Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[maddie]

You'd think they would realize the release day reviews that mention the higher price as part of the review score will stick around even after the prices get dropped 3-6+ months later.

Maybe they have some crazy marketing types thinking that consumers will see a price drop from MSRP as an irresistible deal. Get it now, at the new low X% discount price.

 

[PJVol]

So videocardz has revealed the last unknowns:
165W TBP and 2625 Mhz boost clock, 35mhz higher than 6600XT.
Just curious, what will be the 28 CUs part then, rx 7500?

 

[Heartbreaker]

Another 7600 leak. Some minor spec clarifications, 165 W, 2625 MHz boost clock, and 18 Gbps VRAM. Basically a slightly better 6650 XT.

AMD Radeon RX 7600 final specifications leaked, 165W TDP & 2625 MHz boost clock - VideoCardz.com

AMD Radeon RX 7600 to consume more power than predecessor HD Tecnologia have leaked official specs of Radeon RX 7600 graphics card. It appears that Radeon RX 7600, based on RDNA3 architecture, will have higher power requirements than its predecessor. The RX 7600 has 165W TBP (Typical Board...

videocardz.com

 

[coercitiv]

Maybe they have some crazy marketing types thinking that consumers will see a price drop from MSRP as an irresistible deal. Get it now, at the new low X% discount price.

By now I think it's clear what's been happening for a while now: both AMD and Nvidia were frustrated with this "price elasticity" economic mistery that kept messing with their perfect income targets. It's very annoying to maximize your profits when YOU have to guess what THEY are willing to spend. So they came up with a genius idea: let's make it a reverse auction. They price the cards as high as possible, then they let them drop slowly while sale volumes increase accordingly. Genius, genius idea: they can follow the price elasticity curve and extract the perfect income/cost ratio!

So why is that a problem? Let's ask Gru for help:



The problem with unrealistic starting prices is people no longer register your offer as sincere, and price anchoring faces diminishing returns. They learn the asking price is "fake", they know they have to negotiate or wait for a discount. How much of a discount? Well, always bigger than the last time, because the fake prices keep increasing! I think I said this before in another thread: the crowd is a finicky beast. Exhaust the crowd's good will with a stupid price war, and you may end up getting rejected on a decent deal.

Case in point, watch as this VRAM drama may end up hurting sales for fairly priced 8GB cards. Watch as the crowd keeps asking for more of everything because they don't know better. Consumer ignorance works both ways, and educating them may not work because the trust and patience are no longer there.

 

[linkgoron]

What is your definition of a miracle?

RDNA1 from Vega20. Even just N33 actually being some kind of step-up from N23. Being at 6700 is OK I guess, but not very exciting for a new arch with 20% more transistors.

 

[Aapje]

A fixed price during the lifetime of the product also means that it is better to buy early, so you can enjoy it longer before it becomes obsolete. So this encourages a mentality of getting the product at launch, resulting in shortages, which in turn trigger the human scarcity response.

People tend to overvalue scarce items, which for example is also taken advantage of by salesmen and eBay, who can get you to overspend by making it seem like there is a scarce product where overspending it worth it, so you get this 'scarce' item. Even though the product is actually not scarce with a little patience. Changing to a system where prices gradually fall means that people will see the cards as less valuable at launch due to a lack of perceived scarcity. This can permanently affect the price that people are willing to pay.

The lack of a buying rush at launch also interferes with other irrational mechanisms, like our sensitivity to social status. If a bunch of ones friends get a 4070 right at launch, there will often be a feeling that you will have lost a lot of social status in one go if you have an inferior card. So this encourages overspending not so much because of the value of the product to you, but its value as a way to preserve/increase your social status. In contrast, we now see that you may even lose status if you upgrade, due to the perception that you allow yourself to get scammed, which is low status. So the card may actually be perceived as less valuable due to the social cost associated with it.

In general, the current behavior by these companies encourages more rational consumer behavior, which is bad for sales. Classic sales techniques that work really well all tend to focus on exploiting irrational human behaviors (or at least behaviors that are not about a rational assessment of the value of the product. It is actually rational to increase your social status).

 

[KompuKare]

Don't get me wrong, I love the AMD tendancy to reduce prices during as product's lifecycle but then I am a patient buyer.

However, there is another by-product of this which I've seen over and over again in deals sites: when a new AMD product launches, people always compare it to the previous generation or prior at the final fire sale price.

So - unlike Intel or Nvidia - new AMD launches always have to compete with the lowest fire sale price a product had reached.

Fair enough, when AMD was almost bankrupt there was one time they had to write of excess inventory but since then they've been mostly under suppling and have tended to have end of product cycle sales.

 

[jpiniero]

AMD Radeon RX 7600 to launch with $269/€299 MSRP - VideoCardz.com

Radeon RX 7600 to launch at $269 AMD notifies the press about a last-minute price change. The company has now provided a new MSRP for its upcoming Radeon RX 7600 graphics cards. This is information was shared with the press and influencers yesterday, and we have confirmed it with several of...

videocardz.com

AMD did indeed do a last minute price cut to $269. Reviews are tomorrow.

 

[Heartbreaker]

AMD Radeon RX 7600 to launch with $269/€299 MSRP - VideoCardz.com

Radeon RX 7600 to launch at $269 AMD notifies the press about a last-minute price change. The company has now provided a new MSRP for its upcoming Radeon RX 7600 graphics cards. This is information was shared with the press and influencers yesterday, and we have confirmed it with several of...

videocardz.com

AMD did indeed do a last minute price cut to $269. Reviews are tomorrow.

Not a surprise. AMD often seems to wait for NVidia to launch then figures out how to best compete.

 

[PJVol]

let's make it a reverse auction

Wow, it was the quickest one I've seen, starting from $329 and >> $299 >>>>> $269

 

[Heartbreaker]

However, there is another by-product of this which I've seen over and over again in deals sites: when a new AMD product launches, people always compare it to the previous generation or prior at the final fire sale price.

So - unlike Intel or Nvidia - new AMD launches always have to compete with the lowest fire sale price a product had reached.

People do the exact same thing for NVidia. The 4070 has been been endless put down as poor value compared to AMD sale prices on 6800 XT and 6950 XT. They would have been compared to sales on 3080, but those were mostly gone by the time it showed up.

Also I haven't seen much in the way of pricing missteps from AMD. They have consistently priced against their own product, and given better raster and often memory capacity pricing than NVidia.

7900 XT was just the baffling exception, not the norm.

 

[Aapje]

AMD Radeon RX 7600 to launch with $269/€299 MSRP - VideoCardz.com

Radeon RX 7600 to launch at $269 AMD notifies the press about a last-minute price change. The company has now provided a new MSRP for its upcoming Radeon RX 7600 graphics cards. This is information was shared with the press and influencers yesterday, and we have confirmed it with several of...

videocardz.com

AMD did indeed do a last minute price cut to $269. Reviews are tomorrow.

That seems closer to a reasonable price, although they probably will have to drop prices a decent amount during the lifetime. I expect it to go down to $200, at least once the new generation comes.

BTW, 4060 Ti reviews in 6 minutes?

 

[igor_kavinski]

Now price 7700 XT 12GB at $369 and AMD may win some praise, especially if it beats 4060 Ti 16GB, except for the VRAM limited scenarios. Even then, the 4060 Ti may barely make it out alive.

 

[Timorous]

Now price 7700 XT 12GB at $369 and AMD may win some praise, especially if it beats 4060 Ti 16GB, except for the VRAM limited scenarios. Even then, the 4060 Ti may barely make it out alive.

I would make the 7700XT a 16GB card. With 48-54 CUs that clock well it should be in and around 6800XT tier performance and I wouldn't hobble that with 12GB of VRAM.

The vanilla 7700 could be the 12GB part or AMD could do that with the 7600XT. AMD has options there is no doubt.

 

[igor_kavinski]

AMD has options there is no doubt.

Can AMD change the VRAM dynamically, unlike Nvidia who marries the VRAM amount to bus width?

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Can AMD change the VRAM dynamically, unlike Nvidia who marries the VRAM amount to bus width?

What nonsense are you talking about?
There is no such thing. It always depends on bus width and memory module size. At most you can do clamshell.
What @Timorous meant was use N32 and cut out a single MCD, that's all.

 

[Timorous]

Can AMD change the VRAM dynamically, unlike Nvidia who marries the VRAM amount to bus width?

If AMD wanted to do it with N33 they could cut it to a 96 bit bus and give it 12GB of faster ram to make up for the lower bus width.

More likely though is to just use N32 and pair it with 3 MCDs which gives you a 192 bit bus.

 

[igor_kavinski]

If AMD wanted to do it with N33 they could cut it to a 96 bit bus and give it 12GB of faster ram to make up for the lower bus width.

More likely though is to just use N32 and pair it with 3 MCDs which gives you a 192 bit bus.

So AMD has flexibility. Would be a waste if they don't leverage that.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

If AMD wanted to do it with N33 they could cut it to a 96 bit bus and give it 12GB of faster ram to make up for the lower bus width.

More likely though is to just use N32 and pair it with 3 MCDs which gives you a 192 bit bus.

128->96-bit would mean only 75% of the original BW.
18gbps 128-bit -> 288GB/s
24gbps 96-bit -> 288GB/s
Would they put 6 chips of the fastest GDDR6 on a cheap card? Unlikely.

AMD can release a full 60CU N32 chip with 256-bit bus(4*MCDs)
and a cutdown 48CU GPU with 192-bit (3*MCDs)

 

[maddie]

128->96-bit would mean only 75% of the original BW.
18gbps 128-bit -> 288GB/s
24gbps 96-bit -> 288GB/s
Would they put 6 chips of the fastest GDDR6 on a cheap card? Unlikely.

AMD can release a full 60CU N32 chip with 256-bit bus(4*MCDs)
and a cutdown 48CU GPU with 192-bit (3*MCDs)

Yeah, probably cheaper to have clamshell 16GB.

 

[jpiniero]

If AMD wanted to do it with N33 they could cut it to a 96 bit bus and give it 12GB of faster ram to make up for the lower bus width.

More likely though is to just use N32 and pair it with 3 MCDs which gives you a 192 bit bus.

The whole reason N33 exists as a monolithic N6 die is because (even with presumably rosy ASPs) they couldn't make the numbers work with the chiplets.

 

[Heartbreaker]

The whole reason N33 exists as a monolithic N6 die is because (even with presumably rosy ASPs) they couldn't make the numbers work with the chiplets.

You can disable part of the bus without chiplets. They do it all the time on cut down models.

 

[Timorous]

The whole reason N33 exists as a monolithic N6 die is because (even with presumably rosy ASPs) they couldn't make the numbers work with the chiplets.

Not making it work at desired margins Vs not making it work at reasonable and profitable margins are not the same thing.

If AMD want a competitive $350 GPU it needs to be N32 with 12GB of vram and it would need to be 6750XT or faster.

Sure the margin is worse than a $380 N23 GPU, tough, the market moved.

In any event 200mm² of N5 + 108mm² of N7 with 12GB of vram at around 200W is not exactly going to be the most expensive BOM ever and as they work out the packaging kinks with N31 that cost will come down as well.

At the very least if AMD can't make it work at all then they have the consoles to fill that kind of price point with N33 to fill in below for e-sports and the 7900XT and XTX above for the PCMR gamers.

 

[jpiniero]

not making it work at reasonable and profitable margins are not the same thing.

I think we are already there. We might be at the "Cut & Run" phase.

 

[Joe NYC]

N32 will be cheaper than N21 and might be a touch more expensive than N22 but I don't think there will be much in it. N33 is cheaper than N23.

With the current prices AMD could offer an N32 based 7800XT with 6950XT performance at $600 with more margin.

They could offer a $500 7700XT with 6800XT performance which would also have more margin than the current 6800XT parts.

I think even a really cut $380 N32 based 7600XT with 6750XT performance would probably have more margin than the current 6750XT does.

A $280 7500XT with 6650XT-6700 performance would be a similar or better margin than the top N23 perts as well.

So at every tier AMD can improve their margin position Vs current RDNA2 products and gain a lot of mindshare.

Also when you consider the 4070 should really be a 4060 at around $400 it is not like the above stack is fantastic, better than NV but nowhere like offering 6800XT perf at $400.

I agree, except the 7600XT being N32 based, cut down a lot. There is no need to introduce such a product. AMD will likely have excellent yields on N32 dies.

Maybe 7600 as N33 8 GB
7600 XT as N33 16GB