Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[Farang]

Read the link, that 5.8% vs 3.3% were for the exact same 110 polls. Apples for apples. Silver is not a pollster, he is a statistician - stop conflating things. He aggregates the polls. Rasmussen is constantly Republican biased when compared to the aggregate this year, so they have not shown any improvement since last cycle. Gallop has the same problem, but they are falling in line now - they don't want to be cause with bogus numbers when the election hits.

I would dispute that Gallup has been right-leaning.. they've just been more erratic. They had Obama +7 or something in September when others were more 2-4

 

[buckshot24]

Read the link, that 5.8% vs 3.3% were for the exact same 110 polls. Apples for apples.

I'm comparing to the average, not the best. Even if we assume that Rasmussen is still biased against against Democrats and favors Republicans there are polls that agree with his.

Silver is not a pollster, he is a statistician - stop conflating things.

And his model predicted 15-18 fewer GOP seat pickups than what happened. His model was wrong quite a bit. It's a midterm and it's easier to get it wrong in these kinds of races so I won't hold it against him too much. Although, I think some of that leeway should be granted to Rasmussen as well.

He aggregates the polls.

I know, he even had Rasmussen's biased data and his model was way off. At least his 10-18-2010 prediction was.

Rasmussen is constantly Republican biased when compared to the aggregate this year, so they have not shown any improvement since last cycle. Gallop has the same problem, but they are falling in line now - they don't want to be cause with bogus numbers when the election hits.

So you're saying Gallup is manipulating their numbers. Do you have any proof of this?

NBC/Marist are favoring Democrats this year, are you throwing out their results as you seem to be with Rasmussen?

 

[sportage]

Does anyone think this could be a rerun of 2000?
Especially with the electoral vote?
269 vs 269.
And the congressional house decides.
And what about the VP?
I think the senate decides the VP.

 

[jpeyton]

Does anyone think this could be a rerun of 2000?

No, thankfully it won't.

Right now, Obama has 253 electoral votes locked down.

On election night, VA, OH, NH, IA, FL and CO will be up for play.

Obama only needs OH to win it, and Romney has never held the lead in the OH polls once this year.

If by some miracle Romney wins OH, Obama can still win a combination of 5 other states to get his 17 electoral votes. He could win FL, VA+NH, VA+IA, VA+CO, etc. You get the picture. Romney's path without OH requires a sweep of all six swing states, plus flipping another state that Obama has locked down (NV or WI maybe, even though he's never held the polling lead once in those states so far this year).

 

[Blackjack200]

No, thankfully it won't.

Right now, Obama has 253 electoral votes locked down.

On election night, VA, OH, NH, IA, FL and CO will be up for play.

Obama only needs OH to win it, and Romney has never held the lead in the OH polls once this year.

If by some miracle Romney wins OH, Obama can still win a combination of 5 other states to get his 17 electoral votes. He could win FL, VA+NH, VA+IA, VA+CO, etc. You get the picture. Romney's path without OH is requires a sweep of all six swing states, plus flipping another state that Obama has locked down (NV or WI maybe, even though he's never held the polling lead once in those states so far this year).

Man I would just love it if Obama can somehow hang on and win Florida. Put us all to bed early.

 

[First]

^ Dems really aren't giving up FL, as the demographics have gotten significantly better than any state since 2008, with a huge ad buy and even better early voting this year than 2008. I think FL has just as much potential to be as razor thin as 2000. If you look just at the poll splits over the last 6 months, it's been almost identically half blue half red.

 

[Farang]

Man I would just love it if Obama can somehow hang on and win Florida. Put us all to bed early.

More likely VA puts you to bed early, if FL is a tossup it probably won't be called too quickly

 

[jpeyton]

^ Dems really aren't giving up FL, as the demographics have gotten significantly better than any state since 2008, with a huge ad buy and even better early voting this year than 2008. I think FL has just as much potential to be as razor thin as 2000. If you look just at the poll splits over the last 6 months, it's been almost identically half blue half red.

Dems aren't giving up any state. And unfortunately for Romney, it seems the GOP hasn't learned anything about ground game and GOTV since 2008 when Obama cleaned McCain's clock.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-game-that-could-put-him-over-the-top/264031/

Obama's ground game was already light years ahead of the best Republican efforts in 2008, and his re-election campaign spent the last four years refining and modernizing it. Romney's ground game is non-existent; he's relying on the RNC to mobilize local support, mainly because Romney had to wait until he was the GOP front runner for the nomination before he could even get going.

That's the advantage the incumbent has. Obama purchased major TV ad blocks in battleground states at the beginning of the year, paying a quarter of the current going rate which Romney's campaign has to pay for the same block. Even though the fundraising totals are closer this year between the parties, Obama is airing far more ads because he had the luxury of planning his re-election strategy for 4 years.

Obama has three times as many field offices as Romney in Ohio, and most of Romney's offices are shared or dominated by local election candidates. Obama also had the luxury of recycling resources and manpower he had already established in 2008, and building on top of that to increase his ground game numbers over the last election. Romney had to start more or less from scratch.

 

[buckshot24]

^ Dems really aren't giving up FL, as the demographics have gotten significantly better than any state since 2008, with a huge ad buy and even better early voting this year than 2008. I think FL has just as much potential to be as razor thin as 2000. If you look just at the poll splits over the last 6 months, it's been almost identically half blue half red.

How does a May poll have any relevance?

There have been 14 October polls (according to RCP) and Romney is up in 11 of them.

 

[buckshot24]

Dems aren't giving up any state.

They are giving up North Carolina.

 

[umbrella39]

How long will it be before you log back into this account after Romney's concession speech? See you again in 2016?

 

[Charles Kozierok]

NC is utterly irrelevant and always has been.

 

[buckshot24]

NC is utterly irrelevant and always has been.

Obama recently pulled out and they had their convention there so they didn't think it was irrelevant.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Obama recently pulled out and they had their convention there so they didn't think it was irrelevant.

Conventions are often longer-term ploys and there are strategic reasons to contest states like NC. There is zero chance of that state being the tipping point -- if Obama wins NC, it's a landslide.

 

[jpeyton]

Obama recently pulled out and they had their convention there so they didn't think it was irrelevant.

I'm glad he pulled out, it's not a battleground state, and he can redirect his money and resources to crushing Romney in OH instead.

 

[buckshot24]

Conventions are often longer-term ploys and there are strategic reasons to contest states like NC. There is zero chance of that state being the tipping point -- if Obama wins NC, it's a landslide.

That is fine and well but it is factually correct to say that Obama recently gave up on the state. That's all. JP said that they weren't giving up on any states, which was incorrect.

They were trying to compete and they gave up, period. Why the hell can't you just admit that instead of saying it is meaningless?

 

[buckshot24]

How long will it be before you log back into this account after Romney's concession speech? See you again in 2016?

Win lose or draw I'll be back after the election. I won't spend nearly the amount of time I am now though.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

They were trying to compete and they gave up, period. Why the hell can't you just admit that instead of saying it is meaningless?

As I already said, you don't know that they were trying to compete. Campaigns often spend money in states for strategic reasons.

The Obama campaign has denied pulling out of NC.

The larger point is that it doesn't matter.

 

[randomrogue]

There was a semi-interesting article on 538 that said that if you compare his site to others he would be considered Romney leaning. The reason being that he gives Obama a 70% chance of winning while other sites are above 90%.

 

[buckshot24]

As I already said, you don't know that they were trying to compete. Campaigns often spend money in states for strategic reasons.

The Obama campaign has denied pulling out of NC.

The larger point is that it doesn't matter.

Who gives a shit if they were trying to win it or not. They are moving out of North Carolina.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

They are moving out of North Carolina.

Evidence?

PPP had a poll out today showing them tied. I think it's probably an outlier, but it's not like the state is out of reach for Obama.

 

[zinfamous]

I'm glad he pulled out, it's not a battleground state, and he can redirect his money and resources to crushing Romney in OH instead.

That makes me sad. I hate to see my home state revert to its modern status of electing conservatards over and over and over again.

The heavy economic and educational areas of that state are decidedly democratic leaning, but as with the rest of the country, we are destined to live under the large thumb of ignorant, impoverished rednecks that surround us.

 

[zinfamous]

NC is utterly irrelevant and always has been.

Hey, screw you, pal!

 

[buckshot24]

Evidence?

PPP had a poll out today showing them tied. I think it's probably an outlier, but it's not like the state is out of reach for Obama.

They haven't announced it, you're right. Begala said they were giving it up and the Obama campaign denies that.

 

[buckshot24]

That makes me sad. I hate to see my home state revert to its modern status of electing conservatards over and over and over again.

The heavy economic and educational areas of that state are decidedly democratic leaning, but as with the rest of the country, we are destined to live under the large thumb of ignorant, impoverished rednecks that surround us.

We should trade states.