Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[xBiffx]

Holy fvcking sh*t!!!!

Can we stop with this crap? ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

Popular vote means jaaaaaaaaaaaack sh*t! Stop with this nonsense.

Obama is still WAY ahead.

Repeat after me: five thirty eight. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ just like the second post said.

I know it's more fun to pretend the race is close but it isn't.

Starting to wonder if you get paid to post this garbage. Everyone has seen your numerous post about the five thirty eight site. Get a clue already, no one gives a shit. At least no one in here does anyway.

Plus, many of those calls that site makes are up for debate.

 

[Doppel]

Stop killjoying our party. Here, most of us are pretending that the popular vote is all that matters and that the race is close

Fixed that for you.

Why so butthurt that the electoral college wins elections and that Obama is so wildly ahead?


I'd like a close race, it's fun and I don't really care who wins that much anyway, but stop being dishonest about it. EC, baby. EC. Say it with me.

 

[xBiffx]

Fixed that for you.

Why so butthurt that the electoral college wins elections and that Obama is so wildly ahead?


I'd like a close race, it's fun and I don't really care who wins that much anyway, but stop being dishonest about it. EC, baby. EC. Say it with me.

Me be dishonest? I'm not the one putting words in other people's mouths and pretending that its a "fix".

But I take no issue really with the last post, since it was yourself that you were talking to. You should get that checked out, by a professional.

 

[randomrogue]

Doppel is right though.

 

[buckshot24]

Doppel is right though.

About what? The electoral college? Yeah she/it is right. Romney will win by 4 points and he will win 330 electoral votes. Polls at this point don't mean anything.

Myself, I'm 100% more likely to vote than I am to respond to a poll.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Me be dishonest? I'm not the one putting words in other people's mouths and pretending that its a "fix".

But I take no issue really with the last post, since it was yourself that you were talking to. You should get that checked out, by a professional.

The race is not close, not even after the 1st debate bump Romney got. Doppel is 100% spot on to point your attention to the battleground state polls because that is where the election will be won/lost.

If Romney doesn't win Ohio he loses. His stance on the auto-bailout has all but assured he will not this state. It's been game, set, and match for a long time buddy. It's in the media's interest to keep this story going though so they will.

 

[buckshot24]

http://www.nationalpolls.com/ohio.html

 

[buckshot24]

http://www.nationalpolls.com/florida.html

 

[umbrella39]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[umbrella39]

http://electoral-vote.com/

 

[buckshot24]

http://electoral-vote.com/

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html

 

[buckshot24]

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/florida.html

 

[buckshot24]

Many of the polls in the electoral vote site are from before the debate. Go ahead and pretend that Obama didn't get smoked and that the debate didn't matter if you want.

 

[umbrella39]

Many of the polls in the electoral vote site are from before the debate. Go ahead and pretend that Obama didn't get smoked and that the debate didn't matter if you want.

Who the hell said he didn't get smoked? I wouldn't give my vote to either of these two so I have nothing vested in this competition. Pointing out that Romney does not have the electoral vote by a long shot isn't some fantasy. Feel free to extract your head as soon as you see fit...

 

[buckshot24]

Who the hell said he didn't get smoked? I wouldn't give my vote to either of these two so I have nothing vested in this competition. Pointing out that Romney does not have the electoral vote by a long shot isn't some fantasy. Feel free to extract your head as soon as you see fit...

It's a fantasy because the data you are using (the polls in those states) aren't fresh enough to take into account what happened last Wednesday.

 

[Rainsford]

It's a fantasy because the data you are using (the polls in those states) aren't fresh enough to take into account what happened last Wednesday.

Fivethirtyeight's selection of polls definitely take it into account (as has been stated by the site's author several times), as you can see by the fact that Obama's chances of victory overall and in many states have taken a hit. Here's something that you don't seem to be taking into account though...Romney went into the debates with a significant amount of ground to make up. Did he have a good performance in the debate and did Obama have a terrible one? Absolutely. Was the performance good enough to take back ALL of the lead Obama had on him? It doesn't appear that way so far. There's also the question of whether Romney's increasing electoral chances is a change or a bounce (or more likely a combination of the two).

 

[Rainsford]

Starting to wonder if you get paid to post this garbage. Everyone has seen your numerous post about the five thirty eight site. Get a clue already, no one gives a shit. At least no one in here does anyway.

I feel like they should. Intelligent, fact based analysis of polling data seems like a very interesting thing to discuss when it comes to election predictions. Better than making things up that just sound good at the very least.

Plus, many of those calls that site makes are up for debate.

Could you name some of them? The site has been quite accurate and the methodology seems pretty sound to me, particularly compared to the predictions that mainly seem to involve a doctor, a rubber glove and a flashlight.

 

[buckshot24]

Fivethirtyeight's selection of polls definitely take it into account (as has been stated by the site's author several times), as you can see by the fact that Obama's chances of victory overall and in many states have taken a hit.

I wasn't referring to that site. All I am saying is that the map site has stale data and using it as proof of anything is invalid.

 

[Doppel]

Poor xBiffx.

 

[Rainsford]

I wasn't referring to that site. All I am saying is that the map site has stale data and using it as proof of anything is invalid.

My only point was that fivethirtyeight DOES seem to take newer data into account (I don't know enough to judge whether electoral-vote does) and fivethirtyeight does still show and Obama lead. If we're judging how badly the debate is affecting Obama, that seems like interesting information at the very least

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss pre-debate polls entirely either. Polls only show snapshots in time but what we're all really interested in is who will win in November. To predict that, the trends are at least as important as individual polls. For quite a while now, Obama has had significant (if not gigantic) leads in many polls. Post-debate, Romney ate into that lead by quite a bit. But there's a decent argument to be made that a single event-based change in the polls is less important for predicting the results 4 weeks from now than looking at the general trend over time. It's possible that Romney's debate performance represented a permanent change in the polling trends, but often big event associated changes don't work that way. In either case, the older data is definitely still useful. Accurate polling didn't start Thursday morning, after all.

 

[buckshot24]

My only point was that fivethirtyeight DOES seem to take newer data into account (I don't know enough to judge whether electoral-vote does) and fivethirtyeight does still show and Obama lead. If we're judging how badly the debate is affecting obama, that seems like interesting information at the very least

I don't think the data exists as no polls have been taken since the debate in a bunch of those states. The five thirty eight site doesn't have the data either.

I'm not going to fight over polls, we'll see next month.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Romney's biggest problem is going to be keeping momentum alive. Yes he got a bounce from the debate, but it's extremely doubtful that he's going to hold onto that surge. He has thus far not held onto any meaningful bounce for any meaningful period of time.

Obama, on the other hand, had a major bounce coming out of the DNC and basically has held that up until the 1st debate.

All he has to do is basically show up and not completely suck in the next debate and this race is over. Everyone knows this, even conservatives deep down know this country was never going to elect Romney.

 

[Rainsford]

I don't think the data exists as no polls have been taken since the debate in a bunch of those states. The five thirty eight site doesn't have the data either.

I'm not going to fight over polls, we'll see next month.

We definitely will see, I suppose. I just find polls (and analysis of the polls) interesting from a more technical point of view. The idea that we can, through careful examination of the data, predict the results of an election well before it happens is pretty cool to me. Must be the geek in me.

 

[First]

I wasn't referring to that site. All I am saying is that the map site has stale data and using it as proof of anything is invalid.

As has already been babyfed to you, polls from before the debate are not stale, for numerous reasons. Chief among them;

1. Most who believe Romney won the debate still won't change their vote to Romney, reflected in both the CNN and CBS snap polls taken after the debate.
2. Early voting is already occurring in swing states, and the debates have no effect on people's decisions. Decisions harden by the summer, and summer ended just recently. In a polarized environment like this, Romney (nor Obama, but to a lesser degree) has a partisan ceiling he'll hit.
3. It is a statistical fact that no POTUS has come from behind by 4 points nationally in October. Ever. In all of U.S. history.

Either way we'll all have a good laugh at your expense come election day, so don't be but hurt.

I don't think the data exists as no polls have been taken since the debate in a bunch of those states. The five thirty eight site doesn't have the data either.

I'm not going to fight over polls, we'll see next month.

You can't fight over the polls because you don't understand jack shit about them. There have already been numerous battleground state polls that have come out since the debate; the only thing that has changed is that Obama's in more of a dead heat in the battlegrounds than he was before, with him leading in several polls (some in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa) and Romney leading in others (Florida, some in Virginia)

 

[buckshot24]

As has already been babyfed to you, polls from before the debate are not stale,

Ok what would you prefer? I said stale and you can call them 'not fresh' if you like. Bottom line is that many of the electoral map state polls are from september where Obama was doing much better.

1. Most who believe Romney won the debate still won't change their vote to Romney, reflected in both the CNN and CBS snap polls taken after the debate.

Yet Romney is doing much better after the debate in just about every poll out there. Maybe it wasn't the debate?

2. Early voting is already occurring in swing states, and the debates have no effect on people's decisions. Decisions harden by the summer, and summer ended just recently. In a polarized environment like this, Romney (nor Obama, but to a lesser degree) has a partisan ceiling he'll hit.

Ok great. Most people will vote next month.

3. It is a statistical fact that no POTUS has come from behind by 4 points nationally in October. Ever. In all of U.S. history.

We never had a black president before either. But what polls are you talking about?

Either way we'll all have a good laugh at your expense come election day, so don't be but hurt.

I'll be enjoying myself immensely as all you liberal drones call for voter fraud and the like. I can't wait.

You can't fight over the polls because you don't understand jack shit about them. There have already been numerous battleground state polls that have come out since the debate; the only thing that has changed is that Obama's in more of a dead heat in the battlegrounds than he was before, with him leading in several polls (some in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa) and Romney leading in others (Florida, some in Virginia)

You're whole point boils to the fact that you're assuming that I am predicting a Romney victory because of these new post debate polls. I'm not.

The polls I posted were in response to people acting like the electoral college map was already locked up when in fact Ohio and Florida are basically tied based upon the latest polls. Plus many of the battleground states have well over 10 day old polls, aka stale.