Specs for a PC in the year 2020

[dave_the_nerd]

Well, 16 years ago, I had a 1-core, 233MHz computer with 128MB of RAM and 4GB of storage.

8 years ago I had a 1-core, 2 GHz computer with 1GB of dual-channel RAM and 120GB of storage. It wasn't top of the line at the time.

Today, I have a 4-core, 2.4GHz computer with 6GB of dual-channel RAM and 410GB of storage. (although I've got about 4TB of NAS for the home network - my data storage requirements have grown a lot faster than my DAS requirements.) It's also not top of the line.

So in another 8 years, I'll probably have a 6/8 core, ~4GHz computer with 32GB of RAM and a couple TB of built-in storage (with probably 20TB or so networked.) But it probably won't be top of the line then either.

But I'll keep it tidy and virus-free, and not install bloatware, so people will still be amazed by how fast it is even if their machines are better.

 

[dave_the_nerd]

Everyone will have high speed wireless.

Only if the .gov gets a lot tougher with the telecoms.

I don't see it happening. My grandparents have been waiting 10 years for DSL.

 

[SphinxnihpS]

Didn't anyone in the world see, The Bionic Woman, besides me and Mike Myers?

 

[ultimatebob]

lolwut

There won't be dial up in 2020!

Everyone will have high speed wireless.

I doubt it. Even now there are big sections of the country that still do not have decent wireless voice coverage let alone data.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Yeah there's a big piece of equipment at work (Telco CO) for dialup. Those lights are blinking quite a lot, it must mean there's still people using it. But seriously, there actually is quite a lot of dialup users out there.

ISPs need to stop being greedy and just roll out fiber to each home, even remote areas, then they could feed any service they want, just need the right equipment at both ends.

 

[jpiniero]

ISPs need to stop being greedy and just roll out fiber to each home, even remote areas, then they could feed any service they want, just need the right equipment at both ends.

Verizon took a huge bath on FiOS, and they cherry picked. I doubt you will see anyone (in the US) put any more investment into wired now, especially with the future of cable TV in question.

Well, unless you are Google and you can scheme your way into having others pay the costs...

 

[Kaido]

Well, the Google Glasses just hit the FCC:

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/...cc-first-diagram-revealed-20130201-2doqm.html

In areas that get 4G, I've seen anywhere from 40 to 70 megs down on cell phones. OnLive (streaming game company) has a demo of OnLive Desktop, which lets you basically RDP into a Windows session from any device:

http://desktop.onlive.com/

Stuff like Citrix HDX is pretty awesome, and Teradici has demoed a realtime CAD session from New York to London with awesome results:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuEhGzoo0lQ

So - it's 2013 now, 2020 is only 7 years from now. I don't foresee flying cars, but I do foresee some really neat changes that could possibly happen. The big key would be getting nationwide high-speed wireless access. 4G is already pretty fast, and home routers with 802.11ac are faster than Gigabit wire now (in theory, 1.3 Gbps iirc). So now you have fast data access wherever you go, you have Google Glasses that live on your face, and you have an OnLive Desktop session coupled with something like Amazon's cloud crunching for doing HD video editing, CAD, gaming, anything that requires heavy-lifting.

Netflix and Youtube have teamed up to create DIAL, which is an open-source alternative to Apple's Airplay, which lets you stream music, photos, movies, and your computer screen to a receiver (such as an AppleTV box connected to an HDTV), so in the future you could flick you Google Glasses session to the nearest 4K-resolution OLED TV and watch a movie, play a game, or do something creative with CAD or video:

http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/dial-netflix-youtube/

Basically I see us going back to the server/dumb terminal system. It was mentioned earlier - we've sort of plateau'd in desktop technology. I just got my mom a speedy fast 15" laptop with a 2.4ghz dual-core process, 4 gigs of RAM, and 500-gig hard drive for $329 at Best Buy. And it's more than fast enough for what she does. If you're into something like 3D graphics and modeling, you can just rent out a cloud server to do all the work for you:

http://www.ranchcomputing.com/

Even the interfaces are getting better - Apple has Siri, Google lets you do voice searches right on their homepage or through their great apps, Leap has amazing motion-sensing technology like Kinect, etc. Check out this video for SwiftKey Flow for text input:

http://www.swiftkey.net/flow/

Or the Leap ultra-accurate multi-finger motion control sensor: (being built into upcoming laptops, btw)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYgsAMKLu7s

The higher-end touchscreens support up to like 50 individual points now as well. We're starting to see curved displays on the new OLED displays.

I think we'll get OLED screens in laptops, but I don't know how much thinner than an Ultrabook we really want to go, because then the keys won't be comfortable to type on. They've already demoed shape-shifting screens, however:

http://www.engadget.com/2012/06/06/tactus-technology-prototype-android-tablet-shows-off-shapeshifti/

So something with a great screen, ultra-thin, awesome battery life, fast Internet-anywhere wireless connection so you can dump big data to the cloud for processing, etc.

I think a lot of the reasons that Apple is leading in the mobile arena is that they're focusing on usability, which is something that I think will get even bigger - the average joe just wants something they can use, not have to figure out. No one I work with has a clue how to use Windows 8. I see a lot of people struggling with the Android GUI. But the iPhone/iPad stuff has a really simple push-button type of interface that people can figure out pretty easily, so hopefully we'll see that more in other areas, like the Nest thermostat:

http://www.nest.com/

I'm hoping we all have smarthome stuff by 2020 and that it's cheap and available at Home Depot :biggrin: But getting back on topic, we've started to roll out the Intel NUC platform at work - a 4" x 4" computer with an i3 CPU, up to 16 gigs of RAM, and up to a 480gb SSD (i5 and i7 models due in April). Intel has already announced that they're getting out of the motherboard business and will only be selling the NUC computers (in addition to CPU's and whatnot). A lot of my buddies have gotten those little Android-on-a-stick systems that act as "cloud receivers" for RDP, Netflix, basic Internet, etc.:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHtQvGyV6Mk

Haswell will eventually be 14nm, so we'll probably have a Core-i357 on a stick by 2020, haha. I think we'll see a lot of all-in-one computers with OLED screens, integrated computers, and Leap-style motion controllers too.

So much cool stuff coming out!

 

[VirtualLarry]

(Edit: I am posting this, because the original thread was from 2013, making predictions about PC specs in 2020. Since it is currently late 2020, I thought that it was appropriate to reply to the thread, seeing as how it was necro-spam-revived already.)

5nm core processes on doped silicon
RAM and storage will merge

Well, those things have happened. Kind of. Apple's CPUs are now being produced on TSMC's 5nm process. The most popular desktop CPUs are now AMD's Ryzen (Zen2) CPUs, with Zen3 just announced. Both of those are on TSMC's 7nm process (Zen3 too?).
Intel's Optane DIMMs, are basically phase-change memory with a RAM interface, and are designed to be plugged into servers along with traditional DRAM DIMMs.

8 REAL cores (most 8 core CPUs are actually 4 core with hyperthreading or whatever AMD calls their version) at maybe 4Ghz.
Perhaps even 16 cores.
128GB of ram but possible to go higher
6TB spindle drives will available, but chances are we'll be looking at 1TB SSDs as being standard and spindle drives only for cheap mass storage or server applications that require unlimited IO cycles in a raid situation.

Though things have stagnated, and with tablets and phones taking over, it's hard to tell if the PC will even still be here at the consumer level, by then.

I think @Red Squirrel gets the prize here for coming the closest.

Right now, the current Zen2-arch CPUs (Ryzen 3000 series) come in up to 16 real cores, with 32 threads, on the desktop AM4 socket. Zen3 should have similar core configs. Of course, there's HEDT, with 64 real cores, and 128 threads, I believe. (Four "chiplets") on TRx4 / ThreadRipper.

Current AMD AM4 mobos will take up to 32GB x 4 DIMMs, so yes, 128GB for the consumer desktop AM4 platform. TRx4 has 8 DIMM slots, so twice that for ThreadRipper.

6TB spindle drives, well, they now have (if you can pay for them) 18TB 3.5" SATA HDDs.

But 1TB SSDs are fairly common these days, around $75 for the cheapest SATA 1TB HDD. Not that far off from the price of a WD Black 1TB HDD, and probably better-performing.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Was going to say @Red Squirrel was nearly dead accurate.

@Kaido maybe two years after your comment I was at a meeting and a guy showed up with google glass to record it.
EVERYONE was like turn that f-ing thing off. Cool product but had little use and nobody wants to be recorded like that. Reminds me of this comic, the smart people who designed google glass just don’t understand social norms.



Your smart home prediction is getting there I’m using my Parents as the example they have a “smart” garage door opener. Sounds dumb but it is pretty useful for them.
I have a “smart” water heater...
Plus a nest

stick computing is here but it’s more like fire sticks and Roku sticks and so on. There are more than I would have expected. While I knew TV would stream, I had no idea there would be so many options but some content would be stubbornly locked.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I think cell phone technology is about to his a plateau due to the one thing they can't get around in that form factor - Heat. Already my cell phone can get uncomfortably hot if I do anything that is processor intensive for more then a few minutes, try to shove much more power into that tiny of a case and heat is going to be a real problem.

yeah sort of but not completely. 2020 problem appears to be what do you do with all that power when 99% of people only want sms, a nice screen, Facebook or twitter or whatever social media app and google search.
The guy you were responding to about mobile devices acting like a desktop when plugged in did call it. Samsung has had a few devices that could do this but nobody was interested. Better said nobody was interested in spending the extra money for a docking station.

 

[JEDI]

(Edit: I am posting this, because the original thread was from 2013, making predictions about PC specs in 2020. Since it is currently late 2020, I thought that it was appropriate to reply to the thread, seeing as how it was necro-spam-revived already.)


Well, those things have happened. Kind of. Apple's CPUs are now being produced on TSMC's 5nm process. The most popular desktop CPUs are now AMD's Ryzen (Zen2) CPUs, with Zen3 just announced. Both of those are on TSMC's 7nm process (Zen3 too?).
Intel's Optane DIMMs, are basically phase-change memory with a RAM interface, and are designed to be plugged into servers along with traditional DRAM DIMMs.


I think @Red Squirrel gets the prize here for coming the closest.

Right now, the current Zen2-arch CPUs (Ryzen 3000 series) come in up to 16 real cores, with 32 threads, on the desktop AM4 socket. Zen3 should have similar core configs. Of course, there's HEDT, with 64 real cores, and 128 threads, I believe. (Four "chiplets") on TRx4 / ThreadRipper.

Current AMD AM4 mobos will take up to 32GB x 4 DIMMs, so yes, 128GB for the consumer desktop AM4 platform. TRx4 has 8 DIMM slots, so twice that for ThreadRipper.

6TB spindle drives, well, they now have (if you can pay for them) 18TB 3.5" SATA HDDs.

But 1TB SSDs are fairly common these days, around $75 for the cheapest SATA 1TB HDD. Not that far off from the price of a WD Black 1TB HDD, and probably better-performing.

great bump!

the OP asked 'What do you think will be the specs for an average PC in the year 2020?'

for me, today's avg non-gamer new pc specs are quad core Ryzen 4500/Intel 10th gen, 8 gigs ram, 512gig ssd.

of course, for mom/dad that only uses their pc to surf the web, email, and maybe light word/excel, any dual core from 2010 with 4gigs ram and almost any size sata hard drive would do.

 

[SMOGZINN]

yeah sort of but not completely. 2020 problem appears to be what do you do with all that power when 99% of people only want sms, a nice screen, Facebook or twitter or whatever social media app and google search.
The guy you were responding to about mobile devices acting like a desktop when plugged in did call it. Samsung has had a few devices that could do this but nobody was interested. Better said nobody was interested in spending the extra money for a docking station.

I agree. This thread is quite a blast from the past!

I am amazed at how powerful cell phones have become. I have actually used a Pixel 3 as a desktop replacement for emergency use this year. With a BT Keyboard and a HDMI adapter it can be plugged into a monitor or TV and used fairly well to do a lot of light computing.

 

[ultimatebob]

We obviously need to do a 2030 thread for this!

 

[Red Squirrel]

Ha it's cool to see I was somewhat close. I was off on storage as spindle drives have gotten way higher, though for a typical PC, it probably is more common to see a 1TB SSD so I was surprisingly dead on there.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Ha it's cool to see I was somewhat close. I was off on storage as spindle drives have gotten way higher, though for a typical PC, it probably is more common to see a 1TB SSD so I was surprisingly dead on there.

I think that you should win a CoolCoin. What say ye, @ultimatebob ?

 

[ultimatebob]

I think that you should win a CoolCoin. What say ye, @ultimatebob ?

I'll tell ya what... the person who gets the closest approximation as to what a 2030 mid-range gaming rig will be wins some Coolcoin come January 2030. That's assuming that the Ethereum network that it runs on still exists by then.

 

[ElFenix]

@dave_the_nerd is pretty close as well

 

[rh71]

Nobody predicted Covid-19. Not impressed.

 

[dave_the_nerd]

Only if the .gov gets a lot tougher with the telecoms.

I don't see it happening. My grandparents have been waiting 10 years for DSL.

Update. My grandparents have DSL now, but cell signal in their neighborhood still sucks. (Voice calls are fine but data is a cruel joke.)

 

[VirtualLarry]

Wow. DSL.

 

[Craig234]

Nobody predicted Covid-19. Not impressed.

Many did. Just not here.

 

[gorobei]

sadly intel's problems with 10nm and probable delay of 7nm along with corporate stagnation really lowered the trajectory of core counts and clock speed.

amds chiplets and active interposers paradigm should put us closer to 64core consumer mainstream base configuration in 2030. with a possible 128 or 256 core system for prosumer enthusiasts.

 

[JEDI]

hopefully the op (@Arcadio) sees this thread and be amazed

 

[EliteRetard]

I doubt that many people will be buying desktops in 2020.

Instead, I'm imagining the average laptop will be something with a:

A 14" 4K resolution touch screen that is convertible to a tablet form factor
"Windows 10" - which will still suck. Sadly, most of the desktop Linux distributions will probably still suck as well.
A 4 GHz 8 core processor that will use about 10 watts of power at max speed
Lithium Ion batteries that still aren't much better than today... Seriously, it's been over a decade since we've had any real breakthroughs in battery technology that actually made it out of the lab and into production
32 GB of memory
A 3 TB hard drive or 1 TB SSD
Integrated graphics that is about twice as powerful as 2 GeForce 680's in SLI.... yet it still won't be good enough to play the latest version of Crysis.

This is actually pretty close as well. Only took a few seconds to find a laptop that was close:

Are you a human?

www.newegg.com

14" touchscreen convertible (4k on some units)
Win 10
~4GHz 8 core 15w Small Miss
lithium batteries that still aren't much better
20GB RAM (32GB on some units)
1TB SSD (still no 7-9mm 3-4TB HDD) Small Miss
IGP probably equal to 1x GTX680 Big Miss

 

[EliteRetard]

Actually looks like quite a few good calls back in the day for this thread...