Question Speculation: RDNA2 + CDNA Architectures thread

[uzzi38]

All die sizes are within 5mm^2. The poster here has been right on some things in the past afaik, and to his credit was the first to saying 505mm^2 for Navi21, which other people have backed up. Even still though, take the following with a pich of salt.

Navi21 - 505mm^2

Navi22 - 340mm^2

Navi23 - 240mm^2

Source is the following post: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1588075782.A.C1E.html

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Have you seen an AMD GPU launch the last five years? It's always a massive amount of hype and in many ways a similarly massive amount of let down.
....

I don't understand the reason for your reply.
What I wrote was this:

Seriously I don't understand why some users are so optimistic or so pessimistic about Big Navi.

It's not like I said big navi will win against big Ampere, but It's also impossible the performance will be between RTX3060-3070 when big navi has 80CU..

 

[DDH]

No not all SKUs are for launch at release time no.
Based on other credible leakers saying the PCB design was only completed not long ago and drivers optimization happening I can see that it could be out in October. That fits with the other rumor of October 7.
The main rumor was that AMD didn't release a 5900 XT was due to two main points. They main one was that it had massive heat problems as the voltage was raised past the sweet spot and was therefore cancelled plus RDNA1 still had GCN pedigree so they wanted it to be all RDNA2 with the hopes that the problems seen were brought too a more controllable level (remains to be seen). This change in redesign increased the delivery time (the speculation for November push out). As for launch timing we'll see what comes...

Sounds like total garbage tbh, same as the coretek leak about 10 - 15% performance max over a 2080ti on AMD optimised titles. We all know that is complete nonsense.



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[Konan]

Sounds like total garbage tbh, same as the coretek leak about 10 - 15% performance max over a 2080ti on AMD optimised titles. We all know that is complete nonsense.
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No we do not know that is complete nonsense.
Read up on 110°C on the 5700 XT Thermal junction threshold where it is designed to boost until this temperature. It is substantially hotter than the 95° C which used to be the thermal trip point. As I said there’s quite strong credence to the rumour that a 5900 XT never materialized because of thermal and heat issues resulting in scaling. RDNA2 Is purportedly hoping to correct thermal issues from scaling. Moving from a blower to an axial fan card chassis should help too. The whole reason for delivery of card to market time as pointed out before was delayed because of rumors of thermal issues from scaling. So I hope they have sorted that out.

For the record I think we’ll see 2 x 5700XT performance which at 1080p is about ~33% more than a 2080Ti. Less at 4k. The TDP is going to be higher than most suspect though.
There will be a water cooled version as already Referenced in Linux drivers... Make of that what you want.

I also think what corteks is referencing is the 6800XT 🐟

 

[Panino Manino]

Fury, Vega were the disappointing launches. And rewind 4 years ago the same could have been said for AMD CPU division.

Only the last four years?
During the 9XX days things were starting to get dire for AMD (those precarious pre-Zen days), they could do no more than a "desperate" refresh with the 300 series while Nvidia was getting away with stunts like the 970 (the consumers were partly to blame, but still...).
Then this happened:



Not only Polaris wasn't as good as that presentation was promising, AMD had to overclock and over-volt the boards. No one remembers that? And thing only got worse.
For a brief moment it seemed that the game could change when Doom show what AMD arch could do with Vulkan and low level APIs but Nvidia catched up fast.

It was finally with the last year launch of RDNA that AMD/RTG finally delivered a good GPU since 2012-2013 with no catch.

I think that we all believe that RDNA2 will be good, really good, the problem is that maybe it's already too late.
In some 12 hours we'll start to see the truth.

 

[maddie]

No we do not know that is complete nonsense.
Read up on 110°C on the 5700 XT Thermal junction threshold where it is designed to boost until this temperature. It is substantially hotter than the 95° C which used to be the thermal trip point. As I said there’s quite strong credence to the rumour that a 5900 XT never materialized because of thermal and heat issues resulting in scaling. RDNA2 Is purportedly hoping to correct thermal issues from scaling. Moving from a blower to an axial fan card chassis should help too. The whole reason for delivery of card to market time as pointed out before was delayed because of rumors of thermal issues from scaling. So I hope they have sorted that out.

For the record I think we’ll see 2 x 5700XT performance which at 1080p is about ~33% more than a 2080Ti. Less at 4k. The TDP is going to be higher than most suspect though.
There will be a water cooled version as already Referenced in Linux drivers... Make of that what you want.

I also think what corteks is referencing is the 6800XT 🐟

Don't use different temperature zones for comparison.

 

[DDH]

Only the last four years?
During the 9XX days things were starting to get dire for AMD (those precarious pre-Zen days), they could do no more than a "desperate" refresh with the 300 series while Nvidia was getting away with stunts like the 970 (the consumers were partly to blame, but still...).
Then this happened:

View attachment 28913

Not only Polaris wasn't as good as that presentation was promising, AMD had to overclock and over-volt the boards. No one remembers that? And thing only got worse.
For a brief moment it seemed that the game could change when Doom show what AMD arch could do with Vulkan and low level APIs but Nvidia catched up fast.

It was finally with the last year launch of RDNA that AMD/RTG finally delivered a good GPU since 2012-2013 with no catch.

I think that we all believe that RDNA2 will be good, really good, the problem is that maybe it's already too late.
In some 12 hours we'll start to see the truth.

Too late, there is no too late, never will be. Intel hasn't made discrete GPUs before but they are now entering the market, are they too late?

Too late, should AMD just surrender the GPU business and let NVIDIA have a total monopoly?

Too late is something someone says to help validate their position that NVIDIA are untouchable, to help validate their purchasing decisions.

4 years ago AMD were too late in the cpu market too

People are already speculating about a 30 series super refresh next year. Meanwhile AMD will rolling out rdna3 towards the end of 2021.

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[itsmydamnation]

No we do not know that is complete nonsense.
Read up on 110°C on the 5700 XT Thermal junction threshold where it is designed to boost until this temperature. It is substantially hotter than the 95° C which used to be the thermal trip point.

NO offence you have no idea what your talking about, or your deliberately lying/ not actually comparing the same things.

Currently have Vega 56, 5700, 570

also owned an X800 XT PE that ran at 117c under load for years........

 

[MrTeal]

Only the last four years?
During the 9XX days things were starting to get dire for AMD (those precarious pre-Zen days), they could do no more than a "desperate" refresh with the 300 series while Nvidia was getting away with stunts like the 970 (the consumers were partly to blame, but still...).
Then this happened:


Not only Polaris wasn't as good as that presentation was promising, AMD had to overclock and over-volt the boards. No one remembers that? And thing only got worse.
For a brief moment it seemed that the game could change when Doom show what AMD arch could do with Vulkan and low level APIs but Nvidia catched up fast.

It was finally with the last year launch of RDNA that AMD/RTG finally delivered a good GPU since 2012-2013 with no catch.

I think that we all believe that RDNA2 will be good, really good, the problem is that maybe it's already too late.
In some 12 hours we'll start to see the truth.

Outside the performance issues, there was the massive PR nightmare of the GPUs pulling more than 75W from the PCIe slot with the launch firmware. Even if actually torching MB's happened once in a blue moon, it sure didn't help.

Even before that, the previous gen had its own launch issues. For the 290/290X launch despite Hawaii being an awesome chip, the press around it's crappy stock blower was pretty terrible. The AIBs were great, but the reviews on that stock blower did a lot of damage. Really, the last launch that AMD did really well was Tahiti. I very much hope this one is better and the reference design and drivers are sorted out day 1.

 

[Konan]

NO offence you have no idea what your talking about, or your deliberately lying/ not actually comparing the same things.

Currently have Vega 56, 5700, 570

also owned an X800 XT PE that ran at 117c under load for years........

Well that’s constructive. I was just pointing out a rumour that a 5900 didn’t materialize due to temperature issues when scaled. AMD’s blog last year regarding the thermal junction threshold had quite a bit of press and forum coverage. They changed the measurements areas and basically said 110c was normal. I don’t doubt that and I believe fully that the silicon is able and fine. I was making a point that when everything scales upwards that this speculatively could have given some credence to that rumor with design changes. I also had an X800XT and a GTX480
There has to be a reason why a higher Navi didn’t materialize. I think temperature from additional voltage is quite fair to think of. I hope that they fix it with RDNA2.

 

[Tup3x]

My estimate, Top model with 16GB of ram at $999 will be 10% faster than 3080 10GB at $999 and 3080 20GB at $1199

I'd expect them to trade blows. RTX 3090 is balls to the wall product from NVIDIA and I don't expect AMD to try to compete with it.

 

[DDH]

I'd expect them to trade blows. RTX 3090 is balls to the wall product from NVIDIA and I don't expect AMD to try to compete with it.

I do. Maybe not beat it, maybe 5-10% with in range. For a few hundred less, probably 999 to 1099

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[Stuka87]

I'd expect them to trade blows. RTX 3090 is balls to the wall product from NVIDIA and I don't expect AMD to try to compete with it.

People said the same thing about high end Intel products prior to Ryzen launching.

 

[skline]

The AMD GPU division has been super quiet. I suspect Dr. Su's influence (don't over hype just build solid products) has carried over from the cpu division to the GPU division.

In addition, AMD has clearly been focused on the upcoming console releases.

I have owned various AMD gpus through the years and various Nvidia gpus.

Clearly my GTX2080TI beats my Radeon VII. Heck, my GTX 1080TI slightly edges the Rad 7 out.

Recently, I assembled another computer with parts from builds I had upgraded. I had a Gigabyte X470 Gaming Ultra (entry level mb) 2700x (was replaced by a 3900x in a x570 mb). I had an Nvidia GTX 1050TI gpu and a GTX 780 Classified. Got the "itch" to try one of the AMD 5000 series gpus but the 5700s were too salty $$$.

I bought a Sapphire Pulse 5600XT and WOW was I pleased. Matched it with a nice 24" 75Mhz Freesysnc monitor and game play is great!

If that is AMD's RDNA1 version, I think Big Navi with RDNA 2 will put AMD back into the high end game.

Don't get me wrong, Nvidia will most likely be ahead with the 3090. However, depending upon the price of Big Navi, it might go toe to toe with the 3080. That would be quite an achievement for AMD.

Make no mistake, Nvidia has "the pedal to the metal".

 

[kurosaki]

The AMD GPU division has been super quiet. I suspect Dr. Su's influence (don't over hype just build solid products) has carried over from the cpu division to the GPU division.

In addition, AMD has clearly been focused on the upcoming console releases.

I have owned various AMD gpus through the years and various Nvidia gpus.

Clearly my GTX2080TI beats my Radeon VII. Heck, my GTX 1080TI slightly edges the Rad 7 out.

Recently, I assembled another computer with parts from builds I had upgraded. I had a Gigabyte X470 Gaming Ultra (entry level mb) 2700x (was replaced by a 3900x in a x570 mb). I had an Nvidia GTX 1050TI gpu and a GTX 780 Classified. Got the "itch" to try one of the AMD 5000 series gpus but the 5700s were too salty $$$.

I bought a Sapphire Pulse 5600XT and WOW was I pleased. Matched it with a nice 24" 75Mhz Freesysnc monitor and game play is great!

If that is AMD's RDNA1 version, I think Big Navi with RDNA 2 will put AMD back into the high end game.

Don't get me wrong, Nvidia will most likely be ahead with the 3090. However, depending upon the price of Big Navi, it might go toe to toe with the 3080. That would be quite an achievement for AMD.

Make no mistake, Nvidia has "the pedal to the metal".

Pure speculation here but...

What if Nvidia launches the 3080 and 3090, watches AMD prize their top card right in between those with a clear lead over the 3080. Then releases the 3080Ti and lower the prices..

 

[skline]

kurosaki: good point.

Suppose AMD releases a "Big Navi" fast enough to slightly beat the 3080 and holds back the full one to counter the 3080TI? We know very little about the Big Navi specs.

 

[Glo.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1300440732642148354

https://twitter.com/x/status/1300438803421618179

Kopite spoken on AMD GPU, for once.

 

[Krteq]

Interesting...

 

[A///]

I wouldn't place faith in any of these leakers even if they've been right a handful of times.

 

[Tup3x]

People said the same thing about high end Intel products prior to Ryzen launching.

Not exactly comparable situation.

 

[Glo.]

Lets assume RTX 3090 is 1399$.
Lets assume it has 375W power draw.

Would anyone be interested in Big Navi if it would offer 95% of its performance but consuming 275W of power? I won't speculate on price, tho.

I learned my lesson to not underestimate the greed of companies. Altho AMD appears to be the cooler company here, pricing RX 5600 XT apropriately...

 

[blckgrffn]

Lets assume RTX 3090 is 1399$.
Lets assume it has 375W power draw.

Would anyone be interested in Big Navi if it would offer 95% of its performance but consuming 275W of power? I won't speculate on price, tho.

I learned my lesson to not underestimate the greed of companies. Altho AMD appears to be the cooler company here, pricing RX 5600 XT apropriately...

Let's say you're right and it it's... $999? Surely out of my budget but that is a prime "consumer mindset" type number. Even at 90% of the performance, I am sure there will be reviews that heavily criticize the amount of extra cooling the 375W card requires to reach it's peak performance (which surely you want after dropping that much money) and those reviews are likely to conclude (if the AMD cooler is solid) that while the 3090 is the one night stand card, they AMD card is the one you actually marry

If there is even a whiff of that, what a sea change it would be. IMO. I hope it is that way, just for competition sake.

 

[Konan]

Lets assume RTX 3090 is 1399$.
Lets assume it has 375W power draw.

Would anyone be interested in Big Navi if it would offer 95% of its performance but consuming 275W of power? I won't speculate on price, tho.

I learned my lesson to not underestimate the greed of companies. Altho AMD appears to be the cooler company here, pricing RX 5600 XT apropriately...

What about if the top Big Navi was 350W and only 25-30% faster than a 2080Ti?

 

[Glo.]

What about if the top Big Navi was 350W and only 25-30% faster than a 2080Ti?

Based on what?

 

[Mopetar]

I don't understand the reason for your reply.
What I wrote was this:

I suppose I Could have explained my reasoning a little better. Some people are being pessimistic because the last five years have been a string of disappointments and people are somewhat stuck in the mindset that AMD tops out around xx70 performance when comparing to NVidia.

Some people are overly optimistic because that's how they always are. Go back to any AMD launch and there's always a least one person talking about a GeForce killer that will take any leak no matter how implausible as truth handed down directly from god.

I guess the point was that it does feel like there's not a lot of room in the middle or it doesn't seem that way. Either you're in camp "2080 Ti Killer" or you're in camp "Vega Repeat"

 

[Stuka87]

I suppose I Could have explained my reasoning a little better. Some people are being pessimistic because the last five years have been a string of disappointments and people are somewhat stuck in the mindset that AMD tops out around xx70 performance when comparing to NVidia.

Some people are overly optimistic because that's how they always are. Go back to any AMD launch and there's always a least one person talking about a GeForce killer that will take any leak no matter how implausible as truth handed down directly from god.

There was typically a bunch of AMD marketing hype during those as well, which was often misleading. Thus far, AMD has been silent. Even on the leak side of things there has not been much in comparison to nVidia.