Speculation: Ryzen 4000 series/Zen 3

[maddie]

The only problem is that you are only taking production cost in consideration, it is a common misconception. Renoir being easier or harder to produce than Matisse is just one of many elements to consider.

7nm supply demand being way too high due to console chips is likely to have a bigger impact, but it is just another element.

This whole idea of trying to get an estimated "price per mm2" on 7nm to determine how much it should cost vs the same mm2 on 12nm is wrong, yes it affects costs, but a product price is not determined by cost alone.

He was backing your argument to some degree.

 

[Shivansps]

You are partially right, AMD certainly doesn't price these things in a vacuum. AMD prices them with what they believe that the market FOR THEIR CHIPS will bear. Their 4300 and 4600 APUS are bellpark competitive with Intel processors that are priced similarly. YEs, they loose a little on the CPU side and win a little on the gpu side. Its called a trade off. Where they loose on the CPU side is not a big loss anywhere save for AVX2 loads and one or two other Intel favoring tests. Where they win in GPU loads, they win significantly.

Lets drop the rest shall we?

AMD prices these things to what they belive the market will pay for. We agree there.

But remember that AMD can ask $1000 for the 4300G if they want, its up to the market to validate that price.

So AMD comes forward and prices the 7nm GPUs similar to Nvidia ones, and the market validated that. People here justifing that "it is because 7nm is more expensive". No, it is because the Nvidia options at the same performance are even more expensive. Thats the reason, it has nothing to do with 7nm being more expensive.

What is happening with Renoir? Price increase again? ok whats the other option if you want IGP that can run more than notepad.exe? There is none, other than keep buying Picassos. I have no doubt that the market will validate those prices again, and again, they have nothing to do with 7nm being more expensive.

There is a really long and well documented history of how a price is formed, not sure why people belives 7nm is somehow, a exception, they are not making the chips out of pure gold. So you can see why whole thing of trying to figure out how much a die cost is pointless to me.

Renoir, if those OEM prices are confirmed, is going to be in a really bad place, because the 10100 is cheaper than the 4300G, so does the 10400 vs the 4600G, not sure about the 10700 vs 4700G. So is not only about "ok is better on GPU (the part that got cutdown), but worse on CPU". But again if you need a good IGP there is no choice.

 

[uzzi38]

Lets drop the rest shall we?

AMD prices these things to what they belive the market will pay for. We agree there.

But remember that AMD can ask $1000 for the 4300G if they want, its up to the market to validate that price.

So AMD comes forward and prices the 7nm GPUs similar to Nvidia ones, and the market validated that. People here justifing that "it is because 7nm is more expensive". No, it is because the Nvidia options at the same performance are even more expensive. Thats the reason, it has nothing to do with 7nm being more expensive.

What is happening with Renoir? Price increase again? ok whats the other option if you want IGP that can run more than notepad.exe? There is none, other than keep buying Picassos. I have no doubt that the market will validate those prices again, and again, they have nothing to do with 7nm being more expensive.

There is a really long and well documented history of how a price is formed, not sure why people belives 7nm is somehow, a exception, they are not making the chips out of pure gold.

Renoir, if those OEM prices are confirmed, is going to be in a really bad place, because the 10100 is cheaper than the 4300G, so does the 10400 vs the 4600G, not sure about the 10700 vs 4700G. So is not only about "ok is better on GPU (the part that got cutdown), but worse on CPU". But again if you need a good IGP there is no choice.

Considering AMD is completely supply restrained for Renoir I'd say they're doing a pretty good job in selling the chips out.

Stop overestimating the importance of the DIY/Gaming markets.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Just thinking out loud... Is it possible that there won't be any Vermeer 4-8C products for desktop?

I would expect 6c-8c parts later in the year. It took them awhile to bother with 4c Matisse, so I would expect the same from Vermeer.

I prefer pie.

I don't know why, but I'm glad you dropped in to say that.

 

[Veradun]

Considering AMD is completely supply restrained for Renoir I'd say they're doing a pretty good job in selling the chips out.

Stop overestimating the importance of the DIY/Gaming markets.

They're almost monopolists in those markets, the new focus on OEMs was easily predictable :>

 

[dr1337]

Im really tired of this "7nm is expensive" talk... AMD is able to provide a 7nm 8C Zen2 APU with 36 CU RDNA2 in order to make next gen consoles viable.

But somehow, on desktop, 7nm means every price has to go up. Im sorry but i dont belive that for one second.

Whos even using this argument? 7nm has consistently decreased in price as volume has gone up. The 3600 hits $160 and the 3700x at $280 is a complete bargain. Even the 5600xt is a pretty big die for $260.

 

[Shivansps]

Whos even using this argument? 7nm has consistently decreased in price as volume has gone up. The 3600 hits $160 and the 3700x at $280 is a complete bargain. Even the 5600xt is a pretty big die for $260.

Every time i mention that i belive Renoir to be a little (about $30-40) overpriced (at least with the OEM prices that we know). Someone comes up to say im crazy because 7nm.

 

[Shivansps]

Considering AMD is completely supply restrained for Renoir I'd say they're doing a pretty good job in selling the chips out.

Stop overestimating the importance of the DIY/Gaming markets.

1) Well see once they actually start selling Renoir outside mobile

2) it matters when you have entire countries were the top sold AMD CPU is Picasso. Even if the total volume is low compared to the rest of the world, you dont want to give away market to Intel. But it definately have lower priority, yes.

 

[soresu]

Im really tired of this "7nm is expensive" talk... AMD is able to provide a 7nm 8C Zen2 APU with 36 CU RDNA2 in order to make next gen consoles viable.

It is expensive - but for reasons beyond the actual fabbing of the chip.

The design costs have been rising pretty dramatically with each new node - which is likely part of why they are turning to the likes of AI/ML transistor placement to reduce costs involved (other part being greater performance on average vs human placement).

 

[podspi]

Every time i mention that i belive Renoir to be a little (about $30-40) overpriced (at least with the OEM prices that we know). Someone comes up to say im crazy because 7nm.

I feel like everybody is posting past each other at this point.

Shivansps is correct in that buyers typically don't care what the production costs are, they care about the value the product provides them. 7nm being expensive is not a valid argument to someone arguing a 7nm product is overpriced, because that is a value statement, not a cost statement.

That being said, the set of prices that are possible are restricted by production cost, so this is also true. The more expensive 7nm is, the greater the minimum possible price for a 7nm-based product.

So, I do think there is some space for overlap here, in that a fundamentally bad product may be both overpriced and at or below the minimum profitable price to produce and sell. I doubt Renoir is a fundamentally bad product, though.

I think in this case because they are supply limited, they are willing to give up marketshare in some markets in exchange for a higher price (since they can't make it up in volume anyway).

 

[Hans Gruber]

I do not think people think Ryzen CPU's are overpriced. What has become overpriced are AMD motherboards. When Ryzen was first released a selling point for Ryzen was the pricing of AMD motherboards being considerably lower than Intel motherboards. With the advent of X570 and B550 motherboards, the price advantage has disappeared. If anybody can justify a PCI-4 NVMe drive over a very fast PCI-3 NVMe and justify the extra $100 for PCI gen 4 cards. I am not saying PCI-4 is not a nice feature but it's not worth spending $200 for super fancy benchmark scores.

 

[Makaveli]

If anybody can justify a PCI-4 NVMe drive over a very fast PCI-3 NVMe and justify the extra $100 for PCI gen 4 cards. I am not saying PCI-4 is not a nice feature but it's not worth spending $200 for super fancy benchmark scores.

I see a price difference of $20-$30 not $100 when comparing PCI-4 NVME vs PCI-3 NVME at the 1TB size.

 

[Hans Gruber]

I see a price difference of $20-$30 not $100 when comparing PCI-4 NVME vs PCI-3 NVME at the 1TB size.

I was talking about the price of admission. Not the drive itself but upgrading from a B450/X470 to a B550 or X570 motherboard and the cost of PCI-4 NVMe drive vs. a PCi-E gen 3 drive. $100 may be too low an estimate. The X570 and B550 motherboards are getting way too high in price. AMD has the pricing strategy down on CPU's from introduction to phasing out before the new generation CPU release. Intel never seemed to reduce the price of CPU's. They would simply hold the price and dry up the supply chain for CPU's. Intel still sells previous generation CPU's at full retail price generations behind current generation.

 

[DrMrLordX]

you dont want to give away market to Intel.

That's actually not a problem since Intel has been having problems supplying low-end chips for some time now.

 

[amrnuke]

That's actually not a problem since Intel has been having problems supplying low-end chips for some time now.

Definitely the case early on, and 10100 is low in stock still, but 10400, 10600K are both 10+ at MicroCenter. We still have no 4xxxG chips available sadly.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Definitely the case early on, and 10100 is low in stock still, but 10400, 10600K are both 10+ at MicroCenter. We still have no 4xxxG chips available sadly.

I think the 10400 is probably the lowest-end chip you will find in DiY with any significant stock. As for desktop Renoir, it may be just as MIA depending on demand for those dice in the mobile realm.

 

[Martimus]

I think the 10400 is probably the lowest-end chip you will find in DiY with any significant stock. As for desktop Renoir, it may be just as MIA depending on demand for those dice in the mobile realm.

AMD has no plans currently to sell 4000 APUs to resellers. At the moment they only are providing them for OEM partners like Dell. I don't think they have the stock to sell it to the public.

 

[Rigg]

I do not think people think Ryzen CPU's are overpriced. What has become overpriced are AMD motherboards. When Ryzen was first released a selling point for Ryzen was the pricing of AMD motherboards being considerably lower than Intel motherboards. With the advent of X570 and B550 motherboards, the price advantage has disappeared. If anybody can justify a PCI-4 NVMe drive over a very fast PCI-3 NVMe and justify the extra $100 for PCI gen 4 cards. I am not saying PCI-4 is not a nice feature but it's not worth spending $200 for super fancy benchmark scores.

X570 and B-550 are more expensive but they are generally much better motherboards beyond just PCIE 4. Power delivery, I/O, and PCIE/NVME expansion options are generally much better on the newer boards. The extra PCIE 4 bandwidth can be useful beyond gen 4 SSD's as well. I have a gen 3 NVME and an x4 10Gbe card connected to my x570 chipset for example. That would create a terrible bottleneck on previous chipsets. Using more than one gen 3 NVME on the older boards becomes problematic. If all you need is a gpu and a single gen 3 ssd the older boards are fine. B450 is still being sold. If you need more than 1 NVME drive or PCIE card compromises and bottlenecks abound on 300 and 400 series boards.

 

[Hans Gruber]

X570 and B-550 are more expensive but they are generally much better motherboards beyond just PCIE 4. Power delivery, I/O, and PCIE/NVME expansion options are generally much better on the newer boards. The extra PCIE 4 bandwidth can be useful beyond gen 4 SSD's as well. I have a gen 3 NVME and an x4 10Gbe card connected to my x570 chipset for example. That would create a terrible bottleneck on previous chipsets. Using more than one gen 3 NVME on the older boards becomes problematic. If all you need is a gpu and a single gen 3 ssd the older boards are fine. B450 is still being sold. If you need more than 1 NVME drive or PCIE card compromises and bottlenecks abound on 300 and 400 series boards.

The idea of modern computers. They continually evolve. Some would argue that you do not need to upgrade a PC for 5 or 6 years. If AMD kept the price point of motherboards lower than Intel or the same from generation to generation. It would encourage PC builders to upgrade or build an entirely new PC more often than they normally would. AMD already has their pricing down on their CPU's. My question is why are they not keeping the price point of new generation motherboards where they were when the B350/x370 boards were released.

Case in point. Last year around this time newegg had a AMD RYZEN 7 2700 + ASUS ROG Strix X470-F Gaming $269.98 AR + FS People were complaining about the combo price being a little high. Both the motherboard were current generation at the end of their life cycle. But compare that to the top of the line X570 boards. You don't see combo deals like this anymore. What is worse the higher end ASUS boards are well over $200 and even over $300 just for the motherboard.

The only combos for a motherboard and 3700X are right around $400 or more.

 

[maddie]

The idea of modern computers. They continually evolve. Some would argue that you do not need to upgrade a PC for 5 or 6 years. If AMD kept the price point of motherboards lower than Intel or the same from generation to generation. It would encourage PC builders to upgrade or build an entirely new PC more often than they normally would. AMD already has their pricing down on their CPU's. My question is why are they not keeping the price point of new generation motherboards where they were when the B350/x370 boards were released.

Case in point. Last year around this time newegg had a AMD RYZEN 7 2700 + ASUS ROG Strix X470-F Gaming $269.98 AR + FS People were complaining about the combo price being a little high. Both the motherboard were current generation at the end of their life cycle. But compare that to the top of the line X570 boards. You don't see combo deals like this anymore. What is worse the higher end ASUS boards are well over $200 and even over $300 just for the motherboard.

The only combos for a motherboard and 3700X are right around $400 or more.

AMD is displacing Intel in DIY and everyone wants their margins protected. Can you see the implications for the component manufacturers if ASP drop as AMD sales rise? It sucks for us for sure but we should plan for this reality.

 

[Atari2600]

I do not think people think Ryzen CPU's are overpriced. What has become overpriced are AMD motherboards.

Can't disagree with that.

But then, you have to ask yourself, do you really need an X570? How many people that are very price sensitive actually need PCIe4.0?

 

[Hans Gruber]

Can't disagree with that.

But then, you have to ask yourself, do you really need an X570? How many people that are very price sensitive actually need PCIe4.0?

That was kind of my point. I have an SX8100 which is a very small step below the Adata 8200pro. A high end NVMe Gen 3 on a B350 motherboard. This is still my Ryzen test system. It started with an R3 1200 with 240mm of water cooling. Now a Ryzen 3600. It had Samsung B-die equivalent but an 8GB kit with 4GB sticks instead of 8GB sticks. Did Cas 14 @3200mhz. This was before anybody really knew what B-die was. So I got it cheap.

PCI-4 is a nice feature but is basically a benchmark queen much like PCI-3. NVMe has no latency which makes you system feel snappy. It also has more bandwidth so your system loads much quicker after the windows screen. An SSD takes up to a minute to load everything in Windows 10. A fast NVMe drive can do it within 5-15 seconds.

I have nothing against X570 and B550 boards. My next step will be those or the X670 B650 boards. I was simply pointing out the price increase has been significant.

 

[scannall]

I have nothing against X570 and B550 boards. My next step will be those or the X670 B650 boards. I was simply pointing out the price increase has been significant.

The 5xx boards have more layers, and more expensive signaling components just for the PCIe 4. They cost more to make, so they cost more to buy. The price increase isn't surprising. It's up to the individual to decide their specific needs.

 

[DrMrLordX]

But then, you have to ask yourself, do you really need an X570? How many people that are very price sensitive actually need PCIe4.0?

X570 protects you from sketchy UEFI support for Matisse, and at least for now, it offers you the best chance at support for Vermeer without a crippled/broken UEFI.

 

[Atari2600]

X570 protects you from sketchy UEFI support for Matisse, and at least for now, it offers you the best chance at support for Vermeer without a crippled/broken UEFI.

Yes - so by that there is nothing preventing AMD from ensuring it has a full range of motherboards of various capabilities across the pricing spectrum.

The UEFI bios can be continued, even if it means forking into current and legacy versions due to space issues...
... and the MoBo manufacturer's motivation to continue support.


The last item being the most likely stumbling block.


edit: and is the X570 the last step for AM4 anyway? When we go DDR5 with Zen4 (?), then you'd need a new socket & motherboard anyway.