Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[buckshot24]

OH gawd....a White Sox fan.


that's not a bad thing in itself...but any reference to "The Hawk" sure is. D:

haha, actually a Tigers fan. I had no idea about the whitesox connection.

 

[First]

This may be the most pathetic attempt at a put down I've ever seen. In fact I wonder how you put your shoes on in the morning without falling over.

This was just a lame put-down. Stick to something you're good at, like digging ditches or picking up trash on freeways.

The Electoral map has changed once that "stale" data has been replaced with "fresh" data. It's moving towards a Romney victory, not away from it. If that is not the case then please present your data.

lol, as if you give a shit about numbers. You didn't care about polls before when Romney was being taken to the woodshed and now 8-9 days of polling post-debate and suddenly you take polls seriously.

But here's a updated repost of mine, just for you, kid:

Data has already been presented quite conclusively via InTrade, 538, Vegas bookies here, here and here with all saying he has between 60% to just under 2/3rds chance at winning on Nov. 6th, which is slightly better than his early-to-mid-September odds. So people who have to bet actual money and statisticians all say the same thing, without exception. All of them have perfect records, btw.

The Senate race is far worse for Repubs, showing state solidity despite the effects of national movement. See here. As is the House races, which still point to 5-8 seat gains for Dems.

Facts are a bitch.

 

[umbrella39]

haha, actually a Tigers fan. I had no idea about the whitesox connection.

Don't start predicting the Tigers / Yankees series... Don't be jinxing Cabrera's bat!

 

[buckshot24]

This was just a lame put-down. Stick to something you're good at, like digging ditches or picking up trash on freeways.

I most likely make at least 4 times as much as you do.

lol, as if you give a shit about numbers. You didn't care about polls before when Romney was being taken to the woodshed and now 8-9 days of polling post-debate and suddenly you take polls seriously.

When you get pulled over for speeding in your 99 Impala do you tell the cop that you were going 25 MPH 20 seconds ago? He would tell you that it wasn't relevant. What is relevant is what happens on Nov 6. Who gives a shit what the polls said one month ago? Cling to that libtard all you want but your man is going out.

Come November 6th

First: "But, ....,But, the polls, ...., the pollss said Obama was W1ninng

Votes are what count moron, not polls 2 months out from an election.

 

[buckshot24]

Don't start predicting the Tigers / Yankees series... Don't be jinxing Cabrera's bat!

I wouldn't have been surprised if they got swept by Oakland or if they go all the way. This team is just weird.

 

[First]

I most likely make at least 4 times as much as you do.

Your mommy's trust doesn't count, kid.

When you get pulled over for speeding in your 99 Impala do you tell the cop that you were going 25 MPH 20 seconds ago? He would tell you that it wasn't relevant. What is relevant is what happens on Nov 6. Who gives a shit what the polls said one month ago? Cling to that libtard all you want but your man is going out.

lol. I predicted that wimp-out all the way didn't I. Not even a lame attempt to rebut either statistics or trading markets. You know what they say about losers who can't do math.

Come November 6th

First: "But, ....,But, the polls, ...., the pollss said Obama was W1ninng

Votes are what count moron, not polls 2 months out from an election.

lol, then wtf are you pimping polls for, fool.

Kids these days.

 

[First]

Poll: Obama up 5 points in Ohio

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.

One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.

One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'

In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel 49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37% of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Mandel may have more to worry about in 2014- he trails a generic Democrat 40-39 for reelection as State Treasurer. This campaign- at least to date- has been pretty damaging to his image.

Ohio continues to be terrible news for Romney, with early voting killing him and the debate apparently having no impact, be it due to it generally not mattering and/or the VP debate blunting gains.

 

[zinfamous]

damn it! Now the pole is rigged again!

><

 

[buckshot24]

Ohio continues to be terrible news for Romney, with early voting killing him and the debate apparently having no impact, be it due to it generally not mattering and/or the VP debate blunting gains.

RCP has an average of 1.3 in favor of Obama right now. (although it doesn't look like this one is in that average). If Romney loses Ohio it makes it tough but not impossible.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Romney would need to win Virginia (Looking more likely, Suffolk stopped polling there saying Romney was going to win), Florida (same deal with Suffolk)

He'd be at 257 without Ohio...

He's up in New Hampshire and assuming he wins another 4 EC votes. Now 261

Wisconsin could put him over the top and it looks tight there.

This is without Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan

If he gets Nevada and Iowa he won't need wisconsin. If he gets Pennsylvania he won't need New Hampshire or Wisconsin.

Plenty of pathways to 270 even if he loses Ohio.

 

[IGBT]

The obama does best on college campuses where the crowd is captured in school, not yet competing for jobs, and are still supported and sheltered by mom and dad. People who pay their own way are showing up less and less at the obama gatherings. The DNC has been paying SEIU bots to show up and "fill" the panaorama for the cameras. The thrill is gone. Reality has set in. Even the guilty whites are comming out of the obama stupor.

 

[First]

RCP has an average of 1.3 in favor of Obama right now. (although it doesn't look like this one is in that average). If Romney loses Ohio it makes it tough but not impossible.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Romney would need to win Virginia (Looking more likely, Suffolk stopped polling there saying Romney was going to win), Florida (same deal with Suffolk)

He'd be at 257 without Ohio...

He's up in New Hampshire and assuming he wins another 4 EC votes. Now 261

Wisconsin could put him over the top and it looks tight there.

This is without Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan

If he gets Nevada and Iowa he won't need wisconsin. If he gets Pennsylvania he won't need New Hampshire or Wisconsin.

Plenty of pathways to 270 even if he loses Ohio.

Haha, wut? Romney is as likely to win Wisconsin as Obama is North Carolina. That's a wash, well actually a 5 point electoral college advantage to Obama. Fact is Obama is extraordinarily likely to win Wisconsin; he hasn't trailed in a single poll in Wisconsin since the debate, so we know that wasn't a game changer there, and since you're *suddenly* so found of polling %'s, he's already at 50% in Wisconsin. He's far more likely to win Wisconsin based on the polls than Romney is to win any toss-up state on RCP's electoral map, and I mean not even ONE swing state, if you're applying your polling reasoning logically for both candidates (wait, look who I'm talking to). Because based on the same reasoning you're using for Wisconsin, you can't possibly give Florida or Virginia to Romney based on the same...exact...logic. One polling firm that stops polling in Virginia and Florida quite literally means nada, zilch, nichts. Besides, Obama is dead even in Virgina, up about half a point despite over a full week of bad press after a bad performance at the debate. That state is nowhere near over.

Which means Romney's likely dead in the water. Beyond likely, barring Obama imploding at one or both subsequent debates.

 

[buckshot24]

Yeah, if Romney loses Ohio it makes it much harder for him to win, no shit.

Fact is Obama is extraordinarily likely to win Wisconsin; he hasn't trailed in a single poll in Wisconsin since the debate, so we know that wasn't a game changer there, and since you're *suddenly* so found of polling %'s, he's already at 50% in Wisconsin. He's far more likely to win Wisconsin based on the polls than Romney is to win any toss-up state on RCP's electoral map, and I mean not even ONE swing state, if you're applying your polling reasoning logically for both candidates (wait, look who I'm talking to).

All I have to do to prove your statement incorrect is to point out Florida, that is a toss up state and Romney is more likely to win that one than to lose it (based on polls).

Because based on the same reasoning you're using for Wisconsin, you can't possibly give Florida or Virginia to Romney based on the same...exact...logic.

Good lord you're dense. I was showing a possible pathway WITHOUT Ohio, thats it. I was using the assumptions that Florida, Virginia were going Red. Suffolk polling thinks they are going red. My assumptions aren't ridiculous.

One polling firm that stops polling in Virginia and Florida quite literally means nada, zilch, nichts.

Yeah, they don't know anything about elections, maybe they should consult with your dumb ass.

Besides, Obama is dead even in Virgina, up about half a point despite over a full week of bad press after a bad performance at the debate. That state is nowhere near over.

Yeah, based upon the other polls I wouldn't GIVE it to Romney. I was assuming a victory for Romney based upon what Suffolk was saying simply to show a pathway without Ohio. I wasn't saying it was likely (based upon the polls).

Don't get me wrong though, Romney is going to win the popular vote by around 4 and he is going to get at least 300 electoral votes.

 

[randomrogue]

Yeah, if Romney loses Ohio it makes it much harder for him to win, no shit.

All I have to do to prove your statement incorrect is to point out Florida, that is a toss up state and Romney is more likely to win that one than to lose it (based on polls).

Good lord you're dense. I was showing a possible pathway WITHOUT Ohio, thats it. I was using the assumptions that Florida, Virginia were going Red. Suffolk polling thinks they are going red. My assumptions aren't ridiculous.

Yeah, they don't know anything about elections, maybe they should consult with your dumb ass.

Yeah, based upon the other polls I wouldn't GIVE it to Romney. I was assuming a victory for Romney based upon what Suffolk was saying simply to show a pathway without Ohio. I wasn't saying it was likely (based upon the polls).

Don't get me wrong though, Romney is going to win the popular vote by around 4 and he is going to get at least 300 electoral votes.

How? Did I miss that explanation? What is a probable EC count that gets him to 270 let alone 300? Ohio.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

There is no way on this planet that Romney loses Ohio and wins the election.

Not gonna happen.

 

[buckshot24]

There is no way on this planet that Romney loses Ohio and wins the election.

Not gonna happen.

and I'm the one that doesn't know math?

 

[randomrogue]

and I'm the one that doesn't know math?

Rather than post that how about just showing us how it's done? If it's doable then I could figure it out if I wanted to but if you've already done the work just post it. It's not that big a deal is it?

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

and I'm the one that doesn't know math?

Is it mathematically possible to win? Sure.

Will he do it? Nope.

Most agree the most likely path for Romney, sans Ohio is to win the McCain states plus Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa -- losing New Hampshire, Wisconsin, along with Ohio.

This is the Kerry map from 2004. All Kerry needed to win was Ohio to win the presidency. Without Ohio, there is simply no way Romney will realistically win this given where we are in Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa, and other states that are now solidly blue due to demographic changes.

 

[shortylickens]

Both Obama and Romney are likely to bring more government jobs to Virginia, so its a tossup right now. And they're campaigning like mad. Been getting at least 2, sometimes 3 flyers in the mail every day. Phone calls all the time. They are fighting hard lemme tell ya!

 

[shortylickens]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

He'd have to take ALL the swing states. Not likely unless all the future debates work strongly in his favor, which isnt guaranteed.

 

[Rainsford]

RCP has an average of 1.3 in favor of Obama right now. (although it doesn't look like this one is in that average). If Romney loses Ohio it makes it tough but not impossible.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Romney would need to win Virginia (Looking more likely, Suffolk stopped polling there saying Romney was going to win), Florida (same deal with Suffolk)

He'd be at 257 without Ohio...

He's up in New Hampshire and assuming he wins another 4 EC votes. Now 261

Wisconsin could put him over the top and it looks tight there.

This is without Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan

If he gets Nevada and Iowa he won't need wisconsin. If he gets Pennsylvania he won't need New Hampshire or Wisconsin.

Plenty of pathways to 270 even if he loses Ohio.

That's certainly true, Romney could win the election even if he loses Ohio. The reason Ohio is important though is that the path to 270 for Romney is difficult without Ohio. He would need to keep all the states that lean Romney right now as well as take at least a few states that lean Obama.

 

[First]

Yeah, if Romney loses Ohio it makes it much harder for him to win, no shit.

He's not going to win Ohio. Get used to it.

All I have to do to prove your statement incorrect is to point out Florida, that is a toss up state and Romney is more likely to win that one than to lose it (based on polls).

That's nice, too bad this reply of yours had nothing to do with my comment about your prayer of Wisconsin going to Romney.

But OK, give Florida to Romney. That's not a game changer. On the flip side, Romney similarly isn't likely to win either Ohio or Pennsylvania, which is an even more massive 38 electoral votes to Florida's 29. Obama already starts out with 201 electoral vote lock (being generous and not counting Pennsylvania or Michigan as locks).

Good lord you're dense. I was showing a possible pathway WITHOUT Ohio, thats it. I was using the assumptions that Florida, Virginia were going Red. Suffolk polling thinks they are going red. My assumptions aren't ridiculous.

I'm well aware of what you were doing, and your assumptions were simply weak and shitty. I pointed that out with polls and numbers, which are oddly enough both your friend and enemy when it suits your argument.

Yeah, they don't know anything about elections, maybe they should consult with your dumb ass.

lol, tard. Every major polling firm is active in Virginia. Obama's still up in the RCP averages in Virginia for god sakes. Take a hint kid.

Yeah, based upon the other polls I wouldn't GIVE it to Romney. I was assuming a victory for Romney based upon what Suffolk was saying simply to show a pathway without Ohio. I wasn't saying it was likely (based upon the polls).

Don't get me wrong though, Romney is going to win the popular vote by around 4 and he is going to get at least 300 electoral votes.

[placholder bump]

 

[First]

Rather than post that how about just showing us how it's done? If it's doable then I could figure it out if I wanted to but if you've already done the work just post it. It's not that big a deal is it?

Bump for troll who'll wimp out of answering.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

It's not that hard to construct an EV path for Romney right now, even without Ohio. If he takes FL, VA, CO, NH and NV, he just needs one of WI or IA to win. Not easy, certainly, but not outlandish.

 

[Doppel]

Poll: Obama up 5 points in Ohio



Ohio continues to be terrible news for Romney, with early voting killing him and the debate apparently having no impact, be it due to it generally not mattering and/or the VP debate blunting gains.

Early voting is gaining in popularity, I saw on NPR a great link showing each state and how early one can do it (http://apps.npr.org/early-voting-2012/). It absolutely must blunt the impact of anything that happens in the last few weeks. Maybe that's a good thing maybe not.

Plenty of pathways to 270 even if he loses Ohio.

But none likely.

The impact from the debate is done. Romney made big ground but not enough. Unless he can find some magic beans in the next three weeks and/or humiliate Obama again it's not going to happen for him.

 

[Rainsford]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

He'd have to take ALL the swing states. Not likely unless all the future debates work strongly in his favor, which isnt guaranteed.

A reasonable list of swing states might be Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida totaling 95 electoral votes up for grabs. Of those, Colorado, Virginia and Florida lean Romney (51 EV), while Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and New Hampshire lean Obama (44 EV).

So far that looks pretty evenly matched, but "safe" Obama states comprise 237 electoral votes while safe Romney states have only 206 electoral votes. Romney needs to win 64 of the 95 swing electoral votes to win while Obama only needs 33...or the candidates could dip into the "safe" states from the other side to get electoral votes (Obama could win North Carolina or Romney could win PA, for example), but that doesn't seem super likely.