 will support future CPUs. But that will obviously also be the case if you choose an entry level motherboard.

A B550 mATX+32GB DDR4+5800X3D from ~$550
A B650 mATX+32GB DDR5+7700X from ~$690

So currently a premium of $140, split evenly between more expensive motherboard and memory as the 7700X and 5800X3D was the same price at newegg.

 

[Kocicak]

I am not sure if some of you are not overanalyzing the problem, all the problem may be just a little push in the beginning in the wrong direction and things will start moving that direction and changing the course may just take some time and extra work.

For me the off-putting moment was poor availability of motherboards in the beginning and them being grossly overpriced, it felt sometimes that what has been offered in the beginning was overpriced by a third. Such thing most people do not like.

 

[jpiniero]

They could easily put Rembrandt on AM4. Supports DDR4 already.

No it's DDR5 only. The 7530U has to be Barcelo.

 

[moinmoin]

No it's DDR5 only. The 7530U has to be Barcelo.

Hm, I'm seeing a few Rembrandt laptops using DDR4, those may well be wrong data. Double checking right now.

Edit: You are right, the two laptop models are wrongly reported on there. Both use DDR5 indeed. So nevermind, we're not going to see Rembrandt on AM4.

 

[poke01]

Already been discussed that they were doing this... and it's not Zen 4 so wrong thread.

It is zen 4 The 7000 series includes Zen 4. So this does relate Zen 4 if its marketing.